Draft 2021 NHL Draft and Undrafted Free Agent Thread

[UnSandvich]

Edge/Joey, who would you guys say are your top 5 players that have a realistic shot at being available at 15?

 

[Savant]

I know one mock draft had him as a draft "steal". But of course, that probably needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Wallstedt is the best goalie prospect in over a decade. Definitely better than Askarov and certainly no worse than Knight.

 

[Joey Bones]

Agree with all about if Wallstedt is at 15 you have to take him. I could see the Rangers trading the pick but would hope they keep it. There are several Center prospects that should be available with that pick. The only wing I would take a flyer on with our first is the kid from Huntington, Matt Coronato. He played off and on Center with the Chicago Steel and a scouting service I follow stated that he did not look out of place at Center.
With one of our thirds I hope we go for Jayden Gerbbe . Tough two-way Center for the Red Deer Rebels. Was hurt most of this year so he could fall as far as the fourth round.

I don't like Coronato at all...

 

[Joey Bones]

Edge/Joey, who would you guys say are your top 5 players that have a realistic shot at being available at 15?

There is going to be so much maneuvering this draft, there could be so many different scenarios as to who could be at No. 15.

I truly think Wallstedt is gonna go way before their pick, McTavish will most likely move up too. Think Lysell, Lucius and Sillinger will go just before their picks (not huge on Sillinger)...

1. Nikita Chibrikov
2. Aatu Raty
3. Francesco Pinelli
4. Fedor Svechkov
5A/B. Carson Lambos/Corson Cuelemans

You could probably switch those names around and I'd be fine with it. Olausson and Othmann are reaches I wouldn't mind their, either. There's others that I can't think of, ATM. Idk, I think a lot is going to happen. Do the Rangers even make this selection? Do they trade back? Or up move even? Lot of unknowns...

 

[Joey Bones]

I'm also expecting some team to reach for someone in the top 10. Clarke has been dropping in the consensus, so has Lambos. We'll see...

 

[Clark Kellogg]

I don't like Coronato at all...

Other than I believe he’s a fan of another NY team what don’t you like?

 

[Edge]

I know one mock draft had him as a draft "steal". But of course, that probably needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Taking a goalie tends to spark some very passionate debate. And that makes perfect sense --- goalies are like volatile stocks.

I will tell you that as a general school of thought, for hockey, my career, my personal life, etc., I've never been one for hard and fast rules. I think there guidelines, or guiding principles, but there are very few things for which I believe there are steadfast commandments.

As a general rule I don't like taking goalies in the first round. But there are exceptions. In this case, Wallstedt is, at worst, among the very best goalie prospects we've seen in the past 10 years. At best, he might be the crème de la crème.

Would I take him at 5 with some of the expected names on the board? No, that would be tough. Is he a candidate at 15? Yes, I'd consider him there. And that consideration increases depending on who comes off the board and who is left.

Would that necessarily apply if I was picking 15th in 2018, 2019 or 2020? Probably not. But 2021 is different than those drafts. I don't know if I see an Alex Newhook sitting on the board, or a Dawson Mercer or a Braden Schneider, or a K'Andre Miller.

I think there's going to be some tempting talent on the board at 15, and hopefully a few centers. But I can't rule out Wallstedt as an option or dismiss that the team had expressed some interest in him in the past.

 

[Joey Bones]

Wallstedt is the best goalie prospect in over a decade. Definitely better than Askarov and certainly no worse than Knight.

I saw these guys like this on their draft years...

Knight (slightly better than the other 1st round goalie picks within 2010-2019 that aren't named Vasilevskiy)
Askarov (Almost on par in stat similarities to Vasilevskiy. Will he be a clone in the NHL?)
Wallstedt (Could push to be the No. 1 pick and has been the best keeper, pre-draft, since no one really? Price, maybe. He's been playing pro since he was 16/17).

Vasilevskiy wasn't even playing pro hockey at the same age that Wallstedt has...

 

[jay from jersey]

Taking a goalie tends to spark some very passionate debate. And that makes perfect sense --- goalies are like volatile stocks.

I will tell you that as a general school of thought, for hockey, my career, my personal life, etc., I've never been one for hard and fast rules. I think their guidelines, or guiding principles, but there are very few things for which I believe there are steadfast commandments.

As a general rule I don't like taking goalies in the first round. But there are exceptions. In this case, Wallstedt is at worst among the very best goalie prospects we've seen in the past 10 years. At best, he might be the crème de la crème.

Would I take him at 5 with some of the expected names on the board? No, that would be tough. Is he a candidate at 15? Yes, I'd consider him there. And that consideration increases depending on who comes off the board and who is left.

Would that necessarily apply if I was picking 15th in 2018, 2019 or 2020? Probably not. But 2021 is different than those drafts. I don't know if I see an Alex Newhook sitting on the board, or a Dawson Mercer or a Braden Schneider, or a K'Andre Miller.

I think there's going to be some tempting talent on the board at 15, and hopefully a few centers. But I can't rule out Wallstedt as an option or dismiss that the team had expressed some interest in him in the past.

it would certainly be a wise move to have some insurance / better option then giving shesty a giant deal after this one. Spending 8,9,10 mill on a goalie isn’t the way to go in a cap league. We have lived thru it first hand. I expect shesty to sign a deal in the neighborhood of Demkos. Maybe 5 or 6 years and 5.5-6 million per.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

There is going to be so much maneuvering this draft, there could be so many different scenarios as to who could be at No. 15.

I truly think Wallstedt is gonna go way before their pick, McTavish will most likely move up too. Think Lysell, Lucius and Sillinger will go just before their picks (not huge on Sillinger)...

1. Nikita Chibrikov
2. Aatu Raty
3. Francesco Pinelli
4. Fedor Svechkov
5A/B. Carson Lambos/Corson Cuelemans

You could probably switch those names around and I'd be fine with it. Olausson and Othmann are reaches I wouldn't mind their, either. There's others that I can't think of, ATM. Idk, I think a lot is going to happen. Do the Rangers even make this selection? Do they trade back? Or up move even? Lot of unknowns...

My top-5 looks similar.

1. Svechkov: Best 2-way center in the draft IMO. I played defense in rugby so I tend to focus more on 2-way forwards because of it, but Svechkov really screams Lundell to me. He has all the tools but the defensive game gets so much praise that his offense seems to go unnoticed.

2. Räty: Yeah, he fell in the rankings but pure upside, he's a good pick at 15. I don't think they go for him personally, but assuming the likely suspects are gone at 15, this kid should be a candidate

3. Stankoven: Plays in the WHL. Really should go higher than 30-ish where I see him ranked. Not that we need another winger, but purely based on what I've seen, he's a good candidate

4. Chibrikov: Will play with Svechkov for SKA. It'll be fun to see these 2 together. Another winger, but he really hits that next gear when the lights shine brightest.

5. Roulette: Bit of a wildcard this high in the draft but Conner Roulette is a kid who surprised a lot of people in the WHL. Great skater, which is probably what the Rangers should be looking for at the very least in the draft.

 

[Joey Bones]

Other than I believe he’s a fan of another NY team what don’t you like?

I wrote this back on page 20...

Matt Coronato

Not sure how he has so many points on the year... very lackluster prospect. He tries to play a power forward game but isn't that strong under pressure. He'll battle in the boards but won't make a hit. He also will shy away from taking a hit, too, almost like he's playing scared. His passes seem to be off the mark and shooting choices get blocked quite easily. When his shots do get off, though, they are heavy and lethal. He has very good straight-line skating ability, but it diminishes with inconsistent edges. Stands around a lot of the time or glides into zones, too. He also has this weird hunch when he skates, almost Lucic looking. Bending from the back won't gain momentum on your edges or stride. Not much motor at all. I would guess that any potential he has will be in the power-forward game, but I honestly don't see him making it in the NHL.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

I wrote this back on page 20...

Matt Coronato

Not sure how he has so many points on the year... very lackluster prospect. He tries to play a power forward game but isn't that strong under pressure. He'll battle in the boards but won't make a hit. He also will shy away from taking a hit, too, almost like he's playing scared. His passes seem to be off the mark and shooting choices get blocked quite easily. When his shots do get off, though, they are heavy and lethal. He has very good straight-line skating ability, but it diminishes with inconsistent edges. Stands around a lot of the time or glides into zones, too. He also has this weird hunch when he skates, almost Lucic looking. Bending from the back won't gain momentum on your edges or stride. Not much motor at all. I would guess that any potential he has will be in the power-forward game, but I honestly don't see him making it in the NHL.

Now I don’t like him either.

 

[Joey Bones]

Now I don’t like him either.

Don't get me wrong, this is just my opinion. He could very well carve out a great career in the NHL, but on my viewings of him this year I didn't like what I saw.

 

[Edge]

Edge/Joey, who would you guys say are your top 5 players that have a realistic shot at being available at 15?

I'll go strictly off Bob McKenzie's list of guys who are still on the board at 15:

1. Francesco Pinelli - I think this is a kid who is starting to put the raw elements together. He checks a number of boxes across the board very well, has keen offensive instincts and the physical tools to potentially make an impact in the NHL, and he plays a two-way game that should have him stick at center. He's the cross section pick for me in the sense that he's in the discussion for BPA at the spot and he happens to fit a team need.

2. Nikita Chibrikov - I think this kid is absolutely electric. He creates and generates offense at high speeds and he looks like a kid who has the potential to generate fear in NHL defensemen. He doesn't have the raw physical tools of the other options on this list and he's yet another winger, but I can't not include him on my list.

3. Fedor Svechkov - There's some different opinions on the offensive upside, but no one disagrees that this is a kid who looks like he has a future as a pro player. The offensive upside questions come from the belief that while has a lot of good to very good skills, they don't necessarily stand-out as being great. But he's such an unbelievably smart player, you have to wonder if he just makes them work anyway.

4. Aatu Raty - Full disclosure I was never someone who saw Raty as a top tier prospect, so his fall for me isn't quite as dramatic as it is for others. If I'm being honest, his inclusion here is based more on hope/the belief of what he could do rather than necessarily what he has done. At the very least he has third line potential, the question is whether or not he can put it all together and really reward you with a top-six mainstay who compliments star players.

5. Coronato - Probably the guy Joey and I are furthest apart on. I really like the compete level and how he uses his various tools to beat the competition. He can put the puck where he wants, or just as easily set up a play for someone else. Reminds me a lot of Kyle Palmieri at the same age. The challenge is that he's so much better than his competition. He looks like a college player already playing against talent a tier or two below him. So does that carry over to the next level, or does he look this good because of the competition? If you believe the latter, there are few players who can match his ceiling at this spot.

 

[Synergy27]

I think analytics say that faceoffs don’t drive possession.

However, and this is my analysis, they drive important f***ing goals.

This is so clearly a limitation of the analytics in question. How illogical is it that a play that definitionally awards possession to one team or the other doesn’t “drive possession”.

Now, I agree that over the long run, there is very little tangible difference between a 51% FO team and a 49% FO team. But, there definitely starts to be a tangible difference the further away from
50/50 you get, and the Rangers have been in the low to mid 40s for awhile now.

Also, it is simply common sense that having a very good FO man is critically important for defensive zone draws in close games, especially in playoff games that are almost always close. Successful teams absolutely need a couple of highly reliable FO men, analytics be damned.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

This is so clearly a limitation of the analytics in question. How illogical is it that a play that definitionally awards possession to one team or the other doesn’t “drive possession”.

Now, I agree that over the long run, there is very little tangible difference between a 51% FO team and a 49% FO team. But, there definitely starts to be a tangible difference the further away from
50/50 you get, and the Rangers have been in the low to mid 40s for awhile now.

Also, it is simply common sense that having a very good FO man is critically important for defensive zone draws in close games, especially in playoff games that are almost always close. Successful teams absolutely need a couple of highly reliable FO men, analytics be damned.

This is a misconception, no one actually say this. The argument as I understand it is that there are a large # of possession changes each game, of which the game's faceoffs are just one component. And in aggregate being a better faceoff team is not correlated with being a better possession team, based on historical results.

All things being equal, yes having Cs better at faceoffs is better. And in individual instances, faceoffs can REALLY matter. But over the long haul it's not worth it to select for faceoffs at the expense of the rest of the things that go into generating possession.

 

[Bluenote13]

I'll go strictly off Bob McKenzie's list of guys who are still on the board at 15:

1. Francesco Pinelli - I think this is a kid who is starting to put the raw elements together. He checks a number of boxes across the board very well, has keen offensive instincts and the physical tools to potentially make an impact in the NHL, and he plays a two-way game that should have him stick at center. He's the cross section pick for me in the sense that he's in the discussion for BPA at the spot and he happens to fit a team need.

2. Nikita Chibrikov - I think this kid is absolutely electric. He creates and generates offense at high speeds and he looks like a kid who has the potential to generate fear in NHL defensemen. He doesn't have the raw physical tools of the other options on this list and he's yet another winger, but I can't not include him on my list.

3. Fedor Svechkov - There's some different opinions on the offensive upside, but no one disagrees that this is a kid who looks like he has a future as a pro player. The offensive upside questions come from the belief that while has a lot of good to very good skills, they don't necessarily stand-out as being great. But he's such an unbelievably smart player, you have to wonder if he just makes them work anyone.

4. Aatu Raty - Full disclosure I was never someone who saw Raty as a top tier prospect, so his fall for me isn't quite as dramatic as it is for others. If I'm being honest, his inclusion here is based more on hope/the belief of what he could do rather than necessarily what he has done. At the very least he has third line potential, the question is whether or not he can put it all together and really reward you with a top-six mainstay who compliments star players.

5. Coronato - Probably the guy Joey and I are furthest apart on. I really like the compete level and how he uses his various tools to beat the competition. He can put the puck where he wants, or just as easily set up a play for someone else. Reminds me a lot of Kyle Palmieri at the same age. The challenge is that he's so much better than his competition. He looks like a college player already playing against talent a tier or two below him. So does that carry over to the next level, or does he look this good because of the competition? If you believe the latter, there are few players who can match his ceiling at this spot.

Good list, I'd be happy with almost any of them, though I'd sub Raty with Wallstedt, who I'm not sure where Bob has him going.

Also not a huge fan of Coronato, though I think Joey goes a bit far. Palmieri is a great comp, good call. I just don't know if I'd gamble on him putting all the pieces together.

 

[Edge]

Good list, I'd be happy with almost any of them, though I'd sub Raty with Wallstedt, who I'm not sure where Bob has him going.

Also not a huge fan of Coronato, though I think Joey goes a bit far. Palmieri is a great comp, good call. I just don't know if I'd gamble on him putting all the pieces together.

I think Bob's survey had him at 10.

Coronato is a tough case because he was so much better than his competition. Unlike some of the other names on the list, who went up against men, Coronato was playing against kids --- many of whom were younger than him. I put him here because I look at some of the other names, and while some have higher floors, I didn't know if there was anyone who jumped out as having as high of a ceiling or higher.

 

[Synergy27]

This is a misconception, no one actually say this. The argument as I understand it is that there are a large # of possession changes each game, of which the game's faceoffs are just one component. And in aggregate being a better faceoff team is not correlated with being a better possession team, based on historical results.

All things being equal, yes having Cs better at faceoffs is better. And in individual instances, faceoffs can REALLY matter. But over the long haul it's not worth it to select for faceoffs at the expense of the rest of the things that go into generating possession.

I’m fine with the aggregate analysis. It makes sense. I am also pretty sure that most teams operate in that 48-52 area where this truly doesn’t matter. I have not done the math myself, but I am confident that the aggregate analysis breaks down once you get to a marginal success rate. 45% or lower, somewhere around there.

If your team wins 43% of their faceoffs, they have a 7% possession deficit to makeup for right off the bat. That starts to get hard no matter how good your players are in other aspects of the game.

 

[Savant]

I would be curious if there was a metric that measured %faceoff won in important game situations. This would matter to me more than overall faceoff%. What to see who shows up on defensive zone faceoffs during the third period of tie games

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I would be curious if there was a metric that measured %faceoff won in important game situations. This would matter to me more than overall faceoff%. What to see who shows up on defensive zone faceoffs during the third period of tie games

This website allows you to filter on zones, situations and location (home vs away). Maybe that helps?

https://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?zone=def

 

[Savant]

This website allows you to filter on zones, situations and location (home vs away). Maybe that helps?

Face-off stats- 2020-21 regular season - 2020 - defensive zone - Puckbase

I’ll check it out. Maybe I invent it myself and latch onto a front office because analytics

statboy savant

 

[jay from jersey]

Taking a goalie tends to spark some very passionate debate. And that makes perfect sense --- goalies are like volatile stocks.

I will tell you that as a general school of thought, for hockey, my career, my personal life, etc., I've never been one for hard and fast rules. I think their guidelines, or guiding principles, but there are very few things for which I believe there are steadfast commandments.

As a general rule I don't like taking goalies in the first round. But there are exceptions. In this case, Wallstedt is at worst among the very best goalie prospects we've seen in the past 10 years. At best, he might be the crème de la crème.

Would I take him at 5 with some of the expected names on the board? No, that would be tough. Is he a candidate at 15? Yes, I'd consider him there. And that consideration increases depending on who comes off the board and who is left.

Would that necessarily apply if I was picking 15th in 2018, 2019 or 2020? Probably not. But 2021 is different than those drafts. I don't know if I see an Alex Newhook sitting on the board, or a Dawson Mercer or a Braden Schneider, or a K'Andre Miller.

I think there's going to be some tempting talent on the board at 15, and hopefully a few centers. But I can't rule out Wallstedt as an option or dismiss that the team had expressed some interest in him in the past.

it would certainly be a wise move to have some insurance in case of injury or something long term that keeps shesty out as well

 

[Synergy27]

Particularly with how injury prone he has “looked” so far.

 

[bl02]

I'm actually getting excited about this draft. It looks more and more like a decent center will be available without having to reach.
Especially if the two goalies go before us (thinking at least one is most likely). Svechkov, Pinelli, Raty maybe even someone with offensive upside like Sillinger drops. It's now is up to our scouts to make the right decision.

How do you guys feel about Raty's skating. How would you compare it to Lundell's?