Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[Peasy]

If he straight up tells you hes never going to sign then you obviously just trade him. Fox fetched 2 2nds. Think you could get more than that for Knies (even though Fox became a norris level D, wasnt viewed as that at the time).

 

[Legion34]

Just a hypothetical ... if he refuses to sign after the Frozen Four, do you trade his rights?

Or, go the distance and hope he signs after his college career is over?

Not doom-and-gloom, just contingency planning.

Hey it's a discussion board ...

I would. We need to be a place players want to come and be happy here.

He asked for 1 more year. If he doesn’t want to come now then it’s a concern.

Let him go somewhere else. Don’t lose him for nothing.
If he gets to his last year. It’s typically a 3rd for rights

 

[kb]

He would have to play another 2 full seasons in the NCAA to get to UFA status from what I understand.

Seems unlikely.

Yep. August 2025 is the earliest he can go UFA. And his NCAA team is losing about half their players (mostly high end players) once this season ends, including most of the D.

Doubtful he will play that out under any circumstances.....makes no sense for him to give up 2 years of NHL pay.

 

[Leafs87]

Actually they might overpay his on ice value due to his marketing value.

Leafs don't need to market anything Coyotes do.

If they land 2nd overall, I’d be down for a Fantili Matthews swap if Matthews wants to be overpaid or wants out. I don’t want to see anymore of these depthless teams

 

[kb]

If they land 2nd overall, I’d be down for a Fantili Matthews swap if Matthews wants to be overpaid or wants out. I don’t want to see anymore of these depthless teams

Trade Matthews for arguably the next Quinton Byfield?

Please, where do I sign?

 

[ULF_55]

He would have to play another 2 full seasons in the NCAA to get to UFA status from what I understand.

Seems unlikely.

He wanted to win a championship, or he wasn't ready, and that's why he stayed in school?
Does his intention change if they don't win this year?
Do the two rookies stay, Cooley and Snuggerud in school?

Clarity Friday or Sunday?

 

[LeafChief]

He wanted to win a championship, or he wasn't ready, and that's why he stayed in school?
Does his intention change if they don't win this year?
Do the two rookies stay, Cooley and Snuggerud in school?
View attachment 680442

View attachment 680443

Clarity Friday or Sunday?

A significant portion of their team is going pro.

They won't be close to the team they were this year, next year. Faber, Lacombe and Johnson are all going pro. Their D will likely be led by Koster (great opportunity for him).

I'd say there is a less than 5% chance he goes back to school.

 

[Stephen]

Interesting discussion.

When Leafs traded a former 1st in Sandin who is already a successful NHLer for a future 1st or mystery box as per this discussion that is considered a good move,

However when you trade a former 2nd rounder Knies yet to play a single game in the NHL for a suggested high 1st rounder capitalizing on his potential in the trade that is a bad mystery boat move.

The potential of a player drafted in the top 10 (Arizona pick) would be considered higher than a former mid 2nd rounder.

If a Top 5 pick in the 2023 draft was offered up for Matthew Knies, I would gladly accept, just based on what is in the draft. The picture gets a little murkier the farther back you go. A Top 10 wouldn't be a slam dunk for me. But I wouldn't move him for a mid first rounder like Kasperi Kapanen, for example.

 

[Stephen]

He would have to play another 2 full seasons in the NCAA to get to UFA status from what I understand.

Seems unlikely.

I find it hard to believe someone would walk away from 2x years of NHL ELC money and bonuses because they want to call their shots and stay the hell away from Toronto. We're not Calgary.

 

[leafan11]

The level of discussion on this thread has gotten real stupid. He’s good friends with AM , why wouldn’t he want to sign?

 

[Dekes For Days]

When Leafs traded a former 1st in Sandin who is already a successful NHLer for a future 1st or mystery box as per this discussion that is considered a good move,
However when you trade a former 2nd rounder Knies yet to play a single game in the NHL for a suggested high 1st rounder capitalizing on his potential in the trade that is a bad mystery boat move.

Leafs traded Sandin when he was 23, we had already extracted most of his cheapest years, there were contract/role disagreements, and we had replacements for him that made him blocked for the foreseeable future. That's obviously very different from trading a 20 year old top-tier prospect in a position of relative weakness before he even plays in the NHL.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He wanted to win a championship, or he wasn't ready, and that's why he stayed in school?
Does his intention change if they don't win this year?
Do the two rookies stay, Cooley and Snuggerud in school?
View attachment 680442

View attachment 680443

Clarity Friday or Sunday?

Cooley is gone 100%. Snuggerud likely goes if Cooley and Knies go. They are also going to lose most of their defense and their starting goalie is a senior. He came back this year because he knew the team was absolutely loaded for one year to make a run at it. He will be signed by next weekend.

 

[Menzinger]

He wanted to win a championship, or he wasn't ready, and that's why he stayed in school?
Does his intention change if they don't win this year?
Do the two rookies stay, Cooley and Snuggerud in school?
View attachment 680442

View attachment 680443

Clarity Friday or Sunday?

He wasn't ready, and from interviews/a couple media profiles on him he seemed more comfortable staying in a consistent environment to round out his game (plus the drive to win the national championship likely another factor).

Gophers will likely lose a few of their top guys to NHL teams, I wouldn't be concerned about him not signing.

 

[ULF_55]

I find it hard to believe someone would walk away from 2x years of NHL ELC money and bonuses because they want to call their shots and stay the hell away from Toronto. We're not Calgary.

Yep, $850k*2, is pretty nice for a 20 year old.

Mind you $75k*2, might not be equal in value to 2*complete scholarship years if he's in the minors.

Kind of like do you buy flood insurance where there are no rivers, lakes, oceans or rain?


Regardless he's limited to ELC whenever he signs.

 

[justashadowof]

When Adam Fox snubbed Calgary, they were a 1st place team. And Carolina was also a playoff team. We can't read the minds of these guys. I also remember Blake Wheeler snubbing the Coyotes who were actually a decent bubble team at the time.

Personally I hate that some drafted players have this option of turning themselves into UFAs in a matter of a few months of waiting. It's not that on principle I'm against players being able to direct where they get to sign. It's that it should be all of them can do it or none of them can do it.

 

[ULF_55]

When Adam Fox snubbed Calgary, they were a 1st place team. And Carolina was also a playoff team. We can't read the minds of these guys. I also remember Blake Wheeler snubbing the Coyotes who were actually a decent bubble team at the time.

Personally I hate that some drafted players have this option of turning themselves into UFAs in a matter of a few months of waiting. It's not that on principle I'm against players being able to direct where they get to sign. It's that it should be all of them can do it or none of them can do it.

Don't juniors go through the draft twice and then not sign after 2 years and become UFA?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

If he has no plans on signing, I'd trade him, maybe we get a 3rd for him. I never liked the own rental thing or losing prospects for nothing.

Not that there has been any signs of him not wanting to be a Leaf but if that were the case, we would get a way better pick for him than a 3rd. He's a rare type of prospect this day and age and there would be a lot of teams lining up for him if he was available. Someone would give us more than a 3rd.

 

[VanW27]

When Adam Fox snubbed Calgary, they were a 1st place team. And Carolina was also a playoff team. We can't read the minds of these guys. I also remember Blake Wheeler snubbing the Coyotes who were actually a decent bubble team at the time.

Personally I hate that some drafted players have this option of turning themselves into UFAs in a matter of a few months of waiting. It's not that on principle I'm against players being able to direct where they get to sign. It's that it should be all of them can do it or none of them can do it.

All of them can, it's just more common for NCAA guys since it's a 4 year wait. CHL guys need somewhere to move on to before 4 years go by.

 

[The Iceman]

If they land 2nd overall, I’d be down for a Fantili Matthews swap if Matthews wants to be overpaid or wants out. I don’t want to see anymore of these depthless teams

You would be fired as the GM before the ink dried on that trade.
And for good measure never allowed to run as much as an AHL team again.

You could get 5-1st round picks for Matthews including #2 overall.

 

[Mess]

If a Top 5 pick in the 2023 draft was offered up for Matthew Knies, I would gladly accept, just based on what is in the draft. The picture gets a little murkier the farther back you go. A Top 10 wouldn't be a slam dunk for me. But I wouldn't move him for a mid first rounder like Kasperi Kapanen, for example.

Agreed

As much as like Knies myself, you would have to consider a top 10 pick in the draft for a yet untested NHLer. IMO

 

[RoadWarrior]

You would be fired as the GM before the ink dried on that trade.
And for good measure never allowed to run as much as an AHL team again.

You could get 5-1st round picks for Matthews including #2 overall.

Not with only a year left on Matthews contract you won’t. Try 3 firsts and a top six forward.

 

[Menzinger]

When Adam Fox snubbed Calgary, they were a 1st place team. And Carolina was also a playoff team. We can't read the minds of these guys. I also remember Blake Wheeler snubbing the Coyotes who were actually a decent bubble team at the time.

Personally I hate that some drafted players have this option of turning themselves into UFAs in a matter of a few months of waiting. It's not that on principle I'm against players being able to direct where they get to sign. It's that it should be all of them can do it or none of them can do it.

They can all do it. The difference is that guys in juniors can only stay in the league for a shorter amount of time which opens up the need for a contract earlier, while an NCAA can stay through their early 20s if need be.

I find it hard to believe someone would walk away from 2x years of NHL ELC money and bonuses because they want to call their shots and stay the hell away from Toronto. We're not Calgary.

It also almost never happens to guys who are expected to jump into the NHL so soon. The guys who don't sign elcs tend to be slower developers.

 

[LeafSteel]

Cooley is gone 100%. Snuggerud likely goes if Cooley and Knies go. They are also going to lose most of their defense and their starting goalie is a senior. He came back this year because he knew the team was absolutely loaded for one year to make a run at it. He will be signed by next weekend.

What's with the rational, common sense, factual post here?

You surely can't be from around these parts, as this isn't how we like to do things here.

Rather, we need to dwell and agonize on the least likely possible scenarios, and argue to no end over them.....

Kidding aside, good post. Thanks for bringing some forgotten perspective. Looking forward to seeing what we have in this kid.

 

[Funk21]

Trade Matthews for arguably the next Quinton Byfield?

Please, where do I sign?

While he has had a rocky start to his NHL career, he has actually been pretty solid once he has come back this year. I suspect he progresses next year and pulls a Tage Thompson the following. Development is not always linear. I thought Stutzle was the better prospect personally and so far has been but I suspect Byfield will close that gap.

 

[hamzarocks]

If knies does not sign after the NCAA tourney wraps up and we get doubtful vibes it is time to package him to the blues

Knies + 2024 1st/2023 1st (Boston) for pavel buchnevich

Buch is a ~ppg winger with 2 more years of term and has a solid defensive game (think he PKs heavily for the blues).

Knies would be super attractive to the blues due to his style fitting their traditional preferred game along with them having Knies NCAA linemate (and elite prospect himself) in Jimmy Snuggerud