Salary Cap: 2021/22 Season 81.5M AAV CAP Leafs

[Dreakmur]

If you were actually a coach, you would know that it's not nearly that simple.

I've been coaching since 1999.

Circumstances influence value. I suppose I'll give a recent example. Last season, my team had only 1 right handed forward. That fact alone made that one player more valuable than he otherwise would have been.

 

[TMLegend]

Anderson is younger, and had a proven 27 goal under his belt after his 3rd NHL season. He was also given a contract that was widly critiqued as being an overpayment. I'm not sure this works well as a baseline for Hymans new deal as well as you suggest. Hayes also has better career offensive numbers.

Hyman certainly has the opportunity to try and chase bigger dollars in free agency, but I'd be surprised if he opts to do that

Last 3 seasons

Hyman 0.65ppg
Hayes 0.69ppg
Hayes(3 prior years to ufa contract) 0.66ppg

 

[Dekes For Days]

I've been coaching since 1999.

If that were true, then you should know it's not that simple.

 

[Dreakmur]

If that were true, then you should know it's not that simple.

Was my example to complicated? I thought I picked a simple one. Maybe not.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Was my example to complicated?

Nope, just wrong and irrelevant to the discussion.

 

[Dreakmur]

Nope, just wrong and irrelevant to the discussion.

I'm not even sure we're having the same discussion.

If you're not even willing to acknowledge that circumstances influence value, there really is no point in even continuing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm not even sure we're having the same discussion.

Well, in case you missed it, you claimed that Hyman was more valuable than Tavares and Nylander, while providing zero substantiation of that claim. When it was countered, you had no argument so you appealed to authority after you randomly tied one action to the arbitrary meaning you wanted, based on nothing, and then you jumped straight to claiming yourself to be an authority when that didn't work.

 

[seanlinden]

2021 Hyman is easily more valuable than 2021 Nylander. Obviously in the past and most likely in the future 88 will outplay/outproduce and be more valuable than 11, but this year so far Hyman has been too good. Keefe builds matchups/plays around Hyman. He has his set plays on the PK, he makes sure the Hyman line is matched versus the best players (as we saw vs EDM for most of the series)

Nylander playing with Kerfoot/Mikheyev/Engvall is not a guy who will produce while being able to go up against Mcdavid.

Hyman has done that this year and has been excellent in which ever role Keefe has had him play

Hyman's only flaw is age. If he was 25 you build around him over Nylander, but he's near 30 and giving him fat and the long-term deal is just too risky at this point.

Hyman is our 3rd most valuable player this year (if Campbell keeps it up over a longer time period he moves past him). I don't see Hyman walking from the team, he'll come back around 4-4.5 on 4 year deal similar to Tyler Toffoli

Yes, he probably is... as another poster mentioned, if you only have 1 right handed forward, he may not be your best player, but his "importance" is going to be higher than his "skill set".

Hyman is the team's 5th best forward. It really isn't a debate.

He is however, unequivocally more important to us right now than William Nylander, and potentially more important than John Tavares. That's because he does things that the other 4 do not (forecheck, win puck battles, go to the dirty areas, "deflect" to his more skilled linemates. If we were a team full of Zach Hyman's and 1 William Nylander -- then William Nylander would be far more important.

As for what his contract should be -- contracts are generally based on what players and teams think they can get... so you deflect to comparables.

-Brendan Gallager makes $6.5m. He signed that coming off 2 seasons where he scored 30 goals, the most recent one where he was pacing at 30 goals, and has led the team in goalscoring for the past 3 seasons. Prior to this year, Hyman has had 2 consecutive years with 20+; but don't forget that 6 of his 21 in in 18-19 and 4 of his 21 in 19-20 went into empty nets. Gallagher has performed offensively while being Montreal's most impactful player offensively. The eye test tells you that Hyman's production goes based on his linemates creativity and attention-seeking ability. Gallagher is also a pest which Hyman is not.

-Ryan Dzingel 2 years at $3.375m. Couple of 20 goal seasons (including 22 in 57) in a perfect situation for him. He's an all around player as well.

 

[Matthews4Calder]

Said it when Nylander, Marner and Matthews signed Dubas screwed this team. No way these guys coming off their ELC needed to be paid what they did and with the terms. Great players but when I see other teams signing starts for less and I understand taxes etc come into play but all it did was having us sign scrubs, cast-offs from other teams to fill the gaps. Matthews can't traded he's the star on this team. Tavares aint going anywhere with that contract so leaves Nylander or Marner to go if anyone gets traded. If you include Reilly in the core said this on another site. He's not a #1 defensemen. Good offensively defensively never liked his game. He's got no shot so not the best guy quarterbacking the PP. Also he's going to command more than 5 million which is what he's getting paid now so my thinking trade him before he becomes a free agent and we lose him for nothing. My opinion trade Nylander and/or Reilly. 7, 5 or 12 million freed up. As good as this team is still some holes and I think it's still lacking more grit which come playoff time is what we need.

 

[Dreakmur]

I suppose I should thank you for this. For the first time in my life, I am actually glad I experimented with drugs in my youth. At the time, I didn't enjoy the experience of watching a beer bottle turn into a thousand talking spiders, but that's probably the only thing that could have prepared me to read this demented version of Coles Notes.

Well, in case you missed it, you claimed that Hyman was more valuable than Tavares and Nylander

I said that and I believe it.

That doesn't mean I think he's a better player. It just means I think he's more valuable to the Leafs.

while providing zero substantiation of that claim.

I explained that he brings a unique skillset that the team lacks through the line-up.

When it was countered, you had no argument

I stated that circumstances impact the value of things. The better thing isn't necessarily more valuable in all situations.

so you appealed to authority

I mentioned that Sheldon Keefe agrees with me, since Zack Hyman is 3rd in ice time

after you randomly tied one action to the arbitrary meaning you wanted

I tied player usage to value.

Just think about that logically - If a coach is trying to win, he's going to put the players he thinks will win the game for him more. I know I'm making a huge leap here, but I think the players that that will win the game are more valuable.

based on nothing

Based on 20+ years of coaching experience.

and then you jumped straight to claiming yourself to be an authority when that didn't work.

I explained why I held my opinion, and gave examples.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It just means I think he's more valuable to the Leafs.

Except you have supported that with absolutely nothing. You have merely made up unsubstantiated claims about what the coach thinks based on an insignificant difference in an unrelated metric (which you simultaneously dismissed when it didn't suit your perception), and falsely claimed to be an authority yourself.

 

[Dreakmur]

Except you have supported that with absolutely nothing. You have merely made up unsubstantiated claims about what the coach thinks based on an insignificant difference in an unrelated metric (which you simultaneously dismissed when it didn't suit your perception), and falsely claimed to be an authority yourself.

If you want to believe ice time has no relation to a coach's opinion on a player's value to the team, go right ahead.

I just hope Hyman resigns and we don't have to find out next year just how valuable he really was.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you want to believe ice time has no relation to a coach's opinion on a player's value to the team, go right ahead.

I didn't say no relation. I said not the 100% perfect relation you're attempting to paint it as.

I just hope Hyman resigns and we don't have to find out next year just how valuable he really was.

Everybody knows he's valuable to the team. I see no reason to think he won't re-sign. But we'll be fine either way.

 

[Dreakmur]

I didn't say no relation. I said not the 100% perfect relation you're attempting to paint it as.

I'm not attempting to paint it as a 100% perfect relation. You're just trying to build a strawman so you can feel like you won an argument today.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm not attempting to paint it as a 100% perfect relation.

Except you kind of are when you're making wild claims exclusively off of fairly negligible time differences, with no consideration for the context behind those numbers, or the value the players bring within their respective time.

 

[Dreakmur]

Except you kind of are when you're making wild claims exclusively off of fairly negligible time differences

You think 10- 20% differences are negligible?

The four second different between Thornton and Kerfoot is negligible. I'd even agree that the 26 second difference between Thornton and Mikheyev is negligible.

Hyman plays over a minute and a half more than Tavares and over three minutes more than Nylander. That is not negligible.

with no consideration for the context behind those numbers, or the value the players bring within their respective time.

I think the context behind the numbers is the same context that determines value. Hyman does a lot things that Nylander doesn't do, and no other player does. That's why he plays more, and that's also why I think he's more valuable. Nylander does things that Hyman doesn't do too, but Marner does them too.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You think 10- 20% differences are negligible?

To make the claims you are exclusively based off of it, yes, and you're exaggerating the differences, which are almost entirely on the PK (where his impact would be limited), and ignoring the factors that influence that metric, like the fact that Matthews and Marner are Hyman's two most common linemates, and they play a ton. As well as ignoring the value the players actually bring within their time, which is just ridiculous.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Kerfoot is getting cap dumped or flipped for futures. That saves us 3.5. Engvall and next year Robertson makes him expendable. Freddie is either walking and a goalie brought in to tandem with Campbell or signing a show me deal. Either scenario should save us a few bucks. Kessel retention comes off the books when Rielly is due for his raise. The core will remain intact

 

[Stonehands1990]

Kerfoot is getting cap dumped or flipped for futures. That saves us 3.5. Engvall and next year Robertson make him expendable.

Freddie is either walking and replaced with a tandem goalie to split minutes with Campbell (Ullmark?) or signing a show me deal. Either saves us some $

Kessel retention comes off the books in time to contribute to Rielly’s raise. The core will stay intact

 

[Folignos Helmet]

We take a 2nd/3rd for Kerfoot this summer and accept we messed up the Kadri deal.

Hyman 4M x 4

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Galchenyuk (1x1) - Tavares - Marner
Mikheyev - Engvall - Simmonds
Thorton - Spezza - ___________

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Bogo
Liljegren

2-3M value goalie
Campbell

Assuming we do well in playoffs, say we come out of North at least, and lose Dermott in expansion draft,...
Give Anderson's Money to Hyman
Give Kerfoot's money to an Anderson replacement to partner with Jack
Give Hyman's money for a 3C to replace Kerfoot - Cizikas, Granlund, Bjugstad
Give Simmonds money to Bennett (when he doesn't get qualified)
Hope Bogo takes the same, and if Gally keeps it up he can as well.

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Gally/Robertson - Tavares - Nylander
Mik - Cizikas - Bennett
Engvall - Spezza - Joey Anderson

Reilly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Bogo

Dreidger/Ullmark
Campbell

If we don't do well, presumably for same reasons, then Willie becomes sacrificial lamb for 2 solid middle six players.

 

[hockeyes]

I think the Leafs have painted themselves into a corner with Hyman. There is nobody even close to stealing his job, they've overpayed elsewhere and have next to nothing to offer him relative to what other teams will.

This type of situation is exactly what I feared with signing Tavares and it was completely unnecessary. We didn't need him, we just needed time.

Our only hope is he is willing to take a discount to remain a Leaf.

 

[MattyNew91]

I think the leafs have to let Freddi go and the guy I would have on top of the list would be Dreidger from Florida. If the leafs can get him for 3.5m I think that would be the max the leafs go in a goalie to split time with Campbell. Trade kerfoot or have Seattle take him in the expansion draft but Dermott looks really appealing a guy that has had a solid year for the leafs but hasn't been given any special teams and ready to break out. If they traded for a guy like Bennet this year leafs could get 2 rounds out of him for a cheap cost as he is still a RFA and won't get a raise and could see him take less as a show me contract around 1.8m to 2m from his 2.55m. He could be our 3rd line center and move up when needed kinda like what kerfoot does for us but cheaper. I think he would be big for the leafs in the playoffs if he can continue what he did last night against Mcdavid. This is a good read on him.

With Flames becoming deadline sellers, Bennett puts value on display

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

No team is going to pay Hyman 5 mill x 8.

He has a career-high of 41 Points. Just because he plays with Matthews and Co., and is producing, doesn't mean he's a bona-fide offensive talent.

Sure he is great at hustling and plays great defense. But that alone doesn't generate you a big contract.
Do you really think another team would offer him 5 Mill for 8 years? I don't think so.

I'd go 3.5 Million x 6 years for Hyman.

He was on pace for 59 pts last year and is on pace for 56 this year. He is one of the best power forwards in the league and I think could play and produce with anyone. All the guy does is win puck battles and keep possession for his linenates.

I think that contract is a little much but he is more than a 40 pt player. I would say 5 x 5 would be fair for both sides tbh but would prefer the AAV around 4. 50-60 pt players i would say usually come in around 5M. Alex Killorn would probably be a good comparable to Hyman and he makes 4.5M. The two of them have scored at the exact same pace this year and last.

 

[NK94]

Anderson is younger, and had a proven 27 goal under his belt after his 3rd NHL season. He was also given a contract that was widly critiqued as being an overpayment. I'm not sure this works well as a baseline for Hymans new deal as well as you suggest. Hayes also has better career offensive numbers.

Hyman certainly has the opportunity to try and chase bigger dollars in free agency, but I'd be surprised if he opts to do that

Never mind the fact Hayes has more positional value as a centre and he was signed prior to an unforeseen global pandemic that would be keeping the cap flat for the next 4 seasons.

Again, Toffoli and Dadanov got the most money for UFA forwards last fall, and Hyman scores less than both of them. His pay raise won’t be as high as we think and we’ve gone down the “TSN is heavily overvaluing and overrating the Leafs pending UFA’s” road before.

 

[ACC1224]

I think the Leafs have painted themselves into a corner with Hyman. There is nobody even close to stealing his job, they've overpayed elsewhere and have next to nothing to offer him relative to what other teams will.

This type of situation is exactly what I feared with signing Tavares and it was completely unnecessary. We didn't need him, we just needed time.

Our only hope is he is willing to take a discount to remain a Leaf.

It will be 5x5, 4x5.5 in that ballpark. It will be an easy signing