Salary Cap: 2021/22 Season 81.5M AAV CAP Leafs

[Dekes For Days]

Ice time is exactly how you determine value.

Except it's not. It's incredibly lazy.

Sure, Nylander might be a better player, but there's must reason he plays less.

Yes, but that reason isn't what you seem to think it is.

I don't get the Thornton thing. This is exactly why I didn't like the signing. Keefe seems to be struggling to find a place for him, and that's been resulting in him getting way too much ice time.

So ice time is the only thing that matters... except when you arbitrarily decide it's not?

It's too bad the Leafs seem to need a boost on a very regular basis.

We don't "need" a boost very often. We dominate most games. Hyman just has a very particular skillset, so might as well use it to help in the best way possible. The point was that while jumper cables may be helpful to have, they are not more important than having the car in the first place.

 

[Dreakmur]

Except it's not. It's incredibly lazy.

If Keefe thought Nylander was more valuable than Hyman, he'd play more than him.

Yes, but that reason isn't what you seem to think it is.

What's the reason?

So ice time is the only thing that matters... except when you arbitrarily decide it's not?

Ice time tells you the coach's opinion.

I think Keefe is right about Hyman and I think he's wrong about Thornton.

We don't "need" a boost very often. We dominate most games. Hyman just has a very particular skillset, so might as well use it to help in the best way possible. The point was that while jumper cables may be helpful to have, they are not more important than having the car in the first place.

If your car doesn't start, it's not very valuable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Keefe thought Nylander was more valuable than Hyman, he'd play more than him.

Your idea that ice time perfectly captures the value of a player (or even the coach's opinion of their value) is incorrect, not substantiated by anything, and you literally counter your own claim in the exact same post with Thornton. It's the appeal to authority fallacy, because you have no argument to support your claim yourself.

Ice time often comes down to who they play with, what situations they play, system details, what situations the Leafs have found themselves in throughout the season, etc. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander are our forward anchors. They are the most valuable, and most important. They are the car that drives this team. A minute here or there in ice time doesn't change that. Hyman is having a great season, and he's great in his role, but his role and impact can be much more easily replaced.

 

[zeke]

If Keefe thought Nylander was more valuable than Hyman, he'd play more than him.

Not exactly.

If matthesws and marner weren't on the team, then Tavares and willy would play more than Hyman.

 

[Dreakmur]

Not exactly.

If matthesws and marner weren't on the team, then Tavares and willy would play more than Hyman.

As I said in an earlier post. The presence of Matthews and Marner make Tavares and Nylander less valuable.

 

[zeke]

As I said in an earlier post. The presence of Matthews and Marner make Tavares and Nylander less valuable.

Doesn't actually change their value though.

 

[Dreakmur]

Your idea that ice time perfectly captures the value of a player (or even the coach's opinion of their value) is incorrect, not substantiated by anything, and you literally counter your own claim in the exact same post with Thornton. It's the appeal to authority fallacy, because you have no argument to support your claim yourself.

As I said, ice time tells you what the coach thinks.

I think he’s wrong about Thornton. You think he’s wrong about Hyman.

Ice time often comes down to who they play with, what situations they play, system details, what situations the Leafs have found themselves in throughout the season, etc. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander are our forward anchors. They are the most valuable, and most important. They are the car that drives this team. A minute here or there in ice time doesn't change that. Hyman is having a great season, and he's great in his role, but his role and impact can be much more easily replaced.

Yes ice time comes down to roles and such... but roles are valuable. It’s doesn’t make Hyman a better player than Nylander, but it does make him more valuable to the team.

Players who play a more unique roll have added value.

 

[Dreakmur]

Doesn't actually change their value though.

It really does.

There’s a difference between the price of something and the value of something. You guys are arguing price, which I’m not disagreeing with.

 

[zeke]

It really does.

There’s a difference between the price of something and the value of something. You guys are arguing price, which I’m not disagreeing with.

I guess the question then is would we be hurt more by losing Hyman than by Tavares or Nylander?

I don’t think so.

As for what coach thinks - the absolute anchors of his lineups have been matthees/marner and tavares/Nylander. That's the framework on which he hangs the rest of the complementary players on. And that's still what Hyman is - the best of the complementary players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You think he’s wrong about Hyman.

I never said anything about Keefe being wrong regarding Hyman. I said you're wrong regarding what that ice time means about Hyman.

It’s doesn’t make Hyman a better player than Nylander, but it does make him more valuable to the team.

No, it doesn't. You're vastly undervaluing what Nylander brings. There's a reason Keefe has made Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander our forward anchors, that he builds everything around.

 

[Dreakmur]

I guess the question then is would we be hurt more by losing Hyman than by Tavares or Nylander?

I don’t think so.

That's exactly the question I was asking. I think losing Hyman would hurt more.

As for what coach thinks - the absolute anchors of his lineups have been matthees/marner and tavares/Nylander. That's the framework on which he hangs the rest of the complementary players on. And that's still what Hyman is - the best of the complementary players.

That's fair.... but complimentary players can be very valuable. I think Hyman is.

 

[Dreakmur]

I never said anything about Keefe being wrong regarding Hyman. I said you're wrong regarding what that ice time means about Hyman.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I think ice time is just like money... you spend more on things you value.

No, it doesn't. You're vastly undervaluing what Nylander brings. There's a reason Keefe has made Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander our forward anchors, that he builds everything around.

There's also a reason he plays some guys more than others.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There's also a reason he plays some guys more than others.

Yes, for reasons already stated. Not because it's a perfect representation of their value to the team; something you've already agreed with for other players. You're drawing unsubstantiated conclusions from a pretty insignificant difference in ice time, with none of the context behind it.

 

[Dreakmur]

Yes, for reasons already stated. Not because it's a perfect representation of their value to the team; something you've already agreed with for other players.

It's a representation of what Keefe thinks. Once again, I think he's wrong with Joe Thornton.

 

[TMLegend]

I think the media narrative about the contract is definitely getting absurd. He's not getting 5mil, and certainly not in this environment.

This seems actually a fairly straightforward negotiation for both sides. Player loves playing here, team loves the player. I don't think it will be particularly difficult to get done. Team will compromise on term and movement clauses and he'll likely be willing to settle on a more appreciate aav

That's the absolute minimum he's getting, and that's if he takes a hometown discount to stay. He's scored at 30 goal, near 60 point pace(most of which is at ES) the last 82 games he's played. He's a fixture on the penalty kill, can play powerplay, provides intangibles, and just basically is the type of player every team is looking to add to their lineup.

Josh Anderson literally just got 5.5m x 7 in the same cap environment, despite having major question marks around him. Kevin Hayes got 7.1m x 7 and is basically a direct comparable heading into ufa for Hyman.

Hyman is as good as gone. Or if he's kept Nylander will be.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's a representation of what Keefe thinks. Once again, I think he's wrong with Joe Thornton.

No, it's not what Keefe thinks. You can't justify a position exclusively through an appeal to authority by twisting something impacted by many factors into an entirely assumed opinion, especially while ignoring the contrasting information and simultaneously saying that that authority is wrong when it doesn't fit your perception. It's illogical.

 

[Dreakmur]

No, it's not what Keefe thinks. You can't justify a position exclusively through an appeal to authority by twisting something impacted by many factors into an entirely assumed opinion, especially while ignoring the contrasting information and simultaneously saying that that authority is wrong when it doesn't fit your perception. It's illogical.

Logically, it's what Keefe thinks.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Logically, it's what Keefe thinks.

Logically, that's incorrect, for the reasons already stated. Find a way to support your own claims, instead of putting words into people's mouths and then appealing to them.

 

[Dreakmur]

Logically, that's incorrect, for the reasons already stated.

The reasons you gave are that other factors determine his ice time. I say those are the exact same other factors that determine value. A bottle of water isn't valuable to you right now. How valuable would that same bottle be if you were stranded in the desert?

Have you ever coached a competitive sports team?

 

[Menzinger]

That's the absolute minimum he's getting, and that's if he takes a hometown discount to stay. He's scored at 30 goal, near 60 point pace(most of which is at ES) the last 82 games he's played. He's a fixture on the penalty kill, can play powerplay, provides intangibles, and just basically is the type of player every team is looking to add to their lineup.

Josh Anderson literally just got 5.5m x 7 in the same cap environment, despite having major question marks around him. Kevin Hayes got 7.1m x 7 and is basically a direct comparable heading into ufa for Hyman.

Hyman is as good as gone. Or if he's kept Nylander will be.

Anderson is younger, and had a proven 27 goal under his belt after his 3rd NHL season. He was also given a contract that was widly critiqued as being an overpayment. I'm not sure this works well as a baseline for Hymans new deal as well as you suggest. Hayes also has better career offensive numbers.

Hyman certainly has the opportunity to try and chase bigger dollars in free agency, but I'd be surprised if he opts to do that

 

[Dekes For Days]

Have you ever coached a competitive sports team?

I know I said you shouldn't put words in people's mouths and then appeal to them, and that's true, but pretending that you're an authority and then appealing to yourself isn't any better, for the record.

 

[Dreakmur]

I know I said you shouldn't put words in people's mouths and then appeal to them, and that's true, but pretending that you're an authority and then appealing to yourself isn't any better, for the record.

In my years of coaching, I have come to the realization that ice time is how you determine value. You can say that's me calling myself an authority if you want, but it's really just me using a large sample size of real life experience to come to a conclusion. Doesn't mean I'm right, but at least my opinion is based on something real.

 

[hamzarocks]

2021 Hyman is easily more valuable than 2021 Nylander. Obviously in the past and most likely in the future 88 will outplay/outproduce and be more valuable than 11, but this year so far Hyman has been too good. Keefe builds matchups/plays around Hyman. He has his set plays on the PK, he makes sure the Hyman line is matched versus the best players (as we saw vs EDM for most of the series)

Nylander playing with Kerfoot/Mikheyev/Engvall is not a guy who will produce while being able to go up against Mcdavid.

Hyman has done that this year and has been excellent in which ever role Keefe has had him play

Hyman's only flaw is age. If he was 25 you build around him over Nylander, but he's near 30 and giving him fat and the long-term deal is just too risky at this point.

Hyman is our 3rd most valuable player this year (if Campbell keeps it up over a longer time period he moves past him). I don't see Hyman walking from the team, he'll come back around 4-4.5 on 4 year deal similar to Tyler Toffoli

 

[Dekes For Days]

In my years of coaching, I have come to the realization that ice time is how you determine value.

If you were actually a coach, you would know that it's not nearly that simple.

 

[I am Canadian]

We take a 2nd/3rd for Kerfoot this summer and accept we messed up the Kadri deal.

Hyman 4M x 4

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Galchenyuk (1x1) - Tavares - Marner
Mikheyev - Engvall - Simmonds
Thorton - Spezza - ___________

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Bogo
Liljegren

2-3M value goalie
Campbell