Speculation: 2021-22 LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread Part VI

[Trash Panda]

kinda neat. I wonder which trio breaks up first, ours or theirs. Or maybe both streaks end this offseason.

It better f***ing be ours.

Replacing Brown with just about anyone would be a marked improvement to this roster.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Well Doughty's in his 14th season, from the graphic we can infer that Backstrom, Beliveau, Richard, and Provost were together for 14 as well, but that's got to be the top of the quartet list right?

Maybe, but you have Gretzky, Kurri, Messier, Coffey - then Potvin, Bossy, Trottier, Smith,

Lemiuex, Jagr, Francis, Coffey I think...was in there....

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Well Doughty's in his 14th season, from the graphic we can infer that Backstrom, Beliveau, Richard, and Provost were together for 14 as well, but that's got to be the top of the quartet list right?

Misread, I thought you were saying just quartets, not guys been together 14 years etc.

 

[Telos]

The Athletic have dropped the Kings in a couple of articles today.

Jakob Chychrun trade destinations: Top contenders, 4 dark horses, and what’s a fair price to pay?

For those without a subscription it just says that we are expected to be top 3 in the running for Chychrun.

NHL Player Cards: Los Angeles Kings

They dropped analytic cards are key players, ones to note are:

 

[Reclamation Project]

kinda neat. I wonder which trio breaks up first, ours or theirs. Or maybe both streaks end this offseason.

I think both Letang and Malkin will re-sign there. Brown not sure. Pens probably go longer.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

The Athletic have dropped the Kings in a couple of articles today.

Jakob Chychrun trade destinations: Top contenders, 4 dark horses, and what’s a fair price to pay?

For those without a subscription it just says that we are expected to be top 3 in the running for Chychrun.

NHL Player Cards: Los Angeles Kings

They dropped analytic cards are key players, ones to note are:

His are way more confusing that some of the other ones, so here's a key for anyone who's interested in trying to interpret them:

The main difference between this card and prior versions is that this card is not only showing what a player is projected to do but also what they’re actually doing this season (and have done in the past, via a three-year summary at the top). One of the main challenges with explaining projected values is that it’s sometimes difficult to separate them from what a player has already done. I see it all the time with questions like “Player X looks a lot better than your GSVA suggests” and the reason for that is his projected value takes into account his priors. Generally speaking, a person’s intuition is bang-on and their actual value for the season is closer in line with what they’re seeing.

If a player is on pace for 80 points but was previously closer to a 40-point scorer, how much can that sudden spike be trusted? What can we expect going forward? After regressing and accounting for sample size, a projected value suggests an answer, but that doesn’t mean what they’ve done so far isn’t also interesting. Having both concepts side-by-side adds valuable context to the type of season they’re having and its sustainability. That was the main goal of the redesign.

It may be a bit confusing to see a player with a higher pace number than projected, but a shorter pace bar than projected. That’s due to the regression that’s happening with the projected values and the small sample sizes that the pace values are dealing with. It leads to a tight range of projected values, but a very wide range of pace values. An example: A player may be projected to be a 40-goal scorer, but is actually on pace for 45. That may seem like he’s overperforming — and he is — but relative to his peers, he may actually be lower. A 40-goal projection might have him in the 90th percentile, but a 45-goal pace might only land him in the 85th percentile. What that generally means is his goal-scoring is a lot more reliable and while he may regress closer to 40 goals, his peers who are pacing above him should fall even further.

That’s easily seen here, not only by the numbers on the side, but also by the bar lengths. If a projected bar is longer than a player’s pace bar, it means the model expects that player to improve based on his history. A longer pace bar compared to the projected bar means expect him to come down to earth a bit. Those bars are based on what percentile a player falls into at his position within that metric, a number that isn’t explicitly stated. It’s sometimes helpful to know that a player is in the 95th percentile exactly, but I didn’t want to imply false precision with that number, especially with how variable all the stats can be from month to month. When it comes to a player in the 50th and 60th percentile, odds are you’re mostly splitting hairs between the two.

This is a new data visualization so I can imagine it may be overwhelming to some, especially those less versed with analytics. For that reason, I’ve created a visual guide on how exactly to read it below (and I’ll be in the comments with any additional questions people may have):

 

[kingsfan]

Well Doughty's in his 14th season, from the graphic we can infer that Backstrom, Beliveau, Richard, and Provost were together for 14 as well, but that's got to be the top of the quartet list right?

Yep, and I'd assume Quick, Kopitar and Drew are all back next year. After that we'd have to see. Surprised Thornton/Marleau/someone isn't on this list, figured some Shark would have hung around that long with them.

 

[bland]

His are way more confusing that some of the other ones, so here's a key for anyone who's interested in trying to interpret them:

Yeah, but does Player X have .0045 more expected goals on Tuesday nights following a Saturday day game when playing .501 of his minutes against lefty-lefty d pairs who are on a back to back with a right catching goalie who is starting his 4th game in a row?

 

[King'sPawn]

Yeah, but does Player X have .0045 more expected goals on Tuesday nights following a Saturday day game when playing .501 of his minutes against lefty-lefty d pairs who are on a back to back with a right catching goalie who is starting his 4th game in a row?

There are some people who like analytics. And there are some who aren't as keen on the eye test and see things better numerically.

I don't understand the fascination to undermine or dismiss it just because it's not your thing. I don't even see anyone drawing any absurd conclusions from it, either.

 

[Statto]

There are some people who like analytics. And there are some who aren't as keen on the eye test and see things better numerically.

I don't understand the fascination to undermine or dismiss it just because it's not your thing. I don't even see anyone drawing any absurd conclusions from it, either.

I like the XG stuff. I used to compile similar stats back in the early 2000’s and it definitely tracks over a season in terms of both individual and team performance. It’s a useful coaching tool for sure but it takes nothing away from the eye test, it’s just another item in the took kit.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Yeah, but does Player X have .0045 more expected goals on Tuesday nights following a Saturday day game when playing .501 of his minutes against lefty-lefty d pairs who are on a back to back with a right catching goalie who is starting his 4th game in a row?

You don't like non-traditional statistics, you've definitely made that clear. As KP was getting at, some people find value in additional information to help make sense of a fast and chaotic sport for which it is impossible to log and classify every point of information on the ice through sight alone. I think it's possible to have a capable eye for watching the game while also incorporating additional information into one's analysis for a complete understand of what's happening on the ice throughout the course of a season.

 

[JTeller97]

Here's a clip from David Pagnotta, he seems to think a deal will happen prior to the deadline.
They start Talking about Chychrun at the 2 min mark.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Chychrun has a modified NTC and signing bonuses after next year--so they're not in a hurry but they definitely would want to move him before then.

 

[kings11]

Chychrun has a modified NTC and signing bonuses after next year--so they're not in a hurry but they definitely would want to move him before then.

I think Provorov will be cheaper and without the knee issues.. he’s what $2mill per more expensive but same term..
I don’t see Blake move Byfield, Turcotte, Clarke or Kaliyev and me thinks that’s a deal breaker from Phoenix.. You could probably get Provorov for a 1st, Vilardi, JAD, Simontaival

 

[unicornpig]

I think Provorov will be cheaper and without the knee issues.. he’s what $2mill per more expensive but same term..
I don’t see Blake move Byfield, Turcotte, Clarke or Kaliyev and me thinks that’s a deal breaker from Phoenix.. You could probably get Provorov for a 1st, Vilardi, JAD, Simontaival

this. if arizona wants four 1sts then they can get it elsewhere.

only issue there hasn't been any rumblings of him being available. knowing how dumb phillys front office is they try to reshuffle coaches in players in attempt to be competitive.

 

[kings11]

this. if arizona wants four 1sts then they can get it elsewhere.

only issue there hasn't been any rumblings of him being available. knowing how dumb phillys front office is they try to reshuffle coaches in players in attempt to be competitive.

There has but Philly isn’t going nuts like the Yotes. Provorov’s name has been discussed for awhile now and I think he’d be awesome with Doughty

 

[Perratrooper]

Apologies for continuously circling back to this, but I can’t help but feel Girard for Roy+ would be a great trade for both teams.

You guys are absolutely stocked full with RHD, however in my opinion your left side leaves something to be desired. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for you guys to be able to land Chychrun and Girard while still having solid RHD depth.

So my question is, what would you be willing to add to Roy to land Girard? Doesn’t have to be only roster players either, higher end futures/prospects would also move the needle imo.

 

[Fat Elvis]

Would really like LA to get Provorov from Phily. Even Sanheim would be nice.
Thinking a deal is coming sooner than later. Hopefully for a good LHD

 

[kings11]

Apologies for continuously circling back to this, but I can’t help but feel Girard for Roy+ would be a great trade for both teams.

You guys are absolutely stocked full with RHD, however in my opinion your left side leaves something to be desired. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for you guys to be able to land Chychrun and Girard while still having solid RHD depth.

So my question is, what would you be willing to add to Roy to land Girard? Doesn’t have to be only roster players either, higher end futures/prospects would also move the needle imo.

Honestly, I don’t think Girard moves the needle for the Kings.. really good player but two things;
1- Roy is probably our best defensive Dman and it would hurt us immensely to trade him away just to get more offense..
2- Girard would likely make us one of the smallest D corps in the league and thats not something we can afford. We’re already on the smaller side

 

[kings11]

Would really like LA to get Provorov from Phily. Even Sanheim would be nice.
Thinking a deal is coming sooner than later. Hopefully for a good LHD

Heck I’d even do Madden for Soucy, brings a little bit of everything but a whole lotta size.. no pun intended you sickos aka LT Dan

 

[Fat Elvis]

Apologies for continuously circling back to this, but I can’t help but feel Girard for Roy+ would be a great trade for both teams.

You guys are absolutely stocked full with RHD, however in my opinion your left side leaves something to be desired. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for you guys to be able to land Chychrun and Girard while still having solid RHD depth.

So my question is, what would you be willing to add to Roy to land Girard? Doesn’t have to be only roster players either, higher end futures/prospects would also move the needle imo.

LA's defense is small as it is. Girard is a nice player, just not the type LA "needs". IMO

 

[unicornpig]

Apologies for continuously circling back to this, but I can’t help but feel Girard for Roy+ would be a great trade for both teams.

You guys are absolutely stocked full with RHD, however in my opinion your left side leaves something to be desired. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for you guys to be able to land Chychrun and Girard while still having solid RHD depth.

So my question is, what would you be willing to add to Roy to land Girard? Doesn’t have to be only roster players either, higher end futures/prospects would also move the needle imo.

i wouldn't even do the roy for girard straight up let alone add......

 

[Perratrooper]

Honestly, I don’t think Girard moves the needle for the Kings.. really good player but two things;
1- Roy is probably our best defensive Dman and it would hurt us immensely to trade him away just to get more offense..
2- Girard would likely make us one of the smallest D corps in the league and thats not something we can afford. We’re already on the smaller side

LA's defense is small as it is. Girard is a nice player, just not the type LA "needs". IMO

Thank for you the insight! Completely get not having a need for Girard especially on a smaller d-core.

With that being said expect be to circle back to Roy with different offers haha.

 

[Fat Elvis]

Thank for you the insight! Completely get not having a need for Girard especially on a smaller d-core.

With that being said expect be to circle back to Roy with different offers haha.

Roy is a perfect bottom pairing D for LA. LA doesn't really have a replacement in the pipeline like him. Signed to a good contract as well.
Not sure LA makes a good trading partner at the moment, since they're making an effort to make the playoffs this season. LA is looking to add a player like Provorov. Whether or not they do is a different topic.

 

[bland]

Roy is a perfect bottom pairing D for LA. LA doesn't really have a replacement in the pipeline like him. Signed to a good contract as well.
Not sure LA makes a good trading partner at the moment, since they're making an effort to make the playoffs this season. LA is looking to add a player like Provorov. Whether or not they do is a different topic.

Bottom pairing my spotty ass.