This is what you'd like to happen and not what you think is going to happen, right?
T-Mac was given the money he was given so they can hopefully make the playoffs in the last year of his five year contract?
They've improved in the standings every season since the rebuild began in 2019 so how are they getting a Top 5 pick "again"? They are already out of the Top 5 this season.
To simply hope that the prospects start impacting in their D4-D6 years is insane. Also, nobody gets better and younger every year: your young good players get older and you don't just swap them out for new prospects. Back to just waiting on D4-D6 year prospects to provide progress in 2023, are you suggesting that Blake will not add any outside help that entire time? Again, this is why I ask if this is more what you would like to see v. what you think Blake will do because there is zero chance he stands pat and waits for 2024 to make the playoffs.
You can add and build at the same time. You can add someone now that is 27 or younger and they should still be productive by the time you have the playoffs pegged in 2024. I know you say it all could fall flat and, yeah, simply sitting on all of the prospects and hoping for another Top 5 pick is extremely risky.
The prospect pool is like a meme stock. Look at how high that price has risen! It's all unrealized gains until you cash it out and it probably isn't a good investment strategy to not realize some of those gains and invest it in something proven.
It's an ideal scenario. Not what I necessarily expect to happen. The chances of a rebuild working out are always slim.
It's misleading to say the team has improved in the standings. Kings point percentage last 3 years:
18/19: .430
19/20: .457
20/21: .438
They looked better at the end of last season, then they did by the end of this season.
Remember in my post I said "
If the Kings stay the current course"; meaning keep acquiring young assets don't make significant moves to improve the roster right now. If that continues, they'll likely be a bottom feeder team in the running for a top 5 pick again.
Anything can happen though. If Vilardi/Byfield/Andersson "hit" next season, the Kings could be a playoff team. I just think that's low probability and Kopitar looks like he's declining.
Hoping your prospects hit in their D4-D6 years exactly what you do in a rebuild.
Expecting and
hoping are two different things. "Getting better and younger" is a term Dean used to use. It means your team is starting to improve, while you simultaneously have new young players coming into the lineup.
As far as what Blake will do, I don't know. I suspect AEG doesn't want to spend. I also think it will come down to whether or not Blake feels like he needs to do something to save his job. My opinion is that the Kings should do nothing and stay on the current path. I suspect you disagree.
I agree there's more than one way to build a contender. But building through the draft is the best way IMO.
I like the investing analogy, but I think you've got it backwards. Building the farm is like taking the long term patient approach Warren Buffett style. Trying to "win now" is like trading meme stocks; you might get a short term boost, but it's a fools errand that never works out in the long term.
The key to success is almost always the same no matter what you're doing. Think long term, delay gratification.