Speculation: 2021-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster discussion

[bland]

When is there not risk though?

Eichel people are worried about injury
Marner people are worried about contract
Caufield people were worried about height
Gaborik people were worried about injury

I think this board is to risk averse. Do you double down on your 10 when the dealer is showing an 8?

Because the team has gone in a direction where is too damn fragile at the moment to risk anything until it's on a firmer foundation. There is every reason to believe that adding a big name now does more damage than good.

Rebuilds take as long as they take. This one was made necessary by strip-mining the asset list to chase something uncatchable, locking in far, far too many players to longterm deals which gave a stale team too much power over coaching, and poorly evaluating the leadership skills of the players in the core.

They had no choice but to shut it down and build back up from the ground. They tried and failed to make the end years of the vets relevant. It just couldn't be done. It was the wrong play. They should have retooled after 15-16, but they doubled down and lost, and the team lost at least two full seasons of what should have been positive growth.

Eichel, Jones, Marner, its just dead money and wasted assets on more losing. This rebuild is just starting to sprout, it will bear fruit if tended to, then you decide what changes need to be made.

It won't be too late, there is always big name skill available. Always, every year teams that try to play both ends at the same time fail and reconsider and have talent that have contracts coming up that force decisions. You make that deal at the right time, otherwise you are increasing the odds that you are chasing your own tail instead of moving forward.

 

[Herby]

Because the team has gone in a direction where is too damn fragile at the moment to risk anything until it's on a firmer foundation. There is every reason to believe that adding a big name now does more damage than good.

Rebuilds take as long as they take. This one was made necessary by strip-mining the asset list to chase something uncatchable, locking in far, far too many players to longterm deals which gave a stale team too much power over coaching, and poorly evaluating the leadership skills of the players in the core.

They had no choice but to shut it down and build back up from the ground. They tried and failed to make the end years of the vets relevant. It just couldn't be done. It was the wrong play. They should have retooled after 15-16, but they doubled down and lost, and the team lost at least two full seasons of what should have been positive growth.

Eichel, Jones, Marner, its just dead money and wasted assets on more losing. This rebuild is just starting to sprout, it will bear fruit if tended to, then you decide what changes need to be made.

It won't be too late, there is always big name skill available. Always, every year teams that try to play both ends at the same time fail and reconsider and have talent that have contracts coming up that force decisions. You make that deal at the right time, otherwise you are increasing the odds that you are chasing your own tail instead of moving forward.

Some makes sense some doesn't.

It is extremely unlikely that a Jack Eichel caliber player under 25 years of age will be available again in the next 5 years or so. That is the reality of the situation. It's a bit ridiculous to say "big name skill is always available". So it seems that you would rather let the prospects develop and then splurge on FA's to fill a major role on the team? That seems risky.

I still am curious what the arrival time and truly blossoming time is for every one of our key prospects and how that fits in with Kopitar and Doughty. When are the Kings ready to contend again and what will the lineup look like at that point? Who are the star players for this organization in four years if you stay the course. Doughty will be 35 and Kopitar will be 37. Anyone else can answer this, I mean if you think Byfield will be the next Barkov, Turcotte will be O'Reilly and Kaliyev will be Rantanen lets hear it.

Have you given any consideration to what happens if QB isn't a legit star 1C? I think its likely he is a star 1C, but it's also possible he is a Ryan Johanssen caliber player, the Kings aren't winning a cup if you stay the course and that happens unless the Kings either suck the next couple of years and find another superstar prospect or they trade for an established star that happens to be available.

 

[tomd]

Some makes sense some doesn't.

It is extremely unlikely that a Jack Eichel caliber player under 25 years of age will be available again in the next 5 years or so. That is the reality of the situation. It's a bit ridiculous to say "big name skill is always available". So it seems that you would rather let the prospects develop and then splurge on FA's to fill a major role on the team? That seems risky.

I still am curious what the arrival time and truly blossoming time is for every one of our key prospects and how that fits in with Kopitar and Doughty. When are the Kings ready to contend again and what will the lineup look like at that point? Who are the star players for this organization in four years if you stay the course. Doughty will be 35 and Kopitar will be 37. Anyone else can answer this, I mean if you think Byfield will be the next Barkov, Turcotte will be O'Reilly and Kaliyev will be Rantanen lets hear it.

Have you given any consideration to what happens if QB isn't a legit star 1C? I think its likely he is a star 1C, but it's also possible he is a Ryan Johanssen caliber player, the Kings aren't winning a cup if you stay the course and that happens unless the Kings either suck the next couple of years and find another superstar prospect or they trade for an established star that happens to be available.

There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance among some posters here. Blake says the goal this summer is to improve the team and yet some are still talking about rebuilding for as long as it takes...as if for the next 2-3 years the plan is to remain a bottom 5 team. Like you, I also see some very rosy projections for the prospect pool which will almost certainly not be achieved. I just don't see how Blake makes the roster competitive in the next couple of years without getting talent from outside the organization...however that needs to be accomplished.

 

[johnjm22]

I still am curious what the arrival time and truly blossoming time is for every one of our key prospects and how that fits in with Kopitar and Doughty. When are the Kings ready to contend again and what will the lineup look like at that point? Who are the star players for this organization in four years if you stay the course. Doughty will be 35 and Kopitar will be 37.

If the Kings stay the current course, I would suspect 23/24 would be the target for playoffs again.

21/22
Bottom feeder. Almost all our significant prospects will eventually see time by the end of this season. Acquire another top 5 pick in the draft.

22/23
Progress. Most prospects really start impacting in their D4-D6 years, and many of our current prospects/young players will be in that range. This is where you start getting better and younger every year.

23/24
Playoffs.

24/25 to 29/30
Contender.

That's the optimistic scenario. However, we all know things never really tend to work out as planned. It could also completely fall flat. But continuing to build is the best course of action IMO.

 

[johnjm22]

There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance among some posters here. Blake says the goal this summer is to improve the team and yet some are still talking about rebuilding for as long as it takes...as if for the next 2-3 years the plan is to remain a bottom 5 team. Like you, I also see some very rosy projections for the prospect pool which will almost certainly not be achieved. I just don't see how Blake makes the roster competitive in the next couple of years without getting talent from outside the organization...however that needs to be accomplished.

And I can't believe you actually take comments like that from a GM at face value. Those are the type of vague statements that every GM in the league makes every offseason.

I don't know what Blake will do. Maybe they will try and make a big splash, but I wouldn't be expecting it just because of those comments.

 

[Herby]

There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance among some posters here. Blake says the goal this summer is to improve the team and yet some are still talking about rebuilding for as long as it takes...as if for the next 2-3 years the plan is to remain a bottom 5 team. Like you, I also see some very rosy projections for the prospect pool which will almost certainly not be achieved. I just don't see how Blake makes the roster competitive in the next couple of years without getting talent from outside the organization...however that needs to be accomplished.

Ofcourse the projections are rosey. I've been down this road to much with the Kings and seen it with other teams. Not every prospect is going to make it, many bust or disappoint. Look at the last Kings rebuild starting with the 06 draft and ending with the 2010 draft and what became of the high picks.

Bernier was a disappointment
Lewis had a role and was a useful player on the winning teams but was a semi-disappointment for a 1st rounder
Ryan was a bust
Johnson (trade) showed flashes but was disappointment
O'Sullivan (trade) showed flashes but was a disappointment
Hickey was a bust
Moller was a bust
Simmonds was a good 2nd liner for Philly
Doughty was a huge star
Teubert was a bust
Voynov was a good 2nd pairing defender
Schenn has been ok as a 5OA, but never as good as people thought
Clifford was a useful 4th liner
Forbort was a disappointment
Toffoli was a good 2nd liner

I'm not saying all the Kings prospects will flop or bust but the prospect adoration that happens on this site is not in line with the true results for most teams. I am cautiously optimistic with Byfield based on his skill level and the hit rate the league has with Top 2 picks. But there has to be some consideration that he becomes a RyJo like I said, obviously that isn't a disaster like a Nolan Patrick would be but are we winning the cup if QB is a decent #1 center? The Kings have a nice amount of depth, and depth can be used to bring in superstars that the system is probably not going to produce. There is simply no reason to hang on to all of Byfield, Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari, JAD when you can use two of them to get a star and then still have Eichel (25), Kopitar (31), Byfield (19) and then **STILL** have two of those guys on your roster.

I have no idea what Blake is doing, I feel like we are back in the Taylor era where we just have no general direction of what they are trying to build.

 

[tomd]

And I can't believe you actually take comments like that from a GM at face value. Those are the type of vague statements that every GM in the league makes every offseason.

I don't know what Blake will do. Maybe they will try and make a big splash, but I wouldn't be expecting it just because of those comments.

If Blake makes only Maata or AA type moves this summer then we know you are correct but I just don't see that. He could just as easily have said that the team is going to stay the course if that was the truth. Why would he lie about it and set up unrealistic fan expectations? Especially when the truth will be known in 3 months. Makes no sense.

 

[Herby]

If the Kings stay the current course, I would suspect 23/24 would be the target for playoffs again.

21/22
Bottom feeder. Almost all our significant prospects will eventually see time by the end of this season. Acquire another top 5 pick in the draft.

22/23
Progress. Most prospects really start impacting in their D4-D6 years, and many of our current prospects/young players will be in that range. This is where you start getting better and younger every year.

23/24
Playoffs.

24/25 to 29/30
Contender.

That's the optimistic scenario. However, we all know things never really tend to work out as planned. It could also completely fall flat. But continuing to build is the best course of action IMO.

Does being a bottom feeder in 21/22 also involve trading Doughty?

If so I am ok with it, as I've said before my preference is

1. Trade for Eichel and try and begin taking next steps
2. Trade Doughty and suck for the next few years and acquire more top 5 picks.

If no, I think you are being optimistic in expecting Doughty to stay through two more non-playoff seasons one of them being as a bottom feeder.

 

[johnjm22]

Does being a bottom feeder in 21/22 also involve trading Doughty?

I don't think it matters. That's up to him.

Regardless of whether or not he's here, the strategy should remain the same.

 

[johnjm22]

If Blake makes only Maata or AA type moves this summer then we know you are correct but I just don't see that. He could just as easily have said that the team is going to stay the course if that was the truth. Why would he lie about it and set up unrealistic fan expectations? Especially when the truth will be known in 3 months. Makes no sense.

That's just not how it works. They're not going to tell the fans that they expect to be a bottom feeder, even if that's their aim. They're always going to paint a rosier picture. That's their job.

I remember after Dean traded Demitra and signed Willsie/Thornton/Dallman ect. he was telling us that the team was going to surprise a lot of people blah blah blah. He wasn't going to say he was expecting them to suck, even though he clearly was.

If you make your statements vague enough, it's not really lying.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Kings don’t need another defenseman, the Kings need a 40-50 goal scoring winger. This offense has been POUNDED ASS for 15 years, just get a scorer already. Good lord we need goals! Overpay for it I don’t care, just get some elite scoring this team is unwatchable.

Well said Herby

There is also risk on prospects. They bust, get hurt, get deported, etc

 

[Reclamation Project]

The Kings will ruin him. He’ll be a 15-20 goal guy and score 50 after getting traded.

His tape job has big "ah shit better ration and use only a couple strips" energy...

 

[Herby]

I don't think it matters. That's up to him.

Regardless of whether or not he's here, the strategy should remain the same.

If Doughty does come back it's going to be very difficult for the Kings to be picking in the Top 5 next season and for the foreseeable future. Anaheim, San Jose, Seattle are all likely to be bad and Calgary and Vancouver looked totally cooked too. If Doughty comes back and they add nothing I still think they have a better shot at making the playoffs than they do of finishing bottom 5.

This is another crappy thing about the rebuild, instead of getting 4 or 5 of those treasured top 5 picks the Kings are very likely going to end up with 10-18-5-2-8 as the top picks to build their foundation.

 

[Statto]

Kings don’t need another defenseman, the Kings need a 40-50 goal scoring winger. This offense has been POUNDED ASS for 15 years, just get a scorer already. Good lord we need goals! Overpay for it I don’t care, just get some elite scoring this team is unwatchable.

Two 30 goal guys would be better, more likely attainable and be better value asset wise. However, this is where GM’s get it wrong so badly with rebuilds, making moves to appease impatience. I understand the frustration and I get the rational because entertaining the fans is important but the question becomes about what the goal is. Is it to make the play-offs, win a round here and there and look good doing it? Or is it to win the cup? Whilst they aren’t mutually exclusive going out and overpaying for scoring just for entertainment and overpaying for it, hurts the goal of getting another cup. It also doesn’t guarantee play-offs or entertainment.

There will be a plan, likely something along the lines of a ‘ghost roster’ that they are building. Players will be put into slots and there will be a few ‘X’ marks on the board. Each ‘X’ will have attributes they want in the player to fill that hole. They need to stick to the plan, once they get to the point of one or two X’s that’s when these sorts of trades get made, that’s when it’s fine to go out and overpay. It’s too early for such a move if the cup is our goal. Right now it needs to be smart calculated moves at decent value, be that draft, trade or free agency.

 

[Statto]

The Kings will ruin him. He’ll be a 15-20 goal guy and score 50 after getting traded.

His tape job has big "ah shit better ration and use only a couple strips" energy...

I guess on that basis trading for 40-50 guy seems pointless, we need to trade for a 80-90 goal guy to get the required output.

 

[Herby]

Two 30 goal guys would be better, more likely attainable and be better value asset wise. However, this is where GM’s get it wrong so badly with rebuilds, making moves to appease impatience. I understand the frustration and I get the rational because entertaining the fans is important but the question becomes about what the goal is. Is it to make the play-offs, win a round here and there and look good doing it? Or is it to win the cup? Whilst they aren’t mutually exclusive going out and overpaying for scoring just for entertainment and overpaying for it, hurts the goal of getting another cup. It also doesn’t guarantee play-offs or entertainment.

There will be a plan, likely something along the lines of a ‘ghost roster’ that they are building. Players will be put into slots and there will be a few ‘X’ marks on the board. Each ‘X’ will have attributes they want in the player to fill that hole. They need to stick to the plan, once they get to the point of one or two X’s that’s when these sorts of trades get made, that’s when it’s fine to go out and overpay. It’s too early for such a move if the cup is our goal. Right now it needs to be smart calculated moves at decent value, be that draft, trade or free agency.

I don't see very many people here wanting to go for quick fix UFA's. People bring up Eichel, Marner, Nylander because they fit in the age range with the Kings rebuild.

As far as the boxes, yes, that is what I keep asking. In 2009, three years before they won the cup you could piece together a Kings future roster that had 3 stars all under the age of 25 at the time. That makes things a hell of a lot easier than what the Kings have right now.

In 2009 at this time you'd probably had something like this for a 2012 (if that was return to contending) and going forward. Players in bold would be considered to have been both established players and building blocks for the future

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Brown (27)[/TD][TD]Kopitar (25)[/TD][TD]Williams (30)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][TD]Schenn (21)[/TD][TD]Moller (23)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][TD]Stoll (30)[/TD][TD]Simmonds (23)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Clifford (21)[/TD][TD]Richardson (27)[/TD][TD]Lewis (25)[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Johnson (25)[/TD][TD]Doughty (23)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][TD]Voynov (23)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Hickey (23)[/TD][TD]Greene (28)[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Quick (26)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Bernier (24)[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
The Kings traded their best prospect and frankly one of their better young players who had a really unique skill set for a player who was both not as good as Jack Eichel but was also older. They traded another player who a couple of years earlier was seen as a core building piece for a winger. Schenn and Johnson were both more highly regarded young players/prospects than anyone the Kings have now with the exception of QB (and even that is debatable). But the holes were just so much less than what Blake is facing. They had the 1C who left zero doubt he was a star from the moment he stepped on NHL ice, they had the franchise d-man because Dean put himself in that position to get players like that three years in a row. Yeah Dean whiffed on Hickey, and Schenn was only a 2nd liner but getting Doughty was all he needed because he had Kopitar, Quick and crap even Brown (who was better then than any current U-30 player the Kings have now by a long shot). Many of the expected secondary pieces disappointed but it didn't matter as much because they had game changing players to build around.

You mention the goal is to win SC's and not just make the playoffs. I agree, but how do you beat the Colorado's and Tampa's of the world?

If you hypothetically traded Vilardi, Turcotte and the #1 this year to Buffalo for Eichel this is the boxes Blake has to fill out over the next few years

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Kaliyev[/TD][TD]Eichel[/TD][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Iafallo[/TD][TD]Byfield[/TD][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kempe[/TD][TD]Kopitar[/TD][TD]Thomas[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Moore [/TD][TD]JAD[/TD][TD]Fagemo[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Anderson[/TD][TD]Doughty[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Bjornfot[/TD][TD]Roy[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][TD]FA/Trade[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

Talk about a great situation for Byfield to come into. He will never go against other teams best d-man and wouldn't be asked to do very much defensive lifting until Kopitar retires. He also wouldn't have the weight of being expected to carry the franchise and be a huge star. If he's a huge star, great, the Kings could have the best 1-2 punch down the middle in the league. If he's Ryan Johanssen, oh well I can think of worse things than having an Eichel/Johanssen type 1-2 punch down the middle for the next 8 years.

 

[KingsFan7824]

They had no choice but to shut it down and build back up from the ground. They tried and failed to make the end years of the vets relevant. It just couldn't be done. It was the wrong play. They should have retooled after 15-16, but they doubled down and lost, and the team lost at least two full seasons of what should have been positive growth.

They didn't double down after 15-16. They did nothing with the roster for two years. The Bishop trade, maybe a little doubling, bit there wasn't a real alternative by that point.

After 15-16:

Kopitar, 8 years left
Quick, 7
Brown, 6
Carter, 6
Gaborik, 5
Martinez, 5
Muzzin, 4
Clifford, 4
Lewis, 4
Doughty, 3 at $7m
Toffoli, 1
Pearson, 1

That's a roster that you can't do much with. Too much term tied up in too much age. Is it worse to waste Doughty at $10m, or $7m?

Had the Kings been average in the first half of 18-19, had they just been the 17-18 Kings, this whole rebuild probably isn't underway yet.

 

[kinghock]

Some makes sense some doesn't.

It is extremely unlikely that a Jack Eichel caliber player under 25 years of age will be available again in the next 5 years or so. That is the reality of the situation. It's a bit ridiculous to say "big name skill is always available". So it seems that you would rather let the prospects develop and then splurge on FA's to fill a major role on the team? That seems risky.

I still am curious what the arrival time and truly blossoming time is for every one of our key prospects and how that fits in with Kopitar and Doughty. When are the Kings ready to contend again and what will the lineup look like at that point? Who are the star players for this organization in four years if you stay the course. Doughty will be 35 and Kopitar will be 37. Anyone else can answer this, I mean if you think Byfield will be the next Barkov, Turcotte will be O'Reilly and Kaliyev will be Rantanen lets hear it.

Have you given any consideration to what happens if QB isn't a legit star 1C? I think its likely he is a star 1C, but it's also possible he is a Ryan Johanssen caliber player, the Kings aren't winning a cup if you stay the course and that happens unless the Kings either suck the next couple of years and find another superstar prospect or they trade for an established star that happens to be available.

We should not be concerned how to build contending team with Kopitar and Doughty.
Kopitar is visibly getting slower and Doughty losses some part of his game as well.
To trade best prospects for Jack Eichel at this time will create team with contradicting directions.

 

[Token]

Just for fun;

Sakic took 8 years to build the Aves into the powerhouse they are today.

Yz went 10 years of building to grab the cup with Tampa.

Armstrong with the Blues, 10 years for the one-and -done.

McFee/MacLellan - sheesh, been punching coaches in the tunnel since 1999 - let’s say 13 years.

Penguins - 8 years between cups, couple GMs

Expecting Rob to magically do this in 5 years is just silly.

 

[Rusty Batch]

Just because we add some 23/24 yr old stars to this team by trading some futures doesnt mean we are trying to peak now.

Adding young talented established players to this team is a great way to continue to take steps forward.

The guys we are mostly discussing have values that couldn't be lower, Eichel wants to leave and got injured, Seth Jones is leaving, Marner is more speculative than the other two but Toronto might panic trade him.

Taking advantage of teams in difficult situations and buying low on guys that could be a long term part of our future core should certainly be a part of our rebuild strategy.

 

[KingsFan7824]

With all the overanalyzing we do, I've come to hate the phrase a team built to win the Cup. As though only 4 or so GMs have the Cup as a goal. Every GM is doing what they can in the moment, and if you get a stroke of good luck, you have a contender. A contract at the right time. A trade that ends up vastly in your favor, when no GM is out there looking to lose a trade. A late rd pick that ends up your 1st line.

There's no perfect time to make a trade.

 

[SFKingshomer]

They were in a completely different spot when they made the Richards deal.

 

[LAKings88]

I hope the Russian they signed is a change in policy somewhat. Hope they let him be creative and don’t neuter his skill. Guy is not known for defense or grinding.

 

[Lt Dan]

They were in a completely different spot when they made the Richards deal.

Indeed and we aren't there yet. We are at the add Scuderi and Ryan Smyth stage

 

[tny760]

I hope the Russian they signed is a change in policy somewhat. Hope they let him be creative and don’t neuter his skill. Guy is not known for defense or grinding.

it's so out of left field to me, i have a hard time believing it

there was no room for prokhorkin in this system, why is there gonna be for this guy? i find it hard to believe this dead ass 1-3-1 is just gonna vanish and they're all gonna play to their strengths over the offseason

like i'd love to be proved wrong..