Speculation: 2021-21 LA Kings News/Rumors/Roster discussion

[kovacro]

Correct me if i am wrong but didn't Friedman say he doesn't think the cap will go up for 5 years?

FWIW, I know when Brian Burke was doing radio hits on Sportsnet 590, he mentioned the cap would be flat for at least the next 3 years.

 

[Peter James Bond III]

Isn't identifying which prospects to hold and which to trade on the organization though? I mean they have had years to look at some of our current prospects, shouldn't our organization be expected to have a much better understanding of our current prospects then the teams we are trading with?

From a fans perspective I get it. I see all these prospects and just kind of hope they pan out and have my personal thoughts on which ones will and won't. But I know enough to know that I don't know much. Kings on the other hand get to see some of them every day in practice, know their personalities and work ethic, understand their games far more in depth then we do, etc...

We should expect our organization to properly identify which ones are somewhat expendable and which ones we can't afford to trade.

Good post and I agree. One of the problems is the factor of the degree a prospect will develop and reach their potential. A year ago today, I was not writing Kupari off, but after the
knee injury and not-so-great first yr with the Reign, it was eye opening to see that he got his skating back 100% and was bigger and stronger. Then his play was much better
and he produced. The first recall, he looked tentative. The second recall, he looked confident and began skating the puck with authority. This kid gets better every month.
I also like that besides skating and overall play, he can really shoot the puck. This is just an example of how far a prospect can improve in 1 year...and some do not improve
at all. Some may do ok in the AHL, but cannot make the NHL. It's hard to gauge which player will reach or even exceed their hoped potential. I agree, the organization should have
the best book on their own prospects...and know how hard they work and are committed. I think by giving them cups of coffee and then going back to work on their games...then
a second callup, is the best they can do, to get the best gauge.

 

[Fishhead]

I think so, but some say the ESPN deal may reduce it to a 3 year time frame.

It's for sure going to help. Things look pretty gloomy for the cap, but I don't think it's going to be a 5 year thing.

It absolutely could go up to $90 in 5 years, it's all going to hinge on how fast things recover once all those overpayments are recouped. If fans are itching to come back, then it could go up quickly once it's resolved. If attendance is so-so it will go up a lot slower. My completely non-data driven guess would be more like a $6M rise over the next 5 years, like flat-flat-flat-3M-3M.

All the more reason to take advantage for the Kings. Normally teams can give out a bit of a bigger or longer deal because they know that contract will be a lower percentage of the cap in the future. With things so tight for the next couple years, most teams can't do this without dumping salary because of their short-term cap conditions. The Kings are one of 4 teams that can do this. If it's played right, the Kings will have a good cap advantage when our highly rated prospect pool hits their stride even if we make a bigger move now.

 

[BigKing]

Blue Jackets Monday Gathering: Brad Larsen getting long look, Jackets are overdue in the lottery, and growing interest in Seth Jones

I tend to think Jones is a bit overrated, and he had a down year. I'd prefer Werenski, but even if our right side is stronger than our left, he's a good add at the right price (and cap hit).

The Kings are probably the favorite for every available player as long as said player is coming from a team that values prospects/picks as the prime piece(s) coming its way.

I don't claim to be an expert on other players around the league because I just don't watch enough anymore but I think about the last two CBJ trips to the playoffs when I think about Jones because that's the only time I'm going to watch a CBJ game. Guy just ate minutes out there against very good teams, Toronto not withstanding. He's averaging 29 minutes of ice and has gone for 24 points in 37 career playoff games. Gold medal success with the US team at the junior level along with a WHL championship and Memorial Cup finalist on the resume. Sure, he hasn't won at the NHL level but he's also mostly been with CBJ.

If he truly has fallen off then whatever but Doughty has been called complete trash by most on HF over the past few years because he's playing on bad teams that nobody watches.

You would think that Blake would have a proclivity for defenseman since he was one but most everything he's done with picks, signings and trades has been forward-centric. Since the prospect pool is forward heavy, maybe he would be interested in dipping into that to make the defense better. We can talk about the key areas of weakness on this team, but let's not pretend like they are "set" on defense and all that is needed is a LHD. Offense from the blueline was pathetic last season. Maata had as many points as MacDermid!

 

[tbrown33]

If he truly has fallen off then whatever but Doughty has been called complete trash by most on HF over the past few years because he's playing on bad teams that nobody watches.

The venn diagram of people who think Doughty is trash now and people who forgot Jeff Carter still played in the NHL pre-trade is a circle.

 

[kinghock]

The venn diagram of people who think Doughty is trash now and people who forgot Jeff Carter still played in the NHL pre-trade is a circle.

Doughty is not trash, but he is not the same player he was when Kings won titles.
He is not game changer anymore.
The problem is he believes he still is a game changer…

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The Kings are probably the favorite for every available player as long as said player is coming from a team that values prospects/picks as the prime piece(s) coming its way.

I don't claim to be an expert on other players around the league because I just don't watch enough anymore but I think about the last two CBJ trips to the playoffs when I think about Jones because that's the only time I'm going to watch a CBJ game. Guy just ate minutes out there against very good teams, Toronto not withstanding. He's averaging 29 minutes of ice and has gone for 24 points in 37 career playoff games. Gold medal success with the US team at the junior level along with a WHL championship and Memorial Cup finalist on the resume. Sure, he hasn't won at the NHL level but he's also mostly been with CBJ.

If he truly has fallen off then whatever but Doughty has been called complete trash by most on HF over the past few years because he's playing on bad teams that nobody watches.

You would think that Blake would have a proclivity for defenseman since he was one but most everything he's done with picks, signings and trades has been forward-centric. Since the prospect pool is forward heavy, maybe he would be interested in dipping into that to make the defense better. We can talk about the key areas of weakness on this team, but let's not pretend like they are "set" on defense and all that is needed is a LHD. Offense from the blueline was pathetic last season. Maata had as many points as MacDermid!

I'm with you about Blake doing due diligence on Jones.

And I'm EVEN not saying it's a big deal that he's RHD.

But if we're going to blow our wad on an RHD, can we at least get a dynamic one?

Jones is a redundancy. A fantastic one, but won't help offense from the back end.

I just feel there are much better uses of our many assets than another defensive leaning RHD no matter how many minutes he can eat.

 

[Herby]

Exactly, which is why if Blake ever trades Doughty, he better get a hell of a lot more than Marner.

No team is going to give up more than a consistent 90 point producer entering his 24 year old season for Doughty. If you would rather keep Doughty than do that trade, I understand it but if Blake wanted to get one star for another this would be the avenue he would look at. I would still rather trade some of our redundant prospects for a young star center like Eichel than trade Doughty for a young star winger like Marner.

Either way, for what feels like the 18th straight offseason the issue for the Kings is once again a complete lack of any kind of 1st line talent outside of Kopitar.

 

[Herby]

I'm with you about Blake doing due diligence on Jones.

And I'm EVEN not saying it's a big deal that he's RHD.

But if we're going to blow our wad on an RHD, can we at least get a dynamic one?

Jones is a redundancy. A fantastic one, but won't help offense from the back end.

I just feel there are much better uses of our many assets than another defensive leaning RHD no matter how many minutes he can eat.

Jones is a very good #2 on a contender, and is a a #1 on a non-contender but the offense just hasn't developed the way people expected to warrant giving up a Kings ransom for, especially like you said with RHD being basically the only strength the NHL roster has.

The Kings need to trade some of their capital to make these 1 goal losses into chances to win the game, adding more defense when you scored 2 or less goals in 31 of the 56 games doesn't address that problem.

 

[tomd]

No team is going to give up more than a consistent 90 point producer entering his 24 year old season for Doughty. If you would rather keep Doughty than do that trade, I understand it but if Blake wanted to get one star for another this would be the avenue he would look at. I would still rather trade some of our redundant prospects for a young star center like Eichel than trade Doughty for a young star winger like Marner.

Either way, for what feels like the 18th straight offseason the issue for the Kings is once again a complete lack of any kind of 1st line talent outside of Kopitar.

I know you know this but Blake doesn't control Doughty's future...Doughty does.

 

[SFKingshomer]

Jones won't return a ransom with his pending UFA but he's risky like all players that may be available. I expect Blake to shoot for a star and have to settle.

 

[KINGS17]

Jones is a very good #2 on a contender, and is a a #1 on a non-contender but the offense just hasn't developed the way people expected to warrant giving up a Kings ransom for, especially like you said with RHD being basically the only strength the NHL roster has.

The Kings need to trade some of their capital to make these 1 goal losses into chances to win the game, adding more defense when you scored 2 or less goals in 31 of the 56 games doesn't address that problem.

This depends. I am not an expert on Jones' game, but if he has a better first pass than some of our current defensemen or prospects, I would consider adding him to the roster. A lot of offense is based on getting the puck out of the zone under control instead of just chipping it out.

 

[Herby]

I know you know this but Blake doesn't control Doughty's future...Doughty does.

I understand this, I am also assuming that Doughty would waive his NTC to go home and try and win another cup rather than return to another awful Kings team. This used to be based on an assumption but its pretty clear that Doughty doesn't want to be on a team with no chance.

This depends. I am not an expert on Jones' game, but if he has a better first pass than some of our current defensemen or prospects, I would consider adding him to the roster. A lot of offense is based on getting the puck out of the zone under control instead of just chipping it out.

This is true, but it's also true the Kings don't have anything close to a high end finisher on the NHL roster even if they did have more d-man capable of making a good outlet pass. He'd be a huge strength to Toronto, to the Kings he doesn't address the major issue.

 

[BigKing]

I'm with you about Blake doing due diligence on Jones.

And I'm EVEN not saying it's a big deal that he's RHD.

But if we're going to blow our wad on an RHD, can we at least get a dynamic one?

Jones is a redundancy. A fantastic one, but won't help offense from the back end.

I just feel there are much better uses of our many assets than another defensive leaning RHD no matter how many minutes he can eat.

I'm not saying you are wrong and I'm not saying I'm right but I do agree with you that he is "a fantastic one".

When you look at the Kings best years, who were the dynamic offensive talents on the blueline? Doughty amped it up in the playoffs but he had 36 and 37 points in the 2012 and '14 regular seasons, respectively. What the Kings did have was a defense that could make an outlet pass that, in turn, helped make the offense better.

Doughty has a career regular season/playoff PPG of 0.54/0.61 while Jones is at 0.49/0.65. Drew has his kind of outlier seasons in 2010 and 2018 and Jones has his in 2018 which was probably helped by getting power play time with Panarin.

I agree that Jones isn't dynamic offensively but he's generally going to pace for 40 points with upside for more, plus he turns it on in the playoffs which might be important to this franchise at some point (maybe!). All of a sudden, this team has two real legit RHD for Anderson/Bjornfot to stick to and, hell, you might be able to lower how many minutes each of these guys has to eat since the RHD3 should be adequate enough to play decent minutes as well: especially if Roy wasn't included in the deal. It would be nice to be able to cut Doughty's minutes a bit since he has so many years left on the contract.

I get the argument against Jones but I just don't think it should be dismissed outright. There are arguments against trading for a forward--especially a center--because that is the position of strength in the prospect pool. There are arguments against any defenseman that isn't a LHD because we are "fine" on the right side (nobody brings up Faber in this but they should since he is a RHS). Then there is the argument to just not do anything because they aren't ready yet and I can respect that argument as well. There are so many ways to skin this thing as this is really a crossroads of a summer.

The thing is that it seems Blake is going to be looking to bring in players that can make an impact and, when you finish where the Kings have the last three years (or seven, if you like) and none of your prospects are in the "can't miss" category, it is hard to say there are any redundancies except for mediocre-to-garbage players. I believe for good or for bad, Blake is going to make an impact move for an impact player. There will be pros and cons to all the ones available and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Blake still has a ton of DL guys in the scouting department...does Blake believe in building from the net out and then down the middle? His first signing--or one of his first ones--was Cal Petersen. He's pretty much drafted C at every turn but did start to look harder at defense with Grans/Faber in Round 2 last year. Much like DL, they haven't really been hot on drafting wingers. It wouldn't surprise me if he dipped into the prospect pool at C for someone like Jones since there doesn't look like anything like him in the prospect pool. Blake can then just set-and-forget his top 4 for years to come.

 

[YP44]

Doughty is not trash, but he is not the same player he was when Kings won titles.
He is not game changer anymore.
The problem is he believes he still is a game changer…

I don't think it is a problem that he wants to be that game changer. There are many things I do not care for with Drew, but his competitiveness and desire to be the best (even when maybe he no longer can be) is not one of them.

Would you rather have him accept a top 4 or a diminished role?

 

[SFKingshomer]

Jones is an upgrade on Voynov and likely the best defenseman available. If you can negotiate an extension then it's pretty much a no brainer to get him. It pushes Roy down to the bottom pair or he can be used as trade bait. Having 2 defenseman logging 25 plus minutes is huge.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Jones is an upgrade on Voynov and likely the best defenseman available. If you can negotiate an extension then it's pretty much a no brainer to get him. It pushes Roy down to the bottom pair or he can be used as trade bait. Having 2 defenseman logging 25 plus minutes is huge.

And I think that's my biggest 'problem' with Jones. I'd absolutely NOT complain that we got him for a lot of reasons outlined above. I just thing 1. He's a 'name brand' and the cost will be heavy. 2. He's not the 'dynamic' presence we're reportedly after. 3. Without an extension, he's a flight risk; with a pre-negotiated extension, he's likely massively expensive.

I would also argue there's some opportunity cost there, as well. I'm not saying Sergachev is available so this is likely a moot point, but bear with me rhetorically, the difference between Jones and Sergachev's (or Werenski, etc.) trade values aren't likely as high as the differences they would make for this roster.

 

[kinghock]

I don't think it is a problem that he wants to be that game changer. There are many things I do not care for with Drew, but his competitiveness and desire to be the best (even when maybe he no longer can be) is not one of them.

Would you rather have him accept a top 4 or a diminished role?

I have no problem with his competitiveness when he is playing.
I have problem with his competitiveness outside of playing when he tells management what the best way to develop team is.

 

[BigKing]

Jones is an upgrade on Voynov and likely the best defenseman available. If you can negotiate an extension then it's pretty much a no brainer to get him. It pushes Roy down to the bottom pair or he can be used as trade bait. Having 2 defenseman logging 25 plus minutes is huge.

But it would be nice to cut those guys down to 22 a night, if you were to add Jones.

I get the argument that it is a "luxury" move but one can also argue that adding a very good player to this current roster isn't a luxury move because there aren't many very good players on the roster to begin with.

But, sure, I'd rather have Werenski for various reasons. I just think that Blake is going to take a swing and that swing is going to be on who is available this summer. Trading Werenski makes no sense: CBJ needs to make him a cornerstone of their future.

I also get the argument for Hamilton since he wouldn't cost any prospects but something about him just doesn't sit well with me. Like, I watch him and think to myself "This guy sucks, right?" when I know that he doesn't. One thing that the stats reflect, however, is that his PPG rate declines in the playoffs v. the regular season...0.56 down to 0.47. He's also 28 in two weeks while Jones is 27 in October. I think I'd rather just pass on Hamilton altogether.

*edit* I'm also probably horrible at this since I don't watch much of any non-Kings games outside of the playoffs. When I've watched Jones the past two playoffs, I see a stud workhorse and that's what I'm basing this all on. When I see a Hamilton, I see a nice player but not a foundational piece. We also will never be getting tougher with a defense that features a Dougie, Mikey and Toby as first names.

 

[DryIslandBartender]

No team is going to give up more than a consistent 90 point producer entering his 24 year old season for Doughty. If you would rather keep Doughty than do that trade, I understand it but if Blake wanted to get one star for another this would be the avenue he would look at. I would still rather trade some of our redundant prospects for a young star center like Eichel than trade Doughty for a young star winger like Marner.

Either way, for what feels like the 18th straight offseason the issue for the Kings is once again a complete lack of any kind of 1st line talent outside of Kopitar.

I’d disagree some, the Kings need a winger that can score so BAD. With Eichel, the Kings need to trade futures and then have a problem with Kopi, Byfield still on the roster and nobody really on the wings, and the prospect pool is depleted.

Trading for Marner makes more sense (even more so if they win the lottery tonight) in that the Kings get an upgrade in scoring. Makes more sense for the future as well, given that he’s 24 and on a long term contract and eases the pressure off the Thomases, Kaliyev’s to score. Kings won’t replace Doughty but if Blake can build a backend of 6 guys that are competent and share the load, it won’t be a terrible loss, imo.

 

[DryIslandBartender]

I forgot to add Herby, to K17’s point, that the Leafs would have to sweeten the deal for Doughty. Marner didn’t impress in the playoffs and doesn’t have the credentials/hardware that Doughty has. They will have to add a player or future to make it doable.

 

[SFKingshomer]

The "dynamic defenseman" thing is funny to me because there's about 10 or less of those guys in the league and they most likely aren't available. Barrie is available but probably to the highest bidder and he sucks defensively. Off the top of my head and I'm sure I forgot some...


Makar
Barrie
Heiskanen
Chycrun
Dahlin
Girard
Werenski
Josi

 

[BigKing]

The "dynamic defenseman" thing is funny to me because there's about 10 or less of those guys in the league and they most likely aren't available. Barrie is available but probably to the highest bidder and he sucks defensively. Off the top of my head and I'm sure I forgot some...


Makar
Barrie
Heiskanen
Chycrun
Dahlin
Girard
Werenski
Josi

I think Jones was the 28th highest scoring defenseman last season playing on a team that finished 29th in goals scored. Sure, Werenski got hurt and would have bumped him further down the list and there could be others in that spot but Jones isn't Rob Scuderi out there. I mean, if you assume every team has at least a #1 defenseman then Jones sits in that Top 30 for scoring from a defenseman while not being a sieve.

I agree that the "dynamic" thing is kind of funny. What does that mean, exactly? 20 goal potential from the blueline? Not a lot of that hanging around. 50 points? Kind of the same deal.

If you can play 20+ minutes a night in all situations, pot 40+ points and be good defensively than you can play for me. I don't know if that is "dynamic" enough but it's pretty damn good.

 

[SFKingshomer]

I still think Gostisbehr is the guy you go after because he can run a PP and won't cost a ton. There's little downside with a decent upside. Save the assets to add a couple forwards.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Doughty is not trash, but he is not the same player he was when Kings won titles.
He is not game changer anymore.
The problem is he believes he still is a game changer…

He was in his early 20s when the Kings won titles.