Speculation: 2021-21 LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster discussion part V

[No Name The Nameless]

Forget thinking about that first. I hope it’s traded with a Vilardi type for a big upgrade at D.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I honestly think the #1 need and usage for that top pick (besides a trade) should be the best skilled big/tough guy there is on the board -- regardless of position. Someone who hits and is a physical presence on the ice and doesn't allow any Sh!t...whoever that guy is with the best NHL skills. Get him.

I would never say that before when drafting. But it's so desperately needed in this organization. Plus, we have enough skill throughout....and enough prospects (esp. Cs and RHD) to trade for other positions as needed.

That's so true, as long as it's not a Colton Teubert kind of reach! I'm glad they seem to know the lack of size and toughness, by moving up to draft the 6'6" Samuel Helenius and already signed him.
Seems like they want him over here end of his Liiga season, perhaps? With having 2 years in Liiga and 1 in the AHL, could possibly be playing some NHL games by end of next season?

 

[kingsfan]

I honestly think the #1 need and usage for that top pick (besides a trade) should be the best skilled big/tough guy there is on the board -- regardless of position. Someone who hits and is a physical presence on the ice and doesn't allow any Sh!t...whoever that guy is with the best NHL skills. Get him.

I would never say that before when drafting. But it's so desperately needed in this organization. Plus, we have enough skill throughout....and enough prospects (esp. Cs and RHD) to trade for other positions as needed.

You pick BPA and trade for what you need. We needed some sandpaper and dealt a 4th for Lemieux. Ryan Reaves cost the Rangers a 3rd I think? This league is drifting more and more to skill, there's few if any tough guys worth a 1st anymore. We should pick the BPA -especially if we finish with a top 10 pick again- and start moving our immense collection of prospects for more defined needs.

 

[lumbergh]

Forget thinking about that first. I hope it’s traded with a Vilardi type for a big upgrade at D.

At where the Kings are in the standings, that first round draft choice should be considered untouchable.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

With back to backs, I am hoping Gabe will be back in....but I think it would have taken an off game by someone yesterday and there really was no one that stood out as having a poor game....except maybe Brown. But he will never be scratched.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I stopped reading at "almost anything would have worked today." No, it wouldn't. If almost anything would have worked, we wouldn't be a 2-5-1 team. We made changes and won. Convincingly too. We've won as many games with today's line up as we have with any other line ups combined so far in this short season and all you can do is call sending down Tkachev a "horseshit move." It's a move that maybe didn't lead to us winning, but it certainly didn't cause us to lose. I'd rather do these kind of moves than throw Tkachev and Vilardi out there, like you recommend, when they have been the worst two forwards so far this season, all so we can "dEvElOp ThEm." They've had years to develop already and they are getting bypassed by kids younger than they are. Do something or hit the farm.

I mean, if you can't see the difference between the Blues and Canadiens, that's on you.

We'll see if TM still looks like a genius today.

That being said there had been plenty of encouraging indicators leading up to this game that felt like there would be some sort of offense happening so we will see if they can carry that forward. I'd rather be wrong here than right. But I'm still of little faith at this point.

All of that aside I had a little chuckle when I realized the opposition of our user tags

 

[KingsFan7824]

Forget thinking about that first. I hope it’s traded with a Vilardi type for a big upgrade at D.

Might have to start thinking the 1st and a Kaliyev/Kupari type if you want a big upgrade on D.

 

[kingsfan]

I mean, if you can't see the difference between the Blues and Canadiens, that's on you.

We'll see if TM still looks like a genius today.

That being said there had been plenty of encouraging indicators leading up to this game that felt like there would be some sort of offense happening so we will see if they can carry that forward. I'd rather be wrong here than right. But I'm still of little faith at this point.

All of that aside I had a little chuckle when I realized the opposition of our user tags

If you can't see how the Habs shut out the Sharks and then we put five up on them, that's on you. I mean, you can spin it however you wish but this is the NHL, where Buffalo is 6-1-1 in a season -beating Tampa Bay as well in there- when some openly asked if they'd win 20 games all season. You don't ever play a team and say 'almost anything would have worked,' way to much parity for that.

And LOL at the user tags. Yeah man, I had to post that as a joke, since the dude didn't seem to have a fan around here. Figured I'd be his default board defender.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Team just hasn't been the same since losing Macdermid.

Also hoping we can snag Theodore in the Eichel trade.

 

[Fat Elvis]

With back to backs, I am hoping Gabe will be back in....but I think it would have taken an off game by someone yesterday and there really was no one that stood out as having a poor game....except maybe Brown. But he will never be scratched.

Brown is the least effective forward for the amount of ice-time given. Not earned, given

 

[kilowatt]

Team just hasn't been the same since losing Macdermid.

Also hoping we can snag Theodore in the Eichel trade.

Team was absolute shit with MacDermid

 

[kingsfan]

We've played 8 games since we lost MacDermid and are 2-5-1. I'd say we're every bit the same so far.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Might have to start thinking the 1st and a Kaliyev/Kupari type if you want a big upgrade on D.

Put Kupari in there with the first rounder and Gabe. Do it today before people realize Gabe cannot handle the puck or the draft pick gets too good.

 

[DoktorJeep]

I compared three somewhat arbitrary sets of 9 game series to see if there is a noticeable change in performance at the macro level and how the team might project the rest of the way. Here is a snapshot of this season's first 9 games compared to last season's first and final 9 games.

Season - Games	Record	Rank	Goals	Goals per game	Special teams	Shots per game	Faceoffs
21/22 season - First 9 games	3-5-1, 7 pts, .389 P%	26th of 32 teams	24 GF, 27 GA	2.67 GF/GP, 3.00 GA/GP	23.5 PP%, 69.2 PK%	35.8 SF/GP, 29.7 SA/GP	51.2 FOW%
20/21 season - Last 9 games	4-5-0, 8 pts, .444 P%	25th place out of 31 teams	21 GF, 25 GA	2.33 GF/GP, 2.78 GA/GP	11.8 PP%, 78.3 PK%	23.8 SF/GP, 31.3 SA/GP	47.4 FOW%
20/21 season - First 9 games	3-4-2, 8 pts, .444 P%	26th place out of 31 teams	26 GF, 29 GA	2.89 GF/GP, 3.22 GA/GP	21.6 PP%, 87.9 PK%	28.2 SF/GP, 31.8 SA/GP	49.6 FOW%

Comparing those numbers, the team has not overall noticeably improved or worsened. When I add this to my viewings, I see a team performing at the same level as the previous incarnation.

To collect 80 points the team would need to win games at a .500 P% rate. 90 points would be a .568 P% rate. Raising the current performance 10-15% seems achievable since it is early in the season. There is time to improve only 5% in the next 9 games and still have the runway to get between 80-90 points.

Even with that runway, the horizon to 80 points gets further away if the team keeps winning at the current rate. The key will be to limit the streaks of games where you get 0 points. Finding a way to get to OT is the clearest path to improvement. This team needs to become good at getting the loser points in order to improve in the short term.

 

[YP44]

Forget thinking about that first. I hope it’s traded with a Vilardi type for a big upgrade at D.

after the lotto maybe...if LA has a top 2 pick absolutely not

 

[kingsfan]

after the lotto maybe...if LA has a top 2 pick absolutely not

I'd definitely lotto protect it

 

[KINGS17]

I compared three somewhat arbitrary sets of 9 game series to see if there is a noticeable change in performance at the macro level and how the team might project the rest of the way. Here is a snapshot of this season's first 9 games compared to last season's first and final 9 games.

Season - Games	Record	Rank	Goals	Goals per game	Special teams	Shots per game	Faceoffs
21/22 season - First 9 games	3-5-1, 7 pts, .389 P%	26th of 32 teams	24 GF, 27 GA	2.67 GF/GP, 3.00 GA/GP	23.5 PP%, 69.2 PK%	35.8 SF/GP, 29.7 SA/GP	51.2 FOW%
20/21 season - Last 9 games	4-5-0, 8 pts, .444 P%	25th place out of 31 teams	21 GF, 25 GA	2.33 GF/GP, 2.78 GA/GP	11.8 PP%, 78.3 PK%	23.8 SF/GP, 31.3 SA/GP	47.4 FOW%
20/21 season - First 9 games	3-4-2, 8 pts, .444 P%	26th place out of 31 teams	26 GF, 29 GA	2.89 GF/GP, 3.22 GA/GP	21.6 PP%, 87.9 PK%	28.2 SF/GP, 31.8 SA/GP	49.6 FOW%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comparing those numbers, the team has not overall noticeably improved or worsened. When I add this to my viewings, I see a team performing at the same level as the previous incarnation.

To collect 80 points the team would need to win games at a .500 P% rate. 90 points would be a .568 P% rate. Raising the current performance 10-15% seems achievable since it is early in the season. There is time to improve only 5% in the next 9 games and still have the runway to get between 80-90 points.

Even with that runway, the horizon to 80 points gets further away if the team keeps winning at the current rate. The key will be to limit the streaks of games where you get 0 points. Finding a way to get to OT is the clearest path to improvement. This team needs to become good at getting the loser points in order to improve in the short term.

...but did you factor in solar flares and a return to Pacific Standard Time?

 

[King'sPawn]

I compared three somewhat arbitrary sets of 9 game series to see if there is a noticeable change in performance at the macro level and how the team might project the rest of the way. Here is a snapshot of this season's first 9 games compared to last season's first and final 9 games.

Season - Games	Record	Rank	Goals	Goals per game	Special teams	Shots per game	Faceoffs
21/22 season - First 9 games	3-5-1, 7 pts, .389 P%	26th of 32 teams	24 GF, 27 GA	2.67 GF/GP, 3.00 GA/GP	23.5 PP%, 69.2 PK%	35.8 SF/GP, 29.7 SA/GP	51.2 FOW%
20/21 season - Last 9 games	4-5-0, 8 pts, .444 P%	25th place out of 31 teams	21 GF, 25 GA	2.33 GF/GP, 2.78 GA/GP	11.8 PP%, 78.3 PK%	23.8 SF/GP, 31.3 SA/GP	47.4 FOW%
20/21 season - First 9 games	3-4-2, 8 pts, .444 P%	26th place out of 31 teams	26 GF, 29 GA	2.89 GF/GP, 3.22 GA/GP	21.6 PP%, 87.9 PK%	28.2 SF/GP, 31.8 SA/GP	49.6 FOW%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comparing those numbers, the team has not overall noticeably improved or worsened. When I add this to my viewings, I see a team performing at the same level as the previous incarnation.

To collect 80 points the team would need to win games at a .500 P% rate. 90 points would be a .568 P% rate. Raising the current performance 10-15% seems achievable since it is early in the season. There is time to improve only 5% in the next 9 games and still have the runway to get between 80-90 points.

Even with that runway, the horizon to 80 points gets further away if the team keeps winning at the current rate. The key will be to limit the streaks of games where you get 0 points. Finding a way to get to OT is the clearest path to improvement. This team needs to become good at getting the loser points in order to improve in the short term.

Thank you for doing this and interesting results. I do think there is a slight difference between last year's team and this year's team that can't be picked up in these statistics:

Playing with a lead.

You note there is a significant improvement on shots. I would venture if you were to look at "expected goals" that the results would be higher as well. They are taking more dangerous shots insread of softies from the perimeter.

Most notably, they aren't consistently trailing within the first five minutes, either. The team largely looked unprepared last season. This season, they are executing better, but having issues with finishing.

They are not a bottom-five team, even if emotionally they feel like one, after a loss. Several of their losses were very close.

They have been largely outmatched by St Louis. But some teams just naturally do better against others.

I think the Kings are closer to a middling team who can push for a playoff spot. They're better than their record indicates. Last year, I thought they were worse than their record indicated.

 

[BringTheReign]

I'll add some analytics color to the convo above. I think KP is right that they are better than their record indicates, but I think we're also still dealing with a lack of shooting talent/offensive creativity. I think that will be improved as the kids cement spots, and I think Kupari, Kaliyev, Andersson, etc. are all on their way. There is also the fact that Cal and Quick haven't gotten off to the greatest start, with the former uncharacteristically at -2 GAAA. The last tweet in particular is interesting given Vilardi's struggles. We're generating a ton of chances off the rush (which is completely new for this team and speaks to the new system TMac is putting in place), and that is exactly Vilardi's weakness. He is skilled at controlling the puck once in the zone, but he is not a carrier.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Thanks for adding in the in depth analysis and advanced stats. I agree that considering the key injuries, the team isn’t as bad as they look. The only interesting part for me is to see the improvement that comes from within the prospect base.

The goal for the season is to improve, according to management and the players. For me improvement is less about playing in significant games late in the year and more about individual prospects cementing roles for next year. If the tweeners get further squeezed out in the process, then the season is an unqualified success whatever the P% rate.

In fact, a season with a top 3 pick and Kupari and Kaliyev scoring 25-35 points individually while getting 10-15 minutes of ice time each may be the best thing for this franchise.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I was really high on Kempe pre-draft (I had him top 15, borderline top 10) and I loved that pick at 29. And his early pro career it really looked like the offense was there just about to break out. Its started to look more and more like that wont happen though eh. Very few players breakout 25yo or older. Unfortunate.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The thing that isn't captured in the advanced stats as cleanly is the intangible issues, like those breakdowns vs. Minny to start last year or the previous losing record when leading going into the 3rd this year.

Last couple of games they showed more composure and ability to lock it down or at least play hard/go at the opponent instead of just collapse and pray.

The 5v5 play being a general positive even with kind of rough results (due to shooting talent and goaltending lows) is a very positive sign and one that keeps improving. Add a little shooting luck, more stable goaltending, and tighten up special teams and there's no reason this shouldn't be a blackhole team unless they're held back and/or underperforming.

 

[BringTheReign]

In fact, a season with a top 3 pick and Kupari and Kaliyev scoring 25-35 points individually while getting 10-15 minutes of ice time each may be the best thing for this franchise.

We were rewarded by the hockey gods for our late season win streak in leaping up to get Byfield. If we're playing important games late but still miss, we might get rewarded again as you say!

 

[driller1]

I think they're more fun to watch because they actually forecheck this year and cause turnovers, which leads to some glorious scoring chances that are missed, which then leads to more forechecking, etc etc.

Last year, they'd lose the puck and retreat into the dreaded 1-3-1.

I'd also say we're improved insofar as Doughty isn't playing right now and the Kings are competent (or at least equal to last year's product). I just don't think people appreciate how good Doughty really is.

 

[tbrown33]

I think they're more fun to watch because they actually forecheck this year and cause turnovers, which leads to some glorious scoring chances that are missed, which then leads to more forechecking, etc etc.

Last year, they'd lose the puck and retreat into the dreaded 1-3-1.

I'd also say we're improved insofar as Doughty isn't playing right now and the Kings are competent (or at least equal to last year's product). I just don't think people appreciate how good Doughty really is.

They also lead the league in rushes. Rushes are fun as hell.