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2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

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Adam Michaels

Adam Michaels

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Jun 12, 2016
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The thing that makes this unpredictable is that Habs don't have a good enough team to make a deep run, but they have a good enough team to pull an upset in the Play-In Series, especially in a Best-of-5, effectively killing the high draft pick we feel they need more than anything else right now.
 
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Big Empty

Big Empty

He's a big horse
Jan 27, 2020
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CHfan1 said:
With his spleen injury I didn’t think Kotkaniemi would be able to play. Domi is also a ?
Click to expand...
Haven't heard anything about Domi not playing yet. Kakko deals with Type 1 diabetes and celiac disease and I think he's playing. Kotka got injured on March 9th. Training camp is likely to start in mid to late July. It will have been at least 4 months and I think spleen injuries only last 4-6 weeks. Not an expert obviously but I think he will be back.
 
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Adam Michaels

Adam Michaels

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Since players will not apparently be able to fight or even get into a scrum post-whistle, Weber's stare should come in real handy in these social distancing times.
 
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Cole Caulifield

Cole Caulifield

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Apr 22, 2004
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Ozymandias said:
You realize you're not preaching to the choir here, buddy?
Click to expand...

I basically don't want it to be a what if situation where we will always wonder if we would have won the lottery if NHL hadn't pulled this BS. At least, if the order remains the same, we don't get screwed as much, somehow. Under previous rules we had like a 20% shot at getting a top 3 pick. I haven't done the math but I know it's less now. At least, if the result is in that 80% window, then we didn't lose that shot at a top 3 pick. It's all stupid rationalization anyway. Bottom line we get screwed again.
 
CristianoRonaldo

CristianoRonaldo

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Apr 7, 2014
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In your head
Canadienna said:
If we had lost just one more game we'd be guaranteed a top 10 pick and have a significantly improved chance at Laf.

Glad we were riding Carey Price into the god damned ground when it was clear we were going to miss.... :ha::ha::ha:
Click to expand...

We are used to it now, it was the same thing in 2016, 2018... This team can't do anything properly. We even suck at sucking.
 
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MarkovsKnee

MarkovsKnee

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Adam Michaels said:
Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?
Click to expand...

Team A only exists hypothetically in the 1st draw. The 2nd lottery is to ASSIGN teams the letters.

For instance, phase 1: 1. Detroit. 2. Team B. 3. Team G.

Order is

1. Detroit
2. Team B
3. Team G
4. Ottawa
5. Ottawa
6. L.A
7. Anaheim
8. New Jersey
9. Buffalo

Play-in Round: 8 teams lose out. Those 8 teams go into a draw to figure out who is B and who is G.

If Montreal loses, they can still win picks #2 or #3 by drawing B & G, respectively. If Montreal wins, they get pick #16 and Pens go into the draw.
 
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Per Sjoblom

Per Sjoblom

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Adam Michaels said:
Since players will not apparently be able to fight or even get into a scrum post-whistle, Weber's stare should come in real handy in these social distancing times.
Click to expand...


shutterstock_20337352.jpg
 
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Gains

Gains

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Apr 29, 2012
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Are the odds of phase 2 weighted based on point% ? Or do all 8 teams have the same odds ?

Because I feel like now the likeliest scenario is that we end up picking 9th or 10th.
 
CHfan1

CHfan1

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Since the NHL changed the lottery system in 2016 to 3 teams, 4 times has someone in the 8-15 range has a team moved up.

2017 PHI 13 to 2nd
2017 DAL 8 to 3rd
2018 CAR 11 to 2nd
2019 CHI 10 to 3rd
 
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sheed36

sheed36

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Jan 8, 2005
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I can see how this draft lottery will go now. A team currently between 8-15 will win the phase 1 lottery and get the 1st OV pick. Since Crosby is getting up there in age the Pens will lose against the Habs and then win the phase 2 lottery and draft their next superstar from the QMJHL to learn under Crosby and Malkin for a few years.

Pretty crappy to think a team that was 7th (Pens) or 9th (Oilers) in the NHL during the reg season could possibly lose their play in rounds and then potentially be drafting 1st OV or even top 3. :(
 
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sheed36

sheed36

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Gains said:
Are the odds of phase 2 weighted based on point% ? Or do all 8 teams have the same odds ?

Because I feel like now the likeliest scenario is that we end up picking 9th or 10th.
Click to expand...

The teams in the phase 2 lottery would all have equal 12.5% odds which is pretty crappy for the lowest seeded Habs if they lose to the Pens.
 
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WillysBeoulve

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Jul 10, 2019
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I understand that on a "draft standpoint", teams like Pitts and Carolina benefit from this formula...

But those teams (and their fans) want to be in the playoff and have a shot at the cup... and the odds of that happening dropped significantly...

Pittburgh had like 95% to be part of the top 16... and now they need to play a best of 5, after months of inactivity.

Despite us sucking, I think our odds of us winning the qualifying round is way better than 5%...

And if no qualifying teams win a lottery pick, they will draft 15...

To be honest... Nobody really wins...

Actually, I feel the bad teams have increased odds of winning the cup compared to previous years, albeit still relatively low...
There's so many unpredictable factors in this crapshoot format (rust, increase risks of injury to key players by playing high stake games after months of inactivity, rebuilding chemistry, playoff atmosphere in an empty arena, no "home game advantage" except last changes) that it might sadly be our best chance at the cup since the last 10-15 years...
 
WeThreeKings

WeThreeKings

Demidov is a HAB
Sep 19, 2006
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I can confidently say that the NHL managed to screw up everything they had to do this year.

1. They could have held the draft lottery and done a virtual draft early on during the pandemic. This would have brought in a record number of viewers, a new audience, brought income while they figured out a better strategy, and removed any of the nonsense we saw today. I know there was concern about a team winning the lottery and winning the cup, but those odds are very small and the worst case scenario is you freeze their pick to the end of the first round next year.

2. Following the virtual draft, they could have come up with a return to play strategy that involved a proposal that involved the following:
2 hub cities, both housing 12 teams.
Those 12 teams are divided in two, leaving 4 groups of 6.
Those 6 teams would be given aggregate amount of points based on their likelihood to make the play-offs when the season was suspended.
This means that a team like Boston would have to go 0-5-0 in their round robin and have the bottom two teams have records of 4-1-0 to miss.
Top four teams in each grouping get promoted to the play-offs.

3. Should they have chosen not to have a virtual, early draft. They could have waited for the above scenario to play out before doing the draft lottery. This way they can assign the odds based to the way they were at the beginning of the year.
Even if they chose not to do that and wanted to do a 2 phase lottery, they could at least honor the weight based on their points percentage. There's no reason why Montreal and Edmonton should have the same odds in the phase 2 lottery.
 
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WeThreeKings

WeThreeKings

Demidov is a HAB
Sep 19, 2006
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The other stupid thing is they don't even know if they can return to play..

What happens if they draw the top 3 picks and one or two of them are a team to be named later (which just makes the draw itself so f***ing stupid, I digress) and then the play-in never happens?

Then you're running a phase 2 lottery with the same odds that the teams would have had previous to that, or they're gonna bastardize it and add more teams into it.

They are risking so much by doing a half draft lottery in June when we haven't even determined the play-in series can be played.
 
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