2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[26Mats]

The most important thing is that, we have a shot at winning the draft lottery, since we'll almost certainly lose to the Penguins.

Having said that, man, if we had finished 13th instead of 12th, we would have just as good of a shot at getting Lafreniere as any other team...

 

[Big Empty]

Is it possible that the Habs win the draft lottery before the qualifying round and decide to tank the series?

Edit: If any of the placeholder teams win the draft lottery, everyone that lost in the qualifying round has an equal shot at getting that pick? Is it just between the teams that lost in the qualifying round or the non-resuming clubs too? So if a placeholder wins the 1st overall, we won't know who actually won it until after the qualifying round.

Do I have it right?

 

[GordonGraham]

ok tell me if this is right:

Lets pretend at the first lottery that Detroit wins 1st OA, Ottawa wins 2nd OA and a Placeholder wins 3rd OA.
They will announce on the 26th that the draft order is:

1) Detroit
2) Ottawa
3) Winner of draft lottery #2
4) Ottawa
5) LA
6)Anaheim
7) New Jersey
8) Buffalo
9-15) The rest of the losing play-in teams in inverse order of regular season standing.

So assuming Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they have a 12.5% chance of drafting 3rd OA and if they lose that they will draft 9th.
If they beat Pittsburgh they draft 16th.

100% on the money

 

[sheed36]

But what if there is 2 of the top 3 picks? They would have to do 2 separate lotteries right? I thought I read that somewhere, the team that won the first lottery is removed, odds are readjusted, and they do another lottery for the 2nd top 3 pick. If all 3 picks belong to teams 8-15, then they could just do 1 lottery with any team eligible to move up, but they could also do 3 separate lotteries and remove the previous winners.

From the nhl.com article.

"The number of drawings in the Second Phase would depend on how many picks in the First Phase are won by teams that lost in the Qualifying Round."

So from that it seems if there are more than one top 3 pick available they'll just draw again until the spots are filled from the phase 2 teams.

 

[Canadienna]

So will we know at the time we play the penguins if that loser-spot will have won a top 3 spot?

Cause that could lead to some sketchy scenarios.

 

[CH25]

Is it possible that the Habs win the draft lottery before the qualifying round and decide to tank the series?

Are we even forced to ice our full team if we stand to lose a top 5 pick by winning ?

 

[CHfan1]

ok tell me if this is right:

Lets pretend at the first lottery that Detroit wins 1st OA, Ottawa wins 2nd OA and a Placeholder wins 3rd OA.
They will announce on the 26th that the draft order is:

1) Detroit
2) Ottawa
3) Winner of draft lottery #2
4) Ottawa
5) LA
6)Anaheim
7) New Jersey
8) Buffalo
9-15) The rest of the losing play-in teams in inverse order of regular season standing.

So assuming Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they have a 12.5% chance of drafting 3rd OA and if they lose that they will draft 9th.
If they beat Pittsburgh they draft 16th.

That is correct.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

To, hopefully, uncomplicate things, here is basically the gist of it all:

If Habs Beat Pens:
Habs pick between 16th and 31st (depending how far they get in playoffs)


If Habs Lose to Pens:
- Phase 1 goes as planned (meaning ONLY the top-7 teams win the top-3 lotteries): Habs pick 8th. (74.5% chance OVERALL ODDS).
- Phase 2 necessary (a, or several, non-top-7 team(s) win the top-3 lotteries): Habs can pick Top-3 (~3% chance per placeholder that makes the top-3 OVERALL ODDS) or between 9th-11th (16.5-22.5% chance depending how many placeholders make the top-3 OVERALL ODDS).

 

[CHfan1]

Is it possible that the Habs win the draft lottery before the qualifying round and decide to tank the series?

No. Only the collective group of teams 8-15 win that pick or picks. There would be a separate lottery then to see who gets those pick(s).

 

[Big Empty]

Everyone, to uncomplicate things, here is basically the gist of it all:

If Habs Beat Pens:
Habs pick between 16th and 31st (depending how far they get in playoffs)


If Habs Lose to Pens:
- Phase 1 goes as planned (meaning ONLY the top-7 teams win the top-3 lotteries): Habs pick 8th. (74.5% chance this happens).
- Phase 2 necessary (a, or several, non-top-7 team(s) win the top-3 lotteries): Habs can pick Top-3 (~3% chance this happens) or between 9th-11th (22.5% chance this happens).

If a placeholder team wins the draft lottery, don't all the placeholder team have a 12.5% chance?

 

[sheed36]

ok tell me if this is right:

Lets pretend at the first lottery that Detroit wins 1st OA, Ottawa wins 2nd OA and a Placeholder wins 3rd OA.
They will announce on the 26th that the draft order is:

1) Detroit
2) Ottawa
3) Winner of draft lottery #2
4) Ottawa
5) LA
6)Anaheim
7) New Jersey
8) Buffalo
9-15) The rest of the losing play-in teams in inverse order of regular season standing.

So assuming Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they have a 12.5% chance of drafting 3rd OA and if they lose that they will draft 9th.
If they beat Pittsburgh they draft 16th.

Yup that looks about right to me.

Except for all the 8 losing qualifying teams having the same 12.5% odds of winning a potential phase 2 lottery for any potential top 3 picks it's not terrible I guess.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

If a placeholder team wins the draft lottery, don't all the placeholder team have a 12.5% chance?

Those are for overall odds. So basically the chances the Habs win the lottery is about 3% (since there is a 24.5% chance a Placeholder team makes top-3 - and all 8 losing-Qualifying "Placeholder" Teams have an equal 12.5% chance of winning). Not very inspiring.

 

[Big Empty]

Those are for overall odds. So basically the chances the Habs win Lafreniere is about 3% lol. Not very inspiring.

No comprendo. How does it go from 12.5% to 3%?

 

[WeThreeKings]

The fact that the last three pages are multiple people trying to understand this proposal tells you all you need to know.

It needlessly sucks.

At work, I know if I need to explain something more than once. What I've conceived doesn't make enough sense.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

This is the worst outcome for the Habs and best outcome for the Pens.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

No comprendo. How does it go from 12.5% to 3%?

Because the Habs do not have a 12.5% chance of winning the lottery.

If they lose to Pittsburgh, and a Placeholder team makes the top-3 (which is 24.5% odds), Montreal THEN has a 12.5% chance (of that 24.5%) to win that Placeholder top-3 spot. So 12.5% out of that Placeholder 24.5% = 3.0625% odds.

 

[CHfan1]

The Habs can pick in the following spots 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 28, 29, 30, 31 in the first round.

As a note the play in round doesn’t just matter for the 1st round, the Habs have picks in later rounds that could get changed as well. Hoping Edmonton beats Chicago.

 

[Kimota]

Why did they complicate all this shit for no reasons? playoff format is stupid, draft format is stupid

Should have kept things as it was for the playoffs (16 teams) and do the old format for the draft, looking at the regular season for order.

 

[WeThreeKings]

A lot of work went into a RTP and draft lottery format that both suck ass and get everything wrong

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

This is the worst outcome for the Habs and best outcome for the Pens.

Exactly this.

This screws Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, and other bottom-teams royally, but greatly benefits good teams like Pittsburgh, Carolina, NYI, Edmonton, Toronto , etc, should they lose in these Qualifying Rounds.

At this point, all I want is for NO qualifying team to make the top-3, and MTL loses to Pittsburgh, so I can be assured Montreal at least secures the 8th pick (since this "top-8-deep" draft takes a hard left after pick #8).

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I can’t believe MB didn’t kick and scream after being informed of the draft rules. Totally unacceptable in my opinion.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The fact that the last three pages are multiple people trying to understand this proposal tells you all you need to know.

It needlessly sucks.

At work, I know if I need to explain something more than once. What I've conceived doesn't make enough sense.

This should be stickied

Gimmicky nhl trying to make noise

 

[sheed36]

So will we know at the time we play the penguins if that loser-spot will have won a top 3 spot?

Cause that could lead to some sketchy scenarios.

Phase 1 of the draft lottery will be on June 26th so we'll know if a potential top 3 pick or more than one top 3 picks will be available for the 8 qualifying loser teams in the phase 2 lottery.

So if a team currently in 8-15th place wins a top 3 pick during the phase 1 lottery that top 3 pick will only be a placeholder. The NHL will then have a phase 2 lottery for the 8 qualifying losers with all 8 teams having an equal 12.5% odds and the winner of that phase 2 lottery would get that top 3 pick.

If the top 3 phase 1 lottery spots are all filled from the bottom 7 teams not playing in the 24 team play in format there won't be a phase 2 lottery and the 8-15 draft positions will be decided by the points % of the 8 losers of the qualifying round. So if the phase 1 lottery went like that and the Habs lost to the Pens they would draft 8th. I think so anyway.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

I can’t believe MB didn’t kick and scream after being informed of the draft rules. Totally unacceptable in my opinion.

Bergevin's probably the loser who put pressure on Bettman to have a chance for the playoffs, because y'all remember, the Habs had a 0.8% of making the playoffs pre-closure...

 

[Big Empty]

Because the Habs do not have a 12.5% chance of winning the lottery.

If they lose to Pittsburgh, and a Placeholder team makes the top-3 (which is 24.5% odds), Montreal THEN has a 12.5% chance (of that 24.5%) to win that Placeholder top-3 spot. So 12.5% out of that Placeholder 24.5% = 3.0625% odds.

Got you. Thanks.