2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[A Loyal Demidog]

I can’t wait to see this board (on the rare occasion) if teams 8-15 win one (or even better 2 or 3) of the top 3 picks.

Yeah, and I can't wait to see when those wins go to playoff-bound teams, like Toronto/Edmonton/Carolina/Pittsburgh (if they lose to us). At least Bergevin will tell the world "I promised you the playoffs and I got you the playoffs"

 

[ahmedou]

 

[The Great Weal]

Okay, so despite being unassigned, we know right now, Habs are Team A in 8th place with a 6% chance of winning the lottery. IF Team A ends up with picks 1-3, the NHL will proceed to Phase 2. I imagine Phase 2 erases everything from the first lottery and will hold another draft lottery from scratch but the odds to win it have increased.

So basically, in addition to losing to the Pens, Habs have to hope that teams 8-15 win at least 1 lottery spot(all 3 spots would be fantastic). If that happens, another lottery is held only for teams 8-15 all with the same odds of winning. Pens would be in the exact same position if we beat them.

 

[montreal]

Since nothing is official no sense in getting too worked up about what may or may not happen. I think the whole thing is stupid, they should have just focused on next season imo but got to make that money I guess.

 

[CHfan1]

Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?

If any of the teams in placeholder spots 8-15 win one or more of the top 3 picks in phase one of the draft lottery we still don’t know who gets that pick.

They will then hold a phase 2 draft lottery after the qualifying round with the 8 eliminated teams for that pick(s). Each of the eliminated teams will get the same odds for that pick(s).

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?

Basically it goes like this:

Phase 1: the lottery takes place with 15 balls. Teams 1 to 7 are known, Teams 8-15 are unknown (since the Qualifying Round hasn't happened yet).

If any team from "number 8 to 15" WINS any of the top-3, then once the Qualifying Round is over, ALL losers from the Qualifying Round have an equal chance of having won that "top-3 pick".

Example:
Phase 1: a Qualifying Round (8-15) ball has won the top pick (Lafreniere).
Phase 2: All 8 loser teams are put in a lottery of their own (with equal odds) to see which is the team that wins Lafreniere...


So, in other words, Phase 1 looks like this:
Detroit Red Wings -- 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick
Ottawa Senators -- 13.5 percent
Ottawa Senators (from San Jose) -- 11.5 percent
Los Angeles Kings -- 9.5 percent
Anaheim Ducks -- 8.5 percent
New Jersey Devils -- 7.5 percent
Buffalo Sabres -- 6.5 percent
Qualifying Round losers (NO PREFERENCE) -- 24.5 percent

If any team(s) from Qualifying Round losers win(s) top-3, Phase 2 kicks in, and well... the chance of winning that "top 3 pick" would be:
Qualifying Round Team A -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team B -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team C -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team D -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team E -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team F -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team G -- 12.5 percent
Qualifying Round Team H -- 12.5 percent

Yup, so in other words, if Montreal does lose to Pittsburgh, and they are Qualifying Round Team A, they will have an EQUAL chance to win that top-3 pick as Team H would (could be Carolina/NYI/Edmonton/Toronto). It's pretty f***ing stupid.

 

[sheed36]

Again below was the potential phase 2 odds (which was later removed from the article) posted in the first nhl.com draft lottery procedure article which should be used instead of all teams having an equal 12.5% chance.

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:
Team A -- 24.5 percent
Team B -- 20.4 percent
Team C -- 14.3 percent
Team D -- 12.2 percent
Team E -- 10.2 percent
Team F -- 8.2 percent
Team G -- 6.1 percent
Team H -- 4.1 percent

 

[The Great Weal]

The format is better than I thought, but I think it's dumb to have all 8 play in losers have the same odds in a 2nd lottery. The odds should be the best for the team(s) that won the spot(s), and progressively decreasing towards the highest point percentage. That makes a lot more sense to me. So if Team D wins 1st, Team A 2nd, and Team F 3rd, odds for the next lottery should be as followed(from highest to lowest): DAFBCDEGH.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Since nothing is official no sense in getting too worked up about what may or may not happen. I think the whole thing is stupid, they should have just focused on next season imo but got to make that money I guess.

I'm okay with them playing over the summer. If they chose to cancel and focus on next year, I'd be good with that,too.

For the draft lottery, I'm not sure why they needed to make it so complicated. Why even hold a Phase 1 and potential Phase 2? Just wait until the Play-In Series is over and hold the draft lottery as you do every year with the non-playoff teams.

The draft won't be happening any time soon. So why complicate things right now?

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?

If team A, team B, or another lettered team win in phase 1, it means the same thing.
There will be a second lotto to decide who wins among these teams.
If team A wins in phase 1, its the same as if team B won.

Its basically
Detroit (18.5%)
Ottawa
SanJose
...
Buffalo
The rest (~24%)

The rest includes team A and the others.
If that group wins a lotto pick (doesnt matter which lettered team it was), then there will be a lottery with just the teams that lost in the play-in.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

Vegas one of the the places? It might be worth a cheap ticket and a stay over night gambling if I can get a dog sitter!

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?

Team A is a placeholder, not a team per se, if a top pick is won by a placeholder:

Tie in losers go to phase 2

Phase 2 determines who gets the first, 2nd and 3rd pick if applicable, between the teams who lose the tie-in.

Teams 1 to 7 will hold positions 4 to 10 if all top 3 picks are won by placeholders

Loser teams from phase 2 get 11 to 15th pick

 

[CHfan1]

Vegas one of the the places? It might be worth a cheap ticket and a stay over night gambling if I can get a dog sitter!

They won’t allow fans.

On Vegas I wonder how their ice would hold up in 40 C weather (I know it’s a dry heat) with multiple games per day.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Vegas one of the the places? It might be worth a cheap ticket and a stay over night gambling if I can get a dog sitter!

Nobody wants to sit on your dog?

 

[Adam Michaels]

If any of the teams in placeholder spots 8-15 win one or more of the top 3 picks in phase one of the draft lottery we still don’t know who gets that pick.

They will then hold a phase 2 draft lottery after the qualifying round with the 8 eliminated teams for that pick(s). Each of the eliminated teams will get the same odds for that pick(s).

Basically it goes like this:

Phase 1: the lottery takes place with 15 balls. Teams 1 to 7 are known, Teams 8-15 are unknown (since the Qualifying Round hasn't happened yet).

If any team from "number 8 to 15" WINS any of the top-3, then once the Qualifying Round is over, ALL losers from the Qualifying Round have an equal chance of having won that "top-3 pick".

Example:
Phase 1: a Qualifying Round (8-15) ball has won the top pick (Lafreniere).
Phase 2: All 8 loser teams are put in a lottery of their own (with equal odds) to see which is the team that wins Lafreniere...

Okay. So if Team A wins the 2nd OA pick, then they don't technically hold that pick. Team A to Team H will re-enter a lottery and any one of those teams can win that pick. And the rest, according to standings.

I'm sorry if I'm still not getting it. And you can give up on my hopelessness at any moment.

 

[The Great Weal]

My question is that if teams 8-15 win all 3 spots, is there going to be just one lottery with everyone having the same odds to move into the top 3? Or will they do 3 lotteries with the winners of the previous lottery removed for the next one?

 

[the]

Just f***ing give the Stanley Cup to Boston and end this season already.

Give us our freaking 8th overall draft pick.

 

[sheed36]

Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?

Per your example the way I understand it is if Team A wins the 2nd OA pick they don't get to keep it and that 2nd OV pick will be decided by which team wins the phase 2 lottery after the qualifying round ends. All 8 qualifying losing teams would have the same 12.5% odds of winning the phase 2 lottery and getting the 2nd OV pick. .

 

[Adam Michaels]

Team A is a placeholder, not a team per se

Phase 2 determines who gets the first, 2nd and 3rd pick if applicable, between the teams who lose the tie-in.

Teams 1 to 7 will hold positions 4 to 10 if all top 3 picks are won by placeholders

Okay. So if any unassigned team wins a top-3 pick, then all unassigned teams that lose in the Play-In series will have a chance to get that pick in a separate lottery.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

In the lottery, theres usually 1 or 2 picks won by teams in the 8-15 range.

So if we lose to the pens, we will have a 1/8 or 1/4 chance of winning the lottery.

 

[CHfan1]

Okay. So if Team A wins the 2nd OA pick, then they don't technically hold that pick. Team A to Team H will re-enter a lottery and any one of those teams can win that pick. And the rest, according to standings.

I'm sorry if I'm still not getting it. And you can give up on my hopelessness at any moment.

It is confusing.

Yes you’re correct. Right now for Montreal’s sake we’re hoping one of Team’s A through H win one or more the top 3 picks.

If that happens Montreal has a 12.5 % chance of getting that pick if they lose against Pittsburgh.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Okay. So if any unassigned team wins a top-3 pick, then all unassigned teams that lose in the Play-In series will have a chance to get that pick in a separate lottery.

Yes

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

Okay. So if Team A wins the 2nd OA pick, then they don't technically hold that pick. Team A to Team H will re-enter a lottery and any one of those teams can win that pick. And the rest, according to standings.

I'm sorry if I'm still not getting it. And you can give up on my hopelessness at any moment.

Exactly. If "Team A" wins 2nd OA pick, well NHL just throws a wrench at Team A and says "nah, we'll re-draw... Teams A to H have equal chance now to get 2nd OA pick". It's pretty f***ing stupid.

Basically, there's no Team A to Team H. There are just 8 "unnumbered" balls in the lottery.

 

[llamateizer]

So if i understand... If the Habs win the lottery ans beats pittsburgh in the first round... Pittsburgh draft 1st?

No.
the team who win the 1st OA in 8-15 will go through another draw.

 

[sheed36]

My question is that if teams 8-15 win all 3 spots, is there going to be just one lottery with everyone having the same odds to move into the top 3? Or will they do 3 lotteries with the winners of the previous lottery removed for the next one?

In that case I'm guessing the top 3 picks would be decided by the 3 winners of the phase 2 lottery.