2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[CHfan1]

Okay, so despite being unassigned, we know right now, Habs are Team A in 8th place with a 6% chance of winning the lottery. IF Team A ends up with picks 1-3, the NHL will proceed to Phase 2. I imagine Phase 2 erases everything from the first lottery and will hold another draft lottery from scratch but the odds to win it have increased.

From the NHL’s media release.

Phase 1
* Phase 1 of the Draft Lottery will be conducted prior to the Qualifying Round on Friday, June 26.
* Three draws: First Draw (first overall pick), Second Draw (second overall pick) and Third Draw (third overall pick).
* Clubs entered: The seven teams that do not return to play, ranked in inverse order of their points percentage at the time of the regular-season pause, and eight “place-holders” to represent the to-be-determined Qualifying Round teams that will not advance, thus maintaining previously-established odds.

...


If Any of the Three Draws Are Won by Teams in the #8-15 Group
* The Draws for the corresponding selections will be conducted during Phase 2 among only the eight Qualifying Round teams that failed to advance.

Phase 2
* Phase 2 of the Draft Lottery, if necessary, will be conducted between the Qualifying Round and First Round.
* Phase 2 participants: the eight teams that do not advance from the Qualifying Round (or the teams that acquired their first-round picks).
* Following each Phase 2 draw, the winning team will be assigned the corresponding Top 3 selection and, if another Phase 2 draw is necessary, that team’s numbered lottery ball will be removed.
* When all Phase 1 and Phase 2 draws are completed and the Top 3 selections in the 2020 NHL Draft assigned, the remaining selections in the Top 15 will be assigned to the 12 teams that did not win a draw in inverse order of their points percentages at the time of the season’s pause.

In each Phase 2 draw, all participants will have the same odds.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So if Team A (MTL right now) wins picks 1-3, they hold onto it no matter what, right?

If Montreal loses to Pittsburgh, they will be Team A.

Yes, but if we win, from what i gathered we'll be 16th pick, because only the losers of the tie-in go to the 8 to 15 placeholders

 

[David Suzuki]

at that point each team (teams 8-15) will have same odd chances of winning the 1st overall.

wow I thought every team 1-15 would have the same odds. Wtf is the point of doing that? Just do one lottery.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

According to a post from Reddit. This is provided we lose against Pittsburgh as far as I can understand.

1st lottery:

Team	odds
Detroit	18.5%
Ottawa	13,5%
San Jose (Ott)	11.5%
Los Angeles	9.5%
Anaheim	8.5%
New jersey	7.5%
Buffalo	6.5%
Team A	6%
Team B	5%
Team C	3.5%
Team D	3%
Team E	2.5%
Team F	2.0%
Team G	1.5%
Team F	1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Assuming Team A-F in win the 1st overall, a second lottery will take place with each play in losing team in it (without the bottom 7 team in the league)

2nd lottery:

Team	odds
Montreal	12.5%
Team B	12.5%
Team C	12.5%
Team D	12.5%
Team E	12.5%
Team F	12.5%
Team G	12.5%
Team F	12.5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wow, ok I got it.

That's simply stupid.

Phase 2 should be different odds per position based on win%

 

[the]

So we don’t get the benefits of being not good?

Getting a high draft pick is our reward for not being a good team and now not only we will stay not good but we don’t even have a chance to change our fate by getting a good prospect?

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Phase 2 is not for the top 3 pick, it's a lottery for picks 8 through 15.

Phase 1 determines the top 3 pick

Nope
There is no lottery for pick 8-15.
The lottery is only for picks 1-3. If a non-bottom 7 team wins a top 3 pick, phase 2 is used. The rest of the picks 4-15 is determined by point percentage.

Ex: If Team A wins pick 2 in phase 1, then there will be a lottery in phase 2 among the 8 teams that lost the play-in series. Each of these teams will have the same odds of winning the 2nd overall.

 

[sheed36]

Phase 2 is not for the top 3 pick, it's a lottery for picks 8 through 15.

Phase 1 determines the top 3 pick

The way I understood it was that if a team not in the bottom 7 wins a top 3 pick in phase 1 they will need a phase 2 lottery draw after the qualifying round to determine which of the 8 losers of the qualifying round will get that top 3 pick won by the 8-15 seeded team in phase 1.

I'm still confused it seems.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So we don’t get the benefits of being not good?

Nah, if Toronto and Montreal lose in the tie-in, they'll have the same odds

Incredibly stupid. On par for the NHL.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Nope
There is no lottery for pick 8-15.
The lottery is only for picks 1-3. If a non-bottom 7 team wins a top 3 pick, phase 2 is used. The rest of the picks 4-15 is determined by point percentage.

Ex: If Team A wins pick 2 in phase 1, then there will be a lottery in phase 2 among the 8 teams that lost the play-in series. Each of these teams will have the same odds of winning the 2nd overall.

Look at two posts over yours

 

[WeThreeKings]

So we don’t get the benefits of being not good?

Getting a high draft pick is our reward for not being a good team and now not only we will stay not good but we don’t even have a chance to change our fate by getting a good prospect.

Nope. Our lotto odds have been reduced and we can lose our lotto pick outright with 3 lousy wins after a huge hiatus.

 

[Koivu11]

Nah, if Toronto and Montreal lose in the tie-in, they'll have the same odds

Incredibly stupid. On par for the NHL.

Makes absolutely no sense.

 

[HavlatMach9]

So if i understand... If the Habs win the lottery ans beats pittsburgh in the first round... Pittsburgh draft 1st?

No. In this case, each team that loses the play-in games gets a 12.5% chances for the 1st overall.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Makes absolutely no sense.

That's why I thought it was for picks 8 to 15

It makes no f***ing sense

 

[the]

We freaking traded away Kovalchuk & Thompson because we knew we had no chance of making the playoffs. Not only do we have a crappier team than before the trade deadline but on top of that we might lose our pick?

We got double screwed here...

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

A real bush league. Not surprised at all.

 

[sheed36]

Wow, ok I got it.

That's simply stupid.

Phase 2 should be different odds per position based on win%

That's what I was saying about the phase 2 odds. In the original nhl.com article they had different phase 2 odds listed which was removed from the article after and all 8 losers in the qualify rounds had equal 12.5% which is BS IMO and should be like you said.

 

[OnTheRun]

So let me see if I can understand this. On the 26th, they will hold a draft lottery as usual, which will include all teams that were not in the playoffs when the season ended. That includes Montreal, represented in the graph as Team A in 8th place. So right now, their chances of winning the lottery are at 6%, as they have been this entire time.

If any of the teams from 1 to 7 wins the lottery, then they won't need to go to Phase 2. But that would also mean that Team A (MTL in this case) will pick 8th if they lose to Pens.

What I'm not sure I understand is that if an unassigned team wins picks 1-3 on the 26th, how do they proceed to Phase 2 of the draft lottery? So hypothetically, if Team A wins the lottery, do they keep the pick they won on the 26th draft lottery? Or do they reshuffle the board after the play-in when the unassigned teams are assigned?

I know that if Montreal beats Pittsburgh and enters the playoffs, then they pick between 16th to 31st.

But if they lose, their either picking 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th or 11th?

Aaaaaaaah. This is f***ing stupid, we just got robbed of our ~19% odds to win a top3 pick.

After this avalanche of dumb, to get a top3 pick the Habs need to lose in the play-in then one of Team A to H need to win a top3 pick in phase1 THEN the Habs need to draw the winning letter via the phase2 lottery.

God, this is dumb, classic NHL gimmick.

 

[CHfan1]

We freaking traded away Kovalchuk & Thompson because we knew we had no chance of making the playoffs. Not only do we have a crappier team than before the trade deadline but on top of that we might lose our pick?

We got double screwed here...

Well they have to beat a healthy Penguins roster in three games first to lose that pick.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Aaaaaaaah. This is f***ing stupid, we just got robbed of our ~19% odds to win a top3 pick.

After this avalanche of dumb, to get a top3 pick the Habs need to lose in the play-in then one of Team A to H need to win a top3 pick in phase1 THEN the Habs need to draw the winning letter via the phase2 lottery.

God, this is dumb, classic NHL gimmick.

The New York State Lotto jackpot is less gimmicky than the NHL. Now that says a lot.

 

[the]

Well they have to beat a healthy Penguins roster in three games first to lose that pick.

Anybody could win 3 games. Not trying to under-estimate Pittsburgh but there’s still a decent chance that we defeat them.

I mean Detroit swept us this season.

 

[sheed36]

So if the Habs lose to the Pens and there's a phase 2 lottery draw for a possible top 3 pick they have the same 12.5% odds as the other 7 qualifying losers which is complete BS.

So if I got this right and the Habs didn't win that phase 2 lottery to move into the top 3 they would move down one spot and draft 9th right since a team below them moved up into the top 3 bumping them down one draft spot?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Or maybe we'll learn that the odds were ok, just that the Toronto-centric media jumped to some wishful conclusions and just wrote it off as equal 1/8 odds

 

[CHfan1]

I can’t wait to see this board (on the rare occasion) if teams 8-15 win one (or even better 2 or 3) of the top 3 picks.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

It's a top-8 heavy draft, and MTL is about to get completely f***ed over. Watch Toronto win the f***ing lottery.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Thanks @CHfan1 for trying to help me understand, but I am still confused. And that's on me.

And it's Phase 2 that confuses me.

Phase 1
I know that if a teams 1-7 win the top-3 spots, it ends there. And the rest of the picks will be by process of elimination of the Play-In series and their regular season standings. So in this case, if Habs lose to Pens, they pick 8th.

Phase 2
If any of the unassigned teams (8th to 15th) win pick(s) 1-3 in Phase 1, then the league will automatically go to Phase 2, held between Play-In and 1st Round. Then, all the teams will be assigned because we'll know who didn't qualify for the playoffs.

The Part I'm Still Having Issues Getting
In Phase 2, does the Phase 1 unassigned team who won a Top-3 pick lose that and re-enter the draft lottery with the new odds?

So for example, Team A wins the 2nd OA pick in Phase 1. Do they keep that 2nd OA pick in Phase 2 no matter what or do they lose it and re-enter the draft lottery and could then potentially pick 11th instead?