2020 Playoffs - Potential 24 team tournament - can Habs make a run? Part 2

[Per Sjoblom]

They won’t allow fans.

On Vegas I wonder how their ice would hold up in 40 C weather (I know it’s a dry heat) with multiple games per day.

Sh**! I forgot about that, I am truly an idiot at times.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

My question is that if teams 8-15 win all 3 spots, is there going to be just one lottery with everyone having the same odds to move into the top 3? Or will they do 3 lotteries with the winners of the previous lottery removed for the next one?

Just the 8 tie-in losers, one lottery

 

[GordonGraham]

Or maybe we'll learn that the odds were ok, just that the Toronto-centric media jumped to some wishful conclusions and just wrote it off as equal 1/8 odds

Just imagine the leafs losing vs Columbus and ending with 1st overall

 

[Adam Michaels]

@CHfan1 @A Loyal Hot Dog @Ozymandias @The Great Weise

Thanks for helping me finally understand it. You were patient with the slow student in the class.

 

[Runner77]

Funny enough, the NHL became a news item on CNN just now. Wolf Blitzter talking hockey, never thought I'd see that.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

@CHfan1 @A Loyal Hot Dog @Ozymandias @The Great Weise

Thanks for helping me finally understand it. You were patient with the slow student in the class.

Just to add to the confusion , since it takes place BEFORE the Qualifying Rounds, I believe the NHL wants to ensure everyone plays "fair game" during the Qualifying Rounds. That meaning, if Team A won 1st OA pick, then you can bet your ass Montreal (the current "Team A") will tank and lose all 3 games so they are sure to get Lafreniere. That's what the NHL is trying to "stop" from happening.

The problem is... If "Team A" (which technically does not exist) does win 1st OA pick, well NHL will do a re-draw between all 8 loser Qualifying Round teams to see who, in the end, gets Lafreniere... So basically, the NHL just confused the hell out of everyone for absolutely no reason, because there is NO Team A to Team H. There are just 8 losing Qualifying Teams - and all 8 have an equal chance of winning any Top-3 pick.

They could avoid all this bullshit if they do the lottery draft AFTER the Qualifying Rounds.

 

[sheed36]

All 8 losing qualifying teams having the same 12.5% odds in a potential phase 2 lottery for a potential top 3 pick is the biggest problem I have with this draft lottery decision. Should be weighted odds based on points % of the losing qualifying teams just like the regular normal draft lottery is.

 

[Runner77]

Sh**! I forgot about that, I am truly an idiot at times.

You're far from being an idiot. You just confused pandemic with pandemonium.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Just to add to the confusion , since it takes place BEFORE the Qualifying Rounds, I believe the NHL wants to ensure everyone plays "fair game" during the Qualifying Rounds. That meaning, if Team A won 1st OA pick, then you can bet your ass Montreal (the current "Team A") will tank and lose all 3 games so they are sure to get Lafreniere. That's what the NHL is trying to "stop" from happening.

The problem is... If "Team A" (which technically does not exist) does win 1st OA pick, well NHL will do a re-draw between all 8 loser Qualifying Round teams to see who, in the end, gets Lafreniere...

They could avoid all this bullshit if they do the lottery draft AFTER the Qualifying Rounds.

Unless the teams know an unassigned team has a Top-3 pick and they will still lose knowing they have a much more legitimate chance at landing a Top-3 pick.

 

[CH25]

Soo are we officially out of the running for Lafreniere ? I don't understand this set up.

 

[sheed36]

On another note regarding the top 4 teams. So they're gonna play a round robin between these 4 teams to determine seeding it seems. I can't see the Bruins liking that at all since they had a 8 point lead on 2nd place Tampa.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The pens are by far the best team in the play-in (finished 7th in the league, and 2 stanley cups in the last 4 years).

So losing against them wouldnt be surprising, and it would give us a top 10 pick.

But if we end up winning, then that means we are good enough to win against any team.

The 1st and 2nd round could be best of 5 as well, which would be better for us.

 

[The Great Weal]

In that case I'm guessing the top 3 picks would be decided by the 3 winners of the phase 2 lottery.

But what if there is 2 of the top 3 picks? They would have to do 2 separate lotteries right? I thought I read that somewhere, the team that won the first lottery is removed, odds are readjusted, and they do another lottery for the 2nd top 3 pick. If all 3 picks belong to teams 8-15, then they could just do 1 lottery with any team eligible to move up, but they could also do 3 separate lotteries and remove the previous winners.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

In the end, these are the real odds for the Habs:

LOSE AGAINST PITTSBURGH:
1. A Qualifying Team wins any "top 3 pick" --> Montreal has a 1/8 chance of getting that spot (shit odds for us).
1a. If Montreal DOES NOT win this Qualifying Team Top-3 Pick, then they automatically fall to pick 9-10-11 (depending how many Qualifying Teams have won in the top-3)

2. If no Qualifying Team wins any of the top 3 picks, Montreal is picking 8th OA.


WIN AGAINST PITTSBURGH:
Well, Montreal ain't in the lottery (we pick 16th OA, unless we go really far in the playoffs - which likely won't happen). But Pittsburgh now has the same odds Montreal had (had they lost) to win a top-3 pick (if a Qualifying Team wins any of the top-3). But if Pittsburgh does not win, then it's picking 15th OA because of their point percentage in wins.

 

[GordonGraham]

Soo are we officially out of the running for Lafreniere ? I don't understand this set up.

If you lose against Pittsburgh no, if you beat them yes

 

[Eggbeater]

Soo are we officially out of the running for Lafreniere ? I don't understand this set up.

No, but two extra hurdles have been added to reduce those chances even further.

 

[Adam Michaels]

If Habs Beat Pens:

Habs pick between 16th and 31st

If Habs Lose to Pens:

- Phase 1 goes as planned: Habs pick 8th.

- Phase 2 neccessary: Habs can pick Top-3 or between 9th-11th.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

Unless the teams know an unassigned team has a Top-3 pick and they will still lose knowing they have a much more legitimate chance at landing a Top-3 pick.

That is correct. But I doubt all 16 teams will do everything to lose, knowing they have a 1-in-8 chance of picking Top-3.

Now, if all top-3 picks happen to come from the Qualifying Rounds, then yes, I can see all 16 teams suck ass to try to win (since it'll now be a 3-in-8 chance).

 

[CH25]

No, but two extra hurdles have been added to reduce those chances even further.

It kinda sucks knowing we were well on our way down even further in the standings if the season had finished normally.

 

[sheed36]

Soo are we officially out of the running for Lafreniere ? I don't understand this set up.

No not really. If a team currently in the 8-15th place wins the 1st OV pick in phase 1 of the lottery the 8 losers of the play in round would then participate in a phase 2 lottery (with all 8 losing teams having a 12.5% chance of winning) and the winner of that phase 2 lottery gets that 1st OV pick.

That's how I understand it anyway.

 

[The Great Weal]

The pens are by far the best team in the play-in (finished 7th in the league, and 2 stanley cups in the last 4 years).

So losing against them wouldnt be surprising, and it would give us a top 10 pick.

But if we end up winning, then that means we are good enough to win against any team.

The 1st and 2nd round could be best of 5 as well, which would be better for us.

Not at all. Although it's unlikely, Habs winning 3 games out of 5 after months of no hockey is a lot more likely than beating them in an actual series. I will say that if the Habs beat the Pens and Philly, then ya, they deserve credit to be considered good since they won an actual series. Other than that, this play in doesn't mean anything.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

If Habs Beat Pens:

Habs pick between 16th and 31st

If Habs Lose to Pens:

- Phase 1 goes as planned: Habs pick 8th.

- Phase 2 neccessary: Habs can pick Top-3 or between 9th-11th.

Let's hope Pittsburgh don't choke.

This awful season of bunch of players. New terrible records. Losing 2-0 leads. Can't score goals. Terrible PP , AHL d-corpse.


We don't deserve anything. We need that 8th pick.

 

[OnTheRun]

Soo are we officially out of the running for Lafreniere ? I don't understand this set up.

Not yet.

We are out if:
1) Team A or B or C or D or E or F or G or H don't win the first pick on June 26
2) We win against the Pens in the play-in.

 

[MrNasty]

ok tell me if this is right:

Lets pretend at the first lottery that Detroit wins 1st OA, Ottawa wins 2nd OA and a Placeholder wins 3rd OA.
They will announce on the 26th that the draft order is:

1) Detroit
2) Ottawa
3) Winner of draft lottery #2
4) Ottawa
5) LA
6)Anaheim
7) New Jersey
8) Buffalo
9-15) The rest of the losing play-in teams in inverse order of regular season standing.

So assuming Montreal loses to Pittsburgh they have a 12.5% chance of drafting 3rd OA and if they lose that they will draft 9th.
If they beat Pittsburgh they draft 16th.