NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XI [We got 3-5]

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FormentonTheFuture

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Do you know the impact would be for the French area of Ottawa ( Gatineau, Orléans, Rockland, Embrun, Hawkesbury ) Melnyk see that. And Laff ready to make impact
First of all you’re acting like whatever bogus article was posted is fact.

our best player is currently French. It would improve things a bit but not by much. It also has no impact on franchise value.
 
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Que

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Feb 12, 2017
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3&5 for #1 would be a rip-off. I’m fairly certain Laf will have a shorter shelf life like Taylor Hall based on his style of physical play.

However... If there was some sort of agreement where a new arena and minority owner or better, we’ll I’d do it.

To be honest, as @danielpalfredsson has suggested, to a cap strapped contending team, #3, #33, #52, Brannstrom, Tierney and an included cap dump might be more valuable than Lafreniere.

I think the gap between 1 and 2/3 will close significantly in the coming months as people will over analyze and pick apart everything about every player.
 

armani

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3rd pick: BPA (Byfield or Stutzle) from Dorion's Tier 2

5th pick: Dorion's tier 3 are 4-12. Relatively speaking, there isn't much talent gap between these 9 players. So a team in such case will choose the BPA that meets their needs.

My preference for 5th in order (I want two elite forwards with both our picks):

  • Raymond (elite potential)
  • Rossi (will really solidify the top 2 line and follow a recipe of success where you need two very good centres to be a contender)
  • Drysdale (RD with elite potential (yet another illusive position to fill), BPA after top-3 according to Mackenzie's list, he would be my first choice for 5th if we didn't have Chabot)

I think Pittsburgh provides a better footprint for a contender than Nashville who overloaded at the backend goalie out but have struggled up front.

Dorion's tier would suggest some of the names to be interchangeable, much like Byfield and Stutzle are for 2 & 3. In the end, BPA is subjective according to an organizational need, hence the actual draft never matches consensus draft rankings and differ from one franchise to another.
 
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Hale The Villain

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People bring up that it would be idiotic to pass on a position of need at C for a winger, but historically, you're not getting a franchise C at 3 or 5.

Draisaitl, Toews, and maybe Pettersson (Still a bit too early to call him a franchise C) are the exceptions to the rule.

Again, these are generalizations, and maybe this current crop with Stutzle/Byfield is the year where there is an exception to the rule about 3+5 being less valuable than 1. I haven't seen enough to know. I will defer to the regular guys in this thread who are plugged into prospects, because each year's draft crop at the time of the draft is not something I've spent time on learning about.

On paper, you do 3+5 for 1 every day of the week. You also are more likely to get a Dubois, Kotkaniemi, Strome, Schenn, Duchene, Johansen, Turris, Monahan, Galchenyuk, other Strome, Gagner, Brassard etc if you're LUCKY in the 3-5 ballpark than a Toews or Draisaitl. Not all those guys went 3-5 exactly, but they were Cs who were on the board.

1st overall isn't perfect either, it's not like there haven't been a few disappointing 1st overall picks, but there is a high chance of getting a superstar or franchise player. Which, is impossible to get otherwise. A bunch of those C's on the list above have been made available in trades. If you have the assets, you can get top 6 forwards in trades. If you have the assets, you can't get superstars or franchise players in trades, and if you do, they have limited term left and are difficult to extend.

I don't think the positional argument holds up because the odds of us getting our top C with 3 and 5, at least in general/on paper terms, isn't great enough to pass on the high odds that Lafreniere is a superstar who we'd otherwise not be able to acquire elsewhere.

The above is also why, 9/10 teams would turn down 3/5 for 1.

I don't know if this analysis is really all that helpful, as the quality of the player at #1 and the quality of the players available at #3 and #5 are so different every year.

In certain years packaging the 3rd and 5th picks for #1 would be a no brainer. Obviously 2005 with Crosby and 2015 with McDavid. I would have done it in 2018 if the choice was Dahlin or Tkachuk + Kotkaniemi/Zadina. Same goes for 2010 with Seguin/Hall vs two of Johansen/Fowler/Skinner etc... but most years where there isn't a generational talent (Crosby/McDavid) or HOF talent (Eichel/Matthews/Dahlin), it's not worth it. This year has fantastic depth in the top 6 picks, including a standout top 3. We should be able to draft two star level talents using those picks, which IMO is more valuable than a single superstar level forward.

Lafreniere isn't a generational talent and isn't at the level of guys like Eichel or Matthews. He's more of a Tavares/Stamkos/MacKinnon/Hall quality #1 pick - an above average prospect available at the top of the draft but not the kind of prospect that only comes around a couple times a decade. That's what he'd need to be for it to make sense to give up Byfield/Stutzle (two guys with PPG potential) + Raymond/Perfetti/Drysdale (three more guys with high-end talent and potential).
 

armani

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Lafreniere isn't a generational talent and isn't at the level of guys like Eichel or Matthews. He's more of a Tavares/Stamkos/MacKinnon/Hall quality #1 pick - an above average prospect available at the top of the draft but not the kind of prospect that only comes around a couple times a decade. That's what he'd need to be for it to make sense to give up Byfield/Stutzle (two guys with PPG potential) + Raymond/Perfetti/Drysdale (three more guys with high-end talent and potential).

McDavid
Crosby

MacKinnon

Matthews
Eichel

Lafrenniere (this may change of course)
 
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Hale The Villain

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Although if we're going to use pick #5 on Quinn, who I see more as a 50-60P guy than a potential star forward like with Raymond or Perfetti, then I wouldn't be too upset if we packaged picks 3+5 for Lafreniere.
 

Hale The Villain

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McDavid
Crosby

MacKinnon

Matthews
Eichel

Lafrenniere (this may change of course)

MacKinnon was not nearly as good of a prospect as you think he was. Byfield out produced him this year at the same age (17). Drouin put up way more points on the same team and a lot of people thought Jones should have been ranked #1. Curiously, Barkov was the guy that probably should have went #1 given he had a ridiculous near PPG pace in the Finnish league while being an amazing two-way player.

I'd classify the potential of the #1 picks since the lockout like this:

Tier 1 (Generational): Crosby, McDavid
Tier 2 (HOF): Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin
Tier 3 (Superstar): Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, MacKinnon, Lafreniere
Tier 4 (Star): Johnson, RNH, Yakupov, Ekblad, Hischier, Hughes

This would be at the time of the draft, not in hindsight. In hindsight Kane and MacKinnon obviously out-performed expectations, while guys like Yakupov and Johnson did not.
 

armani

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MacKinnon was not nearly as good of a prospect as you think he was. Byfield out produced him this year at the same age (17). Drouin put up way more points and a lot of people thought Jones should have been ranked #1. Curiously, Barkov was the guy that probably should have went #1 given he had a ridiculous near PPG pace in the Finnish league.

I'd classify the potential of the #1 picks since the lockout like this:

Tier 1 (Generational): Crosby, McDavid
Tier 2 (HOF): Eichel, Matthews, Dahlin
Tier 3 (Superstar): Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, MacKinnon, Lafreniere
Tier 4 (Star): Johnson, RNH, Yakupov, Ekblad, Hischier, Hughes

Sorry, mine was more a take on where they actually stand today, and drawing comparison to where Laf is projected to be.
 
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Korpse

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How did it not?

He wasn't as engaged. He was able to step up his game which isn't a bad thing but it wasn't consistent either. There's a lot of question whether Drysdale is even able to be eat minutes the way Chabot did when he was MVP. Drysdale is a good prospect and easily a top 10 talent in this draft. I think his WJC performance is overrated, and it's leading to his projection getting overrated as well.
 

Korpse

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MacKinnon was not nearly as good of a prospect as you think he was. Byfield out produced him this year at the same age (17). Drouin put up way more points on the same team and a lot of people thought Jones should have been ranked #1.

I have to disagree here. Mackinnon and Jones went head to head the entire year if I remember correctly but the consensus generally sided with Mackinnon. I'm glad you brought up Drouin because it is a perfect example of why scouts are paid to do what they do.

There were a lot of people who saw Drouin's flash, they saw him outperform Mackinnon at the WJC and outproduce him in Halifax, as a result there was a contingent of fans that said Drouin was the better prospect but what that analysis missed was projection. Mackinnon's game always projected well to the next level, his power game and the way he drove the centre of the ice wasn't as refined in junior where he could take advantage but it was a style that combined with his raw ability translated to the NHL really well. Drouin on the other hand while also really skilled, didn't have that power. He beat players in junior using his hands and had more success because that part of his game was further developed. But as he transitioned to pro that part of his game didn't get him as far.
 

GCK

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Although if we're going to use pick #5 on Quinn, who I see more as a 50-60P guy than a potential star forward like with Raymond or Perfetti, then I wouldn't be too upset if we packaged picks 3+5 for Lafreniere.
You are seriously undervaluing Quinn as a 50-60 point player. While I wouldn’t take him top 5 he fits in my 6-10 range.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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We have lots of time to pick apart every prospect's game and possible flaws .. Too much time. We have 2 top 5 picks in a draft with a very good top 10.

We will get one of Byfield and Stutzle.. Pick them apart all you want both are excellent prospects that deserve being in that 2nd tier by themselves
After that it gets more interesting but there are at least 5 legit talents there and we could take anyone of them. Are they perfect in every way .. of course not.. but there are 3 forwards with elite vision and play making ability.. different styles, different stages of development.. watch them for the positives and the upside and for what they've accomplished. They are great prospects. Raymond didn't get much of a chance in the SHL this year but he is still a great player and prospect. There are 2 D that would be great adds to any team .. over valued / undervalued .. they are both really good prospects. There is no comb you can pass these guys through to pop out the surest bet highest upside , best expectation to be a superstar.. they all have a shot at being excellent impact players that will make the Ottawa Senators better. Who do you like? Don't tell people who they shouldn't like.
 

L'Aveuglette

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First of all you’re acting like whatever bogus article was posted is fact.

our best player is currently French. It would improve things a bit but not by much. It also has no impact on franchise value.

Do you live in Quebec? Are you French Canadian?

If not, I would suggest you sit this one out. Lafrenière would boost attendance numbers a ton just like he would in Montreal.
 

Joeyjoejoe

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So on the 31 thoughts podcast. LAs GM stated that after Lafreniere, the number of players in their next tier is 4 players long, as opposed to 2 players that Dorion stated.

For the Kings I am assuming those 4 players are:

Stutzle
Byfield
Drysdale
Sanderson

If they think they can get one of those players at pick #5 and also pick up an asset. What would it cost Ottawa to get their pick?

Would it be the 5th overall pick + 33rd overall be enough for the 2nd overall.

This allows us to get Stutzle + Byfield.
 

Crosside

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So on the 31 thoughts podcast. LAs GM stated that after Lafreniere, the number of players in their next tier is 4 players long, as opposed to 2 players that Dorion stated.

For the Kings I am assuming those 4 players are:

Stutzle
Byfield
Drysdale
Sanderson

If they think they can get one of those players at pick #5 and also pick up an asset. What would it cost Ottawa to get their pick?

Would it be the 5th overall pick + 33rd overall be enough for the 2nd overall.

This allows us to get Stutzle + Byfield.
More of the Isles pick or add a goalie at ours first offer + Logan Brown
 

GoSenatorsGo

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I apologize if this has been asked previously, but, if the Islanders lose the play in, and lose the lottery, where is their pick landing? How do they determine spots 9-15? Again, apologize if this has been talked to death
 

guyzeur

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Do you live in Quebec? Are you French Canadian?

If not, I would suggest you sit this one out. Lafrenière would boost attendance numbers a ton just like he would in Montreal.
That's a discriminatory stance by the way.So he could ask you to stay away from any conversation that concerns English players??? WTF

I agree with him.

Winning will boost attendance more than any player we draft.
 
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L'Aveuglette

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That's a discriminatory stance by the way.

I agree with him.

Winning will boost attendance more than any player we draft.

Oh ok I'm being discriminatory because I think actual French Canadians/Quebecers would know better about how French Canadians would attend more games if a superstar from Quebec were to play in Ottawa.

Lol wut.
 
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Crosside

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That's a discriminatory stance by the way.

I agree with him.

Winning will boost attendance more than any player we draft.
We are bad at marketing. Imagine we trade for Lafreniere at the draft. All news gonna talk to, ours marketing is fix and you gonna see a big jump of attendance. And more you put a 2d Jersey at Laff at the draft
 

GCK

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You need a lot of skill to score 50-60 points in the NHL. So I don't think it's being unkind.
It shows that he didn’t watch much of Quinn. The progression in Quinn’s game is what really stands out. He’s the 3rd best winger in the draft in my book.
 

Tkachuckycheese

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If the Sens get a playmaker like Stutzle would the priority be to get a sniper after? The Sens don't really have that pure kind of shooter in their system other than Duclair. But he's been pretty hot or cold. Been watching some highlight videos and reading up on Holtz and the kid has a really lethal shot and seems to be right on point with accuracy. I see Raymond in the same kind of mold as Stutzle in comparison just about. Still giving a bigger edge to Stutzle. It's def something the Sens have kinda lacked in recent years. I do miss those Hoffman type one-timers.
Just curious what people are thinking what the Sens really need player playing style wise from this draft.

Also given that Dorian said 4-12 is kinda in the same wheelhouse this could be an interesting pick at 5.
 
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