HF Habs: 2020 Montreal Canadiens Off-Season Thread part 3

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Treb

Global Flanderator
May 31, 2011
29,434
30,181
Montreal
Refs are getting annoyed by his game and have been calling many penalties against him. Did you watch some recent games? So you consider luck as a unit of measure to evaluate talent?

Gallagher only had more than 50 PIMS once (his 2nd season). This year he had 12 minors in 59 games. That's around 1 minor every 5 game. He has also drawn 13 penalties so he's in the plus.

In the PO this year, he had 1 minor in 9 games and has drawn 1 penalty so they cancel each other.
 

26Mats

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
33,045
25,469
Didnt Gallys own agent kinda claim that he isnt a 1st line winger? Regardless of what you think of him, having him as our best forward is incredibly pathetic.

Hoping Suzuki's our best forward this upcoming year... Tatar was last year...

Ultimately, we have to have depth of offensive forwards when these three are among our best forwards. They certainly aren't earning high enough salaries to prevent us from getting a depth of players at their level, which is all that's available, while we wait for Suzuki and KK to develop and to hopefully land high end wingers.
 

BargainBinSpecial

Registered User
Jul 2, 2018
2,676
1,397
Gallagher only had more than 50 PIMS once (his 2nd season). This year he had 12 minors in 59 games. That's around 1 minor every 5 game. He has also drawn 13 penalties so he's in the plus.

In the PO this year, he had 1 minor in 9 games and has drawn 1 penalty so they cancel each other.
He had to tweak his style of play in order to avoid those calls. Fact remains, he is not elite, he won't keep up as he gets older (already is showing signs of body wear and tear), many of his goals are garbage, refs are on to him, etc. Do you believe he is worth more than 7 mil/year. I don't. But he is definitely my favorite player on the Habs. He has heart, leadership, determination and drive. If you think these qualities are the determining factors that set him apart, then he should be getting more than 7 mil.
 

Treb

Global Flanderator
May 31, 2011
29,434
30,181
Montreal
Name me a legit first liner that went UFA and isn’t making 8 million?
I don’t think he’s a first line player. He is on our team by default.
Kevin Hayes is making 7! Look at the Ladd deal
Okposo. Ericsson. Lucic.
Gallagher is gonna be overpaid

Pacioretty, Schenn, Oshie, Lee, Radulov, E. Kane, Bergeron, Marchand, Dadonov.

We'll see when he signs the deal if he is overpaid.

So your take is that a 30 goalscorer is not a first liner? In 2018-2019, only 45 players had 30+ goals (Gallagher tied 30th with 33), 12 had 40+ and 2 had 50+. Last 3 years, he is tied 27th in goals.
 

Zorba

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May 26, 2011
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Pacioretty, Schenn, Oshie, Lee, Radulov, E. Kane, Bergeron, Marchand, Dadonov.

We'll see when he signs the deal if he is overpaid.

So your take is that a 30 goalscorer is not a first liner? In 2018-2019, only 45 players had 30+ goals (Gallagher tied 30th with 33), 12 had 40+ and 2 had 50+. Last 3 years, he is tied 27th in goals.
54 pts. Career high are not first line numbers
And if you think Gallagher is a first liner that’s your opinion
54 pt first line players are why the habs are a bad team
 

Treb

Global Flanderator
May 31, 2011
29,434
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Montreal
54 pts. Career high are not first line numbers
And if you think Gallagher is a first liner that’s your opinion
54 pt first line players are why the habs are a bad team

If Gallagher would have went to Dallas instead of Radulov, he would have 70 points season too. Gallagher score goals at a first liner pace. The problem is that the other 4 on the ice don't score enough to get him a bunch of assists. Similar to Ovechkin, but obviously a few notch down.
 

Zorba

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May 26, 2011
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If Gallagher would have went to Dallas instead of Radulov, he would have 70 points season too. Gallagher score goals at a first liner pace. The problem is that the other 4 on the ice don't score enough to get him a bunch of assists. Similar to Ovechkin, but obviously a few notch down.
Radulov skill set is way beyond Gallagher’s
 

HabsWhiteKnightLOL

Registered User
Apr 29, 2017
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Somewhere on earth in a hospital
If Gallagher would have went to Dallas instead of Radulov, he would have 70 points season too. Gallagher score goals at a first liner pace. The problem is that the other 4 on the ice don't score enough to get him a bunch of assists. Similar to Ovechkin, but obviously a few notch down.
You are smoking something good if you think Gallagher get 70 points
 
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Treb

Global Flanderator
May 31, 2011
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Montreal
Radulov skill set is way beyond Gallagher’s
So are Radulov's teammates. There is a reason why he had a lot more points in Dallas vs MTL.

I'm not comparing Radulov's and Gallagher's skill. You produce more with better teammates was my point.
 

waffledave

waffledave, from hf
Aug 22, 2004
33,602
16,287
Montreal
So what's happening? Any big trades are likely to happen tomorrow. UFA on Friday. Are the Habs doing anything?
 

waffledave

waffledave, from hf
Aug 22, 2004
33,602
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Montreal
I am open to bringing in a vet slightly past their prime if it means teaching Suzuki and KK good habits and letting them develop their offensive game. Guys that can finish.
 
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Kairi Zaide

Unforgiven
Aug 11, 2009
105,281
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In a league with lesser teams, he would be a third liner. However, he can easily be slotted on a second line on many other mid level teams today.
I mean, of course if there were lesser teams, the concentration of good players on all teams would be greater. But that is not the case in 2020, and this is irrelevant to bring that up. And as I keep exposing, while there are teams with better RWs than him, very little teams have 2 better RWs. He would not be slotted on the second line on "mid level teams" only. He would be on the vast majority of teams.

Refs are getting annoyed by his game and have been calling many penalties against him. Did you watch some recent games? So you consider luck as a unit of measure to evaluate talent? I didn't understand your sentence. Sorry for being old school.
Regarding penalties - as @Treb pointed out, he got one penalty in these playoffs. They weren't his bests due to his injury, however, and if he had been more implicated, maybe he would have been called one or two more times. But the same goes for the penalties he would have drawn. Fact of the matter, there is nothing that suggests refs are getting annoyed by his game. The number of penalties he takes per 60 minutes has been oscillating within the same range over the course of his career. He ranks 198th amongst all players with more than 500 minutes played this season in terms of penalties taken per 60 minutes.

Regarding the luck thing, what I mean is that some players end up having career years that are just not sustainable. This happens every year. Ryan Strome is a good example this past season. His shooting% is way above his career average, and his PDO is well above the sustainable 0.97-1.03 range. PDO is the sum of a player's team save% and of a player's team shooting% when he is on the ice. Even the best players in the league never consistently beat PDO over a few seasons. When you see high these kind of signals, it's easy to project a regression for one player's production.

Another thing to mention, also, is that yes, every team will have players producing more simply because they're given more ice time, even if said player wouldn't be getting the same ice time on better teams. The players who actually play more than they should generally don't outscore the opponent, and often give up on defense for more offense - sometimes because that's what the coach wants. Some of these players do progress due to being young, and end up being able to focus on a more complete game with proper coaching, understanding of the game, development, etc. Barzal and Larkin are good examples of that. Regarding Gally, as I mentionned, he produces very well despite not even getting a lot of ice time compared to other first liners in the league. And he does that while he and his line manage to shut down the opponent - and if you want to bring that up, they have faced amongst the toughest competition in the entire league. If he was not deserving of such ice time, this simply wouldn't happen.

Players wanna get paid. And with the kraken coming in next year and want to make a splash I Can easily see Gallagher putting Bergevin over a barrel.
Seattle has very deep pocket owners. They will over pay for players
The Kraken coming in will probably affect the cap ceiling a few years from now, since it's not out of the question that it stays put for a few seasons due to COVID. That said, of course Gally will want to get paid, especially after being underpaid for his whole prime.

fact said 1st liner turns into a 15G scorer and 40 pts player during PO suggest otherwise.
Most of his playoffs games occurred before he hit his prime, which were the past 3 seasons mostly. During two of these playoffs (this season and the 16-17 ones) he was either playing injured or coming of an injury. And that's why I mentionned my concerns about his longevity. With his style, any upper body injury will have a great impact on his contribution.
It's time then for Gally to go, get some futures and build up a team with size, speed and talent.
I don't disagree that the best course of action would likely to have sold off the next season UFA core during this offseason to maximize future assets. Unfortunately, with Petry's signing, that is definitely not Bergy's plan.
I’m certainly not opposed. This team is going nowhere with Gallagher and Tatar and Danault as number one line
You know if Danault is there, Julien will use him and his number 1
That line hasn't been an issue. The rest has been. If they are our 2nd line, thank the gods for that because that'd mean the Habs would be cup contenders with 2 of the best lines in hockey.
54 pts. Career high are not first line numbers
And if you think Gallagher is a first liner that’s your opinion
54 pt first line players are why the habs are a bad team
Consistently being in that range is fine for first line players in today's NHL - especially when you consider he is a top 5v5 point producer. FYI, he was 36th in that regard in the whole league this past season, and 43rd over the past 3 seasons. And that's with him being stuck with linemates with generally poor finishing, which impacts his assists totals. AND that's without considering the goals he contributes for with his net presence and forecheck, where he doesn't necessarily get an assist.

Another thing is that his individual impact is greater than several players who consistently put up 10-15 more points. A key part of his game is also how, despite his lackluster size, he successfully manages to keep pressure in the offensive zone. This results in him having a good defensive impact, because he prevents the opponent from getting out of their zone. And if they do, he is alright defensively - not great by any mean, but responsible. This leads to him having a very good impact of goal differential rates - which is probably what matters the most in the end, and which points alone do not reflect.

Lastly, there's also the replaceability aspect of his production. Goals are less replaceable than primary assists, which are less repleceable than secondary assists. Most of Gally's point production comes from the first two, and he's able to drive these without having to rely much on his teammates unlike some other players who might score ~30 goals too.
You are smoking something good if you think Gallagher get 70 points
As I pointed out, he is amongst the top in 5v5 production. The Habs PP has been an issue as a whole, not just for Gallagher. The strategy (get puck to Weber for boom boom) is outdated and doesn't work anymore. And I mentioned earlier it was not compatible with Gally's style because 1) hard shot from the point are unpredictable - if they miss, the zone is cleared, if it's stopped, the rebound can go anywhere and is nearly impossible to catch. For a player whose bread and butter is the front of the net, that is not ideal. I'm not implying he is a PP driver like the top offensive threats in the NHL (Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Ovechkin, etc.) who will score regardless of team PP strategy. But for many players, PP production is mostly driven by the team and coach's efforts rather than just their own - and that is why 5v5 production is more easily projected than PP production from one season to another for the vast majority of players.

Put him on a team with a competent PP that cycles the puck properly, and it's not out of the question he would have gotten 5-10 more points per season over the last few seasons.

And as pointed earlier, put him with linemates with better finishing than, say, Danault (who isn't bad at all, just not a good goalscorer), and it's even less out of question that he'd be having more points.

PS : I want to point out that what I'm saying is mostly regarding his play the last few seasons. Projecting his play going forward might be hard and it's not out of the question that he's gonna start regressing sooner than later - especially when most players start to do so at his age - forwards typically peak in their mid-20s.
 
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Grate n Colorful Oz

Pure Laine Hutson
Jun 12, 2007
35,457
32,467
Hockey Mecca
So what's happening? Any big trades are likely to happen tomorrow. UFA on Friday. Are the Habs doing anything?

If we follow the usual biceps trend, he'll make one trade that'll be either good or controversial and then sign one or two more depth players and low-risk low rewards type of moves. He'll then declare the team to be superior.
 

JianYang

Registered User
Sep 29, 2017
19,095
18,147
Gallagher is Theo Fleury minus the wheels.

I'm a big Gallagher fan but even with better wheels, he's still not Theo Fleury. Fleury was immensely talented, and could make the opposition look silly with his dangles. That aspect of his game was just as prevalent as his drive, and competitive nature.
 

Burke the Legend

Registered User
Feb 22, 2012
8,318
2,853
I’m certainly not opposed. This team is going nowhere with Gallagher and Tatar and Danault as number one line
You know if Danault is there, Julien will use him and his number 1

As an all star "top line" sure.. but don't knock them, that's a very strong line that has matched up against any in the league 5v5 and is paid very reasonably for what they bring. Stupid to see people bashing them and CJ for playing them when they have been excellent the past 2 seasons. The problem is the other top 6 line has not been there, but no team survives on 1 line anyway so what does it matter. Maybe that actual legit other top 6 lines comes together If MB can land a top RW: Drouin-Suzuki-???Laine???
 
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ECWHSWI

TOUGHEN UP.
Oct 27, 2006
28,604
5,423
I mean, of course if there were lesser teams, the concentration of good players on all teams would be greater. But that is not the case in 2020, and this is irrelevant to bring that up. And as I keep exposing, while there are teams with better RWs than him, very little teams have 2 better RWs. He would not be slotted on the second line on "mid level teams" only. He would be on the vast majority of teams.


Regarding penalties - as @Treb pointed out, he got one penalty in these playoffs. They weren't his bests due to his injury, however, and if he had been more implicated, maybe he would have been called one or two more times. But the same goes for the penalties he would have drawn. Fact of the matter, there is nothing that suggests refs are getting annoyed by his game. The number of penalties he takes per 60 minutes has been oscillating within the same range over the course of his career. He ranks 198th amongst all players with more than 500 minutes played this season in terms of penalties taken per 60 minutes.

Regarding the luck thing, what I mean is that some players end up having career years that are just not sustainable. This happens every year. Ryan Strome is a good example this past season. His shooting% is way above his career average, and his PDO is well above the sustainable 0.97-1.03 range. PDO is the sum of a player's team save% and of a player's team shooting% when he is on the ice. Even the best players in the league never consistently beat PDO over a few seasons. When you see high these kind of signals, it's easy to project a regression for one player's production.

Another thing to mention, also, is that yes, every team will have players producing more simply because they're given more ice time, even if said player wouldn't be getting the same ice time on better teams. The players who actually play more than they should generally don't outscore the opponent, and often give up on defense for more offense - sometimes because that's what the coach wants. Some of these players do progress due to being young, and end up being able to focus on a more complete game with proper coaching, understanding of the game, development, etc. Barzal and Larkin are good examples of that. Regarding Gally, as I mentionned, he produces very well despite not even getting a lot of ice time compared to other first liners in the league. And he does that while he and his line manage to shut down the opponent - and if you want to bring that up, they have faced amongst the toughest competition in the entire league. If he was not deserving of such ice time, this simply wouldn't happen.


The Kraken coming in will probably affect the cap ceiling a few years from now, since it's not out of the question that it stays put for a few seasons due to COVID. That said, of course Gally will want to get paid, especially after being underpaid for his whole prime.


Most of his playoffs games occurred before he hit his prime, which were the past 3 seasons mostly. During two of these playoffs (this season and the 16-17 ones) he was either playing injured or coming of an injury. And that's why I mentionned my concerns about his longevity. With his style, any upper body injury will have a great impact on his contribution.

I don't disagree that the best course of action would likely to have sold off the next season UFA core during this offseason to maximize future assets. Unfortunately, with Petry's signing, that is definitely not Bergy's plan.

That line hasn't been an issue. The rest has been. If they are our 2nd line, thank the gods for that because that'd mean the Habs would be cup contenders with 2 of the best lines in hockey.

Consistently being in that range is fine for first line players in today's NHL - especially when you consider he is a top 5v5 point producer. FYI, he was 36th in that regard in the whole league this past season, and 43rd over the past 3 seasons. And that's with him being stuck with linemates with generally poor finishing, which impacts his assists totals. AND that's without considering the goals he contributes for with his net presence and forecheck, where he doesn't necessarily get an assist.

Another thing is that his individual impact is greater than several players who consistently put up 10-15 more points. A key part of his game is also how, despite his lackluster size, he successfully manages to keep pressure in the offensive zone. This results in him having a good defensive impact, because he prevents the opponent from getting out of their zone. And if they do, he is alright defensively - not great by any mean, but responsible. This leads to him having a very good impact of goal differential rates - which is probably what matters the most in the end, and which points alone do not reflect.

Lastly, there's also the replaceability aspect of his production. Goals are less replaceable than primary assists, which are less repleceable than secondary assists. Most of Gally's point production comes from the first two, and he's able to drive these without having to rely much on his teammates unlike some other players who might score ~30 goals too.

As I pointed out, he is amongst the top in 5v5 production. The Habs PP has been an issue as a whole, not just for Gallagher. The strategy (get puck to Weber for boom boom) is outdated and doesn't work anymore. And I mentioned earlier it was not compatible with Gally's style because 1) hard shot from the point are unpredictable - if they miss, the zone is cleared, if it's stopped, the rebound can go anywhere and is nearly impossible to catch. For a player whose bread and butter is the front of the net, that is not ideal. I'm not implying he is a PP driver like the top offensive threats in the NHL (Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Ovechkin, etc.) who will score regardless of team PP strategy. But for many players, PP production is mostly driven by the team and coach's efforts rather than just their own - and that is why 5v5 production is more easily projected than PP production from one season to another for the vast majority of players.

Put him on a team with a competent PP that cycles the puck properly, and it's not out of the question he would have gotten 5-10 more points per season over the last few seasons.

And as pointed earlier, put him with linemates with better finishing than, say, Danault (who isn't bad at all, just not a good goalscorer), and it's even less out of question that he'd be having more points.

PS : I want to point out that what I'm saying is mostly regarding his play the last few seasons. Projecting his play going forward might be hard and it's not out of the question that he's gonna start regressing sooner than later - especially when most players start to do so at his age - forwards typically peak in their mid-20s.
What do you mean with his style ? You were saying earlier you did not care how hé scored ans Al...
 

Kairi Zaide

Unforgiven
Aug 11, 2009
105,281
12,707
Quebec City
What do you mean with his style ? You were saying earlier you did not care how hé scored ans Al...
I don't care how he scores his goal. His goals come from quantity over quality - even though most of his shots taken at the net are above average quality in terms of danger level. What he does is unique in the NHL - no player even comes close, at 5v5, to attempting shots as frequently, as often AND as close to the net as he does. He's in a world of his own, and that's because it's not easy to do.

The reason I mentionned his style is because 1) yeah, getting abused in front of the net will take a toll on your longetivity as a player, most likely, and 2) it's not a style that will drive PP success as much as some other playstyles, but that will still work very well on a competent PP that cycles the puck well around the offensive zone (and not just to the point for a hard shot that most likely will end up getting out of the zone)
 
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