Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VII

[ecemleafs]

are some people really comparing junior hockey stats from 2020 to stats in the 80s? thats utterly ridiculous.

 

[Leetch3]

He seems to be as good a bet at center as any in that range. Mercer, Jarvis, Holloway... all seem to be kinda "centers who might be wings," in the NHL. Unless you want to drop down a talent tier for someone like Brendan Brisson.... but I'd rather swing on a guy with more talent. We don't really need a 4th line center, we need a 1/2.

you definitely don't drop down to the next tier...if you are talking similar players and one happens to be a center thats great but get the talent and figure it out later.

 

[Edge]

He seems to be as good a bet at center as any in that range. Mercer, Jarvis, Holloway... all seem to be kinda "centers who might be wings," in the NHL. Unless you want to drop down a talent tier for someone like Brendan Brisson.... but I'd rather swing on a guy with more talent. We don't really need a 4th line center, we need a 1/2.

By now I don't think many consider Jarvis a center. I'd probably reverse the statement to say "wings who might be centers" at this point. Frankly, there's a lot of them this year. It almost seems like more than most years.

I'd say in general, this isn't the draft to swing for a center. You could go for an intriguing offensive forward, but if you're looking for a top line center, you'll probably come away disappointed. But if you can accept them as a RW, there's some guys to really like.

 

[True Blue]

There are plenty of those type of players that are going to be available from the 2nd round on.

Need to be a little careful here. It is one thing to say that support type players are going to be available from the second round on. That is certainly true. But whereas the bottom 6 is probably the ceiling that one could reasonably hope that they reach (and yes, we all know that there are notable exceptions) in drafting a player like Holloway, Amirov or Grieg you are drafting a player that also has top-6 upside and is much more likely to reach it than the players that get drafted later.

And I’ll take a 2nd for Georgiev.

Food for thought: Should that wait until Henke's situation clears up or is the thought to trade Georgiev for as much as you can get right now?

We know that Georgiev can certainly succeed and is a good goalie. We really don't know what the scrap heap of UFA backups would bring.

 

[True Blue]

I’m warming on Mavrik Borque if we can’t get up for Lundell.

Attitude, Attitude, Attitude. For that reason, I cannot see him any more than I can see Perrault or Gunler.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

I really don't feel the weight to the height is a big deal at this point, though we've been down this road before as a baord with guys like Farabee. And then two years later we wonder why didn't take the guy.

The production for the league as a draft eligible is solid as far as late first round picks/early second round picks go, especially for a kid who is closer in age to some of his 2021 eligible peers compared to his 2020 classmates.

There's no way to compare the production of prospects in the WHL in 2020 to the production of prospects in the league from 30 years ago. That's like comparing the NHL's scoring over the same time period. It's almost never going to produce a "win" for the guy in 2020.

I'm not really sure where you're going with the Brayden Point/St. Croix example.

A bad H/W ratio is tough to make up, even tougher to make up when you’re below average height. You need borderline obscene production to make up for it, something he doesn’t have, even accounting for age.

When your dad(who was a replacement level NHLer before the Iron curtain fell, a Legionnaire in Europe after) pretty much laps you in respective draft years, that’s not a good sign.

If you can’t grok the Point-St. Croix analogy, that’s not my problem.

 

[True Blue]

Strome is not bringing back Greenway and a second. I hate to break it to you but I don't think the rest of the NHL believes in Strome. They probably think he's an average player at best without Panarin. No, the Rangers can't miss on any first round pick now. The importance of always having cheap talent replacing non corner stone guys is more important than ever. Or you will end up like Chicago with a few max contract guys and the rest of team stinks. Just imagine 3 years from now how much of the cap Panarin, Zibanejad, Lafreniere, Kakko, Shesterkin and Fox will be taking up.

#TheOracleOfKnowledgeHasSpoken

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

are some people really comparing junior hockey stats from 2020 to stats in the 80s? thats utterly ridiculous.

Even accounting for leather pads with horsehair stuffing, it’s rather easy to compare stats over eras: needless to say a father & son who are the same height and the same league drawing from the same talent pool(even though the pool is diluted due to league expansion) in a similar role shouldn’t have a scoring disparity like that, except they do.

 

[ecemleafs]

A bad H/W ratio is tough to make up, even tougher to make up when you’re below average height. You need borderline obscene production to make up for it, something he doesn’t have, even accounting for age.

When your dad(who was a replacement level NHLer before the Iron curtain fell, a Legionnaire in Europe after) pretty much laps you in respective draft years, that’s not a good sign.

If you can’t grok the Point-St. Croix analogy, that’s not my problem.

what the f*** are you talking about with his dad? mark greig scored 27 points in 65 games as an 18 year old in the WHL. ridly greig scored 60 in 56 as an 18 year old. when mark greig put up 135 points as a 20 year old in the WHL, he had teammates put up 142, 140, 138, 120, and 119 in the same season. 10 players that season put up 138+ points. only 1 player scored 100 points in the WHL this year. are you for real?

 

[Edge]

A bad H/W ratio is tough to make up, even tougher to make up when you’re below average height. You need borderline obscene production to make up for it, something he doesn’t have, even accounting for age.

When your dad(who was a replacement level NHLer before the Iron curtain fell, a Legionnaire in Europe after) pretty much laps you in respective draft years, that’s not a good sign.

If you can’t grok the Point-St. Croix analogy, that’s not my problem.

He's about 5'11, 170 right now. For comparison, Farabee was 6'0, 165 around his draft, Dubinsky was 5'11, 175 around his draft, and Tony Amonte was 5'11, 160 at his draft. Pettersson was 6'2, 170.

That's without any heavy research or serious time devoted to responding to your theory. Needless to say, it's really not a big thing. Him putting on 20-25 pounds is plausible. I don't think that's the make or break for his success.

As for the dad comparison, you just pretty much shot on your statement in the foot. You're comparing today's WHL to an era before the Iron Curtain fell. I mean, think about that for a second. Is that really the evidence you want to throw out there?

Scoring at just about every level is significantly lower than it was 30 years ago. That includes the NHL, the AHL, and junior leagues. That's why Seth Jarvis is getting attention for a 98 point WHL campaign and no one is mentioning Pat Falloon scoring 138 points in his draft season out of the WHL. Likewise, no one is comparing Lafreniere's 112 points to Pierre Turgeon's 154 in the Q, or Kucherov's NHL leading 128 points in 2019 to Lemieux's 199 points in 1989. The metrics and game have changed in three decade.

Hey, I'm cool not "grokking" what you have out there, but it doesn't do you any good if you're trying to communicate an opinion to a broader audience.

 

[Edge]

Even accounting for leather pads with horsehair stuffing, it’s rather easy to compare stats over eras: needless to say a father & son who are the same height and the same league drawing from the same talent pool(even though the pool is diluted due to league expansion) in a similar role shouldn’t have a scoring disparity like that, except they do.

We really need to frame this post an an example of when people go off the rails on these boards and can't understand why everyone is reacting with raised eyebrows and questions.

 

[Edge]

And to be clear, if someone doesn't like the hands, or the overall skill level, or the ability to stick at center, or other aspects of Greig's game when it comes to picking him at 22, that is perfectly alright.

I get that. It makes sense. There's a rational thought process there. So no objections.

But if we're seriously going to compare junior league scoring over a 30 year span it's going to be a long, weird road.

Now, if we want to express concern (or hope) that he's the next Sam Bennett? Totally makes sense.

 

[Edge]

what the f*** are you talking about with his dad? mark greig scored 27 points in 65 games as an 18 year old in the WHL. ridly greig scored 60 in 56 as an 18 year old. when mark greig put up 135 points as a 20 year old in the WHL, he had teammates put up 142, 140, 138, 120, and 119 in the same season. 10 players that season put up 138+ points. only 1 player scored 100 points in the WHL this year. are you for real?

To give people an idea of just how different the WHL was in 1990.

As an over-aged player, Len Barrie scored 85 goals and 185 points. Counting the playoffs, he scored 99 goals and 222 points in 87 games.

Scott Niedermayer averaged a point per game that season as a 16 year old. He finished 8th in scoring on the same team as Barrie.

To say that the numbers were a little inflated back then is an understatement.

And to your point, in his first draft eligible year Mark Greig scored 1 more total point than Ridly Greig scored goals --- despite being 8 months older in his draft season.

He went undrafted that year and the next, before finally getting picked as a 20 year old in 1990.

So even then we aren't comparing apples to apples.

 

[Barnaby]

are some people really comparing junior hockey stats from 2020 to stats in the 80s? thats utterly ridiculous.

It’s almost like no one has seen the movie Youngblood. It’s a different game today.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Even accounting for leather pads with horsehair stuffing, it’s rather easy to compare stats over eras: needless to say a father & son who are the same height and the same league drawing from the same talent pool(even though the pool is diluted due to league expansion) in a similar role shouldn’t have a scoring disparity like that, except they do.

I'm sorry... what???

 

[Leetch3]

I'm sorry... what???

its extremely easy to compare if you have no interest in being right or accurate lol

 

[CaptTennille]

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think some of this is a bit harsh, but kudos to Will for an objective take.

I'd caution trying to compare numbers/analytics across leagues though. The OHL was basically pond hockey this year. I don't think Byfield should even be in the conversation for #2, let alone #1.

 

[bl02]

What do you guys thinking of trading down with Ottawa #22 for #28 and #33? I think may be a little in our favor but as much as I normally prefer not to trade down this may be the draft to have 2 picks in that 25-40 range.

 

[Edge]

I think some of this is a bit harsh, but kudos to Will for an objective take.

I'd caution trying to compare numbers/analytics across leagues though. The OHL was basically pond hockey this year. I don't think Byfield should even be in the conversation for #2, let alone #1.

I feel like he was pretty objective though.

For as talented as Lafreniere is, he's still a teenager and he plays against other teenagers. But I do think some of the things that were pointed out are very teachable and can be developed.

I will also point out that the criticism of him trying to do it all himself is something that is very consistent with top overall picks. They are so used to being head and shoulders above their competition, that a lot of times they just handle the play themselves.

But I think that's truly interesting about the Rangers being able to land someone like Lafreniere is that we will have the ability to put talent around him. And as Lafreniere starts getting used to having NHL-calibre linemates, I think his game expands and grows to utilize the talent around him.

It's just such a different conversation when you start getting into the realm of someone like Lafreniere. It really is.

 

[Leetch3]

What do you guys thinking of trading down with Ottawa #22 for #28 and #33? I think may be a little in our favor but as much as I normally prefer not to trade down this may be the draft to have 2 picks in that 25-40 range.

cop out answer is it depends on who is on the board at 22...I feel like there is a good chance someone will be there that its not worth moving down

 

[bobbop]

It's tough to predict. Chytil played exclusively on the wing in his draft year. Hayes played wing for 4 full years in college before switching to center in the NHL. Aho was a winger until he got to the NHL as well.

I can't speak for his whole career but Hayes played center as a senior

 

[bl02]

cop out answer is it depends on who is on the board at 22...I feel like there is a good chance someone will be there that its not worth moving down

Not a cop out at all since it would work both ways. Ottawa would have to like someone at #22 that fit for them.
Also a risk for us since if someone like Greig who I guess the Rangers like may not make it to #28.

 

[NYSPORTS]

To give people an idea of just how different the WHL was in 1990.

As an over-aged player, Len Barrie scored 85 goals and 185 points. Counting the playoffs, he scored 99 goals and 222 points in 87 games.

Scott Niedermayer averaged a point per game that season as a 16 year old. He finished 8th in scoring on the same team as Barrie.

To say that the numbers were a little inflated back then is an understatement.

And to your point, in his first draft eligible year Mark Greig scored 1 more total point than Ridly Greig scored goals --- despite being 8 months older in his draft season.

He went undrafted that year and the next, before finally getting picked as a 20 year old in 1990.

So even then we aren't comparing apples to apples.

and the exciting 1990 WHL penalty champ

Most Penalty Minutes in One WHL Season

 

[Edge]

and the exciting 1990 WHL penalty champ

Most Penalty Minutes in One WHL Season

It's funny, we talk about how other-worldly some of those offensive numbers look in 2020. But many of those old-school PIMs look like something out of a video game as well.