Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VI

[Edge]

The for/against-Lundell stuff on this board seems to sway back and forth from week to week, one week the for crowd is talking about him a bit more, then the next week it's the against crowd

I think people have a perception of what they think he is, and not necessarily what he actually is. I would also say that being a Swedish or Finnish prospect usually takes the board a little longer to come around on.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think people have a perception of what they think he is, and not necessarily what he actually is. I would also say that being a Swedish or Finnish prospect usually takes the board a little longer to come around on.

There's also this notion that if a forward (especially a center) is good defensively, he's automatically not that good offensively

 

[Edge]

There's also this notion that if a forward (especially a center) is good defensively, he's automatically not that good offensively

Look, I'll put it out there too, I think the board (right, wrong, otherwise) tends to view their Swedish and Finnish players/prospects as "nice two-way types" who pop in 40-50 points and serve in middle six roles.

And, in the board's defense, this team doesn't have a lot of examples to contradict that. So that perception is rooted in multiple generations of exposure and experience. As a result, it can be hard to break from that mindset.

 

[Barnaby]

Man I really want to get Lundell too.

I think Lundell becomes this years Zegras. A guy we get to really like and think we have a shot of getting by moving up just to have those hopes dashed and that player to progress as well or better than expected.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but that seems to be the most likely scenario.

On a side note, I think Seth Jarvis has the potential to really be a good fit here if he falls to the late teens and we can swing up to get him. He'd give us some depth at RW and gives a bit of grit going forward that I think this team can use an injection of without just being a 'grinder'. He's a good PK guy as well.

 

[aufheben]

I think people have a perception of what they think he is, and not necessarily what he actually is. I would also say that being a Swedish or Finnish prospect usually takes the board a little longer to come around on.

I have no perception of him. I watched 8 minutes of scouting clips on him and literally never figured out which player he actually was.

 

[Edge]

I have no perception of him. I watched an 8-minutes of scouting clips on him and literally never figured out which player he actually was.

I can't answer that, it's like like trying to tell someone why they can't see a certain color or pick out a taste or smell.

But I also think that if you only spent 8 minutes watching Lundell, you've probably spent 8 more minutes watching him than a good portion of this board would care to admit.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I can't answer that, it's like like trying to tell someone why they can't see a certain color or pick out a taste or smell.

But I also think that if you only spent 8 minutes watching Lundell, you've probably spent 8 more minutes watching him than a good portion of this board would care to admit.

 

[True Blue]

I think Lundell becomes this years Zegras. A guy we get to really like and think we have a shot of getting by moving up just to have those hopes dashed and that player to progress as well or better than expected.

I think that Lundell goes in the top 10. But what they can offer along with the Canes pick is not getting them into the top-10. And when I say "can offer", it's because I highly doubt that they are moving a DeAngelo or Strome or Buchnevich for a top 10 pick.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Can't wait for Lundell to be picked by the Devils.

 

[JCProdigy]

He's an incredibly smart player who plays a game that looks like it could translate very well to the NHL. He's not skills competition prospect who is out there dangling around a 16 year old defenseman and handing him his lunch.

He's calculated and efficient and effective. He find the open guy, makes the high probability play, and sees the ice very well. He's capable of beating goalies with his shot, though he probably needs to use it more. But he's always in the middle of a play and usually makes things happen.

When I see Lundell, I see a kid with a high probablity to play center in the NHL. The only question is how high the offense will be. Some people think he might be more a 2/3 center. Personally, I think his potential is on the higher end of the second line tier. I know a few teams that view him as more of a 1A/B type not all that different from the level a prime Brassard and Stepan hit.

But he's one of those guys who plays a game that has a clear trajectory to the NHL. You can see how his game works and it's not hard to imagine it working in the NHL --- because it revolves around vision and hockey sense.

So Lias Andersson's scouting report on draft day....

....DON'T KILL ME PEOPLE. I WAS JUST JOKING. and pointing out some of the scouting similarities....

 

[Edge]

I think that Lundell goes in the top 10. But what they can offer along with the Canes pick is not getting them into the top-10. And when I say "can offer", it's because I highly doubt that they are moving a DeAngelo or Strome or Buchnevich for a top 10 pick.

One of the things we really can't forget is which teams are ahead of us.

The odds of New Jersey being open to trading down with us aren't great. Right now, they have two picks that are within our trade-up range from 24.

In order to leapfrog them, we'd have to get higher than we currently are. And that could be a big difference sitting at 21 vs. 24.

So let's assume the Canes pick ends up at 21. You're probably looking at picks 19, and then 17-15 (with the latter really, really pushing it). In most cases, I'd say Chicago at 17 or Calgary at 19 are your best bets.

That's not likely to be Lundell range. Right now, that might not even be Jarvis or Mercer range --- especially considering Montreal picks at 16 and I have a feeling that a guy like Mercer is going to look very appealing to them for a number of reasons.

Personally, I don't know where the Rangers have Mercer. He's one of three guys I would move up for with the Canes pick, but I don't know if the Rangers share that perspective.

But if they did, I think two key factors would be Mercer getting past Montreal, and the Rangers being in that 21 slot.

 

[bigdog16]

There's also this notion that if a forward (especially a center) is good defensively, he's automatically not that good offensively

I don't really tend to see that notion. I just don't see much more than a 3rd line center. He's pretty bland to be honest

Can't wait for Lundell to be picked by the Devils.

This probably happens. And he probably puts up multiple 90 point seasons and i eat my foot

 

[Barnaby]

I think that Lundell goes in the top 10. But what they can offer along with the Canes pick is not getting them into the top-10. And when I say "can offer", it's because I highly doubt that they are moving a DeAngelo or Strome or Buchnevich for a top 10 pick.

I don't think Strome has that value due to career inconsistency, and I think he's more valuable here due to his chemistry with Panarin.

I thing if DeAngelo is moved, then it's likely for a young roster player who can step right in.

Buchnevich is the wild card for me. I don't really see the Rangers committing to him long term and his value along with that Carolina pick might get them into that 8-12 area. I wouldn't bank on that happening but it wouldn't shock me to see them do it or hear that they looked into it. Rangers already have Kreider and Panarin locked into long term deals with two high picks in Laf and Kakko already invested in wingers.

 

[bl02]

Can't wait for Lundell to be picked by the Devils.

Where they sit and their needs I think that would be a mistake. Gonna be talent that fits their needs much more at #7. And no way Lundell is dropping to 18th for the Arizona pick they own.

 

[Barnaby]

Buffalo, Edmonton, Florida, or Minnesota are teams I could see entertaining a trade down.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Buchnevich is the wild card for me. I don't really see the Rangers extending him long term and his value along with that Carolina pick might get them into that 8-12 area. I wouldn't bank on that happening but it wouldn't shock me to see them do it or hear that they looked into it.

Agree about Buchnevich yet i wonder if moving him is premature.

We kinda know what he is. Buy low, sell high? I wonder what his stats might look like with a Laf on the wing. Buch’s points could really take off making his trade value higher so wondering if keeping him until maybe the deadline is better.

 

[True Blue]

I don't the Strome has that value due to career inconsistency and I think he's more valuable here due to his chemistry with Panarin.

I thing if DeAngelo is moved, then it's likely for a young roster player who can step right in.

Buchnevich is the wild card for me. I don't really see the Rangers extending him long term and his value along with that Carolina pick might get them into that 8-12 area. I wouldn't bank on that happening but it wouldn't shock me to see them do it or hear that they looked into it.

As we have learned, nothing can be too shocking. I'm with you on Strome. DeAngelo as well, and it is even tougher since he would demand a lot of value back. Buchnevich, I agree in general that he will be moved and not be here long term. But again, I believe that it will not be for a pick.

I think that in general people tend to disparage what all of those players have done, which makes moving them for nothing but futures an easy blurt.

 

[Edge]

So Lias Andersson's scouting report on draft day....

....DON'T KILL ME PEOPLE. I WAS JUST JOKING. and pointing out some of the scouting similarities....

Not really through.

Andersson was more of an energy guy who went into the hard areas, scored from weird angles, never gave up on the play and jumpstarted his linemates --- including one Elias Pettersson. His game was based around reaction, and effort, and a bit of grittiness.

Lundell is more cerebral. He's more of a playmaker, he's more comfortable passing than shooting at this point, he's bigger and has a larger frame than Andersson at this stage, and he's more efficient of a player on the ice.

Truthfully, he's more similar to Pettersson at the same age than Andersson. Not saying he's going to become Pettersson, but no one is mentioning names like ROR or Horvat when they talk about Lundell.

There are two main challenges we face.

The first is that we get a certain vision in our head and everyone is suddenly compared to that player. Just look at how often Derek Stepan is cited as an example for almost every type of forward who isn't a speed demon.

It's like like wine tasting. When people start they compare wines to discripters they are comfortable with - it tastes sour, it tastes sweet, it tastes acidic, etc. As they experience more, you start hearing notes about plums, or vanilla, or dark berries, or stone, or spice, etc.

The second challenge is that many of the scouting reports out there are as generic as can be. If you read half the stuff out there, you'd think everyone is a good skater, with a good shot, decent size, and good hockey sense. Literally they are copy and paste reports with little to no differential. I won't get into why that is, but we all know it's true.

One of the benefits we have on here, is that people can go a little deeper. We have people who can talk about the nuances, or how someone skates, or what they don't do. And sometimes that's not popular. People pick favorite prospects based on stat lines, or leagues, or a highlight video. And those things, while useful, can be misleading as well. But people form strong opinions from that, and sometimes moving that needle can be very difficult.

 

[Trxjw]

I think the only way the Rangers get up into Lundell range is to "trade up" via a player. I.e. they send a player to get a pick in the 8-12 range and then flip the Canes pick for another player. I have a hard time seeing any team wanting to drop 8+ spots, especially in a draft that seems to have 1-15 and 15-40ish groupings.

 

[Barnaby]

As we have learned, nothing can be too shocking. I'm with you on Strome. DeAngelo as well, and it is even tougher since he would demand a lot of value back. Buchnevich, I agree in general that he will be moved and not be here long term. But again, I believe that it will not be for a pick.

I think that in general people tend to disparage what all of those players have done, which makes moving them for nothing but futures an easy blurt.

I could see Buchnevich being a guy they'd like to move in a package for a LD, but who knows if there is a right deal out there. I think there's always multiple teams out there looking to sure up their defense - maybe less of a market for a guy like Buch.

 

[NYSPORTS]

The second challenge is that many of the scouting reports out there are as generic as can be. If you read half the stuff out there, you'd think everyone is a good skater, with a good shot, decent size, and good hockey sense. Literally they are copy and paste reports with little to no differential. I won't get into why that is, but we all know it's true.
.

great post, all of it.

We’ve all seen the draft. I don’t believe the commentary during the draft hasn’t praised each and every player selected. They’re all great and have most have played with men, etc. Which brings me to my question;

when would a Lundell be ready to contribute? Sure, the Rangers can wait for three years but can the fans with Kreider, Panarin and Zibby?

IMO, if the Rangers find a center the fans might be patient for a Lundell yet when these kids get hyped it’s tough for fans not to be impatient with the bar raised a bit.

 

[Fitzy]

Look, I'll put it out there too, I think the board (right, wrong, otherwise) tends to view their Swedish and Finnish players/prospects as "nice two-way types" who pop in 40-50 points and serve in middle six roles.

And, in the board's defense, this team doesn't have a lot of examples to contradict that. So that perception is rooted in multiple generations of exposure and experience. As a result, it can be hard to break from that mindset.

See your original post said 40 goals, which confused the hell out of me, lol.

This perception may just be based on what Andersson's scouting report was coming out of the draft. I don't think anyone thought Kakko would be a 40 point two way player, even those less bullish on him see a perennial 30 goal 60 point guy.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

great post, all of it.

We’ve all seen the draft. I don’t believe the commentary during the draft hasn’t praised each and every player selected. They’re all great and have most have played with men, etc. Which brings me to my question;

when would a Lundell be ready to contribute? Sure, the Rangers can wait for three years but can the fans with Kreider, Panarin and Zibby?

IMO, if the Rangers find a center the fans might be patient for a Lundell yet when these kids get hyped it’s tough for fans not to be impatient with the bar raised a bit.

The most cringe moment at a draft was last year when they compared Cole Caufield to Lionel Messi

 

[Edge]

See your original post said 40 goals, which confused the hell out of me, lol.

This perception may just be based on what Andersson's scouting report was coming out of the draft. I don't think anyone thought Kakko would be a 40 point two way player, even those less bullish on him see a perennial 30 goal 60 point guy.

Kakko is probably the exception.

But when we start getting outside of that "clearly he's at the top of this class" range, I think people think of names like Sundstrom, or Korpikoski when they think of a prospect from Sweden or Finland. I think Andersson also fit that mindset at the time.

 

[pblawr]

I'm hesitant to be too assertive about my opinions on prospects. It's tough to tell what an 18 year old is going to turn into by the time he's 24 and it's too easy to end up looking stupid when you make brash statements. With that caveat, I would count myself among the people who don't see Lundell's offensive upside.

If you look at the top scorers in the league, at a really high level, I think you can break them into basically three categories.

You've got superior athletes like McDavid and MacKinnon who excel at beating defenders one-on-one.

You've got playmakers like Panarin, Kucherov, or Kane who excel at controlling the puck, buying time, deceiving defenders, and making unexpected passes to open teammates in scoring positions, typically across the ice through opposing defenders.

You've got snipers like Ovechkin, Pastrnak, or Matthews. In general, they excel at taking hard, accurate shots off passes while the goalie is still out of position or shooting through screens where the goalie is unable to pick up the puck. Generally, they do it with defenders in their face or closing in on them quickly. They don't rack up goals by blowing shots past unobstructed, square goalies while defenders give them time and space.

A lot of the best players combine multiple of those skills together.

I don't see Lundell exhibit those skills with much frequency. I think I've watched every point he scored over the past year and the majority of them are either unobstructed passes to open teammates who then made a play or point blank shots where the defense gave him time and space. In general, the kind of things that do not translate well to scoring in the NHL.

There are other red flags too. His progression from 0.5 PPG in Liiga a year ago to 0.64 PPG this year was pretty modest even with an increase in ice time, and I wonder if that doesn't speak to a ceiling in terms of his offensive abilities. Despite being 2nd in his league in Corsi, he was only 77th in points, so while he was great at generating chances, he was pretty mediocre in terms of converting the chances he got into points. Half his goals came on the power play when the defense gave him extra time and space.

I don't mean to come across like I'm really down on Lundell. I'm not. I think the other things everyone is saying about him are true. He's great defensively. He's great at driving play. He's got a good shot. Posting the 2nd highest corsi in a pro league as a pre-draft player is really impressive. I wouldn't be upset at all if the Rangers drafted him (although I wouldn't be in favor of selling off the farm to take him in the top 10). I also could be totally wrong about him and it wouldn't be the first time. But, personally, I just don't see the offensive upside that other people do and it's not because of his nationality or because he's good defensively, it's because I don't think he exhibits the skills that it takes to be a high-scoring player in the NHL.