Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VI

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Gotta love Sens fans thinking they can get our pick by trading from 5 and keeping the 3 as well. :laugh:

The disparity between what other teams are willing to give up and what I want for Lafreniere may as well be measured in light years. They can whine about unrealistic trade expectations in a couple years, while Alf is face-washing one of their superstars as a goal celebration.
 
So a few years back, I did a comparison of the list Bob puts out, compared to how the drafts actually unfolded.

I did this for the 2016 and 2017 drafts and I think it's interesting to see how close he reasonably gets. I say this because I think his list is the one to watch when you're looking for names that could go higher than this board believes they should, and potentially lower.

2017BobActual 2016BobActual
1Nico HischierNico Hischier 1MatthewsAuston Matthews
2Nolan PatrickNolan Patrick 2LainePatrik Laine
3Miro HeiskanenMiro Heiskanen 3PuljujarviPierre-Luc Dubois
4Cale MakarCale Makar 4TkachukJesse Puljujarvi
5Gabe VilardiElias Pettersson 5DuboisOlli Juolevi
6Casey MittelstadtCody Glass 6JuoleviMatthew Tkachuk
7Elias PetterssonLias Andersson 7NylanderClayton Keller
8Cody GlassCasey Mittelstadt 8KellerAlexander Nylander
9Michael RasmussenMichael Rasmussen 9SergachevMikhail Sergachev
10Owen TippettOwen Tippett 10BrownTyson Jost
11Martin NecasGabriel Vilardi 11JostLogan Brown
12Nick SuzukiMartin Necas 12BeanMichael McLeod
13Lias AnderssonNick Suzuki 13ChychrunJake Bean
14Jusso ValimakiCal Foote 14McAvoyCharlie McAvoy
15Kristian VesalainenErik Brannstrom 15McLeodLuke Kunin
16Timothy LiljegrenJuuso Valimaki 16FabbroJakob Chychrun
17Eeli TolvanenTimothy Liljegren 17GauthierDante Fabbro
18Klim KostinUrho Vaakanainen 18BellowsLogan Stanley
19Ryan PoehlingJosh Norris 19JonesKieffer Bellows
20Callan FooteRobert Thomas 20KuninDennis Cholowski
21Robert ThomasFilip Chytil 21TufteJulien Gauthier
22Urho VaakanainenKailer Yamamoto 22StanleyGerman Rubtsov
23Josh NorrisPierre-Olivier Joseph 23RubtsovHenrik Borgstrom
24Kailer YamamotoKristian Vesalainen 24HowdenMax Jones
25Nicolas HagueRyan Poehling 25CholowskiRiley Tufte
26Jake OettingerJake Oettinger 26Hajek*Tage Thompson
27Isaac RatcliffeMorgan Frost 27ThompsonBrett Howden
28Conor TimminsShane Bowers 28JohansenLucas Johansen
29Erik BranstromHenri Jokiharju 29KatchoukTrent Frederic
30Jason RobertsonEeli Tolvanen 30ClagueSam Steel
31Filip ChytilKlim Kostin 31AsplundKorshkov
* 37 - Hajek
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
So a few years back, I did a comparison of the list Bob puts out, compared to how the drafts actually unfolded.

I did this for the 2016 and 2017 drafts and I think it's interesting to see how close he reasonably gets. I say this because I think his list is the one to watch when you're looking for names that could go higher than this board believes they should, and potentially lower.

boy did bob get the 7th pick in 2017 wrong
 
And that is very much a possibility to consider --- especially if you can add a second round pick or something of solid value.

This year will mark the first time in more than 40 years the Rangers use a first round pick on a player from the Q. It will mark the first time they've picked first overall since 1965, and the first time they've picked in the spot under the more modern concept of the draft.

Could it be the first time (in at least a very long time) that they trade down in the first as well?

Well, if you're going to do any or all of those things, this could could be the draft in which to do it.

Very good points. Lots of options and I just hope if they trade the pick for someone proven, it’s the right type of player.
 
I disagree with some of my fellow Ranger Hffers on the value of Tony DeAngelo. He is a 24 year old, right handed puck moving defenseman who has an above average shot, plays with grit and is willing to fight for himself and his teammates. Whatever short comings he is believed to have on the defensive side can be attributed to his pairings or that he still is developing that part of his game. Players of his caliber at the position he plays are scarce. I believe his value is worth way more than a prospect not in the top three of this draft year.
 
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It’s funny, I list Lundell, Mercer and Jarvis as the guys I would be most interested in moving up for, even at a higher cost.

And it’s not because I think they are head and shoulders the most talented guys on the board. You could make that claim, but it’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion.

It’s also not because I think any one of them is the favorite to be the highest scoring forward on the board either.

Nor is it because I look at them and inherently get images of first line roles in their future.

Instead it’s because I see three guys you win with. Guys who potentially play important roles on championships teams. Productive roles to be sure, but not necessarily roles that require nothing short of stardom to work out favorably. I feel these are the types of players who keep you in a game until someone like Lafreniere, or Kakko, or Panarin, or Zibanejad can break out.

Each would fill that role differently, and bring different strengths to the team, but I see that in all 3 of them.

And that’s kind of an insight into how I approach BPA. It’s not necessarily a straight statistical projection, or the guy with the most skill. It’s sometimes a balance or talent, how their game translates to the pros, and the value of the role they play.

Depending on the pick and the board, my BPA is the guy who makes a team better, not necessarily the guy who has all the highest individual skill points.

Don't get me wrong, I would've had Lundell in that group, too, but I definitely think he'll be gone by the late teens.

But I generally agree with your BPA assessment!!
 
I can say this with great certainty, if we were drafting a player type, Marat Khusnutdinov fits the bill perfectly for the type of center that would support Laf/Kakko, and even Kravy, best. He is very similar to Karl Henriksson in that regard.

This of course don’t matter one bit if he doesn’t become a good NHLer. But bridging the gap between the defense and wingers in the NHL is crucial. A really strong defensive team deep in a PO can make it awfully hard for a team to utilize a winger to the extent that they can get a ‘series winning’ performance from that winger. That is why it’s so important to be able to have centers with these guys that fast can turn up ice with the puck and threaten the defense, which will force them to ease up the pressure on the wingers which open things up.

Beyond this, it’s much harder to really pin down exactly how talented MK really is. He also illustrates perfectly the challenges of this year’s draft. Take Kotkaniemi for example, he had a very solid U18 and clearly showed that he was a notch above many of his peers ranked high before the draft. In an instant, he shot up 15 spots. With two guys on the same ice, it’s not overly hard to rank them. But it’s much harder to do the same — with precision — if you have one guy playing juniors in Canada and the other pro in Finland.

You can't really compare the two though in their draft years. Kotkaniemi played fully in Liiga in his draft year, whereas Khusnutdinov has only played in the MHL with a handful of non-specified international games. Not to mention that Kotka has 5 inches on him and 20+ pounds in their drafts. Kotkaniemi, although also not proven, still has a better chance at becoming a center than I think Marat does. Like you said it's hard to pinpoint his development, but there is a lot to like early on. Khusnutdinov will be a project pick, but the reward could be handsome.

I agree, though, I do think the Rangers are looking into players that play like Khusnutdinov and Henriksson is a perfect example of that.
 
Gotta love Sens fans thinking they can get our pick by trading from 5 and keeping the 3 as well. :laugh:
Indeed. When the premise of the hypothetical is that the team holding the top asset is somehow compelled to move that asset, the hypothetical is DOA. It’s ass-backward. Like “If you want to trade the 1OA, here’s where you’ve got to start for me to pick up the phone”. Laughable. It’s always the other way around.

edit: I probably could have said this more clearly. What I mean is: The Rangers aren’t *making* the calls on 1OA. If anything, they’re *taking* those calls.
 
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So a few years back, I did a comparison of the list Bob puts out, compared to how the drafts actually unfolded.

I did this for the 2016 and 2017 drafts and I think it's interesting to see how close he reasonably gets. I say this because I think his list is the one to watch when you're looking for names that could go higher than this board believes they should, and potentially lower.

2017BobActual2016BobActual
1Nico HischierNico Hischier1MatthewsAuston Matthews
2Nolan PatrickNolan Patrick2LainePatrik Laine
3Miro HeiskanenMiro Heiskanen3PuljujarviPierre-Luc Dubois
4Cale MakarCale Makar4TkachukJesse Puljujarvi
5Gabe VilardiElias Pettersson5DuboisOlli Juolevi
6Casey MittelstadtCody Glass6JuoleviMatthew Tkachuk
7Elias PetterssonLias Andersson7NylanderClayton Keller
8Cody GlassCasey Mittelstadt8KellerAlexander Nylander
9Michael RasmussenMichael Rasmussen9SergachevMikhail Sergachev
10Owen TippettOwen Tippett10BrownTyson Jost
11Martin NecasGabriel Vilardi11JostLogan Brown
12Nick SuzukiMartin Necas12BeanMichael McLeod
13Lias AnderssonNick Suzuki13ChychrunJake Bean
14Jusso ValimakiCal Foote14McAvoyCharlie McAvoy
15Kristian VesalainenErik Brannstrom15McLeodLuke Kunin
16Timothy LiljegrenJuuso Valimaki16FabbroJakob Chychrun
17Eeli TolvanenTimothy Liljegren17GauthierDante Fabbro
18Klim KostinUrho Vaakanainen18BellowsLogan Stanley
19Ryan PoehlingJosh Norris19JonesKieffer Bellows
20Callan FooteRobert Thomas20KuninDennis Cholowski
21Robert ThomasFilip Chytil21TufteJulien Gauthier
22Urho VaakanainenKailer Yamamoto22StanleyGerman Rubtsov
23Josh NorrisPierre-Olivier Joseph23RubtsovHenrik Borgstrom
24Kailer YamamotoKristian Vesalainen24HowdenMax Jones
25Nicolas HagueRyan Poehling25CholowskiRiley Tufte
26Jake OettingerJake Oettinger26Hajek*Tage Thompson
27Isaac RatcliffeMorgan Frost27ThompsonBrett Howden
28Conor TimminsShane Bowers28JohansenLucas Johansen
29Erik BranstromHenri Jokiharju29KatchoukTrent Frederic
30Jason RobertsonEeli Tolvanen30ClagueSam Steel
31Filip ChytilKlim Kostin31AsplundKorshkov
* 37 - Hajek
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
He always says, its not 'his rankings' its the consensus of the scouts he talks to.

So Lundell may be possible at 12ish. A lot easier than getting into the top10
 
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Indeed. When the premise of the hypothetical is that the team holding the top asset is somehow compelled to move that asset, the hypothetical is DOA. It’s ass-backward. Like “If you want to trade the 1OA, here’s where you’ve got to start for me to pick up the phone”. Laughable. It’s always the other way around.
You can only explain to them so many times that we don’t want or need to trade that asset, and because of that we can set the price for it.
 
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