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2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part II

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Stauffer reported the JP stuff after Forever Blueshirts did, so I wonder if he got it from Anthony or if he heard it from an Oilers source that they're still considering the swap. I'd do Andersson and a 3rd, that's it. If they whiff, try to move Andersson for Borgstrom in a deal.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
I doubt a team trades out of the 1st this year. Would be nice to pull off a 2017-like deal. Strome+Georgiev for a top-10 pick
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Would love that. And frankly the Rangers don’t need NUMBERS, they need quality at this point. If a team still wants a first.... ok.... Georgiev and our Carolina pick for a top 10 pick. The team can still pick in the first. They aren’t trading out completely.

Then we pick at 13 and, say, 8 hypothetically.
 
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pblawr said:
I agree with you that Sanderson probably won't be there at 13 and I think that's likely the case with Quinn too. But if those guys aren't there, someone else has to drop and I'd be happy with that too. We just need Askarov and one unexpected player to get picked before us and it's guaranteed that there will be someone who's really good there.

I think you are overthinking it with Quinn. He scored more goals in his pre-draft season than everyone in the OHL in the last 20 years except for Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, and John Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey 3 years ago. That just strikes me as something that's obviously remarkable and speaks to a pretty incredible level of talent.

He's got the tools to be an elite goal scorer in the NHL - he's got the best shot in the draft, ridiculous hands, speed to blow by guys on the rush, and he can score in the dirty areas. On top of that, he's a two-way player who killed penalties for the top team in the OHL and is effective at winning puck battles and driving play. His game isn't perfect, but neither is anyone else's. I agree with you that he doesn't think the game at an elite level (although he's not terrible) but an elite goal scorer who drives play at both ends of the ice is still a really valuable player. Finally, he's behind on the development curve and has improved his game at a faster rate than basically everyone else in the draft and I think the upside associated with that is really intriguing.

Kreider-lite / faster Tom Wilson is kind of tomato / tomato for me. I'm fine with that kind of player later in the first or after that, but I would prefer someone who has the potential to play a top role with a lottery pick. Howden and Lemieux fall into the same bucket for me too.

For me, the character concerns about Gunler have been thoroughly debunked by @Amazing Kreiderman and @ManUtdTobbe among other guys and I think his production in the SHL, adjusted for his age and ice time, is definitely worthy of a high pick. The one thing that does give me pause with Gunler is that I've seen a few places where his peripheral stats look pretty pedestrian. I don't think he's lazy but I do wonder if he has the skating / athletic ability to play away from the puck at an NHL level.



We're on the same page with Zary. There is a lot to like about him, but the skating / transition game is a big enough hole in his game that I'd prefer someone else with our first pick.

I like the Barzal comp for Jarvis. I don't think Jarvis has as much as skill / creativity as Barzal does, but the way he uses his skating ability and work ethic to drive play is similar. Jarvis's production is obviously off the charts, and it's not like he doesn't have any skill, but from what I've seen, his skill doesn't line up with his production for me and I kind of wonder if a guy who's 5'10" and 170 lbs can drive play in the NHL based on his physical skills. I like his skating / work ethic enough that I'd still bet on him, but he wouldn't be my very top choice with the 13th pick.

I agree about Mercer. I think he's kind of similar to Zary but without as big of a hole in terms of the skating.

I posted about Lapierre above, but I really think the injury risk is worth taking in the 20's. The risk of a player at that point never making the NHL is high enough that I don't think the injury risk really moves the needle that much, especially given how common recoveries from injuries are. Smoking cigarettes is dangerous, but I don't think it would really change the life expectancy of someone who's an assassin. If Lapierre gets healthy, which lets be honest is probably what's going to happen, you're getting a guy who might have been a top 10 pick otherwise. I think the difference between the likelihood of someone like that and the kind of guy who would normally get picked at 23 becoming an impact NHL player is way bigger than the risk associated with an injury and guys with that kind of skill are so important and so tough to find outside the top 10. He might be my top choice with the 2nd pick.

I agree with you about Wallinder being an all tools no tool box kind of player, but his toolbox is f*cking ridiculous and he's one of the youngest players in the draft. I'm not under the illusion that there isn't a lot of risk associated with that kind of player, I'm just inclined to gamble on the guys with really elite upside.

Perreault is similar. His game off the puck might never be good enough for him to play in the NHL. But he could also become one of the best players from the draft.

Yeah, I've seen Andrae / Grans lower in draft lists too, and I'd be ecstatic if we could get them in the 3rd or trade up to take them after 1st. Andrae, in particular. A lot of times though, I think other teams have picked up on the guys you think slipped the cracks too and I probably like Andrae more than a lot of the consensus options who would be there at 23. I saw one report that Andrae had a +11% Corsi Rel in the SHL. The sample size is really small, for sure, but it's tough to imagine an outlier that big with a bad player. Other than the fact that he's 5'9", it seems like he's got everything you could want in a defenseman. He's sound defensively, he's tough physically, he's really smart, he's a really agile, evasive skater, some of the stuff he does with the puck is ridiculous (in the clip below, he takes some Finnish player to summer camp) and he processes the game incredibly well with the puck on his stick, and creates a lot of offense too. And I'm not sure that it really matters that he's 5'9". He probably doesn't have the upside to be a truly elite, #1 defenseman, but he could be a really good player.

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On Sanderson.... Yeah definitely think someone will drop, assuming one of those center prospects or Holtz. Askarov I have a feeling will go in the top 10 to a team desperate for a future No. 1 (Cough*Cough* Ottawa or Chicago).

On Quinn.... See that's the thing that worries me about the slow, non-elite decisions away from his possession; will he be more of a PP specialist or will he be a complete top 6 winger in the NHL? For someone that hasn't been focused on hockey for too long, it's risky for me to grab a potential one dimensional player that early in the draft. Goal scorers tend to be streaky on a seasonal basis. Will he be able to put up another 50+ goal season in his D+1? It's hard to tell right now, especially with Ottawa losing most of their players this offseason. He's going to be counted on heavily next year. Hopefully I am overthinking it because it would be a solid get to grab him, but I think given the "what ifs" at hand I would be okay with it if NYR took him with the second 1st rounder. I think we might agree to disagree, ATM, mate.

On Holloway.... My friend, you definitely undervalue Holloway. He is no where like Lemieux or Howden. He's faster and has a better knack for scoring goals. Someone who can play a physically offensive role causing turnovers and agitation towards opponents. He's skillful, too. Has the speed to blow by defenders one-on-one and move on net like a prototypical PF should do. He crashes the net and finishes his checks. His most underrated skill, though, is his puck possession. He knows how to keep the puck and use his speed to his advantage to set up plays. I honestly feel Wisconsin was just so out of it as a whole this year that his stats don't justify his play. 14 of his 17 points this year were all even strength, while barely playing the PP. Again, my only knock on him is that he could go a little too far in his agitation antics, just like Tom Wilson. If he can clean that up a bit, he'll be a special player.

On Gunler.... Yeah I tend to agree with @Amazing Kreiderman and @ManUtdTobbe on the outside information with him. The most recent Nils Lundkvist interview, also, denotes Gunler's off-ice tendencies to be falsified by media. I think he'll do just fine. But when watching him, he definitely puts pressure on his opponents away from the puck and digs in to get the puck. I don't know where this info on his play away from the puck came from, but he's not lazy on the ice. He could use some work on his stride, but again, he looked a lot faster in his second half than his first half. I think playing in the SHL at 18 years old, while putting up decent numbers, should definitely give him high accolades in the draft.

On Jarvis.... Yeah definitely agree that he's not Barzal or Marner, just stylistically speaking he is similar. I for one think, though, that if a player is producing at a top notch level like that and still looking like a player to those above, why wouldn't a team try to go for the home run pick? He has plenty of time to develop a better motor, physicality and higher IQ to match the aforementioned superstars. He's in the middle side of the draft age so it'll come with time. Scoring just shy of 100 points in arguably the CHL's toughest junior league shouldn't be unnoticed. I would happily go with the home run pick if he's at No. 13.

On Mercer.... Think he's got a better physical attribute to his game than Zary, but I could see the similarities. Zary's skating is just not the best. If he could work on that and gain a 2nd and 3rd gear, I honestly think he'd have the better potential NHL career. That's no knock on Mercer. Think Zary has better playmaking ability, but Mercer is a goal scorer.

On Lapierre.... Sorry, mate, think you're wrong on this. He skates with his head down and isn't physical enough to take hits in the Q rather than pros. There's a reason behind his concussion/neck issues. He's going to get wrecked in the pros. His skill isn't good enough to take on that consistent injury risk, either. He's one more head issue away from career threatening. Also, defensively he could use some work. He gets knocked down too much, too. He really needs to gain more physicality. Obviously his playmaking ability is at a high degree, but it won't come to fruition unless he works on some fundamentals like keeping your head up, as well as the defensive side/getting stronger. ATM, too much of a liability to go in the first round for me.

On Wallinder.... Agreed. Definitely worth a gamble if a team has the strength in depth and an abundance of picks. I think with NYR's needs for center and wing depth, though, it makes little sense for their first pick to be a high risk/high reward defender. They don't need defenders, but I wouldn't be opposed with BPA depth later on in the draft. Maybe with their second pick in the first round, but again would hope for a forward with top-6 potential.

On Perreault.... These are the type of players that go in the second round or later, IMO. Guys like Perreault, Poirier, Cormier, etc. have all the offensive talent in the world, but no clue on the defensive side of the puck. These can be developed later on, but obviously a bigger flaw if you don't have any clue. It won't matter in pro hockey unless a player can play in all three zones (unless you're a goalie, lolol). I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I can see some team reaching for him in the late first.

On Andrae and Grans.... Again, these kind of players will, also, go in the second round or rise, slightly, to the late first round. Small sample sizes in European pros aren't valued enough by scouting departments. It was the same reason why I was so high on Tobias Bjornfot last draft. In the small amount of time he had in the SHL, he looked like he belonged. Obviously SuperElit can't truly justify development going forward, but seeing a 17 year old seemingly sticking in the SHL, it raises eyebrows. These are what the industry call "under-the-radar" players. Andrae could ultimately be one, but the small sample size will bring him into late first/second round territory, unfortunately.
 
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bl02 said:
Seems like most of us would be happy with Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler and possibly Holloway at 13. I know many like Sanderson but I just feel we need to grab more forwards with serious potential.
Unfortunately, it's probably safe to say that one of Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler/Holloway don't fall to 23. Maybe Gunler but doubt it. And I still feel its very difficult to trade up in the first round this year (especially since we don't have any 2nd's).
Maybe we take a stab at a Perrault or if we are lucky a Mysak if he falls past the top 20.

Would you guys label Smilanic or Neighbours as guys worth grabbing at 23?
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Honestly, one of Holloway/Jarvis/Gunler/Quinn will be there at No. 13 with the potential of one of those top 10 centers falling (my early guess is Perfetti). I agree that they won't be there at No. 23, but from mocks that I've seen Gunler has gone from like No. 9 or 10 to like No. 29-31. Very uncertain where he's going to go. Jarvis I've seen recently go from early 20's to middle teens, so unsure where he ends up, too. I've seen Quinn take the biggest rise to around No. 13, but some mocks still had him in the later teens.

Don't want Perreault with NYR's first round picks. He can't play defense. He still needs to develop that side of the rink. Mysak I'm down for at No. 23.

I'd be okay with Neighbours, but I might be a more interested in Schneider, Peterka, Reichel, Amirov along with potential slides in Gunler, Mercer and Jarvis. Smilanic is a slight reach at No. 23, IMO, but I do think a team will grab him in the late first round. I absolutely wouldn't mind a "reach" on Eamon Powell, though. He has super high hockey IQ. Could be the next Fox!!
 
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Joey Bones said:
On Gunler.... Yeah I tend to agree with @Amazing Kreiderman and @ManUtdTobbe on the outside information with him. The most recent Nils Lundkvist interview, also, denotes Gunler's off-ice tendencies to be falsified by media. I think he'll do just fine. But when watching him, he definitely puts pressure on his opponents away from the puck and digs in to get the puck. I don't know where this info on his play away from the puck came from, but he's not lazy on the ice. He could use some work on his stride, but again, he looked a lot faster in his second half than his first half. I think playing in the SHL at 18 years old, while putting up decent numbers, should definitely give him high accolades in the draft.
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A lot of the issues were, I think, based on his final months in SuperElit. He "didn't put the effort in" but he didn't really have to. He coasted through SuperElit at a pace that was unreal.

In his D-1 season, Gunler ranked:
10th in points with 46
4th in P/GP with 1.5
2nd in goals with 27
1st in G/GP with 0.87

That's all time, by the way. He ranked 1st all-time in goals per game and 4th in points per game (min 10 GP). You can complain about him not giving it 100% but he was already outgrowing the level he played at. In the SHL that same season, he played 15 games, scoring 2 and assisting on 3 for 5 points.

Again, all-time ranking (min 10 GP).
7th in points with 5
3rd in P/GP with 0.33
6th in goals with 2
5th in G/GP with 0.13

Gunler was ready for the next step over a year ago. He was dominating SuperElit without putting in the effort. But when he got a shot at the SHL, the effort was there. He didn't, to me at least, show any complacency. He responds well to coaching on the bench by both team mates and coaches. The head coach never complained about him. I value what a player does for his club 100 times more than what a coach for the national team says.
 
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mschmidt64 said:
I’m just throwing out the names Eichel and Barkov as the type of player I’d be trolling for. Under 25 with 70-80+ point potential, true #1 center type. It might have to be a less obvious target like Zibanejad was obviously, but even he was clearly developing into something decent at least when we traded for him. He was not a reclamation project. Granted these teams are not looking to just move those players, so I’m thinking down the line a little maybe when they communicate that they will not resign with Buffalo or Florida and are looking to test free agency, etc. Those schisms occasionally occur, not that I’m saying it will happen to these players necessarily.

Secondly, it doesn’t have to be that exact package, but I think you are being a little gunshy about what we should be willing to give. We have no more room for upcoming defensive prospects. We have a surplus. If you aren’t rolling them over for other assets, you will lose them to free agency without them ever making your roster.

Why should I be concerned that I overpay? Because I could have included one less asset in a package for Barkov and instead have parlayed that into an extra late first?

If I get my number one center for pieces that don’t have a clear path to my roster, I kinda don’t care about an overpay within reason.

If 28 year old Nash cost a first, a top-4 D prospect in Erixon, and two 40 pointish forwards in Dubinsky and Anisimov, you can bet the #1 center that we should be chasing will need a more enticing package. Hence, a younger, higher upside roster piece (Buch), and two nicer D prospects. I may be overpaying a bit but I don’t think my proposal was an “insane” overpayment.

What do you think is a fair package for a similar target? Perhaps you think that any such deal is just not worth it for the Rangers, but with the surplus in assets they have and decided lack of options at the most important spot in hockey, I can’t agree. This must be addressed more aggressively than just drafting Connor Zary.
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I wouldn't make a trade like that at all because NYR already has a No. 1 center in Zibanejad long term and have Panarin locked up at over $11.5M. Where does Eichel ($10M) and Barkov ($6M) fit in the cap? You're not trading Buch away to gain an extra $3-$7M in cap for slight increase in offense. I say slight because this will put NYR in an unnecessary situation where they would need to sell another asset just to be cap compliant. Not worth the risk when management could develop their own No. 2 on an ELC or re-sign Strome short term and build team chemistry. This isn't Sather managing anymore.

And no, I don't want NYR to grab Zary with their first pick. He has skating issues....
 
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Mikos87 said:
Best value for the Rangers would be to get

13: Quinn/Jarvis
23: Gunler/Neighbours/Peterka/Perrault

Getting two middle six wingers on ELC will help the team during it's contention window. This is why I don't trade picks to move up. I can understand trading a pick for a young roster player, but the Rangers need to get a couple of hits.

From the above, I think a Quinn & Neighbours draft would be hailed as an awesome set of picks in 3 years. Peterka's another one to keep an eye for. Kid's got a couple of NHL traits.
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Would add Holloway to that list, too.
 
bobbop said:
Holloway feels like a Ranger pick to me.
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Honestly, Anyone from Sweden, NCAA or WHL seems like a pick they feel comfortable with. They definitely seem confident with the WHL scouting under Konowalchuk the last 2 years, European scouting has already been one of strength, and I am sure they saw a lot of Holloway while keeping tabs on Miller. Any of Holloway, Zary, Jarvis, Neighbours, Gunler, Hirvonen, Amirov and Guhle seem like sensible targets for our 1st round picks
 
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bobbop said:
Holloway feels like a Ranger pick to me.
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This guy actually puts together some good video on prospects. Tend to agree with everything on Holloway, however, I see him more like Tom Wilson than Pacioretty. Landeskog is a good comparison, too!!
 
Mikos87 said:
A really thoughtful series of posts as usual Edge. Very well stated. Replies to points in bold.

  • Ye and good forwards are there for the taking. I see a drop-off of defensemen after the top 2. This hasn't been a good year for a consensus class of defensemen at a second tier below Drysdale and Sanderson, but that doesn't mean that defensemen aren't going to be there.
  • Easily.
  • There is a lot to like, but there are players with higher offensive potential at 13, but Dylan is more of an assured quantity. The skating, that's that gets him an NHL look.
  • Yes- the hustle, and the willingness to check are what keeps him there imo. In two years, it will be hard to deny that Holloway is one of the top 450 best skating forwards out there that can play a complimentary role up and down the line-up. Looking at this way, he is going to be a guy on an ~$950k ELC for three years that can contribute high quality nhl minutes, even if it's getting cups of coffee to start.
  • Yes. Heard that across the board, at a 15-15 winger on the 3rd line, he's a value added asset because he can forecheck, and clear up room and space with this skating. That helps a team contend with a ELC and a player whose contributions and over deliver on that value for the role.
  • Which is why I feel he's one of the safest players in the draft. You will get a good hit with this player. But one you may need to trade in the future because of cap issues. By the time he's up for a raise, a bunch of other guys will be locked up.
I say you take him if you feel he can help you win. I think his versatility gives a team additional depth because he can play in a couple of different spots. He plays the game like an old school Alberta boy. There aren't a lot of kids with that kind of moxy as a part of their identity. This kid does. I think he's genuine in the way he plays the game.
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Worth nothing that when we start getting to say the 13th pick, you're going to have choices with varying degrees of risk and reward.

Some guys will bring questions about upside, or at least offensive upside, some will rely heavily on skills but play a game that is going to need a lot of refinement against men, some guys are steady but unspectacular, and some guys are mystery prizes.

Last year we were fortunate that there wasn't any debate about who to take second overall. It was going to be one of Hughes or Kakko.

This year, the choice will be imperfect and debatable.
 
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pblawr said:
Quinn and Sanderson would be my top choices at #13, although I think it might be more likely that one of the consensus top guys drops to us, which I'd be happy with too.

Quinn's scored more goals this season than every draft eligible player in the OHL in the last 20 years outside of Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey like 3 years ago. The counterpoints about him being an older player on a very good team are legitimate, but I think he's one of the highest upside players in the draft.

Sanderson strikes me as a more polished version of K'Andre. He's really good at using his reach and skating ability to shut down rushes, create exits and entries, and tilt the ice in his team's favor. I don't think he's a top offensive player, but I think what he does defensively and in terms of driving possession is just as valuable, and he's still got enough offensive skill to contribute too. Imagine how tough it would be to score on us with if we had two McDonagh types on the left side in front of Shesterkin. I think there's truth in the saying that "defense wins championships."

Gunler wouldn't be my top choice, but I wouldn't be upset about him either.

I worry about how bad Zary's transition stats are. If he's that bad in the WHL, he's going to have to improve a lot to be an NHL player.



I'd be ok with Holloway. His point production in the NCAA was pretty bad, but I get more comfortable with it based on the fact that it was good outside of one long 14 game slump and that he scored 9 in his last 10 after being switched to the wing. He strikes me as kind of a "Kreider-lite." Not much playmaking ability, but impressive speed, strength, and work ethic. Still, I wonder if a slower version of Kreider is more than a 3rd line player in the NHL and I'd prefer someone with more skill and upside with a lottery pick.

I'd be ok with Jarvis, Mercer, or potentially Andrae too, especially with the 2nd pick, and I'm pretty intrigued by Lapierre and Perreault or even a Wallinder or Grans as high-risk / high-reward options with the 2nd pick.

My personal hope would probably be Quinn, Sanderson, or one of the consensus top guys at #13 and Gunler, Holloway, Jarvis, Mercer, Andrae, Lapierre, or Perreault at #23.
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The appeal of someone like Holloway is potentially that he's an ultimate support player, with a chance to be more of his clicks with the right guys.

The downside is, you could also end up with Eric Nystrom when Alex Semin is sitting on the board.
 
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