2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part II

[Blue Men Group]

If those 9 are gone (and they most likely will be, plus Askarov), here's my ranking of what's left:

- Gunler
- Zary
- Jarvis
- Amirov
- Sanderson
- Nybeck
- Holloway
- Neighbours

Where do you have Quinn and Mercer?

 

[Thirty One]

I drafted Dylan Holloway in Eastside Hockey Manager. He wasn’t much of a player, but has been very valuable to me as a scout after his playing career. Something to consider.

 

[Mikos87]

All depends on who's on the board.

When you start getting to that 13-14 range, fans have to be careful they don't start wish-casting because they prefer a forward.

Some of the forwards in those slots aren't necessarily better prospects than Sanderson now, to say nothing about 2-3 years down the line.

Having said that, I think he's off the board before the Rangers pick.

I expect Holloway's name to be the one most frequently listed beside the Rangers in mock drafts leading up the draft.

He's a name I've heard connected to the team, and I know they like him, just not sure if he's necessarily the guy at the top of their list.

For mock drafts? Probably not too much. At least not that I've seen,

Internally, a different matter. They would, in theory, have a good read on him - which can cut both ways for a prospect.

I know they like the wheels, the pursuit, and the North-South game. I think there's the opinion he's a guy who could slide into a number of different roles down the line.

The offensive upside is a bit of a question mark, but he does check off a number of other boxes they've expressed interest in. And if he's the best player on the board at that point, it could be a pretty easy decision for them.

A really thoughtful series of posts as usual Edge. Very well stated. Replies to points in bold.

• Ye and good forwards are there for the taking. I see a drop-off of defensemen after the top 2. This hasn't been a good year for a consensus class of defensemen at a second tier below Drysdale and Sanderson, but that doesn't mean that defensemen aren't going to be there.
• Easily.
• There is a lot to like, but there are players with higher offensive potential at 13, but Dylan is more of an assured quantity. The skating, that's that gets him an NHL look.
• Yes- the hustle, and the willingness to check are what keeps him there imo. In two years, it will be hard to deny that Holloway is one of the top 450 best skating forwards out there that can play a complimentary role up and down the line-up. Looking at this way, he is going to be a guy on an ~$950k ELC for three years that can contribute high quality nhl minutes, even if it's getting cups of coffee to start.
• Yes. Heard that across the board, at a 15-15 winger on the 3rd line, he's a value added asset because he can forecheck, and clear up room and space with this skating. That helps a team contend with a ELC and a player whose contributions and over deliver on that value for the role.
• Which is why I feel he's one of the safest players in the draft. You will get a good hit with this player. But one you may need to trade in the future because of cap issues. By the time he's up for a raise, a bunch of other guys will be locked up.

I say you take him if you feel he can help you win. I think his versatility gives a team additional depth because he can play in a couple of different spots. He plays the game like an old school Alberta boy. There aren't a lot of kids with that kind of moxy as a part of their identity. This kid does. I think he's genuine in the way he plays the game.

 

[Joey Bones]

Just curious. How do we know Wahlstrom is a total bust right now but Kravtsov isn’t?Just playing devils advocate. Not saying either are busts right now. I mean Kravtsov hasn’t lit the world on fire

Don't get me wrong, I didn't imply that. I think Wahlstrom is still a good prospect (he's looking a lot better now after that bad 1st half of NCAA).

I think it was the matter that most people in a massive environment for the draft were all chanting his name and there was a recent article if I remember correctly of Brooks stating that Wahlstrom was their guy and it seemed like a pretty convenient coincidence that most people started chanting his name and be disappointed with a Russian that most never heard of.

And the fact that two older gentlemen in front of us had to ask if he was a good prospect because they read that Wahlstrom was the guy, lolol.

 

[Joey Bones]

I was down to those 3 guys but I would have 1. Dobson 2. Kravtsov and 3. Wahlstrom. Wahlstrom had a great year with USNTDP but Kravtsov spent that year in the KHL and had a fantastic playoffs. Kravtsov had a good draft +1 year but this past season adjusting to North America was kind of iffy. I think Vitali has to work on strength and fill out a bit more. He's tall but he's not that strong. I think we're going to get at least a Buchnevich level player out of him if not better. Buchnevich came over at an older age and struggled with the same stuff. Pavel's a lot stronger than he was and has picked up his physical game quite a lot since his rookie year. So we're going to need to be patient with Kravtsov IMO but I think we're in a position where we can afford to be patient--we don't need to rush anyone. Speaking of that though Andersson (if we're keeping him) needs to get stronger. That was one thing about Filip--he was ready size and strength as a 17 year old.

Spot on with Kravtsov, but I do think that Andersson is pretty decent with his strength. His skating is what needs work so hopefully he's working on it and comes back with a chip on his shoulder (or is traded for the right deal in return).

 

[Joey Bones]

Assuming we pick at 13, and the top 9 (Byfield, Raymond, Rossi, Holtz, Drysdale, Lundell, Perfetti, Lafreniere, Stutzle) are off the board by our picks, I'd love to get some combination of Gunler/Sanderson/Quinn with our first and Mysak/Jarvis with the TOR/CAR pick

Sleeping on Holloway and Mercer, but yeah I think Gunler and a reach on Jarvis is very good there at No. 13. Sanderson is going in the top 10, I can almost guarantee that. Teams were and still are gushing over him.

 

[Joey Bones]

I expect Holloway's name to be the one most frequently listed beside the Rangers in mock drafts leading up the draft.

He's a name I've heard connected to the team, and I know they like him, just not sure if he's necessarily the guy at the top of their list.

Agreed, and I'd be very happy with the selection. He's a better version of Lemieux at worst. I think his potential could be Tom Wilson and hopefully he doesn't get in trouble with the league.

 

[Joey Bones]

For mock drafts? Probably not too much. At least not that I've seen,

Internally, a different matter. They would, in theory, have a good read on him - which can cut both ways for a prospect.

I know they like the wheels, the pursuit, and the North-South game. I think there's the opinion he's a guy who could slide into a number of different roles down the line.

The offensive upside is a bit of a question mark, but he does check off a number of other boxes they've expressed interest in. And if he's the best player on the board at that point, it could be a pretty easy decision for them.

Can second this. Think he'll be a solid NHLer.

 

[UnSandvich]

paywall

Wheeler: Why Jan Mysak is one of the 2020 NHL Draft's top...

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Guys like Wheeler need to stop pumping Mysak up so he's there with our second pick

 

[pblawr]

Quinn and Sanderson would be my top choices at #13, although I think it might be more likely that one of the consensus top guys drops to us, which I'd be happy with too.

Quinn's scored more goals this season than every draft eligible player in the OHL in the last 20 years outside of Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey like 3 years ago. The counterpoints about him being an older player on a very good team are legitimate, but I think he's one of the highest upside players in the draft.

Sanderson strikes me as a more polished version of K'Andre. He's really good at using his reach and skating ability to shut down rushes, create exits and entries, and tilt the ice in his team's favor. I don't think he's a top offensive player, but I think what he does defensively and in terms of driving possession is just as valuable, and he's still got enough offensive skill to contribute too. Imagine how tough it would be to score on us with if we had two McDonagh types on the left side in front of Shesterkin. I think there's truth in the saying that "defense wins championships."

Gunler wouldn't be my top choice, but I wouldn't be upset about him either.

I worry about how bad Zary's transition stats are. If he's that bad in the WHL, he's going to have to improve a lot to be an NHL player.



I'd be ok with Holloway. His point production in the NCAA was pretty bad, but I get more comfortable with it based on the fact that it was good outside of one long 14 game slump and that he scored 9 in his last 10 after being switched to the wing. He strikes me as kind of a "Kreider-lite." Not much playmaking ability, but impressive speed, strength, and work ethic. Still, I wonder if a slower version of Kreider is more than a 3rd line player in the NHL and I'd prefer someone with more skill and upside with a lottery pick.

I'd be ok with Jarvis, Mercer, or potentially Andrae too, especially with the 2nd pick, and I'm pretty intrigued by Lapierre and Perreault or even a Wallinder or Grans as high-risk / high-reward options with the 2nd pick.

My personal hope would probably be Quinn, Sanderson, or one of the consensus top guys at #13 and Gunler, Holloway, Jarvis, Mercer, Andrae, Lapierre, or Perreault at #23.

 

[UnSandvich]

Quinn and Sanderson would be my top choices at #13, although I think it might be more likely that one of the consensus top guys drops to us, which I'd be happy with too.

Quinn's scored more goals this season than every draft eligible player in the OHL in the last 20 years outside of Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey like 3 years ago. The counterpoints about him being an older player on a very good team are legitimate, but I think he's one of the highest upside players in the draft.

Sanderson strikes me as a more polished version of K'Andre. He's really good at using his reach and skating ability to shut down rushes, create exits and entries, and tilt the ice in his team's favor. I don't think he's a top offensive player, but I think what he does defensively and in terms of driving possession is just as valuable, and he's still got enough offensive skill to contribute too. Imagine how tough it would be to score on us with if we had two McDonagh types on the left side in front of Shesterkin. I think there's truth in the saying that "defense wins championships."

Gunler wouldn't be my top choice, but I wouldn't be upset about him either.

I worry about how bad Zary's transition stats are. If he's that bad in the WHL, he's going to have to improve a lot to be an NHL player.



I'd be ok with Holloway. His point production in the NCAA was pretty bad, but I get more comfortable with it based on the fact that it was good outside of one long 14 game slump and that he scored 9 in his last 10 after being switched to the wing. He strikes me as kind of a "Kreider-lite." Not much playmaking ability, but impressive speed, strength, and work ethic. Still, I wonder if a slower version of Kreider is more than a 3rd line player in the NHL and I'd prefer someone with more skill and upside with a lottery pick.

I'd be ok with Jarvis, Mercer, or potentially Andrae too, especially with the 2nd pick, and I'm pretty intrigued by Lapierre and Perreault or even a Wallinder or Grans as high-risk / high-reward options with the 2nd pick.

My personal hope would probably be Quinn, Sanderson, or one of the consensus top guys at #13 and Gunler, Holloway, Jarvis, Mercer, Andrae, Lapierre, or Perreault at #23.

I don't want Lapierre with a 1st. Maybe a 2nd. Those concussions are just way too huge of a red flag for me. Of the 131 games Chicoutimi has played in the last 2 years, Lapierre has played in just 67. 64 games missed due to concussion issues in the past 2 seasons.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I want us to draft Alex Laferriere. Hope he falls to a spot where we can grab him

 

[UnSandvich]

I want us to draft Alex Laferriere. Hope he falls to a spot where we can grab him

Is this an actual player, or are you just making fun of people constantly misspelling players names?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Is this an actual player, or are you just making fun of people constantly misspelling players names?

No, actual player. Plays in the USHL. He shares my birthday so that would be fun haha

 

[Joey Bones]

Quinn and Sanderson would be my top choices at #13, although I think it might be more likely that one of the consensus top guys drops to us, which I'd be happy with too.

Quinn's scored more goals this season than every draft eligible player in the OHL in the last 20 years outside of Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey like 3 years ago. The counterpoints about him being an older player on a very good team are legitimate, but I think he's one of the highest upside players in the draft.

Sanderson strikes me as a more polished version of K'Andre. He's really good at using his reach and skating ability to shut down rushes, create exits and entries, and tilt the ice in his team's favor. I don't think he's a top offensive player, but I think what he does defensively and in terms of driving possession is just as valuable, and he's still got enough offensive skill to contribute too. Imagine how tough it would be to score on us with if we had two McDonagh types on the left side in front of Shesterkin. I think there's truth in the saying that "defense wins championships."

Gunler wouldn't be my top choice, but I wouldn't be upset about him either.

I worry about how bad Zary's transition stats are. If he's that bad in the WHL, he's going to have to improve a lot to be an NHL player.



I'd be ok with Holloway. His point production in the NCAA was pretty bad, but I get more comfortable with it based on the fact that it was good outside of one long 14 game slump and that he scored 9 in his last 10 after being switched to the wing. He strikes me as kind of a "Kreider-lite." Not much playmaking ability, but impressive speed, strength, and work ethic. Still, I wonder if a slower version of Kreider is more than a 3rd line player in the NHL and I'd prefer someone with more skill and upside with a lottery pick.

I'd be ok with Jarvis, Mercer, or potentially Andrae too, especially with the 2nd pick, and I'm pretty intrigued by Lapierre and Perreault or even a Wallinder or Grans as high-risk / high-reward options with the 2nd pick.

My personal hope would probably be Quinn, Sanderson, or one of the consensus top guys at #13 and Gunler, Holloway, Jarvis, Mercer, Andrae, Lapierre, or Perreault at #23.

My two cents....

I think, at this point, it's wishful thinking that Sanderson will be available at No. 13. I've heard that teams are liking him more than Drysdale (which I think is inaccurate as I think Drysdale can be like a Doughty in the NHL). There are also two teams picking in the top 10 that need defensive help (and have two picks each within the top 10) in their pipeline and he just seems like a New Jersey pick to me. I don't see K'Andre in him at all. K'Andre is more offensive minded, IMO. I could see the comparisons to Sanderson to McDonagh, but I see Sanderson more like Trouba; good stick reach, pins the man along the boards and drops him if needed be, good awareness on both sides of the ice. On the negative, both Trouba and Sanderson forget their men at times and would either get lost in the play or take a penalty. Either way, the defensive minded, two-way defender is intriguing. Don't think he'll be there at No. 13.

On Quinn, there are definitely concerns with his play without the puck in transition. It takes a little time for him to realize situations in the neutral zone when he isn't leading with the puck. It does help, though, that when the puck is on his stick he flourishes with it. Scores goals and sets up plays. I wonder if he'll be more of a PP specialist in the NHL. It's too risky, IMO, to take him at No. 13. If he's there with the second 1st rounder I wouldn't mind at all. There's a lot for him to still develop. Hopefully he's not one dimensional.

I think you're underselling Holloway a bit. I don't think he's Kreider-lite, but more like a faster Tom Wilson. He's smart, physical, agitating to play against and has a scoring touch. Granted I do feel he'll take dumb penalties, similarly to Lemieux and aforementioned Wilson, but if he can control his agitating ways, he'll be a lethal key for a cup contending team. That's another thing, he plays like a true center, despite getting more production on the wing. Grinds behind the net and helps out in the corners on both sides of the ice. Nonetheless, whether or not he'll be a center or wing, I think he'll have the best chance to make it in the NHL and is an easy replacement for someone like Howden (who might get taken in the expansion draft). Another note, I'm seeing a trend with the way NYR has been drafting and bringing in players; they all are big, physical and fast. That fits Holloway to a T. I highly expect him to be on NYR's list and could absolutely be taken in at No. 13. Upside is there for a top 6 center.

Gunler has an amazing shot and played in the SHL all year, so pro experience is there more than any of the prospects. He started the year in a learning role, but in the second half of the season he became more of a reliable source for Lulea. He creates ways to get open and rip a shot on net. Not a pass first guy, which most NYR players like to do. He also has a very good forecheck and backcheck which doesn't mean he's lazy. He'll dig to get the puck on his stick. There are some reports about his off-ice antics, but we don't know the inside. I feel that NYR scouting staff would know if there were any toxicity to his personality or whatever the case may be. Anyways, I think he is also a solid option of the Rangers at No. 13. Upside is there for a top 6 winger.

I agree with you on Zary, but there is a lot to like to his game. Stick handling is great and his shot/pass are great, too. He can dig for the puck and create ways to score goals. He seems very complete as a player, but his skating is bad. He doesn't generate much more than his basic stride. He's got to work on his 2nd and 3rd gears. I don't think he makes it otherwise. I wouldn't grab Zary with the first pick, but wouldn't mind the high risk/high reward pick with their second 1st pick.

Out of the others you mentioned, I think Jarvis and Mercer are the only ones worth grabbing at No. 13. Jarvis plays all over the ice and I think he is the faster skater in the draft after Lafreniere. I truly think he'll be an offensive wizard similarly to Marner or Barzal. He digs, too. He'll grind to get the puck on his stick. Mercer is also similar to Jarvis except bigger, more physical and more of a goal scorer. Also, Mercer is definitely a winger in the NHL. I wouldn't touch Lapierre at all in the 1st round. Too many concussions already in his career for someone who still lacks scoring touch and defensive ability. Wallinder also is a all the tools no toolbox kind of player. I like Perreault with their second 1st, but he reminds me of Matt Puempel. All the offensive ability in the world, but n0 defensive awareness. I wouldn't mind the reaches on Andrae or Grans in the second 1st, but I think they'll go in the 2nd round.

 

[Joey Bones]

Is this an actual player, or are you just making fun of people constantly misspelling players names?

No he's an actual player in the USHL. He's not bad, but I would put him in the 3rd round, ATM.

 

[pblawr]

I don't want Lapierre with a 1st. Maybe a 2nd. Those concussions are just way too huge of a red flag for me. Of the 131 games Chicoutimi has played in the last 2 years, Lapierre has played in just 67. 64 games missed due to concussion issues in the past 2 seasons.

They weren't concussions. He had a cervical nerve issue that caused recurring concussion-like symptoms, which has since been diagnosed and gotten better.

The odds of a player drafted in the 20's making it to the NHL is something like 40%. Compared to that, the odds of an injury ruining a player's career are negligible. More than half of the NHL misses time due to injuries every year and 99% of them are fine. McDavid, Crosby, and Zibanejad have all have had more injury issues than Lapierre, but no one would trade them for $0.50 on the dollar because of that.

And if he does stay healthy, Lapierre was a consensus top 10 pick before the draft. Those guys have way better chances of making the NHL with way more upside than the guys who are typically around at #23. The difference between a top 10 pick and a pick in the 20's is dramatically more significant than the difference between a player who's had an injury and a player who hasn't. It's not more risk, it's just a different risk and it comes along with way more upside and seems to me like a very attractive trade off.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Jarvis is <3.

If the Rangers stay where they are and they get him I'd be doing backflips.

 

[UnSandvich]

They weren't concussions. He had a cervical nerve issue that caused recurring concussion-like symptoms, which has since been diagnosed and gotten better.

The odds of a player drafted in the 20's making it to the NHL is something like 40%. Compared to that, the odds of an injury ruining a player's career are negligible. More than half of the NHL misses time due to injuries every year and 99% of them are fine. McDavid, Crosby, and Zibanejad have all have had more injury issues than Lapierre, but no one would trade them for $0.50 on the dollar because of that.

And if he does stay healthy, Lapierre was a consensus top 10 pick before the draft. Those guys have way better chances of making the NHL with way more upside than the guys who are typically around at #23. The difference between a top 10 pick and a pick in the 20's is dramatically more significant than the difference between a player who's had an injury and a player who hasn't. It's not more risk, it's just a different risk and it comes along with way more upside and seems to me like a very attractive trade off.

So, having checked it out, it seems like you are correct about the cervical nerve thing, which (if it's FULLY fixed), definitely changes my mind a bit about him. But concussions aren't like other injuries, and they are way more likely to reoccur than most other hockey injuries. Not to mention the long-term effects

 

[Joey Bones]

Jarvis is <3.

If the Rangers stay where they are and they get him I'd be doing backflips.

Jarvis looks like a very good pickup. Think he's going under the radar quite easily.

 

[pblawr]

My two cents....

I think, at this point, it's wishful thinking that Sanderson will be available at No. 13. I've heard that teams are liking him more than Drysdale (which I think is inaccurate as I think Drysdale can be like a Doughty in the NHL). There are also two teams picking in the top 10 that need defensive help (and have two picks each within the top 10) in their pipeline and he just seems like a New Jersey pick to me. I don't see K'Andre in him at all. K'Andre is more offensive minded, IMO. I could see the comparisons to Sanderson to McDonagh, but I see Sanderson more like Trouba; good stick reach, pins the man along the boards and drops him if needed be, good awareness on both sides of the ice. On the negative, both Trouba and Sanderson forget their men at times and would either get lost in the play or take a penalty. Either way, the defensive minded, two-way defender is intriguing. Don't think he'll be there at No. 13.

On Quinn, there are definitely concerns with his play without the puck in transition. It takes a little time for him to realize situations in the neutral zone when he isn't leading with the puck. It does help, though, that when the puck is on his stick he flourishes with it. Scores goals and sets up plays. I wonder if he'll be more of a PP specialist in the NHL. It's too risky, IMO, to take him at No. 13. If he's there with the second 1st rounder I wouldn't mind at all. There's a lot for him to still develop. Hopefully he's not one dimensional.

I think you're underselling Holloway a bit. I don't think he's Kreider-lite, but more like a faster Tom Wilson. He's smart, physical, agitating to play against and has a scoring touch. Granted I do feel he'll take dumb penalties, similarly to Lemieux and aforementioned Wilson, but if he can control his agitating ways, he'll be a lethal key for a cup contending team. That's another thing, he plays like a true center, despite getting more production on the wing. Grinds behind the net and helps out in the corners on both sides of the ice. Nonetheless, whether or not he'll be a center or wing, I think he'll have the best chance to make it in the NHL and is an easy replacement for someone like Howden (who might get taken in the expansion draft). Another note, I'm seeing a trend with the way NYR has been drafting and bringing in players; they all are big, physical and fast. That fits Holloway to a T. I highly expect him to be on NYR's list and could absolutely be taken in at No. 13. Upside is there for a top 6 center.

Gunler has an amazing shot and played in the SHL all year, so pro experience is there more than any of the prospects. He started the year in a learning role, but in the second half of the season he became more of a reliable source for Lulea. He creates ways to get open and rip a shot on net. Not a pass first guy, which most NYR players like to do. He also has a very good forecheck and backcheck which doesn't mean he's lazy. He'll dig to get the puck on his stick. There are some reports about his off-ice antics, but we don't know the inside. I feel that NYR scouting staff would know if there were any toxicity to his personality or whatever the case may be. Anyways, I think he is also a solid option of the Rangers at No. 13. Upside is there for a top 6 winger.

I agree with you on Zary, but there is a lot to like to his game. Stick handling is great and his shot/pass are great, too. He can dig for the puck and create ways to score goals. He seems very complete as a player, but his skating is bad. He doesn't generate much more than his basic stride. He's got to work on his 2nd and 3rd gears. I don't think he makes it otherwise. I wouldn't grab Zary with the first pick, but wouldn't mind the high risk/high reward pick with their second 1st pick.

Out of the others you mentioned, I think Jarvis and Mercer are the only ones worth grabbing at No. 13. Jarvis plays all over the ice and I think he is the faster skater in the draft after Lafreniere. I truly think he'll be an offensive wizard similarly to Marner or Barzal. He digs, too. He'll grind to get the puck on his stick. Mercer is also similar to Jarvis except bigger, more physical and more of a goal scorer. Also, Mercer is definitely a winger in the NHL. I wouldn't touch Lapierre at all in the 1st round. Too many concussions already in his career for someone who still lacks scoring touch and defensive ability. Wallinder also is a all the tools no toolbox kind of player. I like Perreault with their second 1st, but he reminds me of Matt Puempel. All the offensive ability in the world, but n0 defensive awareness. I wouldn't mind the reaches on Andrae or Grans in the second 1st, but I think they'll go in the 2nd round.

I agree with you that Sanderson probably won't be there at 13 and I think that's likely the case with Quinn too. But if those guys aren't there, someone else has to drop and I'd be happy with that too. We just need Askarov and one unexpected player to get picked before us and it's guaranteed that there will be someone who's really good there.

I think you are overthinking it with Quinn. He scored more goals in his pre-draft season than everyone in the OHL in the last 20 years except for Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, and John Tavares and he only started focusing on hockey 3 years ago. That just strikes me as something that's obviously remarkable and speaks to a pretty incredible level of talent.

He's got the tools to be an elite goal scorer in the NHL - he's got the best shot in the draft, ridiculous hands, speed to blow by guys on the rush, and he can score in the dirty areas. On top of that, he's a two-way player who killed penalties for the top team in the OHL and is effective at winning puck battles and driving play. His game isn't perfect, but neither is anyone else's. I agree with you that he doesn't think the game at an elite level (although he's not terrible) but an elite goal scorer who drives play at both ends of the ice is still a really valuable player. Finally, he's behind on the development curve and has improved his game at a faster rate than basically everyone else in the draft and I think the upside associated with that is really intriguing.

Kreider-lite / faster Tom Wilson is kind of tomato / tomato for me. I'm fine with that kind of player later in the first or after that, but I would prefer someone who has the potential to play a top role with a lottery pick. Howden and Lemieux fall into the same bucket for me too.

For me, the character concerns about Gunler have been thoroughly debunked by @Amazing Kreiderman and @ManUtdTobbe among other guys and I think his production in the SHL, adjusted for his age and ice time, is definitely worthy of a high pick. The one thing that does give me pause with Gunler is that I've seen a few places where his peripheral stats look pretty pedestrian. I don't think he's lazy but I do wonder if he has the skating / athletic ability to play away from the puck at an NHL level.



We're on the same page with Zary. There is a lot to like about him, but the skating / transition game is a big enough hole in his game that I'd prefer someone else with our first pick.

I like the Barzal comp for Jarvis. I don't think Jarvis has as much as skill / creativity as Barzal does, but the way he uses his skating ability and work ethic to drive play is similar. Jarvis's production is obviously off the charts, and it's not like he doesn't have any skill, but from what I've seen, his skill doesn't line up with his production for me and I kind of wonder if a guy who's 5'10" and 170 lbs can drive play in the NHL based on his physical skills. I like his skating / work ethic enough that I'd still bet on him, but he wouldn't be my very top choice with the 13th pick.

I agree about Mercer. I think he's kind of similar to Zary but without as big of a hole in terms of the skating.

I posted about Lapierre above, but I really think the injury risk is worth taking in the 20's. The risk of a player at that point never making the NHL is high enough that I don't think the injury risk really moves the needle that much, especially given how common recoveries from injuries are. Smoking cigarettes is dangerous, but I don't think it would really change the life expectancy of someone who's an assassin. If Lapierre gets healthy, which lets be honest is probably what's going to happen, you're getting a guy who might have been a top 10 pick otherwise. I think the difference between the likelihood of someone like that and the kind of guy who would normally get picked at 23 becoming an impact NHL player is way bigger than the risk associated with an injury and guys with that kind of skill are so important and so tough to find outside the top 10. He might be my top choice with the 2nd pick.

I agree with you about Wallinder being an all tools no tool box kind of player, but his toolbox is f*cking ridiculous and he's one of the youngest players in the draft. I'm not under the illusion that there isn't a lot of risk associated with that kind of player, I'm just inclined to gamble on the guys with really elite upside.

Perreault is similar. His game off the puck might never be good enough for him to play in the NHL. But he could also become one of the best players from the draft.

Yeah, I've seen Andrae / Grans lower in draft lists too, and I'd be ecstatic if we could get them in the 3rd or trade up to take them after 1st. Andrae, in particular. A lot of times though, I think other teams have picked up on the guys you think slipped the cracks too and I probably like Andrae more than a lot of the consensus options who would be there at 23. I saw one report that Andrae had a +11% Corsi Rel in the SHL. The sample size is really small, for sure, but it's tough to imagine an outlier that big with a bad player. Other than the fact that he's 5'9", it seems like he's got everything you could want in a defenseman. He's sound defensively, he's tough physically, he's really smart, he's a really agile, evasive skater, some of the stuff he does with the puck is ridiculous (in the clip below, he takes some Finnish player to summer camp) and he processes the game incredibly well with the puck on his stick, and creates a lot of offense too. And I'm not sure that it really matters that he's 5'9". He probably doesn't have the upside to be a truly elite, #1 defenseman, but he could be a really good player.

 

[bl02]

Seems like most of us would be happy with Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler and possibly Holloway at 13. I know many like Sanderson but I just feel we need to grab more forwards with serious potential.
Unfortunately, it's probably safe to say that one of Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler/Holloway don't fall to 23. Maybe Gunler but doubt it. And I still feel its very difficult to trade up in the first round this year (especially since we don't have any 2nd's).
Maybe we take a stab at a Perrault or if we are lucky a Mysak if he falls past the top 20.

Would you guys label Smilanic or Neighbours as guys worth grabbing at 23?

 

[mas0764]

A lot to unpack here....

For starters, the Sabres won't trade Eichel who is their core/star player and neither will Florida regarding Barkov (they also just signed Denisenko so the Panthers will be scary good at some point). Shipping Buch (a good, solid, top-6 winger who has chemistry with the team), a 1st round pick and TWO of the Rangers TOP 5 prospects is insane to consider for a return that won't guarantee anything other than a quick offensive increase and add cap issues. Not to mention they immediately deplete their defensive prospect line. Absolute no from management.

Next, I do agree that they need to focus on center, but let's not forget the other positions, either. Teams build success through solid depth on all positions. Sure, NYR is golden with their goalie prospects (they will probably draft one this year) and very solid on their defensive prospects, but BPA is always a factor. The focus should be on center and some wings, but if they're in the 3rd round and their next forward is ranked way lower than said goalie or defender, you need to keep stocking the cupboard.

I do feel, though, that most teams picking early on will take a run at defenders with Askarov highly likely going in the top 10. One of those centers or wingers are bound to fall right in the Rangers laps. If they don't, a player like Lundell, Holloway or Jarvis are beauts to pick up with their 1st pick.

I’m just throwing out the names Eichel and Barkov as the type of player I’d be trolling for. Under 25 with 70-80+ point potential, true #1 center type. It might have to be a less obvious target like Zibanejad was obviously, but even he was clearly developing into something decent at least when we traded for him. He was not a reclamation project. Granted these teams are not looking to just move those players, so I’m thinking down the line a little maybe when they communicate that they will not resign with Buffalo or Florida and are looking to test free agency, etc. Those schisms occasionally occur, not that I’m saying it will happen to these players necessarily.

Secondly, it doesn’t have to be that exact package, but I think you are being a little gunshy about what we should be willing to give. We have no more room for upcoming defensive prospects. We have a surplus. If you aren’t rolling them over for other assets, you will lose them to free agency without them ever making your roster.

Why should I be concerned that I overpay? Because I could have included one less asset in a package for Barkov and instead have parlayed that into an extra late first?

If I get my number one center for pieces that don’t have a clear path to my roster, I kinda don’t care about an overpay within reason.

If 28 year old Nash cost a first, a top-4 D prospect in Erixon, and two 40 pointish forwards in Dubinsky and Anisimov, you can bet the #1 center that we should be chasing will need a more enticing package. Hence, a younger, higher upside roster piece (Buch), and two nicer D prospects. I may be overpaying a bit but I don’t think my proposal was an “insane” overpayment.

What do you think is a fair package for a similar target? Perhaps you think that any such deal is just not worth it for the Rangers, but with the surplus in assets they have and decided lack of options at the most important spot in hockey, I can’t agree. This must be addressed more aggressively than just drafting Connor Zary.

 

[Mikos87]

Seems like most of us would be happy with Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler and possibly Holloway at 13. I know many like Sanderson but I just feel we need to grab more forwards with serious potential.
Unfortunately, it's probably safe to say that one of Jarvis/Quinn/Gunler/Holloway don't fall to 23. Maybe Gunler but doubt it. And I still feel its very difficult to trade up in the first round this year (especially since we don't have any 2nd's).
Maybe we take a stab at a Perrault or if we are lucky a Mysak if he falls past the top 20.

Would you guys label Smilanic or Neighbours as guys worth grabbing at 23?

Best value for the Rangers would be to get

13: Quinn/Jarvis
23: Gunler/Neighbours/Peterka/Perrault

Getting two middle six wingers on ELC will help the team during it's contention window. This is why I don't trade picks to move up. I can understand trading a pick for a young roster player, but the Rangers need to get a couple of hits.

From the above, I think a Quinn & Neighbours draft would be hailed as an awesome set of picks in 3 years. Peterka's another one to keep an eye for. Kid's got a couple of NHL traits.