Rumor: 2020-21 Trade Rumours and FA Part VIII: Intra-Playoff Edition?

[redacted]

Not to Larsson… he’s not the right fit. No to Montour… he makes the worst mistakes at the worst times.

 

[Foppa2118]

Defense is the far bigger priority than centers IMO.

Even though Kadri had a subpar season with a bad finish, I have a hard time believing that won't motivate him to have a great season next year. He's still a prideful guy. Add on top that it's his contract year and I think it would be a big mistake to move him, because you'd be giving away a guy that's set up to possibly have a career year.

Newhook and Jost should be serviceable bottom six centers and if they find out they need to upgrade those roles, they're the kind of deadline moves you can make without giving up the farm.

Defense though is where nearly all the game losing mistakes came from. Specifically Nemeth and Graves because they were playing higher in the depth chart than they should, because the Avs needed some bigger defenseman to deal with the Knights forecheck.

Priority number 1 needs to be bringing in a a legit top 4 D man with size that also has the mobility to play Bednar's system better than Graves or Nemeth.

Seth Jones fits that to a tee. Unfortunately they might have to move G to get him. Moving Byram doesn't make any sense. He can do basically everything G does, just with a bit different style, and better defense. They'll also need Byram's cheap ELC the next two years and they can probably bridge him after that, making him very reasonably priced for about 4 years.

Just look at the left side of this shot heat map from the AVS-VGK series. Look at all those goals in front of the net. This is where they needed EJ or another big physical defenseman that's better than Graves/Nemeth and who could make life tougher for the Vegas forwards than Girard, Toews, and Makar did. It was just way too easy for them physically down low all series.

 

[myperbixhurts]

The worst thing the Avs could do is learn all the wrong lessons here. It wasn't the puckmoving defenders who did the most damage to the team--it was the two guys who were supposedly going to stand up to Vegas's forecheck who all but killed them. Just because a guy is big and throws hits doesn't mean he's a good match against a tough, physical team. Nemeth and Graves, for all their vaunted size, couldn't win a puck battle to save their lives and couldn't move it out of the zone effectively, not to mention their brain-dead turnovers. Winning puck battles is a skill--and say what you will about MacDonald but if you watch him this season he was quite adept at it, despite not being a big guy. Timmins was actually much, much better at handling Vegas's forecheck than Graves and Nemeth put together. He got pushed, hit, and run over plenty of times and still got the puck moved in the right direction, and the coaches noticed. He went from virtually no ice time in the first round to 15 minutes a game when all was said and done.

You try to chase "toughness" like some white whale, you end up like Washington, who did considerable damage to their Cup window and were lucky as f*** they won it all before it slammed shut, or Buffalo, who took a good, talented team and completely ruined it for over a decade now. No, if they try and gut what they've got now that will only hurt them.

There IS a lesson to be learned, but I don't it's where you believe it is. Toughness and size IMO are a factor, but it's not the back end that needs it. It's up front. Avs need to get some better depth up front, guys who can put the puck in the net, give teams like Vegas a taste of their own medicine. Jost and Compher, and to a lesser extent, Burakovsky and Kadri, are not good enough behind the top line. They need better than that. And for the love of God, GET SOMEONE WHO CAN WIN A GODDAMNED FACEOFF.

The Avs proved they CAN play their game against Vegas and dominate, much like they did in game 5. There were stretches where Vegas couldn't muster a forecheck and had to settle for sending one guy in because the Avs were controlling the play. They lost game 5 because of stupid mistakes by guys like Nemeth and Graves, not because they couldn't handle the physicality. They absolutely COULD once adjustments were made. I'd say that was also on Bednar for taking too damned long to make those adjustments, and also on Bednar for continuing to put those two yahoos out there. Literally cost them the game.



I don't agree--it wasn't necessarily those guys in the top four who got pinned in their own zone, it was Graves and Nemeth who were out there for most of those debacles. Yes, it happened with Makar, Girard, and Toews as well, but with better puck support from the forwards that shouldn't happen. The coaches just need to make better adjustments and the players, especially the top line guys, just need to play harder and smarter in the defensive zone. AND they need better forwards. Jost was a big-time liability in the postseason, and he was last postseason as well. Compher was much better this time around than he was against Dallas...but he still wasn't anywhere near good enough. Better puck support from the forwards will go a long, long way toward fixing what went wrong in this series.



Really? We didn't get enough of injury-prone defensemen and defensemen who can't skate, we need one who embodies both of those traits?

Graves can't play on the top 4 that's for sure, and it seems like Bednar hasn't learned that lesson. Sakic didn't help the team at the trade deadline, knowing that Byram was injured and probably wouldn't play in the playoffs, he gets Nemeth. Every year you can point at something and say they lost because of that, like last year it was injuries, this year even though there were injuries, Sakic had a chance at upgrading the roster at the deadline which he didn't do. This year's failure is more on Sakic and Bednar.

 

[flyfysher]

Defense is the far bigger priority than centers IMO.

Even though Kadri had a subpar season with a bad finish, I have a hard time believing that won't motivate him to have a great season next year. He's still a prideful guy. Add on top that it's his contract year and I think it would be a big mistake to move him, because you'd be giving away a guy that's set up to possibly have a career year.

Newhook and Jost should be serviceable bottom six centers and if they find out they need to upgrade those roles, they're the kind of deadline moves you can make without giving up the farm.

Defense though is where nearly all the game losing mistakes came from. Specifically Nemeth and Graves because they were playing higher in the depth chart than they should, because the Avs needed some bigger defenseman to deal with the Knights forecheck.

Priority number 1 needs to be bringing in a a legit top 4 D man with size that also has the mobility to play Bednar's system better than Graves or Nemeth.

Seth Jones fits that to a tee. Unfortunately they might have to move G to get him. Moving Byram doesn't make any sense. He can do basically everything G does, just with a bit different style, and better defense. They'll also need Byram's cheap ELC the next two years and they can probably bridge him after that, making him very reasonably priced for about 4 years.

Just look at the left side of this shot heat map from the AVS-VGK series. Look at all those goals in front of the net. This is where they needed EJ or another big physical defenseman that's better than Graves/Nemeth and who could make life tougher for the Vegas forwards than Girard, Toews, and Makar did. It was just way too easy for them physically down low all series.

I'd still be mortified to go into the POs next year with Kadri as the Avs 2C. The best case scenario is he gets moved at the TD. That minimizes the loss in value while also minimizing the risk to the team of having him be suspended in the POs and leaving them shorthanded again.

Graves is definitely not a fit. Lacks hockey IQ. It's either Girard or Byram if the Avs are acquiring Jones.

 

[Foppa2118]

For those worried about Seth Jones corsi numbers, this was clearly an outlier year.

If you track his numbers year by year, they've gotten worse as Columbus has gotten worse. They were good in Nashville and good when CBJ was good, but CBJ has become a worse possession team and a worse team in general the last two years. They also had poor goaltending this year.

He's still been first or second among all regular D men on his team the last 6 years in a row and he's always ahead of his team average. His ups and downs are a byproduct of how good his team is year to year. As you would expect.

NAS 2013-14 - 49.52% - 4th among D men
NAS 2014-15 - 54.08% - 3rd among D men
NAS 2015-16 - 57.92% - 1st among D men
CBJ 2016-17 - 52.51% - 2nd among D men
CBJ 2017-18 - 54.28 - 1st among D men
CBJ 2018-19 - 52.28% - 1st among D men
CBJ 2019-20 - 50.08% - 2nd among D men
CBJ 2020-21 - 48.22% - 2nd among D men

Compare that to how his teams have done with Corsi each year and you can see a correlation.

NAS 2013-14 - 48.44% - 23rd in NHL
NAS 2014-15 - 52.82% - 6th in NHL
NAS 2015-16 - 52.47% - 4th in NHL
CBJ 2016-17 - 50.29% - 14th in NHL
CBJ 2017-28 - 51.49% - 9th in NHL
CBJ 2018-19 - 50.21% - 12th in NHL
CBJ 2019-20 - 49.11% - 20th in NHL
CBJ 2020-21 - 46.51% - 27th in NHL

 

[Balthazar]

Holy shit.

 

[Foppa2118]

Holy shit.

Pretty clear cut story right?

Avs couldn't get to the dirty areas for greasy goals enough, and to an even greater degree, the Avs couldn't defend the front of the net at all from giving up greasy goals.

Makes any necessary changes, whether it's personnel, or more emphasis on strategy (mostly with regard to the O zone) pretty obvious.

 

[duckbear]

The worst thing the Avs could do is learn all the wrong lessons here. It wasn't the puckmoving defenders who did the most damage to the team--it was the two guys who were supposedly going to stand up to Vegas's forecheck who all but killed them. Just because a guy is big and throws hits doesn't mean he's a good match against a tough, physical team. Nemeth and Graves, for all their vaunted size, couldn't win a puck battle to save their lives and couldn't move it out of the zone effectively, not to mention their brain-dead turnovers.

There was more than one problem in the series, but I'm going to argue our back-end was a big one. Nemeth individually was a problem. I don't know anyone who thinks otherwise. Why he kept getting ice time over Byram or even MacDonald is beyond me. Honestly, if he was injured and we rolled 5D we would have been better off. He was really that bad. But outside of that, the next biggest issue on the backend was Girard and the manhandling that Vegas was able to put on him, not Graves. Graves wasn't great, and personally I would move on from him (whether trade of expansion draft), but he didn't stand out like Girard. Girard stood out in a very bad way.

This is two playoffs in a row where our back-end has been exploited in this way and it just can't be left alone. Playoff hockey is like an entirely different sport than the regular season. Last year the Dallas PP specifically, but bigger forwards in general had complete domination in our zone. Girard is amazing in the regular season, and I truly believe he would be amazing in the playoffs too if the whistles didn't disappear, and maybe even if he could be insolated, but our entire competent D is small right now so there is just no way to protect Girard. He didn't individually cost us the series -- I actually think Nemeth did if you go back and look at the goals and when they occurred and how they turned the momentum -- but he was a huge liability. I really would have liked to see if Girard could have picked up his game by playing with Toews, who seems to be the best match for Girard overall but apparently the coach liked the way things were.

This was a year where we could've won the cup and instead we lost 4 in a row to Vegas.

In my opinion, Sakic failed at the deadline. Bednar failed to adjust quick enough, additionally he didn't do anything about the Nemeth/Girard disasters. And the team as a whole lacked composure and lost winnable games, largely through giveaways due to forecheck pressure.

Both the Caps and TB had to get 'playoff tough' before they won. We need to do the same. And no it's not only on the back-end, but that's definitely where it starts.

 

[Avsboy]

There was more than one problem in the series, but I'm going to argue our back-end was a big one. Nemeth individually was a problem. I don't know anyone who thinks otherwise. Why he kept getting ice time over Byram or even MacDonald is beyond me. Honestly, if he was injured and we rolled 5D we would have been better off. He was really that bad. But outside of that, the next biggest issue on the backend was Girard and the manhandling that Vegas was able to put on him, not Graves. Graves wasn't great, and personally I would move on from him (whether trade of expansion draft), but he didn't stand out like Girard. Girard stood out in a very bad way.

Graves cost the team Game 5 singlehandedly. He made a bunch of other mistakes. It's really all three of Graves, Nemeth and Girard. Replace with Byram, Jones, EJ and you have a Cup winning team.

 

[dahrougem2]

Makes the thought of Girard for Jones even more appealing. As good as he is Sammy G will never be able to defend the front of the net.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Makes the thought of Girard for Jones even more appealing. As good as he is Sammy G will never be able to defend the front of the net.

One issue with a G-Jones trade is that CBJ already have Werenski and Gravikov on the left side. Somebody would need to play the right side. G can do that but he is not great at it. With that said G's contract would certainly be one reason CBJ would overlook that issue.

 

[Pokecheque]

A Girard/Jones swap would be the height of idiocy. Even if Jones works out somehow (I don’t think he would BTW) he could still just walk away at season’s end.

 

[Perratrooper]

A Girard/Jones swap would be the height of idiocy. Even if Jones works out somehow (I don’t think he would BTW) he could still just walk away at season’s end.

I think most people are suggesting it in a sign and trade scenario

 

[Pokecheque]

I think most people are suggesting it in a sign and trade scenario

Then it’s even bigger idiocy. You’re taking a cost-controlled asset (who by the way was a WAY better player than Jones this year and last) who's signed through his prime years for a guy about to turn 27 and will be at a much higher cap hit, who then is signed through his declining years. But I think I’ll make this my last remark on this scenario since…it ain’t happening.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

You don’t figure the complete lack of a 2C this year was an issue?

Puck couldn’t even get out of the zone half the games. The f*** a center gonna do?

 

[redacted]

Puck couldn’t even get out of the zone half the games. The f*** a center gonna do?

Be a big part of getting the puck out of the zone… you know since that is a big part of their responsibilities.

 

[Foppa2118]

A Girard/Jones swap would be the height of idiocy. Even if Jones works out somehow (I don’t think he would BTW) he could still just walk away at season’s end.

Jones has already signaled he wants to be traded to Colorado. Which was probably done to signal to them that he would like to re-sign here as well so they can feel comfortable giving up assets for him.

So if they're trading for him they're very likely going to re-sign him and have a pretty good idea of the cost, so they can plan accordingly.

 

[dahrougem2]

Then it’s even bigger idiocy. You’re taking a cost-controlled asset (who by the way was a WAY better player than Jones this year and last) who's signed through his prime years for a guy about to turn 27 and will be at a much higher cap hit, who then is signed through his declining years. But I think I’ll make this my last remark on this scenario since…it ain’t happening.

You've been quite bullish on Jones and the numbers suggest he's had a couple of downward trending seasons (though trending along with his team who he routinely outperforms) but I believe Jones does so many things Girard doesn't that the numbers just won't show us. The most obviously identifiable thing being actually boxing forwards out from the front of the net, which is still relatively important for a defensemen and something Girard simply does not have an ability to do.

 

[Pokecheque]

You've been quite bullish on Jones and the numbers suggest he's had a couple of downward trending seasons (though trending along with his team who he routinely outperforms) but I believe Jones does so many things Girard doesn't that the numbers just won't show us. The most obviously identifiable thing being actually boxing forwards out from the front of the net, which is still relatively important for a defensemen and something Girard simply does not have an ability to do.

I don’t get why you think this net-front thing is so important. Getting Seth Jones is not going to magically fix this perceived issue. And trading a 23-year-old player who’s been trending up for a 27-year-old player who’s been trending WAY down because…you want the crease cleared?

Vegas defends the net front area well because of their system, not necessarily because of their personnel. If you’re wanting more net-front defense then you’re asking for a different system than what the Avs run. This team is built around Makar, Girard, and Toews.

 

[flyfysher]

I don’t get why you think this net-front thing is so important.

Yikes!

 

[Pokecheque]

Yikes!

Well to the point where you’re trading your best all-around defenseman away for it!!!??? For THAT!?

And thank you for editing my quote so it gets taken out of context. I went on to add that swapping out one player for another is not going to make a team’s defense in the slot area magically better. That’s a systemic change you’re talking about.

 

[Pokecheque]

I guess I need more info, when was defense in the slot a huge issue for the third best defensive team in the league? From what I could tell Vegas scored goals from all over the place.

Oh and I’ll refute my earlier point—the Avs DID improve their slot-area defense this year by trading away Nikita Zadorov. But that’s mostly because he might be the worst in the NHL in that department.

 

[flyfysher]

Well to the point where you’re trading your best all-around defenseman away for it!!!??? For THAT!?

And thank you for editing my quote so it gets taken out of context. I went on to add that swapping out one player for another is not going to make a team’s defense in the slot area magically better. That’s a systemic change you’re talking about.

It adds to a D-man’s repertoire. Multi-dimensionality is a strength and an asset. This would be an issue for whoever Girard is facing.

Your remark was over broad and grandstanding. I make no apologies.

 

[Pokecheque]

It adds to a D-man’s repertoire. Multi-dimensionality is a strength and an asset. This would be an issue for whoever Girard is facing.

Your remark was over broad and grandstanding. I make no apologies.

Grandstanding!?

Ooooookay then.

 

[Pokecheque]

Not to Larsson… he’s not the right fit. No to Montour… he makes the worst mistakes at the worst times.

Montour is HORRIBLE. Didn’t realize it until this season, I figured it was the Buffalo Effect but he was plenty bad in Florida too. Just a really dumb hockey player.

Kadri was right about him.