2020/21 Roster Thread IV: A New Hope

[Appleyard]

Flyers have several fantastic forwards at zone entries.



JvR, Lindblom and NAK are the only 3/13 who have played this season who are below average in that area.

Hayes, Voracek and Konecny are high end.
Giroux, Couturier, Raffl and Frost are very good.
Farabee, Raffl and Laughton are above average.

On paper they should be one of the best teams in the league at entering the zone.

Their dump and chase worked well last year. But they were not AS dump heavy. But still one of the few teams who made dumps work for them.

Dumps come from the coaching. It is a set forechecking strategy to get OZ posession...

Plus the transition game from D was better... so they had more speed. And when you have more NZ speed F1 and F2 can get to the puck quicker.

Team Identity: Flyers' 2-1-2 forecheck has opposing teams in shackles

But they are not getting out of the zone as well this year. And that is hamstringing that.

 

[DancingPanther]

1 is fine, sure it could be better.
2 is good, probably the biggest overall improvement since AV took over
3 is a disaster, and it’s not just the Brauns and Haggs that struggle with it
4, they don’t have enough talent to execute, hence the resorting to dump and chase, whether it’s coming from the coaches, or the players themselves know their own limits

They do have enough talent to execute. They did it the whole season before the shutdown last year. They were a great transition team. Then it all changed at the snap of a finger and they haven't returned to the style of play that made them one of the best teams in the league.

 

[deadhead]

When the forwards come back consistently, they're more likely to regain possession in the D-zone and the D-men have someone to pass to, when a forward or two is slow about getting back, they're often outnumbered in the D-zone and the cycle begins.

They are one of the smallest teams in the NHL, but just as bad, most of their big players aren't physical (physical isn't fighting, it's winning puck battles and finishing hits to separate players from the puck and just wearing down opponents by putting a body on them), Myers is one of the few and he's out. AV has been pushing Voracek, JVR, and Hayes to be more physical with some success, but it's not in their DNA. Fortunately, most of the forwards they've drafted are physical for their size, even Brink doesn't shy away from contact, I'm more worried about an undersized defense that can get pinned in their D-zone down the road.

Islanders are a physical forechecking team that punishes you in your D-zone, TB has a big, physical defense that punishes you in their D-zone and in front of their net.

 

[AbsolutelyNot]

Flyers have several fantastic forwards at zone entries.



JvR, Lindblom and NAK are the only 3/13 who have played this season who are below average in that area.

Hayes, Voracek and Konecny are high end.
Giroux, Couturier, Raffl and Frost are very good.
Farabee, Raffl and Laughton are above average.

On paper they should be one of the best teams in the league at entering the zone.

Their dump and chase worked well last year. But they were not AS dump heavy. But still one of the few teams who made dumps work for them.

Dumps come from the coaching. It is a set forechecking strategy to get OZ posession...

Plus the transition game from D was better... so they had more speed. And when you have more NZ speed F1 and F2 can get to the puck quicker.

Team Identity: Flyers' 2-1-2 forecheck has opposing teams in shackles

But they are not getting out of the zone as well this year. And that is hamstringing that.

They’re not getting out of the zone well this year because they aren’t coming away with the puck cleanly enough. Part of that is because you have Dmen with limited puck moving ability, another part of it is because this team struggles winning wall battles. They get hemmed in. The Islanders, and to a lesser degree Canadiens, exposed this during the playoffs last year. Like I’m not trying to be a dick, but the advanced numbers aren’t going to tell the entire story. They’re just not. I’m not here to shit on analytics, but for God’s sake just watch what’s in front of you. Go back and watch both playoff series from last year, and the first Buffalo game. And please spare me with the Frost stuff. The guy clearly has skill but the skill is no good when the puck isn’t on his stick.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It's entirely possible that some of the Exit issues are due to board play. How much is up for debate. Every time I've seen them tracked and measured up, they end up like Faceoffs in that they have large impacts for small amounts of time (~10-15 seconds for FOs), then trail off to negligence as they even out. My best guess to that theory would be that board play is significantly more likely to lose a shift than a game and to lose a game than a season.

I completely agree Exits are an abject disaster. It's strongly suboptimal to completely punt 2 of your 6 defensive slots there, but Exits have always been my main criticism of NHL Sanheim and Myers is only ok there as well. Gustafsson is better at Entries than Exits, which is pretty much the opposite of what they needed to add. Provy is usually pretty good, but hasn't been. That's one place they miss Gostisbehere tremendously.

It would be extremely helpful if the Phantoms' philosophy on Exits allowed for better skill development. That entire franchise is an inexcusable mess.

 

[AbsolutelyNot]

They do have enough talent to execute. They did it the whole season before the shutdown last year. They were a great transition team. Then it all changed at the snap of a finger and they haven't returned to the style of play that made them one of the best teams in the league.

So you think they just collectively woke up one morning and decided to abandon a style of play that made them successful during the regular season? No. Their style changed because the opposition in the playoffs forced it to change. I don’t care about numbers over the course of 82 games. Playoff hockey is essentially a different sport. Montreal ans the Islanders took away what the Flyers did best and the Flyers had no answer for it. They were able to get by a lesser opponent like Montreal, but the Islanders dictated the play for most of that series. The Flyers were fortunate to even play in a Game 7,

 

[rinaldo]

Even if it's only 6 weeks for Myers, Fletcher will still have to trade for a defenseman.
The setup of the D is the glaring weakness of this roster. You can't survive with only 4 competent defensemen, especially not in a compressed schedule Covid lingering season and that was before the injuries started.

flyers dont even have 4, they have 3.

 

[Appleyard]

When the forwards come back consistently, they're more likely to regain possession in the D-zone and the D-men have someone to pass to, when a forward or two is slow about getting back, they're often outnumbered in the D-zone and the cycle begins.

They are one of the smallest teams in the NHL, but just as bad, most of their big players aren't physical (physical isn't fighting, it's winning puck battles and finishing hits to separate players from the puck and just wearing down opponents by putting a body on them), Myers is one of the few and he's out. AV has been pushing Voracek, JVR, and Hayes to be more physical with some success, but it's not in their DNA. Fortunately, most of the forwards they've drafted are physical for their size, even Brink doesn't shy away from contact, I'm more worried about an undersized defense that can get pinned in their D-zone down the road.

Islanders are a physical forechecking team that punishes you in your D-zone, TB has a big, physical defense that punishes you in their D-zone and in front of their net.

They do come back regularly. They are regaining possession fine in DZ. But then failing to exit.

The issue is a combo of fleeing the zone early when possession is regained, alongside a lack of quick passing from the DZ. The gap between fwds and Dmen is too big in general. And then several Dmen have just been incapable of making simple passes. It has already led to like ~4 goals against. Awful passes when had easy outlets.

Flyers are an average-ish team size wise.

Height: 0.5cm above average.
Weight: 3lbs below average.

If everyone on the team drinks a litre of water before a game then they will be above average weight wise and ofc then be better...

The last few years they have been a very good cycle team because they have so many forwards who are good on the boards...

 

[TB87]

The players are definitely doing whatever they want (as a collective). Totally not a coaching strategy...

 

[DancingPanther]

They’re being told that? You’re in the locker room and in team meetings? Interesting, didn’t know we had a member of the organization here on the boards. Anyway, let’s assume, for the sake of this discussion, that you’re right, and they are being told that. Want to take a guess as to why? Which forwards have shown the ability to successfully gain the offense zone with speed and full control of the puck and do so on a consistent basis? Hayes? Probably the best example with the way he used his body to shield the puck, but he’s not blowing anyone away with speed. Voracek? Has the ability, doesn’t do it nearly enough. Giroux? Yeah, maybe prime Giroux, but the not current version. JVR? Lol. The closest thing is probably Konecny, and sometimes his hands are too fast for his brain and he is erratic with the puck on his stick (Islanders really took advantage of this in the playoffs). This team is coached as best as they can to their strengths. They do have some straight line speed up front, which would be my guess as to why they dump and chase, as they maybe figure they can win foot races to pucks in the corners/behind the net. But once they’re met there by the opposing Dmen, it’s usually 1-2 quick passes and an easy breakout for the opposition. Carry the puck in with this group, they’re often knocked off the puck on the half wall and it’s going the other way.

Frost, Giroux, Hayes, Lindblom, Konecny, Raffl, JVR, and Jake to name a few.

Carrying the puck in doesn't often result in the team getting knocked off the puck, it resulted in smothering wins from November to March last year. They were literally a top 5 team in the NHL.

This is why I strongly encourage you to take down your own data and analyze them critically- the results may surprise you. How many times does the defense use physicality to guard the blue line and stop a Flyer rush? How many times do the Flyers dump the puck in? How many times to they successfully gain the offensive zone with possession? I plan on doing it tonight. We'll reconvene.

But believe me, from someone who actively looks for these things every game and actually tracks them, your reasoning is not grounded in reality.

And yeah, they are being told this, because the coach's system has spanned season on season across 2 teams prior to the Flyers, and now 3.

 

[Appleyard]

They’re not getting out of the zone well this year because they aren’t coming away with the puck cleanly enough. Part of that is because you have Dmen with limited puck moving ability, another part of it is because this team struggles winning wall battles. They get hemmed in. The Islanders, and to a lesser degree Canadiens, exposed this during the playoffs last year. Like I’m not trying to be a dick, but the advanced numbers aren’t going to tell the entire story. They’re just not. I’m not here to shit on analytics, but for God’s sake just watch what’s in front of you. Go back and watch both playoff series from last year, and the first Buffalo game. And please spare me with the Frost stuff. The guy clearly has skill but the skill is no good when the puck isn’t on his stick.

Yeh, Hagg and Braun cant move a puck at all.
Myers is mediocre at it.
Gustafsson is fine over his career... but has been awful.


They got exposed last playoffs because they got away from what they did well in the regular season and tried to be more defensive, less aggressive on forecheck. They played right into Canadiens and Isles hands by playing "their" game. And it was a purposeful shift.


I watch every Flyers game and probably 100 non-Flyers games a year.

It is blindly obvious that the gap between Dmen and fwds is too big. That they are trying too many banks and 70ft outlets instead of crisp passing. And that they are dumping too much in the OZ without F1 and F2 speed. Which partially comes from out-letting.

Frost was poor on D in NHL last year. No argument. But in CHL and AHL he was a very good 2-way player. One of best PKers in junior hockey and a good defensive player. He has the instincts... but will need time vs bigger, stronger players in DZ. Not everyone can be Couturier off the bat.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Frost, Giroux, Hayes, Lindblom, Konecny, Raffl, JVR, and Jake to name a few.

Carrying the puck in doesn't often result in the team getting knocked off the puck, it resulted in smothering wins from November to March last year. They were literally a top 5 team in the NHL.

This is why I strongly encourage you to take down your own data and analyze them critically- the results may surprise you. How many times does the defense use physicality to guard the blue line and stop a Flyer rush? How many times do the Flyers dump the puck in? How many times to they successfully gain the offensive zone with possession? I plan on doing it tonight. We'll reconvene.

But believe me, from someone who actively looks for these things every game and actually tracks them, your reasoning is not grounded in reality.

And yeah, they are being told this, because the coach's system has spanned season on season across 2 teams prior to the Flyers, and now 3.

Weren't the Flyers still a dump heavy team last year? At least relative to other teams?

 

[Appleyard]

Weren't the Flyers still a dump heavy team last year? At least relative to other teams?

Yeh. But they did make it work.

That came from a good transition with crisp NZ passing and puck support. As to have a good forecheck for dumping need F1 and F2.

They exited the zone with possession at an above NHL average level.

But only: Hurricanes, Islanders, Wild, Ducks. Dumped the puck more than them.

But they recovered pucks at a very high rate. I think because of the better NZ speed.

 

[AbsolutelyNot]

Yeh, Hagg and Braun cant move a puck at all.
Myers is mediocre at it.
Gustafsson is fine over his career... but has been awful.


They got exposed last playoffs because they got away from what they did well in the regular season and tried to be more defensive, less aggressive on forecheck. They played right into Canadiens and Isles hands by playing "their" game. And it was a purposeful shift.


I watch every Flyers game and probably 100 non-Flyers games a year.

It is blindly obvious that the gap between Dmen and fwds is too big. That they are trying too many banks and 70ft outlets instead of crisp passing. And that they are dumping too much in the OZ without F1 and F2 speed. Which partially comes from out-letting.

Frost was poor on D in NHL last year. No argument. But in CHL and AHL he was a very good 2-way player. One of best PKers in junior hockey and a good defensive player. He has the instincts... but will need time vs bigger, stronger players in DZ. Not everyone can be Couturier off the bat.

They got away from what they did well come playoff time because they were forced into it. MTL and NYI dictated the pace and forced the Flyers to play their games. I will agree that the gapping between the D and forwards are way too big, which was the primary cause for the high volume of turnovers and icings. That should be an easy fix though. As far as zone entries, I still maintain with the roster constructed as is, their best chance of attack is to use their North-South speed and retrieve dump ins, and use whatever speed they have left to establish a cycle and outskate opposing Dmen. Once they engage with Dmen, especially bigger ones, behind the net and in the corners, it’s often an easy seperation from the puck and it’s out of the zone

 

[Appleyard]

Their split 2-1-2 forecheck restricts carrying the puck into the zone as collateral due to its design.

So you HAVE to have NZ speed and at least decent outletting or it all falls apart.

And if it falls apart in terms of recoveries?

Well you are also not often in a position to enter with possession due to how F1 and F2 are thinking and their positions. They are not "looking" to support NZ play past the red-line... they are trying to bomb to the end-boards without going offside.

That is drilled. It IS the whole system.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeh. But they did make it work.

That came from a good transition with crisp NZ passing and puck support. As to have a good forecheck for dumping.

They exited the zone with possession at an above NHL average level.

But only: Hurricanes, Islanders, Wild, Ducks. Dumped the puck more than them.

But they recovered pucks at a very high rate. I think because of the better NZ speed.

I'm glad someone else brought this up. We use this blanket term of "analytics" in horrendous ways. Carolina is one of the strongest dump-leaning teams in the league. The teams that use analytics well are looking to find edges in every nook and cranny. There is no right and wrong way, only degrees of effectiveness.

 

[DancingPanther]

Weren't the Flyers still a dump heavy team last year? At least relative to other teams?

Like Appleyard said, the better overall puck support led to more "higher percentage" dumps (rushing the zone with speed and organization) but also more effective NZ play in general, leading to more entries with possession. Right now, they're 1 dimensional. I beat the transition drum until my sticks break, but I suppose I'll use this time to go on record as saying I get that it's not feasible to "never" dump the puck in. My expectation and hope is they clean it up in the NZ and on the breakout by supporting the puck, enabling them to make more possession entries. 5 in a period will not cut it in the long run.

Dumping should be reserved as the last option, in other words. Right now, it's the first- a self fulfilling prophecy stemming from poor puck support

 

[AbsolutelyNot]

Frost, Giroux, Hayes, Lindblom, Konecny, Raffl, JVR, and Jake to name a few.

Carrying the puck in doesn't often result in the team getting knocked off the puck, it resulted in smothering wins from November to March last year. They were literally a top 5 team in the NHL.

This is why I strongly encourage you to take down your own data and analyze them critically- the results may surprise you. How many times does the defense use physicality to guard the blue line and stop a Flyer rush? How many times do the Flyers dump the puck in? How many times to they successfully gain the offensive zone with possession? I plan on doing it tonight. We'll reconvene.

But believe me, from someone who actively looks for these things every game and actually tracks them, your reasoning is not grounded in reality.

And yeah, they are being told this, because the coach's system has spanned season on season across 2 teams prior to the Flyers, and now 3.

Never tracked before but I’ll gladly do it tonight. I’ll also do my best to track board battles and who came away with the puck more often, specifically with the forwards, with an emphasis on O zone and neutral zone.

 

[DancingPanther]

It's entirely possible that some of the Exit issues are due to board play. How much is up for debate. Every time I've seen them tracked and measured up, they end up like Faceoffs in that they have large impacts for small amounts of time (~10-15 seconds for FOs), then trail off to negligence as they even out. My best guess to that theory would be that board play is significantly more likely to lose a shift than a game and to lose a game than a season.

I completely agree Exits are an abject disaster. It's strongly suboptimal to completely punt 2 of your 6 defensive slots there, but Exits have always been my main criticism of NHL Sanheim and Myers is only ok there as well. Gustafsson is better at Entries than Exits, which is pretty much the opposite of what they needed to add. Provy is usually pretty good, but hasn't been. That's one place they miss Gostisbehere tremendously.

It would be extremely helpful if the Phantoms' philosophy on Exits allowed for better skill development. That entire franchise is an inexcusable mess.

Not unlike the Cats

 

[Appleyard]

I'm glad someone else brought this up. We use this blanket term of "analytics" in horrendous ways. Carolina is one of the strongest dump-leaning teams in the league. The teams that use analytics well are looking to find edges in every nook and cranny. There is no right and wrong way, only degrees of effectiveness.

As Flyers and Canes showed last year...

it can really work.

BUT it is a strategy that relies on great execution from own blue-line out. There are a lot of things that need to line up for it to work.

And right now none of them are.

Mainly as the first step to success in terms of outletting for NZ speed is very poor.
The opposition are all set up as Flyers usually spend 10-15 seconds in DZ before effecting an exit.
So the opposition can get all five skaters into the NZ and disrupt lanes.
So NZ speed is harder to come by.
So F1 and F2 never have real speed... but are still by design slightly isolated.
So dumps are not working as well as harder to get to pucks first or a close second.
And the NZ puck support is worse for carries... as F1 and F2 are wide and trying to generate speed to beat Dmen to get to dumps if they happen.

Which is why the Flyers have had so much of their success this year on the rush. They are talented. But they have rarely been able to get the cycle going. When they have had 3v3 or 4v4 in NZ... they virtually always make a chance be it carrying due to broken play or opposition break-down, or a quick dump where can get F1 and F2 in hard with pressure to get a puck and feed it back towards slot.

 

[AbsolutelyNot]

Also I don’t think you’ll ever see anyone who watches hockey, no matter how they watch it (analytical vs eye test) that would argue that puck support isn’t important.

 

[Starat327]

Winning 50/50 battles is great, but you know whats better? Maintaining possession and never putting yourself into a position where you have to win board battles, or at the very least, you severely marginalize their impact - which is already extremely minimal anyway.

You know what makes it so you dont have to win board battles? Controlled Entries.
You know what makes it hard to win board battles? Dump and chase with no support.

 

[DancingPanther]

As Flyers and Canes showed last year...

it can really work.

BUT it is a strategy that relies on great execution from own blue-line out. There are a lot of things that need to line up for it to work.

And right now none of them are.

Mainly as the first step to success in terms of outletting for NZ speed is very poor.
The opposition are all set up as Flyers usually spend 10-15 seconds in DZ before effecting an exit.
So the opposition can get all five skaters into the NZ and disrupt lanes.
So NZ speed is harder to come by.
So F1 and F2 never have real speed... but are still by design slightly isolated.
So dumps are not working as well as harder to get to pucks first or a close second.
And the NZ puck support is worse for carries... as F1 and F2 are wide and trying to generate speed to beat Dmen to get to dumps if they happen.

Which is why the Flyers have had so much of their success this year on the rush. They are talented. But they have rarely been able to get the cycle going. When they have had 3v3 or 4v4 in NZ... they virtually always make a chance be it carrying due to broken play or opposition break-down, or a quick dump where can get F1 and F2 in hard with pressure to get a puck and feed it back towards slot.

To put it another way, forwards yeeting to the NZ eliminates all options. It's kind of like lining up in the gun with 5 wide- you can eliminate the handoff possibility.

The Flyers' dog shit puck support in the DZ and NZ mitigates their threat of possession. It's so much easier to defend the 55 foot pass.

 

[VladDrag]

Yeh. But they did make it work.

That came from a good transition with crisp NZ passing and puck support. As to have a good forecheck for dumping need F1 and F2.

They exited the zone with possession at an above NHL average level.

But only: Hurricanes, Islanders, Wild, Ducks. Dumped the puck more than them.

But they recovered pucks at a very high rate. I think because of the better NZ speed.

That's 100% the reason. When you don't have speed thru the NZ, you can't get in on the forecheck.

Dump-in's only work when the forecheckers are given an advantage to get the puck. Getting to the redline and wildly firing one into the zone does not provide forechecker the time to be successful. The opposition D needs to be engaged on the puck carrier, and has to be forced to turn around as late as possible - In other words, the appearance of a threat thru the NZ needs to perceived by the opposition D. You also need to have your off-puck forechecker(s) knowing where the dump is going to go.

 

[deadhead]

They skated better once AV got them into his shape by mid-season, the four months off took away that edge. AV uses shorter shifts and rotates four lines more to keep his forwards fresh, which is one reason the dump and chase worked better before the bubble, and should work better once they get their legs (1 week TC isn't long enough, even 1 month wasn't last year).

The forwards are inconsistent getting back, they were much better the last game which is why they looked better, and Appleyard is right that they often leave too quick, and that leads to stretch passes which are hard for good passers, much less Braun or Hagg.

Though the worst problem is Gus, he has been a bad turnover machine in the D-zone. Provorov also seemed totally brain dead the first couple games, giving the puck away, though he snapped out of it. Hagg and Braun are limited, but most teams have 2 or 3 D-men who aren't great passers, you compensate for their limitations.

I think one reason Hagg was icing the puck is he was told to do so if there wasn't a clear pass to be made, don't hold the puck and get stripped looking for someone to pass to - just get it out of the D-zone. Teammates should know when Hagg or Braun are on the ice they should come back and provide an easy outlet pass for them. Don't leave them hung out to dry.

A lot of this is just "pre-season," made worse by a COVID off-season which probably made it harder for many players to find an ice surface to skate on every day and maintain their conditioning and leg strength. Even when you have access to a rink, COVID rules limited the number of people who could be on the surface (and probably the facilities). And then you don't get to practice with new lines/pairs in camp or play with them in exhibition games, I've noticed our opponents looked pretty sloppy as well.