Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[Todd1a]

You're assuming that Stammer is not untouchable for real. So, you're assuming Friedman is right.
I'm saying the opposite. I'm saying it's just a noise...

indeed did they get that from brisebois ? Or is it speculation?

 

[Byrddog]

Cool, you've never provided one good idea to helping the team, and thankfully, the team has never followed your line of thinking. Keeping Johnson and Killorn at the expense of Cirelli and Sergachev is quite possibly the most detrimental thing to the long-term success of this team possible. Killorn would be nice to keep, and there is a scenario where if Brisebois could move Johnson, Paquette and Coburn it might work. More than likely though Brisebois pays the price for Johnson and gets what he can for Killorn after the likes of Hoffman and Dadonov make up their minds, then re-signs the 3 rfa's and hopefully Rutta. Only a GM no longer interested in winning Cups/keeping the team strong would push for keeping Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn while taking scratch off tickets for players like Sergachev and Cirelli in the hopes that in 3 years when the window is much shorter maybe 1 or 2 of them pay off. Again, so very thankful you have nothing to do with the Lightning's management as then they'd have no Cups and be well on their way to having a lottery pick.

Detrimental or not trading both Johnson and Killorn both will not ensure that all three RFA's can be signed and retained past a two year bridge. Now if they will all accept 3 mil then its doable but it only kicks the can down the road for there being moved. If the three have the potentuial to make up the scoring lost 14 goals from Johnson and 26 from Killorn then good I will buy it but thinking that Cirelli, Sergi and Chernak can increase there combined 31 goals from last year to 71 goals is not a reasonable scenario. This would require Cirelli to have 30g Sergi 25 and Chernak 15 just to break even. And if anyone does not think this is a consideration that JBB has to face then your not being honest in your thinking.

 

[Byrddog]

No need, Palat comes off the books when its time Point needs a raise. He's covered

Then will Point Sergi, Cirelli, Chernak all of which will be due after there bridges probably the same year can Plaat falling off cover that ohh and you need to replace Palat on the roster as well. It does not work. Not to mention right now one of Killorn or Johnsons roster spots have to be covered as well at least Foote will need to be brought in as a warm body on D as well if the forward position is a ELC then your talking minimum 1.8 mil for those two ELC's for next year.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Yes, I know, you're right. He's the best source.
But considering also that the best soccer sources in the world (not only in Italy) missed the biggest trade of the last 5-6 years (Ronaldo to Juventus), I'm far from sure that the insiders are ALWAYS right.

This is a different case. If they say it, it is because there's smoke. Doesn't mean he's being traded, but JBB probably listens if a good offer comes his way.

I also don't think Stammer would get full value anyways with the injury concerns.

My guess is JBB waitinh until Hoffman/Dadonov sign

 

[HoseEmDown]

Then will Point Sergi, Cirelli, Chernak all of which will be due after there bridges probably the same year can Plaat falling off cover that ohh and you need to replace Palat on the roster as well. It does not work. Not to mention right now one of Killorn or Johnsons roster spots have to be covered as well at least Foote will need to be brought in as a warm body on D as well if the forward position is a ELC then your talking minimum 1.8 mil for those two ELC's for next year.

Point will get a raise but he's already making 6.5M, I don't see him getting more than Kucherov even though he's signing several years after that deal. He doesn't have Kucherovs numbers and it's a flat cap world. We don't even know what Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak are getting now so we don't know how much we need for their raises just yet. With 15M off the books with Palat, Johnson and Killorn that should cover the raises. We have decent prospects who can be 2nd and 3rd liners with Barre-Boulet a potential 1st liner. We probably won't be able to replace all of what Palat and Killorn bring but we will have cheaper options that way we can afford the better players. If we sign Cirelli to a 1 cheap 1 year deal, then a 3 year deal which would take him to UFA that's the same summer Stamkos is off the books so we can resign him long term from there. We have money coming off it just isn't enough this summer with the flat cap which is the issue.

 

[The Gongshow]

Then will Point Sergi, Cirelli, Chernak all of which will be due after there bridges probably the same year can Plaat falling off cover that ohh and you need to replace Palat on the roster as well. It does not work. Not to mention right now one of Killorn or Johnsons roster spots have to be covered as well at least Foote will need to be brought in as a warm body on D as well if the forward position is a ELC then your talking minimum 1.8 mil for those two ELC's for next year.

Palats 5mil will cover point. Point makes what 6.6? He'll get 8-9.5

Cernak, corelli and Serg will get 3 year deals (based off past bridge deals to tyjo, palat, kuch, vasi and point). I could see Cernak being a 2 year so we wont have all 4 needing contracts at the same time

Palat will 32 by then so they will mostly likely be trying to find a replacement anyways. The team has no cap space and wont for a while so kids are gonna fill the wholes anyways. Get used to it.

Palat could resign but Point takes top priority over everyone. McDonagh might be shopped by then as well, but Point is covered should they be absolutely stuck which is the main thing.

Who do you think is replacing the Johnson and or Killorn spots? The same thing will replace Palat (should he not be resigned for a team friendly deal)

 

[BeingTheThunder]

I just want them to do something... for the NHL club sooooon....

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Nice strawman. Who is saying that Serg will get $6.5m?

He can get a hell of a lot less than that, and we'd still struggle to fit those 3 in under $9m. Heck, let's say Serg gets $5.5m, how are we going to get Cirelli and Cernak for $3.5m?

I mean, it's _possible_ we can get them all for $9m, but that's certainly not the "top-end" estimate -- it's very low-end. It probably involves one of them giving us a sizable discount in expectation of a big payday, e.g. Cirelli taking $3m for 1 year and he cashes in next year.

And even keeping it to $9m doesn't do us much good. We likely have to move Killer and TJ to get that much free space.

What strawman? I've seen plenty of people on this forum (I know, I know) saying their team should sign Sergachev to a $6.5 Million Offer sheet... people trying to figure out what he's going to be paid and it's varied widely but has been largely unrealistic. Neither one of these guys is even close to Brayden Point territory and will be getting considerably less than he did on his bridge deal.

I'll be shocked if any one of Sergachev, Cirelli, or Cernak gets a penny more than $3.5 Million AAV.

Sergachev is DEFINITELY NOT getting $5.5 Million AAV.

I never said the Bolts aren't going to have a hard time having the $9 million available to sign them but only that I couldn't see them costing more than that.

 

[JTBF81]

Detrimental or not trading both Johnson and Killorn both will not ensure that all three RFA's can be signed and retained past a two year bridge. Now if they will all accept 3 mil then its doable but it only kicks the can down the road for there being moved. If the three have the potentuial to make up the scoring lost 14 goals from Johnson and 26 from Killorn then good I will buy it but thinking that Cirelli, Sergi and Chernak can increase there combined 31 goals from last year to 71 goals is not a reasonable scenario. This would require Cirelli to have 30g Sergi 25 and Chernak 15 just to break even. And if anyone does not think this is a consideration that JBB has to face then your not being honest in your thinking.

Except they don't have to increase to anywhere near that??? The replacements for Johnson and Killorn, most likely Barre-Boulet and Volkov, will also be contributing. Killorn has never had the kind of scoring pace/production before this past season, so while he could certainly replicate it, him going back to a .5 ppg, 40 point type player is just, if not more likely. Yzerman and Brisebois set up the contracts well to where the ntcs become staggered over the next 3 years, and had already been mentioned, the raises for Point and the 3 rfas are primarily covered with the moving of Johnson, Killorn and one of Palat/Gourde in the next 2-3 years. McD is also an option perhaps if he's willing to waive or if he goes in the expansion draft, depending on JBB's plans. The Lightning will either need to trade for/sign 1 or 2 more low cost depth guys, or more than likely, put the excellent scouting/drafting to more good use and have a couple of the Syracuse players make the jump in the next couple of years. The roster will look different, but losing two players in Serg and Cirelli who have arguably, a decade or more of high level play left, in order to keep 2 30+ middle 6 types is just not sound strategy.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

What strawman? I've seen plenty of people on this forum (I know, I know) saying their team should sign Sergachev to a $6.5 Million Offer sheet... people trying to figure out what he's going to be paid and it's varied widely but has been largely unrealistic. Neither one of these guys is even close to Brayden Point territory and will be getting considerably less than he did on his bridge deal.

I'll be shocked if any one of Sergachev, Cirelli, or Cernak gets a penny more than $3.5 Million AAV.

Sergachev is DEFINITELY NOT getting $5.5 Million AAV.

I never said the Bolts aren't going to have a hard time having the $9 million available to sign them but only that I couldn't see them costing more than that.

The strawman is the argument that anyone here thinks we'd sign him for $6.5m, and that that level of generosity is what's going to make it tough to sign all three. We can sign him for less than that and still have zero chance of signing the group for $9m -- that's what my $5.5m example illustrated.

We'll be doing well to get Serg and Cirelli for, say, $8m. Without accounting for Cernak. To say that $9m is a "top-end" estimate for all three is just silly. I'm repeating myself here, but I'll say it again: $9m isn't impossible but certainly isn't the top-end estimate for those 3.

 

[Peacefool]

This is a different case. If they say it, it is because there's smoke. Doesn't mean he's being traded, but JBB probably listens if a good offer comes his way.

I also don't think Stammer would get full value anyways with the injury concerns.

My guess is JBB waitinh until Hoffman/Dadonov sign

When do this 2 sign? When they will available to sign?

 

[BeingTheThunder]

The strawman is the argument that anyone here thinks we'd sign him for $6.5m, and that that level of generosity is what's going to make it tough to sign all three. We can sign him for less than that and still have zero chance of signing the group for $9m -- that's what my $5.5m example illustrated.

We'll be doing well to get Serg and Cirelli for, say, $8m. Without accounting for Cernak. To say that $9m is a "top-end" estimate for all three is just silly. I'm repeating myself here, but I'll say it again: $9m isn't impossible but certainly isn't the top-end estimate for those 3.

We'll see. Again, it'll be a surprise to me if any one of the three signs for more than $3.5 million but we shall see.

 

[Fabiobest]

indeed did they get that from brisebois ? Or is it speculation?

Friedman said that the organization wants to keep the secret...
And so, if JBB wants to keep the secret...let me say that the last people JBB talk with would be the reporters...

So, imho, we're talking about their thoughts. Only noise. No news.

 

[Felonious Python]

Friedman said that the organization wants to keep the secret...
And so, if JBB wants to keep the secret...let me say that the last people JBB talk with would be the reporters...

So, imho, we're talking about their thoughts. Only noise. No news.

I saw blue vent.

 

[Steazy Doo]

me no wanty tradey stamkos

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Trading Stamkos without removing TyJo and Killorn at all costs (picks, prospects, buyouts, executions, etc) would be such a baffling move by the franchise.

 

[Fabiobest]

I saw blue vent.

Probably you saw also many english mistakes in my post xD xD xD xD xD

 

[The Gongshow]

Trading Stamkos without removing TyJo and Killorn at all costs (picks, prospects, buyouts, executions, etc) would be such a baffling move by the franchise.

I'd be legit rattled and confused

 

[8999]

Just looking at the big pieces...

Vasilevskiy's 6m raise means TB currently has less than 3m to fill 5 roster spots.

Even if the 3 RFAs can eventually be signed for a combined 15m AAV 3 years from now, basically all of Killorn/Johnson/Palat/Gourde need to be moved by then. This doesn't even factor in Point's raise and assumes Coleman and Goodrow walk in UFA (or get virtually no raises to stay).

It will probably be Point/Kucherov/Cirelli/Stamkos + a bunch of players making less than 1-2m each for the forward group for at least one season. It's still a group that could contend for a cup but it's not surprising that JBB might want to have cap room to add roster depth.

The only non-untouchable players left to free up significant cap space at that point would be Stamkos and McDonagh.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Just looking at the big pieces...

Vasilevskiy's 6m raise means TB currently has less than 3m to fill 5 roster spots.

Even if the 3 RFAs can eventually be signed for a combined 15m AAV 3 years from now, basically all of Killorn/Johnson/Palat/Gourde need to be moved by then. This doesn't even factor in Point's raise and assumes Coleman and Goodrow walk in UFA (or get virtually no raises to stay).

It will probably be Point/Kucherov/Cirelli/Stamkos + a bunch of players making less than 1-2m each for the forward group for at least one season. It's still a group that could contend for a cup but it's not surprising that JBB might want to have cap room to add roster depth.

The only non-untouchable players left to free up significant cap space at that point would be Stamkos and McDonagh.

Well in 3 offseasons from now Palat will have been a UFA already, Killorn becomes a UFA, Johnson has one year left and his NTC will have been modified for two years and Gourde has two years left with a modified NTC. There will also be an expansion draft in that time. So it's highly likely that at least two of not all could be gone by then so we could pay these 3 RFA's. Why is Stamkos on your keep list? He is oft injured, makes a lot and has just 4 years left on his deal. I would look to move him every offseason till he's a UFA unless we can get Johnson and Killorn off cheaply.

 

[8999]

Well in 3 offseasons from now Palat will have been a UFA already, Killorn becomes a UFA, Johnson has one year left and his NTC will have been modified for two years and Gourde has two years left with a modified NTC. There will also be an expansion draft in that time. So it's highly likely that at least two of not all could be gone by then so we could pay these 3 RFA's. Why is Stamkos on your keep list? He is oft injured, makes a lot and has just 4 years left on his deal. I would look to move him every offseason till he's a UFA unless we can get Johnson and Killorn off cheaply.

I'm just explaining why I think JBB would want to move Stamkos. My point is that even moving all 4 of the players that many posters prefer to move probably isn't enough.

 

[Felonious Python]

elsewhere...

 

[8999]

elsewhere...

Seems they are 'spinning' it themselves to make 3 separate goals sound like just one and conveniently ignore the fact that dumping salary is probably the most challenging thing in the universe for GMs this offseason.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'm just explaining why I think JBB would want to move Stamkos. My point is that even moving all 4 of the players that many posters prefer to move probably isn't enough.

How is clearing out almost 20M not enough to sign Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak long term?

 

[8999]

How is clearing out almost 20M not enough to sign Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak long term?

There's still cap hits for the players that replace Gourde/Johnson/Killorn/Palat and Point's raise, for starters. And this would be while filling virtually all other roster spots with minimal salaries, which I don't think would be Plan A for JBB.