Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[T REX]

Serg, Cirelli, Cernak vs Stammer at 30 coming off TWO surgeries.

I love the guy but sometimes tough decisions need to be made.

No, I'm not 100% on it but those 3 guys are a big part of our future.

 

[Todd1a]

Serg, Cirelli, Cernak vs Stammer at 30 coming off TWO surgeries.

I love the guy but sometimes tough decisions need to be made.

No, I'm not 100% on it but those 3 guys are a big part of our future.

If we can’t move killorn how do you expect teams will want stamkos ?

 

[Crunchrulz]

Ummm what's the point of hockey if not to win a cup? Why focus on a future cup when we literally just won one. You dont sacrifice a legit shot at a cup for anything. You dont win a cup and then go directly into a rebuild because you don't want to lose a couple of guys who weren't even key players on the run.

Faire enuff. So we keep the aging core (at whatever the cost) that has shown so much promise and hit the jackpot this past season, cast aside the pieces who have not been here for long enough to warrant the same level of devotion, use the cap space to rent what we need, and hope we can ride those steeds to another title? Let the pieces fall where they may, it is yet another all or nothing season and to heck with the future.
Might be before your time, but there was once a gentleman named Wayne Gretzky who led his team to a few cups and was on the top of his game when he, a couple of teammates, and cash, were traded for assets that his previous team felt would help them continue to be on top. How did that work? History shows his new team failed to win a Cup until long after Gretzky had retired, while his former team would soon be sipping from the Cup once again.
The moral of the story is if you have parts and pieces someone wants, and you can negotiate a deal that all sides are happy with, make the deal. The only deal that is guaranteed to be a 100 percent failure is the one that is not made.

 

[Fabiobest]

This is the $8.5m question. And it's not even about the money... it's about whether betting on Stamkos staying healthy is worth potentially losing Palat/Killorn or Cirelli/Cernak or the entire Gourde/Coleman/Goodrow line due to the salary cap.

Imho it's worth.

 

[Felonious Python]

the present is what puts people in the seats, what helps Vinik offset his costs

look at the Cats down south - good players, team is always lurking, ALWAYS lurking, but never a true contender. Look at their seats during non-COVID. Empty. Dead. Lifeless.

I'd prefer to continue building on the present to make sure our future isn't ^^ - teams like Isles/Rags/even Buffalaffo seats more people than Cats and it's not due to better teams; it's due to people buying in when things were great and continuing to buy in when things are not so

The Panthers aren't true contenders. They aren't even close. A team needs to win a playoff series once a quarter century to start to think about that. They've done absolutely nothing since 1996. Zero playoff series wins since they made the Final against Colorado. Even making the playoffs is rarefied air.

A team can sell hope, or they can sell success. You can only sell hope for so long before either the top pops off the fan base (the correct answer) or the organization freaks out at being held to standards, and tries to lower the definition of success (IF yoU caN MaKe THE pLayofFs, ANyTHING CAN HapPEN), but TB can sell success.

However, what winners have done before is churn the roster, constantly bringing in good young players, and trading or walking away from the old guys they've won with.

 

[PJ817]

The Panthers aren't true contenders.

where did I say contenders? they are always lurking and that's it: lurking but tell me Barkov & Huberdeau, Hoffman, Matheson, Yandle, et al aren't good players or Bob a good goalie?

The seats stay empty... because the team is always lurking ...

 

[Fabiobest]

I continue to repeat that we're not talking about Jumbo Joe (respect to him though)...a 30 points player.
We're talking about a guy who can guarantee the team 1 point/game at least.

 

[T REX]

If we can’t move killorn how do you expect teams will want stamkos ?

You don't think Stammer has more value than Killorn?

No one is going to rescue us but we just won a cup.

No cap relief. It's a very tough situation. I'd rather keep the younger kids than aging vets.

JMHO

 

[JTBF81]

You don't think Stammer has more value than Killorn?

No one is going to rescue us but we just won a cup.

No cap relief. It's a very tough situation. I'd rather keep the younger kids than aging vets.

JMHO

Agreed, while it's possible the current core wins another Cup, keeping all the older vets(including Stamkos) while sacrificing players like Cirelli, Cernak etc is a fast track to mediocrity after a few more years. I know regardless of who goes, Tampa will remain a strong contender for at least 2-3 more seasons, but the moves coming this offseason could determine if Tampa us a strong contender 5+ years or more down the road as well.

While I ultimately don't see Stamkos getting moved unless there's a great deal in place and he agrees, 2 core muscle surgeries in 6 months is concerning. It's more concerning than some of his other fluke injuries because from all accounts, the surgery in March went well and he rehabbed, then he over compensated and had the same issue on the other side. This then became aggravated to the point where it tore fully and another procedure was required. How confident can Brisebois and the Lightning be that even with another great rehab, Stamkos will make it through even a truncated season+playoffs?

So the very real and large gamble is for 4 more years, how many runs will Stammer once again be a spectator while Tampa loses a Selke caliber 2C, top 4 shutdown RD, and possibly multiple pieces of a shutdown 3rd line, when a trade of Stamkos, while stunning and painful, likely nets Tampa 2-3 quality prospects/young players to keep the window of contention going for many years with a blended core of young guys and vets(Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Vasi, Serg, McD, Cernak etc.). I still think Brisebois ends up.swallowing his pride and eventually moves Johnson and Killorn for whatever the cost in picks/pitiful return it is in order to re-sign the 3 main rfa's, but the Stamkos vs the young core types/valuing the immediate all in view vs the long term contention status of the team no doubt is making Brisebois earn his money this offseason.

 

[Todd1a]

You don't think Stammer has more value than Killorn?

No one is going to rescue us but we just won a cup.

No cap relief. It's a very tough situation. I'd rather keep the younger kids than aging vets.

JMHO

no because right now Stamkos has to prove that he can get healthy again and stay healthy! I think Gm's will have concerns that he had two procedures in the span of 7 months for the same issue pretty much. plus Stamkos cap hit vs Killorn.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

I think Stamkos is worth his contract, pretty easily. But you're right that he's not a vital part of the team's success.

I don't think Stamkos is overpaid. But hockey is like all the other capped sports -- in their CBAs, the guys actually there and negotiating (the ones with years in the league) sold out the guys not yet in the league or with just a few years in. It's an agency problem -- there's no one there to negotiate on behalf of for the guys who are going to be entering.

For the teams, that means that strategically the more you can leverage young talent, the better you can make your team for a given cap level. Stammer and Vasy have both earned and are worth their contracts (worth their contracts in the sense that some other team would want them at that cost), but if you pay too many vets what they're worth then you're going to find yourself with no cap space for the bargains. It's just not how you maximize talent under the cap constraint.

Brayden Point is the obvious example. Not only is he better than Stamkos, but he's cheaper. In fact, he's enough cheaper that we can pay for him AND Blake Coleman for what we're paying Stamkos.

All that said, I highly doubt Stammer is going to waive his NMC.

 

[ccman68]

Are we really at a point where people think Stamkos has 0 value? Not that we are trading him but cmon.

 

[DFC]

Faire enuff. So we keep the aging core (at whatever the cost) that has shown so much promise and hit the jackpot this past season, cast aside the pieces who have not been here for long enough to warrant the same level of devotion, use the cap space to rent what we need, and hope we can ride those steeds to another title? Let the pieces fall where they may, it is yet another all or nothing season and to heck with the future.
Might be before your time, but there was once a gentleman named Wayne Gretzky who led his team to a few cups and was on the top of his game when he, a couple of teammates, and cash, were traded for assets that his previous team felt would help them continue to be on top. How did that work? History shows his new team failed to win a Cup until long after Gretzky had retired, while his former team would soon be sipping from the Cup once again.
The moral of the story is if you have parts and pieces someone wants, and you can negotiate a deal that all sides are happy with, make the deal. The only deal that is guaranteed to be a 100 percent failure is the one that is not made.

Edmonton won the cup the next season, with the same core, and has been wandering in the wilderness of great prospects and "future" ever since.

So let's say we trade our main pieces for the sake of the future. What happens when that future arrives? Do we then trade those pieces for the sake of the next future? And so on and so on?

Our window is now. We're not going to go all in. But we're not going to take unnecessary steps back either.

 

[Felonious Python]

It's obviously very hard to do, but while you never know when a team's window will open or close, there are franchises who have transitioned cores.

We were always looking at the Lightning to be the Red Wings. They won with Yzerman and Shanahan, and they won with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. They haven't been able to keep finding those guys, and so they basically just need to retool. Tanking and hoarding picks is a trick to try to achieve that end. It's putting the bumper lanes on.

You look at the Lakers and Celtics. The Celtics won 11 in 13 years.

The Habs. Check this set of years they won it. 1944, 1946, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979

You look at the Pats and Yankees. Always there.

 

[aessi]

If we can’t move killorn how do you expect teams will want stamkos ?

Stamkos could be game changer, we live in some weord f***ing times if Stamkos doesnt get intrest in trade market.

 

[The Gongshow]

Believe it or not we need the scoring depth. The point line was the only one producing in night in and night out. While our 3rd line was great they didnt score much.

We're lucky our PP got hot, cause at times our offense looked like it was drying up again. Having Stamkos provides more goal scoring should we have to face teams like Colorado, Vegas (theres dried up in the DAL series), Toronto, washington.

Our defense and shutdown is much, much better but theres gonna be games and even series where we're gonna need scoring depth. Stamkos makes this team better.

 

[DFC]

Believe it or not we need the scoring depth. The point line was the only one producing in night in and night out. While our 3rd line was great they didnt score much.

We're lucky our PP got hot, cause at times our offense looked like it was drying up again. Having Stamkos provides more goal scoring should we have to face teams like Colorado, Vegas (theres dried up in the DAL series), Toronto, washington.

Our defense and shutdown is much, much better but theres gonna be games and even series where we're gonna need scoring depth. Stamkos makes this team better.

I feel like if we'd had either a healthy Cirelli, or a Stamkos, scoring depth wouldn't have been an issue.

 

[The Gongshow]

I feel like if we'd had either a healthy Cirelli, or a Stamkos, scoring depth wouldn't have been an issue.

Agreed. Cirelli with 19 and 16 goals is pretty good, considering we also had him as a shutdown line this year. That said Stamkos still has a more reliable resume at the moment should we have to lose Cirelli, Stamkos takes his spot (back).

Stamkos takes important faceoffs on the PK, while not being out there the whole time like Cirelli or being a shutdown guy, he easily makes up for that with his PP1 and presence on the ice of teams focusing on him and opening ice for other players and lines. Cirelli just doesn't do that or has the star power.

Give and take for both. I'm hoping we can keep both, but we'll see...
(I see our 3rd line being the shutdown line next year)

 

[VinikToWinIt]

This is the $8.5m question. And it's not even about the money... it's about whether betting on Stamkos staying healthy is worth potentially losing Palat/Killorn or Cirelli/Cernak or the entire Gourde/Coleman/Goodrow line due to the salary cap.

I don't see why we would be losing anyone on the 3rd line outside of maybe Gourde, unless you're referring to next offseason. Coleman and Goodrow are two of our best value contracts for the next year.

 

[8999]

I don't see why we would be losing anyone on the 3rd line outside of maybe Gourde, unless you're referring to next offseason. Coleman and Goodrow are two of our best value contracts for the next year.

Right, there are going to have to be more tradeoffs in the 4 years remaining on the Stamkos contract, even if Johnson/Killorn/Palat/Gourde are all moved. Bridge deals on Point + RFAs will expire by then as will ELCs used to fill the gaps this season.

TB doesn't necessarily have to lose both Coleman or Goodrow (even if they get raises in a year) but it will be tight. Mostly just pointing out for dramatic effect that the Stamkos cap hit is on par with multiple combinations of players, including the entire Gourde line.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Throw in Cernak to get someone to take killorn wth ?

https://thehockeywriters.com/devils...8ftvDObDGK05rlAvm3fttFqDzc28V4G-Xgrdnn6yeAskM

JBB will never do that

 

[PJ817]

JBB will never do that

ever... insert good Taylor Swift song here ... never, ever

 

[Coburn and Condra]

ever... insert good Taylor Swift song here ... never, ever

You go talk to your GM, talk to my GM, talk to me.

 

[AndreRoy]

insert good Taylor Swift song here

I would if I could find one.

 

[The Gongshow]

I would if I could find one.

Got em