Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[8999]

Could you see McD being the guy out? If you trade him, you should be able to re sign all 3 players somewhat reasonably.(10M in cap) Choose one to bridge to next season and pay Seattle to take Johnson or whatever contract is easiest, then give that money to the bridged player

Losing McDonagh probably hurts TB in the short-term but JBB certainly can see him being a guy out. But even moving McD is not really enough to solve JBB's RFA problems. The 10m you mention with McD gone would be with 17 players signed, not including the 3 RFAs.

As a Florida fan, how does the expansion draft affect your views. Doesn’t it mean unless you pay Seattle a pretty penny, you’d lose one of your top 4D next year or one of your forwards (Palat/Cirelli)?

Think it's the opposite. TB will be lucky if Seattle takes McD for 'free'. GM Francis is no dummy and he's not going make it easy for JBB to move any big contract if they are still in a difficult cap situation, even if it's a player they want.

 

[violaswallet]

Losing McDonagh probably hurts TB in the short-term but JBB certainly can see him being a guy out. But even moving McD is not really enough to solve JBB's RFA problems. The 10m you mention with McD gone would be with 17 players signed, not including the 3 RFAs.



Think it's the opposite. TB will be lucky if Seattle takes McD for 'free'. GM Francis is no dummy and he's not going make it easy for JBB to move any big contract if they are still in a difficult cap situation, even if it's a player they want.

Ah so you view McD as insulted from the expansion draft? Makes sense

I do think 10M could do a good bit actually especially say if you can move Coburn for something small if you bridge properly. The current cap environment puts major negative pressure on players and might let you re sign Serg and Cirelli at near 10M if you give one a short term contract

 

[8999]

Ah so you view McD as insulted from the expansion draft? Makes sense

I do think 10M could do a good bit actually especially say if you can move Coburn for something small if you bridge properly. The current cap environment puts major negative pressure on players and might let you re sign Serg and Cirelli at near 10M if you give one a short term contract

Insulted? Insulated? If McD would waive now for a team that's willing to make a deal that's relatively more attractive (or less painful) than JBB's other options, JBB would probably do it. But that's a big 'if'. Some TB fans are hoping McD gets picked up by Seattle because that gets around the NTC but I don't think JBB can rely on a plan that assumes that happens.

You're right that moving McD would help the cap situation but more moves need to be made. GM Zito (and any other GM) is likely better off waiting for those other moves to happen first.

 

[The Gongshow]

Day 11

The dark clouds outside my window, mirrored in the large pools that inhabit the now wet pavement. The light sound of rain hitting the roof fills my head.

I once again check to see if any news can brighten my rainy day. Nothing.

Our defense is depleted, our right side completely empty. As empty as the celebritory cans and bottles consumed when days seemed brighter, longer and full of hope and joy. My calendar not yet turned a page ahead, the 28th of september, circled in red.

I'm thankful for the memories, but worried about what comes next and if they will be dreams or nightmares.

3RFA's remain unsigned. Johnson remains a bolt. Jumbo Joe a shark no mo. News? There is none

- Gong

(Pt.1 page 17)

 

[Fiamma]

Are there any worthwhile free agent RDs if Cernak is moved?

About d line. There was a rumor in the Russian press that Lightning is close to signing Nesterov for a minimum

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Kuch's buddy Ozhiganov is a RD and was frozen out by Babcock. Maybe he's a half decent player?

 

[CupsOverCash]

Tampas management has been spectacular over the years. We may lose a player or two that we don't want to lose but I think our management has earned our confidence in them to make sure we get out of this with limited damage to the overall roster and its ability to contend next year and going forward. We will be fine. I'm gonna be patient and look forward to seeing what they end up doing. I'm confident they will do what's right to help this team continue to contend.

 

[PJ817]

About d line. There was a rumor in the Russian press that Lightning is close to signing Nesterov for a minimum

Here's the link to Russian commentator:



Here's the Russian from that commentator (bold underline = Nesterov discussion):

– Нестеров, как я понимаю, поедет в «Тампу» на минимальные деньги. Если это так, то вин-вин. Бабки Никита заработал в России, пора и в хоккей поиграть. «Лайтнинг» же отпустили Шаттенкирка с Богосяном. Оба играли на заведомо заниженных контрактах. Они на это соглашались ради Кубка Стэнли. Нестеров – ради возможности вернуться в НХЛ. Зайти через парадный вход шансов у него не было.

I underlined the relevant piece (yes, I used to speak/read/write fluent Russian)

Here's the translation:

Nesterov, as I understand it, will go to Tampa for minimal money. If so, then win-win. Nikita earned money in Russia, it's time to play hockey. Lightning released Shattenkirk and Bogosian. Both played on deliberately low contracts. They agreed to this for the Stanley Cup. Nesterov - for the sake of the opportunity to return to the NHL. He had no chance to enter through the front door.

 

[Stormbreaker]

JFBB is going to use his jedi mind tricks with a multi team trade, at least that's my hope. He's got to get creative in this flat cap world.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Here's the link to Russian commentator:



Here's the Russian from that commentator (bold underline = Nesterov discussion):

– Нестеров, как я понимаю, поедет в «Тампу» на минимальные деньги. Если это так, то вин-вин. Бабки Никита заработал в России, пора и в хоккей поиграть. «Лайтнинг» же отпустили Шаттенкирка с Богосяном. Оба играли на заведомо заниженных контрактах. Они на это соглашались ради Кубка Стэнли. Нестеров – ради возможности вернуться в НХЛ. Зайти через парадный вход шансов у него не было.

I underlined the relevant piece (yes, I used to speak/read/write fluent Russian)

Here's the translation:

Nesterov, as I understand it, will go to Tampa for minimal money. If so, then win-win. Nikita earned money in Russia, it's time to play hockey. Lightning released Shattenkirk and Bogosian. Both played on deliberately low contracts. They agreed to this for the Stanley Cup. Nesterov - for the sake of the opportunity to return to the NHL. He had no chance to enter through the front door.

Would be cool if true!

 

[violaswallet]

Insulted? Insulated? If McD would waive now for a team that's willing to make a deal that's relatively more attractive (or less painful) than JBB's other options, JBB would probably do it. But that's a big 'if'. Some TB fans are hoping McD gets picked up by Seattle because that gets around the NTC but I don't think JBB can rely on a plan that assumes that happens.

You're right that moving McD would help the cap situation but more moves need to be made. GM Zito (and any other GM) is likely better off waiting for those other moves to happen first.

Insulated! Sorry: I only am on my phone for productivity reasons. My concern for Tampa is essentially giving up a lot of depth to say save Sergachev/McD and then lose one of them or Cernak at the ED

 

[PJ817]

Would be cool if true!

Nesterov returning? eek

I watched in PyeongChang - he still moofed a lot in front of goal; Ilya carried that team to gold ...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I don't you think you understand who all we need to sign with that $9.6m:
- First, you have to count the cap hit of the last roster spot guy once you call him up (that's $750k for ABB, or TBD for Volkov but >=$700k; TBD for Joseph as well).
- That only leaves $8.9m for the big 3 RFAs -- Serg, Cirelli AND Cernak
- So maaaaybe we can get there if one of the guys does the team-friendly thing (e.g Cernak for $1.7m, Serg for $4.5m and Cirelli cuts us a break by taking the rest -- $2.7m -- for one year with the promise of cashing in next year).
- But they might all demand proper compensation, and if so we can't keep all three under your scenario.

And even if we do get the team-friendly deal from one guy, then we've only got 18 skaters on roster and not a penny to spare. That means we can't bring anyone up from Syracuse at all during the RS without sending someone down or putting someone on LTIR (and ABB is is the only guy who is waiver exempt, so anyone else would have to pass through waivers). Given that the rules let you keep 23 guys on roster (typically 21 skaters and 2 goalies), trying to scrape through a full season with only enough money for 18 skaters is a really bad idea.

Last, you're assuming we buy out Johnson. That will mean we spend the next 8 seasons with (on average) $1.75m each year in dead cap space. I'll be shocked if does that -- you think we're hurting now, just wait until we try to get through Pointer's raise with that dead space.

Getting rid of Paquette and Coburn would help in loosening the collar on this (we can net $1m in usable space on each of them, after accounting for league-minimum replacements), but not really enough. I've been assuming we trade Killorn AND Johnson AND Paquette AND Coburn (if we get him to waive, but not absolutely critical if we can move the other 3).

So if we really can't trade Johnson this year, I'd put heavy odds that we trade away Cirelli, hopefully for some pretty serious futures value. Buying out Johnson is just too problematic long term, and really doesn't help that much.

Not a chance in h*ll you are signing Serge and Cirelli for 8.9M. Using Ottawa as comps: Chabot got 8M alone and he is not even close to Serge as a defender. White got 4.75M and he is not even close to Cirelli. You guys are sniffin da glue down there.
Do you realize that Serge could very well become da next NHL #1 D? He has a total complete game. All he needs is more reps.
and Cirelli is already a solid NHL 2nd line centre. A guy who should pick up 60 points per and be one of games best 2 way players.

And Cernak is one of those big tough D with hands and ok skating who gets 3.5M easy like a Chiarot.

Boys you need to think through your number crunching. Thank god you guys got a massive tax heaven in Florida with no state tax.

But even with that you are not going to fit all 3 guys even if all 3 take massive team deals.

 

[Felonious Python]

Not a chance in h*ll you are signing Serge and Cirelli for 8.9M. Using Ottawa as comps: Chabot got 8M alone and he is not even close to Serge as a defender. White got 4.75M and he is not even close to Cirelli. You guys are sniffin da glue down there.
Do you realize that Serge could very well become da next NHL #1 D? He has a total complete game. All he needs is more reps.
and Cirelli is already a solid NHL 2nd line centre. A guy who should pick up 60 points per and be one of games best 2 way players.

And Cernak is one of those big tough D with hands and ok skating who gets 3.5M easy like a Chiarot.

Boys you need to think through your number crunching. Thank god you guys got a massive tax heaven in Florida with no state tax.

But even with that you are not going to fit all 3 guys even if all 3 take massive team deals.

Do things like Ottawa, get Ottawa results.

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[8999]

Insulated! Sorry: I only am on my phone for productivity reasons. My concern for Tampa is essentially giving up a lot of depth to say save Sergachev/McD and then lose one of them or Cernak at the ED

Oh I think I follow now.

For the ED, I think JBB actually has some flexibility b/c he probably mostly cares about protecting the following:

Point/Kucherov/Cirelli/Stamkos (only b/c of NMC)
Hedman/Sergachev/Cernak

If JBB really wants to keep McD or Palat he can obviously go with 4+4 or 7+3 accordingly. But I don't think they need to bother protecting McD because I doubt Seattle is taking on that contract.

To your original post, it's great that you see McD as a desirable acquisition target for FLA but not sure if GM Zito agrees. TB isn't worried about how to protect McD; they are wondering if there is any way to escape from the bad later years of the contract, even if it means parting with McD while he is still playing well.

 

[These Are The Days]

Day 11

The dark clouds outside my window, mirrored in the large pools that inhabit the now wet pavement. The light sound of rain hitting the roof fills my head.

I once again check to see if any news can brighten my rainy day. Nothing.

Our defense is depleted, our right side completely empty. As empty as the celebritory cans and bottles consumed when days seemed brighter, longer and full of hope and joy. My calendar not yet turned a page ahead, the 28th of september, circled in red.

I'm thankful for the memories, but worried about what comes next and if they will be dreams or nightmares.

3RFA's remain unsigned. Johnson remains a bolt. Jumbo Joe a shark no mo. News? There is none

- Gong

(Pt.1 page 17)

Once again I discover something I never knew I needed so badly until I discovered its existence

 

[NatoGhost]

Not a chance in h*ll you are signing Serge and Cirelli for 8.9M. Using Ottawa as comps: Chabot got 8M alone and he is not even close to Serge as a defender. White got 4.75M and he is not even close to Cirelli. You guys are sniffin da glue down there.
Do you realize that Serge could very well become da next NHL #1 D? He has a total complete game. All he needs is more reps.
and Cirelli is already a solid NHL 2nd line centre. A guy who should pick up 60 points per and be one of games best 2 way players.

And Cernak is one of those big tough D with hands and ok skating who gets 3.5M easy like a Chiarot.

Boys you need to think through your number crunching. Thank god you guys got a massive tax heaven in Florida with no state tax.

But even with that you are not going to fit all 3 guys even if all 3 take massive team deals.

Glad you're not our GM.

 

[NatoGhost]

Florida fan here so self interested:

Could you see McD being the guy out? If you trade him, you should be able to re sign all 3 players somewhat reasonably.(10M in cap) Choose one to bridge to next season and pay Seattle to take Johnson or whatever contract is easiest, then give that money to the bridged player

Edit: the reason I say McD is that Tampa has a choice of protecting 4D (Hed, McD, Serg, Cern) or 7 forwards (Kuch, Point, Stammer, Cirelli, Palat...) and if you protect 4D you lose a valuable player as well instead of a cap dump

If I was JBB, yes McD is available. What are you offering?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Glad you're not our GM.

Good luck to you when Bruins poach Serge at 6-7M per for 3 years. and Wings take Cirelli at 5M per for 3 years. I think you will be left with Cernak though.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Do things like Ottawa, get Ottawa results.

I'll hang up and listen.

I don't think that's a very fair response to that person.

I just came here to checkout some fan opinions on what the shake up for Tampa will be like.

Do you guys think Johnson will fold and go to a different team or do you think 1 of your RFA s will be traded. Just wondering give me some detes.

 

[Felonious Python]

I don't think that's a very fair response to that person.

I just came here to checkout some fan opinions on what the shake up for Tampa will be like.

Do you guys think Johnson will fold and go to a different team or do you think 1 of your RFA s will be traded. Just wondering give me some detes.

I think it's pretty fair. If the only model someone can conceive of is giving every possibly good young player that comes along a mega-contract and going for these wild swings of boom and bust, then it's probably not going to work out. Consistently great teams can get guys to buy in to a different way. TB does bridge deals. Everyone since Stamkos's second deal has signed one. Stammer, Hedman, Palat, Johnson, Vasi, Killorn, Point (although a bit more on the expensive side on that one). To a man.

We also know our guys pretty well and Serg is being overrated by other fan bases. The word is that Serg really wants to be here. If he's serious, he's got to buy-in.

 

[bov]

Not a chance in h*ll you are signing Serge and Cirelli for 8.9M. Using Ottawa as comps: Chabot got 8M alone and he is not even close to Serge as a defender. White got 4.75M and he is not even close to Cirelli. You guys are sniffin da glue down there.
Do you realize that Serge could very well become da next NHL #1 D? He has a total complete game. All he needs is more reps.
and Cirelli is already a solid NHL 2nd line centre. A guy who should pick up 60 points per and be one of games best 2 way players.

And Cernak is one of those big tough D with hands and ok skating who gets 3.5M easy like a Chiarot.

Boys you need to think through your number crunching. Thank god you guys got a massive tax heaven in Florida with no state tax.

But even with that you are not going to fit all 3 guys even if all 3 take massive team deals.

You're in for a big surprise. Look at what Eugene has done to you...

 

[violaswallet]

Oh I think I follow now.

For the ED, I think JBB actually has some flexibility b/c he probably mostly cares about protecting the following:

Point/Kucherov/Cirelli/Stamkos (only b/c of NMC)
Hedman/Sergachev/Cernak

If JBB really wants to keep McD or Palat he can obviously go with 4+4 or 7+3 accordingly. But I don't think they need to bother protecting McD because I doubt Seattle is taking on that contract.

To your original post, it's great that you see McD as a desirable acquisition target for FLA but not sure if GM Zito agrees. TB isn't worried about how to protect McD; they are wondering if there is any way to escape from the bad later years of the contract, even if it means parting with McD while he is still playing well.

I get you completely: if McD is not being protected all is good for Tampa and not a clear thing to exploit on D.

Eh I think McD looks like he will age well, but you’re right the contract is the problem: I do think a team like forward could actually exploit that to their benefit by offering almost zero value (similar to Schmidt) in some ways which makes the contract a bit easier to absorb, but obviously Tampa would not accept!

 

[CupsOverCash]

Good luck to you when Bruins poach Serge at 6-7M per for 3 years. and Wings take Cirelli at 5M per for 3 years. I think you will be left with Cernak though.

Every year we see these threats from fans on hf but never see it. Why is that?

 

[Fabiobest]

Good luck to you when Bruins poach Serge at 6-7M per for 3 years. and Wings take Cirelli at 5M per for 3 years. I think you will be left with Cernak though.

Thank you, you're very kind. Many teams will "steal" our players...also Turin hockey club will sign Kucherov and Frolunda will sign Hedman. You're very kind to let us keep at least Cernak.

Ah, PS:

we have also another thing...imagine what I'm talking about...