2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Generic Thread Titles Be Damned (Part III)

[Frenzy31]

Let's not forgot we won Cup with Pietro, Jbo and healthy Gunnar and Edmundson.

what does that have to do with the Shaw vs MVR discussion?

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

what does that have to do with the Shaw vs MVR discussion?

Think he’s implying it was more the players than the system

 

[BlueDream]

Think he’s implying it was more the players than the system

Which doesn’t make any sense because we had good players here for Shaw as well.

 

[Prosaic]

I wanted to ask fellow Blues fans, do you think, assuming he would re-sign, the Blues should extend Hoffman?

I lean on the side of no, but his skillset is undeniably lethal on the PP. The problem from me stems from the fact he is really a liability 5v5 and if you look at previous seasons the statistics do support that.

 

[BlueDream]

I wanted to ask fellow Blues fans, do you think, assuming he would re-sign, the Blues should extend Hoffman?

I lean on the side of no, but his skillset is undeniably lethal on the PP. The problem from me stems from the fact he is really a liability 5v5 and if you look at previous seasons the statistics do support that.

Only way it should be considered is if we can somehow dump Tarasenko.

But we shouldn’t bring back both, no.

 

[Brian39]

I wanted to ask fellow Blues fans, do you think, assuming he would re-sign, the Blues should extend Hoffman?

I lean on the side of no, but his skillset is undeniably lethal on the PP. The problem from me stems from the fact he is really a liability 5v5 and if you look at previous seasons the statistics do support that.

I wouldn't extend Hoffman unless there is a different head coach. Hoffman's style doesn't fit Berube's system, he hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt his game to Berube's system and Berube hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt the system to Hoffman's strengths. I don't see any reason to expect Hoffman's 5 on 5 performance to improve under Berube.

I disagree that he has been such a liability his whole career though. He's put up 28+ even strength points in each of his 6 seasons before coming here and had 11 this year (on pace for 17). His five 5 on 5 goals this year is less than half of his career low. His career possession stats have been middling-to-somewhat-poor his entire career and plummeted to absolutely terrible this year. Prior to this year, he was a defensive/possession liability that offset those deficiencies by being a genuine scoring threat at 5 on 5. The defensive numbers haven't slipped at all (and in some cases have improved) while the offensive numbers have plummeted.

He has been a serviceable 5 on 5 guy his entire career, but he hasn't been under Berube. I haven't seen anything to tell me that will change in the future, so I wouldn't extend him.

 

[Reality Czech]

I wouldn't extend Hoffman unless there is a different head coach. Hoffman's style doesn't fit Berube's system, he hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt his game to Berube's system and Berube hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt the system to Hoffman's strengths. I don't see any reason to expect Hoffman's 5 on 5 performance to improve under Berube.

I disagree that he has been such a liability his whole career though. He's put up 28+ even strength points in each of his 6 seasons before coming here and had 11 this year (on pace for 17). His five 5 on 5 goals this year is less than half of his career low. His career possession stats have been middling-to-somewhat-poor his entire career and plummeted to absolutely terrible this year. Prior to this year, he was a defensive/possession liability that offset those deficiencies by being a genuine scoring threat at 5 on 5. The defensive numbers haven't slipped at all (and in some cases have improved) while the offensive numbers have plummeted.

He has been a serviceable 5 on 5 guy his entire career, but he hasn't been under Berube. I haven't seen anything to tell me that will change in the future, so I wouldn't extend him.

I get what you're saying but I'd rather have a 30 goal scorer week is a defensive liability than a 15 goal guy who isn't. Maybe Hoffman has finally won Berube over since his benching a little while back.

If Schwartz comes back I don't see a spot for Hoffman, but if he moves on them bringing Hoff back becomes more likely.

 

[Xerloris]

I wouldn't extend Hoffman unless there is a different head coach. Hoffman's style doesn't fit Berube's system, he hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt his game to Berube's system and Berube hasn't shown an ability/willingness to adapt the system to Hoffman's strengths. I don't see any reason to expect Hoffman's 5 on 5 performance to improve under Berube.

I disagree that he has been such a liability his whole career though. He's put up 28+ even strength points in each of his 6 seasons before coming here and had 11 this year (on pace for 17). His five 5 on 5 goals this year is less than half of his career low. His career possession stats have been middling-to-somewhat-poor his entire career and plummeted to absolutely terrible this year. Prior to this year, he was a defensive/possession liability that offset those deficiencies by being a genuine scoring threat at 5 on 5. The defensive numbers haven't slipped at all (and in some cases have improved) while the offensive numbers have plummeted.

He has been a serviceable 5 on 5 guy his entire career, but he hasn't been under Berube. I haven't seen anything to tell me that will change in the future, so I wouldn't extend him.

You have to put your guys into a position to succeed and Berube did not do that with Hoffman until after the TDL. He had nearly no PP time and he played on the 3rd line instead of with ROR/Schenn, you know, the guys that can dig the puck out and need someone to shoot it when they pass it to them from the boards.

 

[Brian39]

I get what you're saying but I'd rather have a 30 goal scorer week is a defensive liability than a 15 goal guy who isn't. Maybe Hoffman has finally won Berube over since his benching a little while back.

If Schwartz comes back I don't see a spot for Hoffman, but if he moves on them bringing Hoff back becomes more likely.

For equal money I agree, but I don't see Hoffman signing for anything close to what you're paying a 15 goal guy. Hoffman played 15:32 last night in a game where we trailed for lengthy stretches and badly needed offense. He was 7th among our forwards in even strength TOI and his 5 on 5 play hasn't been great. He hasn't done anything to change Berube's opinion of him at 5 on 5, so there isn't any evidence that he has won over Berube beyond finally being on the top PP unit. His red hot stick on the PP didn't lead to an uptick in even strength usage, so I think that 3rd line winger (that gets benched in cold streaks) would be his role moving forward.

If he signs at a bargain, then great. But I don't see him signing at a AAV/term that matches bottom 6 usage with top unit PP time.

 

[Xerloris]

I get what you're saying but I'd rather have a 30 goal scorer week is a defensive liability than a 15 goal guy who isn't. Maybe Hoffman has finally won Berube over since his benching a little while back.

If Schwartz comes back I don't see a spot for Hoffman, but if he moves on them bringing Hoff back becomes more likely.

As much as I love Schwartz I just don't see what he actually brings to the team anymore. He grinds the boards great but nothing ever comes of it so what's the point?

 

[Brian39]

You have to put your guys into a position to succeed and Berube did not do that with Hoffman until after the TDL. He had nearly no PP time and he played on the 3rd line instead of with ROR/Schenn, you know, the guys that can dig the puck out and need someone to shoot it when they pass it to them from the boards.

Completely agree. But other than finally putting Hoffman on the top PP unit, Berbue has not changed his usage of Hoffman. He is still being deployed as a bottom 6 forward at 5 on 5 and is not playing minutes with the top lines. He got 1 minute with each of ROR, Schenn and Schwartz last night.

Nothing suggests that Berube would play him in the top 6 moving forward if we extend him. I don't like the way Berube has used Hoffman this year and I think that Hoffman is still a 30-35 goal and 30-35 assist guy in the right environment. But I have zero belief that he does it under Berube.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

For equal money I agree, but I don't see Hoffman signing for anything close to what you're paying a 15 goal guy. Hoffman played 15:32 last night in a game where we trailed for lengthy stretches and badly needed offense. He was 7th among our forwards in even strength TOI and his 5 on 5 play hasn't been great. He hasn't done anything to change Berube's opinion of him at 5 on 5, so there isn't any evidence that he has won over Berube beyond finally being on the top PP unit. His red hot stick on the PP didn't lead to an uptick in even strength usage, so I think that 3rd line winger (that gets benched in cold streaks) would be his role moving forward.

If he signs at a bargain, then great. But I don't see him signing at a AAV/term that matches bottom 6 usage with top unit PP time.

A lot of that low TOI has got to be because of zone starts. I haven't looked at any stats, but it felt like we spent most the night starting in the d-zone.

 

[Brockon]

As much as I love Schwartz I just don't see what he actually brings to the team anymore. He grinds the boards great but nothing ever comes of it so what's the point?

Well... Without taking a deep dive into the breakdown, team production by season over the past 5 years...

2020-21 8th in team scoring, 6th among F
21pts in 40 gp

2019-20 4th in team scoring, 4th among F
57pts in 71gp

2018-19 7th in team scoring, 6th among F
36pts in 69gp

2017-18 3rd in team scoring, 3rd among F
59pts in 62gp

2016-17 2nd in team scoring, 2nd among F
55pts in 78gp

He's lost ice time and optimal deployment to Perron, ROR and Schenn over the past few seasons. He continues to be a puck hound and "do the little things" that win you games, a la Steen - I don't want to be paying him 6 AAV, we're going to notice his absence if we trade him or let him walk. Simply because we don't have another guy with the same drive Schwartz has and brings every night he dresses... Instead, we'd see Sanford get more minutes.

The following article outlines some advanced stats which I won't summarize. The Secret Weapon That is Jaden Schwartz

 

[Frenzy31]

Well... Without taking a deep dive into the breakdown, team production by season over the past 5 years...

2020-21 8th in team scoring, 6th among F
21pts in 40 gp

2019-20 4th in team scoring, 4th among F
57pts in 71gp

2018-19 7th in team scoring, 6th among F
36pts in 69gp

2017-18 3rd in team scoring, 3rd among F
59pts in 62gp

2016-17 2nd in team scoring, 2nd among F
55pts in 78gp

He's lost ice time and optimal deployment to Perron, ROR and Schenn over the past few seasons. He continues to be a puck hound and "do the little things" that win you games, a la Steen - I don't want to be paying him 6 AAV, we're going to notice his absence if we trade him or let him walk. Simply because we don't have another guy with the same drive Schwartz has and brings every night he dresses... Instead, we'd see Sanford get more minutes.

The following article outlines some advanced stats which I won't summarize. The Secret Weapon That is Jaden Schwartz

How much are you willing to pay him to bring him back?

 

[Xerloris]

Well... Without taking a deep dive into the breakdown, team production by season over the past 5 years...

2020-21 8th in team scoring, 6th among F
21pts in 40 gp

2019-20 4th in team scoring, 4th among F
57pts in 71gp

2018-19 7th in team scoring, 6th among F
36pts in 69gp

2017-18 3rd in team scoring, 3rd among F
59pts in 62gp

2016-17 2nd in team scoring, 2nd among F
55pts in 78gp

He's lost ice time and optimal deployment to Perron, ROR and Schenn over the past few seasons. He continues to be a puck hound and "do the little things" that win you games, a la Steen - I don't want to be paying him 6 AAV, we're going to notice his absence if we trade him or let him walk. Simply because we don't have another guy with the same drive Schwartz has and brings every night he dresses... Instead, we'd see Sanford get more minutes.

The following article outlines some advanced stats which I won't summarize. The Secret Weapon That is Jaden Schwartz

You make him seem not so bad but I'm not sure if I like that or not.

 

[Reality Czech]

For equal money I agree, but I don't see Hoffman signing for anything close to what you're paying a 15 goal guy. Hoffman played 15:32 last night in a game where we trailed for lengthy stretches and badly needed offense. He was 7th among our forwards in even strength TOI and his 5 on 5 play hasn't been great. He hasn't done anything to change Berube's opinion of him at 5 on 5, so there isn't any evidence that he has won over Berube beyond finally being on the top PP unit. His red hot stick on the PP didn't lead to an uptick in even strength usage, so I think that 3rd line winger (that gets benched in cold streaks) would be his role moving forward.

If he signs at a bargain, then great. But I don't see him signing at a AAV/term that matches bottom 6 usage with top unit PP time.

I definitely agree on the money part. One reason Hoffman took a one-year deal was to hopefully cash in after this season, and I don't blame him for that. I like Berube overall and but wonder how flexible he is regarding players who don't play his style. He certainly didn't give Hoffman many breaks for most of the season, but then I was surprised to see him roll with Thomas, Kyrou and Hoffman so much because that line would make a defensive-minded coach pretty nervous. But when they were producing, no one could argue with keeping them together. Now that Hoff has finally proved his worth I feel Berube is giving him a little more leeway. He did move him up to the 2nd line to try and get something going, so I think Berube recognizes what Hoffman is all about. I'm a bit surprised he played so little at 5-on-5 because just watching it I didn't feel Hoffman was being held back that much.

I agree that Hoffman may never be more than a middle 6 winger here, but it may come down to what other contenders would be interested in him and how much he likes it here. Would he rather be a top line player on a below average team or fight for ice time on a contender? I don't think he'd have a much easier time cracking the lineup on Colorado, Vegas, Boston, Tampa, Washington, etc.

 

[Brockon]

How much are you willing to pay him to bring him back?

I'd offer him 4AAV over whatever term he wants initially and wait for the counter offer. I don't want to be paying him over 5.5AAV or for more than 6 years.

I don't see Schwartz (or his agent) accepting a pay cut from his current 5.35AAV. I have a sneaky suspicion that he's going to get somewhere in the neighbourhood of ~5.75AAV for 6 or 7 years if he's re-signed. Similar to the Steen deal, which I fully expect is going to look brutal for the last 2-3 years of the contract in terms of production for your dollar.

 

[The Note]

I have 0 desire to be paying Schwartz for the next 6-7 years. I suspect that is what he will ask for, and I hope DA encourages him to test UFA at that point and see if he can't get 5-6 years on the open market. With the Faulk/Schenn/Krug/Binnington deals I have little appetite for extending more guys into their late 30s when most of those deals are going to be getting ugly in the next 2-3 years as is.

 

[Brian39]

A lot of that low TOI has got to be because of zone starts. I haven't looked at any stats, but it felt like we spent most the night starting in the d-zone.

It's right in line with the TOI down the stretch. He averaged 15:08 a night since his 3 point night at the end of April. He hasn't had back-to-back 16+ minute nights since the middle of March.

 

[simon IC]

I'd offer him 4AAV over whatever term he wants initially and wait for the counter offer. I don't want to be paying him over 5.5AAV or for more than 6 years.

I don't see Schwartz (or his agent) accepting a pay cut from his current 5.35AAV. I have a sneaky suspicion that he's going to get somewhere in the neighbourhood of ~5.75AAV for 6 or 7 years if he's re-signed. Similar to the Steen deal, which I fully expect is going to look brutal for the last 2-3 years of the contract in terms of production for your dollar.

Wait...WHAT? Whatever term he wants? You would go multi-year with Mike Hoffman?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

It's right in line with the TOI down the stretch. He averaged 15:08 a night since his 3 point night at the end of April. He hasn't had back-to-back 16+ minute nights since the middle of March.

Then ignore what I said; I was addressing low TOI, and that doesn't seem low to me. Burakovsky (4.9Mx2@26), Vrana(3.35Mx1@25), Dubois(5Mx2@22), Tatar(4.8Mx1@30), Domi(5.3Mx2@26), Konecny(5.5Mx5@24), Gurianov(2,55Mx2@23), Neidereiter(5.25Mx2@28), Duclair(1.7Mx1@25), Kubalik(3.7x2@25) all get between 15-16 min TOI and have similarish offensive production. Factoring in age, I think Hoffman's value comes in around 5-5.5M on a 2-4 year deal. To be clear, I don't think I was disagreeing with you earlier about what it would take to keep him, but that's Bozak money, and I'd gladly pay that to keep Hoffman if we can get the term down to 2-3 years.

 

[Brian39]

Wait...WHAT? Whatever term he wants? You would go multi-year with Mike Hoffman?

Brock and Frenzy are talking about Schwartz, not Hoffman. Vincenzo and I are talking about Hoffman.

 

[Celtic Note]

So when do we start talking about a heavy retool/rebuild? Seems like this off-season could be where that needs to start happening.

 

[Prosaic]

So when do we start talking about a heavy retool/rebuild? Seems like this off-season could be where that needs to start happening.

I think the season and divisional realignment really do make me question whether DA takes this route and given recent transactions and decisions, I am not confident he's the right guy going forward or that Berube is the right coach going forward. I agree the Blues need to inject more talent and look for more mobility on the backend. They can't handle Colorado's transition game and look at how good Makar, Toews and Girard are in transition. The Blues can't match it all. They need more speed and talent up front as well.

In a normal season, based on the statistical assessment I can muster up from NST, the Blues probably are competing for 8th seed with
COL/MIN/DAL as top 3 in the Central
VGK/EDM/ARZ as top 3 in the Pacific
Then you have WPG/NSH/LAK/CHI/STL in the race for WC spots.

But if you look at the team's future outlook, all the significant pieces:
91 - 7.5M UFA 2023
90 - 7.5M UFA 2023
10 - 6.5M UFA 2029
17 - 5.35M UFA 2021

When the time comes do you hold onto 90? I think it's a question if 91 will ever be what he once was and only time will tell or they part ways with him this offseason or he may even retire who knows at this point. I think 90 is the type of player who ages well but given his contract history, his agency and how DA seems to handle that it doesn't bode well.

Do you try to move 10? Expose him to SEA? His underlying numbers we're terrible and that contract doesn't look pretty.

Not selling 17 at the deadline was infuriatingly dumb in my opinion. Same goes for 68. But do you extend 17? 68? EW contract projections have 17 at 3 x 4.7 and 68 at 5 x 5.8.

Now the defence core
72 - 6.5M UFA 2028
47 - 6.5M UFA 2028
55 - 5.5M UFA 2023
6 - 3.275M UFA 2025

Do you look to try and move on from 72 and 47? Expose one or both? I mean, those contracts are not helping the team at all. What about 6? Do you keep 55 when the time comes?

If the plan is a retool, when is the plan to win? If it's two years from now, then a lot of this core will be in their 30s and on the downside of their career.

That's why all the extensions made zero sense once DA let 27 walk. What the heck is this team suppose to be?

 

[Thallis]

So when do we start talking about a heavy retool/rebuild? Seems like this off-season could be where that needs to start happening.

Doug is aggressive, but I don't know how willing he is to pull the plug on the whole roster. We're locked into a lot of long contracts with middling players with such a bare prospect pool that you're looking more at a full rebuild than a retool imo. Hard to imagine Stillman and the ownership would be thrilled with that 2 years after making a profit for the first time in franchise history.