Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
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If you part ways with these guys roster/cap space becomes available, but what do you do with that space. FA is a pricey way to fill the holes and usually you don’t find the types of players that I would call the caliber, winning variety, nor age we should be looking to add. If we are going the trade route then letting people walk in FA is challenging because you are losing assets. We could do deadline trades on expiring contracts, but then you are looking more at a rebuild than a retool.I think the season and divisional realignment really do make me question whether DA takes this route and given recent transactions and decisions, I am not confident he's the right guy going forward or that Berube is the right coach going forward. I agree the Blues need to inject more talent and look for more mobility on the backend. They can't handle Colorado's transition game and look at how good Makar, Toews and Girard are in transition. The Blues can't match it all. They need more speed and talent up front as well.
In a normal season, based on the statistical assessment I can muster up from NST, the Blues probably are competing for 8th seed with
COL/MIN/DAL as top 3 in the Central
VGK/EDM/ARZ as top 3 in the Pacific
Then you have WPG/NSH/LAK/CHI/STL in the race for WC spots.
But if you look at the team's future outlook, all the significant pieces:
91 - 7.5M UFA 2023
90 - 7.5M UFA 2023
10 - 6.5M UFA 2029
17 - 5.35M UFA 2021
When the time comes do you hold onto 90? I think it's a question if 91 will ever be what he once was and only time will tell or they part ways with him this offseason or he may even retire who knows at this point. I think 90 is the type of player who ages well but given his contract history, his agency and how DA seems to handle that it doesn't bode well.
Do you try to move 10? Expose him to SEA? His underlying numbers we're terrible and that contract doesn't look pretty.
Not selling 17 at the deadline was infuriatingly dumb in my opinion. Same goes for 68. But do you extend 17? 68? EW contract projections have 17 at 3 x 4.7 and 68 at 5 x 5.8.
Now the defence core
72 - 6.5M UFA 2028
47 - 6.5M UFA 2028
55 - 5.5M UFA 2023
6 - 3.275M UFA 2025
Do you look to try and move on from 72 and 47? Expose one or both? I mean, those contracts are not helping the team at all. What about 6? Do you keep 55 when the time comes?
If the plan is a retool, when is the plan to win? If it's two years from now, then a lot of this core will be in their 30s and on the downside of their career.
That's why all the extensions made zero sense once DA let 27 walk. What the heck is this team suppose to be?
The catch 22 is keeping aging players on contracts that are too long and waiting too long to sell them. With all the NTCs given, it will be harder to move guys for the right pieces.
I think the only way around these problems is a multifaceted approach. We need to expose a big contract at expansion to get out of a long term, bad deal. We can then try to sign a FA with that money to fill one of many holes. Hopefully that is Krug and we can get a solid top 4 that plays a two-way game. Then groom Dunn for a greater offensive role and hope Perunovich turns out.
With Schwartz I am probably looking to sign him for under $5m on a 3ish year term. If we can’t get that done before FA, then you might need to go forward shopping as well.
I would also expose Tarasenko. If nothing else, it may piss him off enough that we can get him to waive his NTC and trade him for needed assets. That frees up money for FA shopping next offseason for a forward.
Even with those strategies, we still probably need to find more talent and the challenge is figuring out how.