2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Generic Thread Titles Be Damned (Part III)

[Prosaic]

I was dumbfounded when Armstrong didn’t sell.

Let’s be honest, the team has been brutal all season long. Even going back to last season the underlying numbers took a huge dip compared to 2019.

The offense is among the worst in the league and the defense is mediocre at best.

Good thing we kept Hoffman, Schwartz and Bozak for the run. Did us so well.

 

[MissouriMook]

This humiliation at the hands of the Avs could accelerate Armstrong's willingness to concede that the contending window is shut for now.

I don't think attempting to put a band aid on this roster is going to work. Neither is a slow retool. Let Schwartz walk as a UFA and start scouting out trade partners that might want ROR. Find out what Parayko wants and sign him if its reasonable. If he wants much more than he's currently making then cash in on him as well by trading him to the highest bidder. I know this won't be a popular take but personally I'd rather avoid a slow shuffle into oblivion by proactively acquiring as many high picks as possible and go full rebuild to the extent that they can.

I think a lot of what you say here makes sense, but I don't necessarily agree with ROR being someone you move out as part of the process unless he wants out. Even if you're going full re-build, I think you still need to keep some veteran leadership around to teach the young players how to be pros and to make sure you're hitting the salary floor. Veteran guys who are still performing like ROR, Perron, Parayko, Faulk and Binnington will keep the path clear (and maybe more importantly, butts in the seats) while the next generation of talent takes the reigns.

That said, guys that have disappeared for long stretches (or completely in some cases) can be moved for futures as you're able and replaced with youthful talent that (hopefully) learns how to win from the veterans and the performing young talent already here. As I advocated in another thread, I think you expose guys like Schenn and Tarasenko, along with lower profile underperforming players, knowing that only one of them can be taken and you figure out how to move on from the others, either by letting them walk as UFAs or arranging trades that they will not veto through their NTCs.

 

[TK 421]

I think a lot of what you say here makes sense, but I don't necessarily agree with ROR being someone you move out as part of the process unless he wants out. Even if you're going full re-build, I think you still need to keep some veteran leadership around to teach the young players how to be pros and to make sure you're hitting the salary floor. Veteran guys who are still performing like ROR, Perron, Parayko, Faulk and Binnington will keep the path clear (and maybe more importantly, butts in the seats) while the next generation of talent takes the reigns.

That said, guys that have disappeared for long stretches (or completely in some cases) can be moved for futures as you're able and replaced with youthful talent that (hopefully) learns how to win from the veterans and the performing young talent already here. As I advocated in another thread, I think you expose guys like Schenn and Tarasenko, along with lower profile underperforming players, knowing that only one of them can be taken and you figure out how to move on from the others, either by letting them walk as UFAs or arranging trades that they will not veto through their NTCs.

ROR is great and I agree he makes for an ideal mentor for younger forwards but he may not want to stick around for a rebuild or even a heavy retool. In the rebuild hypothetical I'd ask him what he'd like to do given the situation and make a decision based off that.

 

[Thallis]

ROR is great and I agree he makes for an ideal mentor for younger forwards but he may not want to stick around for a rebuild or even a heavy retool. In the rebuild hypothetical I'd ask him what he'd like to do given the situation and make a decision based off that.

Yeah, I'd prefer to keep him, but his contract will be up in 2 years and I think he'd rather take another run at a cup than stick around. He's already been through the pain of rebuilding and I doubt he's in a hurry to do that again. For that matter, ask Perron where he wants to be at next year's deadline and send him there as a thank you for his loyalty.

 

[Louie the Blue]

I was dumbfounded when Armstrong didn’t sell.

Let’s be honest, the team has been brutal all season long. Even going back to last season the underlying numbers took a huge dip compared to 2019.

The offense is among the worst in the league and the defense is mediocre at best.

Good thing we kept Hoffman, Schwartz and Bozak for the run. Did us so well.

This team is 2 years removed from winning it all.

Selling when being on the bubble does more bad than good in that situation in terms of explaining it to the fan base and players. It’s how you become Buffalo.

 

[mike1320]

This team is 2 years removed from winning it all.

Selling when being on the bubble does more bad than good in that situation in terms of explaining it to the fan base and players. It’s how you become Buffalo.

To add- they went in to the playoffs playing pretty good hockey and then things literally fell apart the day the playoffs started. Parayko needs a full offseason to recover, they need a stay at home top 4 D man, and maybe a speedy winger to replace Schwartz.

But hey, let's panic and gut the team and fire the GM.

 

[Prosaic]

This team is 2 years removed from winning it all.

Selling when being on the bubble does more bad than good in that situation in terms of explaining it to the fan base and players. It’s how you become Buffalo.

The Blues sold while on the “bubble” in 2017 and 2018.

Those acquired assets helped them make a trade for Ryan O’Reilly, who won a Conne Smythe, Selke, should’ve been nominated for the Hart and was the biggest factor in their Stanley Cup win accomplishing something only Wayne Gretzky has ever done.

Sure when you continually mismanage assets you become Buffalo. But when you use your assets wisely you don’t. If the Blues let all 3 of Bozak, Hoffman and Schwartz walk after getting completely embarrassed in 4 games by Colorado not only is it mismanagement but it’s mismanagement that never made sense to begin with because the Blues should’ve sold at the deadline. Anything is better than nothing.

 

[Louie the Blue]

The Blues sold while on the “bubble” in 2017 and 2018.

Those acquired assets helped them make a trade for Ryan O’Reilly, who won a Conne Smythe, Selke, should’ve been nominated for the Hart and was the biggest factor in their Stanley Cup win accomplishing something only Wayne Gretzky has ever done.

Sure when you continually mismanage assets you become Buffalo. But when you use your assets wisely you don’t. If the Blues let all 3 of Bozak, Hoffman and Schwartz walk after getting completely embarrassed in 4 games by Colorado not only is it mismanagement but it’s mismanagement that never made sense to begin with because the Blues should’ve sold at the deadline. Anything is better than nothing.

They let Backes and Brouwer leave during that time via FA and traded picks for Schenn.

They didn’t trade to rebuild, including Shattenkirk who Armstrong mishandled.

 

[mike1320]

The Blues sold while on the “bubble” in 2017 and 2018.

Those acquired assets helped them make a trade for Ryan O’Reilly, who won a Conne Smythe, Selke, should’ve been nominated for the Hart and was the biggest factor in their Stanley Cup win accomplishing something only Wayne Gretzky has ever done.

Sure when you continually mismanage assets you become Buffalo. But when you use your assets wisely you don’t. If the Blues let all 3 of Bozak, Hoffman and Schwartz walk after getting completely embarrassed in 4 games by Colorado not only is it mismanagement but it’s mismanagement that never made sense to begin with because the Blues should’ve sold at the deadline. Anything is better than nothing.

The reason we're getting embarrassed by Colorado is because our #1 d man is playing with a busted up back, they have AHL defensemen plugging holes due to injury, Tarasenko is not healthy, and our top scorer is out.

 

[Prosaic]

They let Backes and Brouwer leave during that time via FA and traded picks for Schenn.

They didn’t trade to rebuild, including Shattenkirk who Armstrong mishandled.

They traded Shattenkirk for Sanford and 2017 1st

The 2017 1st was then used in a trade to get Schenn. Sanford was playing with O’Reilly and Perron for Game 7.

Stastny was traded for a 2018 1st and Foley. They used the 1st to move up and snag Bokk who was then flipped in part of the Faulk trade.

So sure there was no direct correlation to the O’Reilly trade, but I’d believe it’s easier to make that deal because of the assets the Blues have.

The point is, the Blues mishandled Schwartz, Hoffman and Bozak unless all 3 are re-signed.

 

[Xanadude]

This series and season suck but we've got a ton of veteran talent and have shown that, when healthy, we can keep up with-admittedly need 2019-esque luck to beat in seven, but can keep up with-the best in the league. You don't blow it up yet.

Berube goes long before our Conn Smythe-winning captain gets traded or we give up on our franchise-face sniper altogether.

If we're a shitshow next year, I bet Berube gets axed first, then if things don't improve from there you might see Perron cup chase if he wants to something like that...but we may re-tool a bit but lots of cup winners or run-makers take a step back and re-tool. Chicago got bounced in the first round in 2011 and 2012, Boston took a long while to bounce back after 2013, Pens are just now coming back around after some less-than-impressive appearances.

I don't see this core winning another cup, but GMDA has invested way too much win-now in this brainchild to dismantle it after this hard-luck year.

 

[Thallis]

To add- they went in to the playoffs playing pretty good hockey and then things literally fell apart the day the playoffs started. Parayko needs a full offseason to recover, they need a stay at home top 4 D man, and maybe a speedy winger to replace Schwartz.

But hey, let's panic and gut the team and fire the GM.

This is a mirage. This team played worse hockey over its last 20 games than the previous 30 by every metric but wins. We matched up well against Minnesota and took a couple games off Colorado's backup. This hockey team is barely a playoff team when healthy and the core are past the best years of their career. St. Louis will be a hard sell to UFAs without the certainty of contending and we need a defenseman who can actually drive the offense, one of the hardest positions in the league to fill. Band-aid solutions aren't going to do anything but delay the inevitable as we slide toward the basement.

The reason we're getting embarrassed by Colorado is because our #1 d man is playing with a busted up back, they have AHL defensemen plugging holes due to injury, Tarasenko is not healthy, and our top scorer is out.

Parayko is not a 1D on a cup contending team. You need him to be better on offense than he has ever been in his career. Defense by committee can work if you have legitimate superstars up front, but our forward group doesn't stand out without Tarasenko at full speed, and even with him is only good.

 

[mike1320]

Parayko is not a 1D on a cup contending team.

Ok

 

[BlueMed]

This is a mirage. This team played worse hockey over its last 20 games than the previous 30 by every metric but wins. We matched up well against Minnesota and took a couple games off Colorado's backup. This hockey team is barely a playoff team when healthy and the core are past the best years of their career. St. Louis will be a hard sell to UFAs without the certainty of contending and we need a defenseman who can actually drive the offense, one of the hardest positions in the league to fill. Band-aid solutions aren't going to do anything but delay the inevitable as we slide toward the basement.



Parayko is not a 1D on a cup contending team. You need him to be better on offense than he has ever been in his career. Defense by committee can work if you have legitimate superstars up front, but our forward group doesn't stand out without Tarasenko at full speed, and even with him is only good.

That's not really proven though. In theory, you can have an entire committee approach work. Even looking at Boston, their D core is McAvoy and 5 other guys. That got them to game 7 of the SCF. And no, they don't have legit superstars up front like MacKinnon, Rantanen, McDavid, Drai, etc. because you can't really shut down superstars in a series. Guys like Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak were shut down fairly easily by Parayko and Jbow.

Moving forward, I'm all for exposing Krug to the expansion draft and keeping Dunn. One could argue that Dunn is a slightly better defensemen at 1/3 of the cost. Also happy to trade Perunovich for a first rounder this year because he'll likely be another Krug in the future. At no point in the season did I ever say, "wow, that's why we're paying him 6.5M, because he can make plays like that."

 

[BlueMed]

I was dumbfounded when Armstrong didn’t sell.

Let’s be honest, the team has been brutal all season long. Even going back to last season the underlying numbers took a huge dip compared to 2019.

The offense is among the worst in the league and the defense is mediocre at best.

Good thing we kept Hoffman, Schwartz and Bozak for the run. Did us so well.

How can you compare this team to last year with all the injuries this season? Did you seriously take the time to look at the underlying numbers given how many guys were out this year? You missed the forest for the trees.

You can however argue that Berube and staff aren't getting the most out of our talent up front. If you look around the league, there are teams like NYI and FLA that are playing better, more structured hockey than we are with half of the depth. It's also difficult to sell a team when last year, prior to COVID, the Blues led the west without Tarasenko. People keep forgetting about that.

 

[Prosaic]

That's not really proven though. In theory, you can have an entire committee approach work. Even looking at Boston, their D core is McAvoy and 5 other guys. That got them to game 7 of the SCF. And no, they don't have legit superstars up front like MacKinnon, Rantanen, McDavid, Drai, etc. because you can't really shut down superstars in a series. Guys like Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak were shut down fairly easily by Parayko and Jbow.

Moving forward, I'm all for exposing Krug to the expansion draft and keeping Dunn. One could argue that Dunn is a slightly better defensemen at 1/3 of the cost. Also happy to trade Perunovich for a first rounder this year because he'll likely be another Krug in the future. At no point in the season did I ever say, "wow, that's why we're paying him 6.5M, because he can make plays like that."

You literally couldn’t name 5 wingers in the league better than Brad Marchand

Pastrnak is a 50 goal scoring winger. Easily top 10 among all wingers.

Bergeron is a top 5 center in the league and one of the best two-way centers in the game.

Ya that line didn’t have the best 7 games but get real. That’s as good as star power gets.

And also, in 18-19, the Blues had 19 players with a xGF% above 50 (Min 200 TOI)
Dropped to 14 in 19-20
Dropped to 1 in 2021

All I’m saying is compare the roster in 2019 to 2021. Saying the Blues roster is worse isn’t missing the forest for the trees, it’s being realistic.

COVID and injury also isn’t much of an excuse. Every team in the league is under the same circumstances.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The Blues are in a similar situation to what I thought Minnesota was in. Minnesota had/has an aging core. They didn't have too much in the way of exciting prospects, at least not enough to lead one to believe they'd break into contender status. I felt like they'd missed their moment to embrace a rebuild, and were doomed to mediocrity for a while.

What I'm wondering is, what did Minnesota do right? They've obviously been a surprise team this year. I don't think they'll beat Vegas, but I wouldn't have been shocked if they had. Maybe they yet will. Is there anything there the Blues can emulate in how the team moved pieces?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

You literally couldn’t name 5 wingers in the league better than Brad Marchand

Pastrnak is a 50 goal scoring winger. Easily top 10 among all wingers.

Bergeron is a top 5 center in the league and one of the best two-way centers in the game.

Ya that line didn’t have the best 7 games but get real. That’s as good as star power gets.

And also, in 18-19, the Blues had 19 players with a xGF% above 50 (Min 200 TOI)
Dropped to 14 in 19-20
Dropped to 1 in 2021

All I’m saying is compare the roster in 2019 to 2021. Saying the Blues roster is worse isn’t missing the forest for the trees, it’s being realistic.

COVID and injury also isn’t much of an excuse. Every team in the league is under the same circumstances.

Well that's just blatantly false. Every team is POTENTIALLY under the same circumstances, but which other playoff team is without 4 defenders right now (5 if we added Gunnarsson)? What other team is missing their leading scorer to Covid protocol right now? You can argue Toronto lost Tavares, and it remains to be seen how they respond. You can argue that Washington lost Kuznetzov, and they're struggling. But no one has the pile of crappy luck that the Blues are staring at right now. Its just not their year.

The Blues have objectively had much more adversity than most of the rest of the league, certainly among contending teams. Its not an excuse to simply acknowledge the reality of it. The main purpose in doing that is to modify future projections when those circumstances improve. We had lengthy debates on this forum as to whether the Blues would be competitive with Colorado and Vegas in the post-season with the roster as constructed in training camp. Well, there are no winners nor losers to those arguments, because it never happened. We don't know if they could have been. What we got instead was a hobbled team running on fumes.

 

[BlueMed]

You literally couldn’t name 5 wingers in the league better than Brad Marchand

Pastrnak is a 50 goal scoring winger. Easily top 10 among all wingers.

Bergeron is a top 5 center in the league and one of the best two-way centers in the game.

Ya that line didn’t have the best 7 games but get real. That’s as good as star power gets.

And also, in 18-19, the Blues had 19 players with a xGF% above 50 (Min 200 TOI)
Dropped to 14 in 19-20
Dropped to 1 in 2021

All I’m saying is compare the roster in 2019 to 2021. Saying the Blues roster is worse isn’t missing the forest for the trees, it’s being realistic.

COVID and injury also isn’t much of an excuse. Every team in the league is under the same circumstances.

Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak are stars. Guys like MacKinnon, Rantanen, McDavid, Draisaitl, Crosby, prime Ovechkin and prime Malkin are superstars. The difference isn't the points. It's the skill level and those guys are on a completely different planet. It's very difficult to shut down superstars in a series.

 

[Novacain]

The Blues are in a similar situation to what I thought Minnesota was in. Minnesota had/has an aging core. They didn't have too much in the way of exciting prospects, at least not enough to lead one to believe they'd break into contender status. I felt like they'd missed their moment to embrace a rebuild, and were doomed to mediocrity for a while.

What I'm wondering is, what did Minnesota do right? They've obviously been a surprise team this year. I don't think they'll beat Vegas, but I wouldn't have been shocked if they had. Maybe they yet will. Is there anything there the Blues can emulate in how the team moved pieces?

Your biggest minsconception is that you are under rating how good Minnesota was to begin with: they were a very very good defensive team that was held back by a middling offense but most notably by a god damned atrocious goaltender in Dubnyk. They didn’t need a great goaltender to be a playoff lock, just a solid-good one. Add that with adding an impact rookie and you have a perennial playoff team again.

Our problems are much more severe then what the Wild have. The Wild had an elite defensive core to build around, and we don’t. I’m not sure if there is one actual element of hockey the Blues are above average at. We have to figure out a team identity before we can answer and questions about how we can turn this around imo.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Your biggest minsconception is that you are under rating how good Minnesota was to begin with: they were a very very good defensive team that was held back by a middling offense but most notably by a god damned atrocious goaltender in Dubnyk. They didn’t need a great goaltender to be a playoff lock, just a solid-good one. Add that with adding an impact rookie and you have a perennial playoff team again.

Our problems are much more severe then what the Wild have. The Wild had an elite defensive core to build around, and we don’t. I’m not sure if there is one actual element of hockey the Blues are above average at. We have to figure out a team identity before we can answer and questions about how we can turn this around imo.

But all the pundits missed this turnaround too. There were no preseason projections for them to do this after replacing Dubnyk. I think you oversimplify things. If people saw this coming they were awfully quiet about it.

 

[Novacain]

But all the pundits missed this turnaround too. There were no preseason projections for them to do this after replacing Dubnyk. I think you oversimplify things. If people saw this coming they were awfully quiet about it.

All pundits also had the Blues on equal footing with Vegas and Colorado and if you paid any attention to roster construction you knew they were full of it too.

But, legit answer? NHL Pundits generally suck and don’t account for things like “how well do the teams players meet there style”. Past that, having a legitimate star forward can really change the tempo for a team like Minnesota a lot, and that makes everyone throughout the lineup better. There was a reason back in January I said I thought the odds were better that Minnesota ended up with a better record then us then we did of being better then Colorado or Vegas. They were still pretty solid favorites for the 4 seed going into this season and they got a superstar forward and good goaltending to really push them forward after that.

 

[Spektre]

They traded Shattenkirk for Sanford and 2017 1st

The 2017 1st was then used in a trade to get Schenn. Sanford was playing with O’Reilly and Perron for Game 7.

Stastny was traded for a 2018 1st and Foley. They used the 1st to move up and snag Bokk who was then flipped in part of the Faulk trade.

So sure there was no direct correlation to the O’Reilly trade, but I’d believe it’s easier to make that deal because of the assets the Blues have.

The point is, the Blues mishandled Schwartz, Hoffman and Bozak unless all 3 are re-signed.

You have to believe if the Blues didn’t go on the mini hot streak they would have dumped some players.

I can’t fault Army for going for it but he wasn’t aggressive. I think the fact he didn’t trade futures says a lot too.

Oh well,, onto next year

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

All pundits also had the Blues on equal footing with Vegas and Colorado and if you paid any attention to roster construction you knew they were full of it too.

But, legit answer? NHL Pundits generally suck and don’t account for things like “how well do the teams players meet there style”. Past that, having a legitimate star forward can really change the tempo for a team like Minnesota a lot, and that makes everyone throughout the lineup better. There was a reason back in January I said I thought the odds were better that Minnesota ended up with a better record then us then we did of being better then Colorado or Vegas. They were still pretty solid favorites for the 4 seed going into this season and they got a superstar forward and good goaltending to really push them forward after that.

We were right with them until we got gobsmacked by injuries. Unfortunately we never recovered.

 

[TheDizee]

the people who want Hoffman back better seriously look at his 5on5 numbers this year. Almost all of his points are on the PP or 6on5.

If hes cheap, yeah sure bring him back. But no way do I want considerable money going into this guy, hes a terrible 5on5 producer.