2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Generic Thread Titles Be Damned (Part III)

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yes, we went through long injuries to most of our depth centers.

And incredibly, despite all the injuries and Zach Sanford looking absolutely brutal on the ROR-Perron line, we just didn't ever give Hoffman an extended try on that line. ROR was Hoffman's 9th most frequent line mate at 5 on 5. Hoffman spent less time with ROR than he did with each of Thomas, Schenn, Bozak, and Sunny. 3 of those centers missed 20+ games with a ton of overlap on the missed games. Injries were an opportunity to try Hoffman with ROR, not a hinderance in Berube's ability to do so. The 1LW spot was a rotating door all year between pretty much every winger on the roster besides Hoffman. Sanford, Kyrou, Blais, Schenn, Barby, and Tarasenko all got more time with ROR than Hoffman did this year. Schwartz was only 3 minutes behind Hoffman despite missing 20+ games. Moreover, for some reason Hoffman's minutes with ROR were substantially more defensive oriented than any player who played more than 25 minutes with ROR this season. Hoffman and ROR were on the ice together for a 5 on 5 offensive zone face off 12 times this year.

Berube had full ability to try Hoffman/ROR for an extended period of time and decided not to.

I had the impression the coaches prioritized Tarasenko’s role over Hoffman. It’s sensible since he’s under contract and Hoffman was 1y. It was pretty frustrating to watch when Vlad was largely ineffective early, but as the year has gone on he showed glimmers and improvement.

That strategy may have compromised this season’s results a bit in favor of the longer future. And it may have been nothing more than trusting the guy you know better, but that’s how it looked to me.

 

[Stealth JD]

I wonder if Tarasenko's 2-goal outburst in G4 has the same effect on Doug Armstrong as the three-game winning streak in advance of the TDL did. If Tarasenko goes quietly into the offseason, maybe the temptation to expose him in the ED is far greater than it would have otherwise been. Much like that winning streak; maybe Hoffman and Schwartz get dealt and the retooling is bolstered if they had kept losing at the TDL. I can see Army giving #91 the benefit of the doubt and expecting a bounce-back knowing he's been hampered by injury and rust.

 

[Brian39]

I had the impression the coaches prioritized Tarasenko’s role over Hoffman. It’s sensible since he’s under contract and Hoffman was 1y. It was pretty frustrating to watch when Vlad was largely ineffective early, but as the year has gone on he showed glimmers and improvement.

That strategy may have compromised this season’s results a bit in favor of the longer future. And it may have been nothing more than trusting the guy you know better, but that’s how it looked to me.

I don't disagree, but Hoffman was getting underutilized for the 7 weeks before Tarasenko returned too.

Before the Schwartz injury, the top-unit PP was ROR, Schenn, Perron, Schwartz and Krug. All 5 of those guys were over 40 minutes of PP time with no one else being at 30 minutes. When Schwartz went down, Hoffman was put on the top unit for 5 games during the stretch where Berube also briefly experimented with Faulk on the top unit over Krug. After these 5 games, Hoffman was demoted from the top unit and replaced with Sunny until Sunny was hurt on 3/5/21. Tarasenko came back the next night and Hoffman stayed on the 2nd unit until the middle of April when he started badly outscoring the still-awful top unit and forced the issue.

In the 24 games before Tarasenko returned, Hoffman was only on the top unit for a handful of games. The team's PP was 22nd in the league over those 24 games. Perron, ROR, Schenn, Schwartz, Krug and Sunny were the 6 guys who got top unit time over Hoffman during that stretch and they combined for 8 total PP goals in those 24 games. Hoffman, Sanford, Faulk and Dunn combined for 5 PP goals in that stretch from a #2 unit that get substantially less time/opportunities. The PP was brutal in the first half of the season and Berube chose to leave the league's 7th best PP goal scorer of the previous 3 seasons off the top unit. He absolutely deferred to Tarasenko over Hoffman once Tarasenko came back, but he misused Hoffman well before then.

Edit: It can't be overstated just how damn good Hoffman is on the PP. In the last 4 seasons (including this one), his 43 PP goals sit directly between Mackinnon (44) and Matthews (39) for 9th best in the league. If you look at the 4 years prior to this season he sits in 4th place between Laine and Draisaitl. Over that same stretch he has 5 more PP goals than Kucherov in just 3 extra games. Not having him locked in to the top unit PP every game this season was asinine.

 

[Prosaic]

Alright, so I wanted to chime in on the Hoffman and Sanford talk, because the consensus is that Hoffman was completely under-utilized, while Sanford was completely over-utilized.

So, I dived into NST to see what the numbers say. I think it's pretty obvious Hoffman should've been on PP1 and tasked to just rip bombs from the right circle from day one. But let's look at 5on5. I think it'll shock people. The parameters are set from 2018 through 2021 (3 seasons). I'll also post this season exclusively. It's sorted by All Forwards with at least 500 minutes played. Going into next season, by default there must be 192 top 6 Forwards and 288 Top 9 Forwards.

xGF% - Sanford ranks 194th (50.87), Hoffman ranks 404th (45.73)
xGF/60 - Sanford ranks 300th (2.14), Hoffman ranks 368th (2.03)
xGA/60 - Sanford ranks 89th (2.07), Hoffman ranks 365th (2.41)
CF% - Sanford ranks 249th (49.62), Hoffman ranks 292nd (48.77)
GF% - Sanford ranks 133rd (53.75), Hoffman ranks 340th (45.67)
Goals/60 - Sanford ranks 124th (0.82), Hoffman ranks 137th (0.8)
Points/60 - Sanford ranks 205th (1.64), Hoffman ranks 233rd (1.57)

Off. Zone Starts% - Sanford ranks 296th (52.23), Hoffman ranks 61st (64.60)

While people rip on Sanford a lot and it's not unjustified, it is also completely fair to conclude that a player who's underlying numbers across the board are better than another, despite seeing significantly less offensive zone starts, deserves to play more.

This also makes sense when you recognize that Berube deploy's O'Reilly a lot for defensive situations and Hoffman is not the guy for those scenarios. I don't necessarily think Sanford is either but he's also undeniably a better option than the likes of Blais, Barbashev, Clifford, none of whom are really any good at all. Sanford ideally is on the third line. Don't hate Sanford for playing too much, blame Berube for overusing him or Armstrong for not building a deep enough forward core and spending 4M on a player everyone could've reasonably predicted would not work here.

Using EV 5on5 forward line combos feature, Hoffman completely sank every line he was on. It's not really surprising that Florida got rid of him and replaced him with Carter Verhaeghe and suddenly is immensely better for it.

I agree the Blues need to inject more raw talent and speed, but a 31 year old Hoffman who is not even a top 9 forward statistically is not the answer to that. A lot of that speed, skill and ability to move the puck needs to come from the backend. People have grown to love Faulk, but he's definitely not that amazing in any way and considering he's probably our best defender right now, the Blues are in a hole. Look at the Avs with Makar, Girard, Toews, Timmins. These guys are skaters and can move the puck. Blues have one defensemen that fits the mold, and given since Berube is remaining the coach, odds are they might move on from Dunn (which would be a terrible idea). Ideally, you don't play hard ball with your best defender and you have someone to build around but I'd probably expose Krug and either hope Seattle takes him or find a way to move on from him. Our only real hope for getting that anchor defensemen to build around is signing Dougie Hamilton.

In terms of the forwards, I'm not sure what you do with Schenn. Ideally, you find a way out of that contract and go from there. Tarasenko? I guess you bet on him at least being a 25-25-50 player. Might not be worth 7.5M but at this point the contract probably has negative value and mortgaging futures for a team to take that salary while your team is in decline probably isn't very wise. I think Vladdy needs to lose some weight and add more speed, explosiveness to his game. I know he had a groin injury but man he looks sluggish out there. Thomas and Kyrou should play more.

Also, get a backup goalie that is at least somewhat dependable.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I don't disagree, but Hoffman was getting underutilized for the 7 weeks before Tarasenko returned too.

Before the Schwartz injury, the top-unit PP was ROR, Schenn, Perron, Schwartz and Krug. All 5 of those guys were over 40 minutes of PP time with no one else being at 30 minutes. When Schwartz went down, Hoffman was put on the top unit for 5 games during the stretch where Berube also briefly experimented with Faulk on the top unit over Krug. After these 5 games, Hoffman was demoted from the top unit and replaced with Sunny until Sunny was hurt on 3/5/21. Tarasenko came back the next night and Hoffman stayed on the 2nd unit until the middle of April when he started badly outscoring the still-awful top unit and forced the issue.

In the 24 games before Tarasenko returned, Hoffman was only on the top unit for a handful of games. The team's PP was 22nd in the league over those 24 games. Perron, ROR, Schenn, Schwartz, Krug and Sunny were the 6 guys who got top unit time over Hoffman during that stretch and they combined for 8 total PP goals in those 24 games. Hoffman, Sanford, Faulk and Dunn combined for 5 PP goals in that stretch from a #2 unit that get substantially less time/opportunities. The PP was brutal in the first half of the season and Berube chose to leave the league's 7th best PP goal scorer of the previous 3 seasons off the top unit. He absolutely deferred to Tarasenko over Hoffman once Tarasenko came back, but he misused Hoffman well before then.

Edit: It can't be overstated just how damn good Hoffman is on the PP. In the last 4 seasons (including this one), his 43 PP goals sit directly between Mackinnon (44) and Matthews (39) for 9th best in the league. If you look at the 4 years prior to this season he sits in 4th place between Laine and Draisaitl. Over that same stretch he has 5 more PP goals than Kucherov in just 3 extra games. Not having him locked in to the top unit PP every game this season was asinine.

I'm not arguing with any of these observations, but I remember Hoffman looking pretty lost in the early season. I think the little work delay at the start of the year put him on his back foot, missing some crucial practices, and he never really got comfortable with a role in the first couple weeks. What I'm saying is that I think Hoffman DID play better in the 2nd half of the season and part of the usage issues were a response to early poor play. May have been unreasonable to expect more from him then, but when the team started going into crisis mode there were few luxuries like being able to give a guy lots of rope to find his way.

The reason I mention any of this is that I don't put all these decisions on Berube. I think he has some talented assistants who have some responsibility here too. To paint the situation as 100% Berube misusing Hoffman ignores some of the early opportunities that he failed to capitalize on. The PP for certain got better late in the year. Hoffman's role on it looked a lot more natural too, than the early part of the year. I just think some of the disappointment was the process of him having to learn over time.

 

[Brian39]

Alright, so I wanted to chime in on the Hoffman and Sanford talk, because the consensus is that Hoffman was completely under-utilized, while Sanford was completely over-utilized.

So, I dived into NST to see what the numbers say. I think it's pretty obvious Hoffman should've been on PP1 and tasked to just rip bombs from the right circle from day one. But let's look at 5on5. I think it'll shock people. The parameters are set from 2018 through 2021 (3 seasons). I'll also post this season exclusively. It's sorted by All Forwards with at least 500 minutes played. Going into next season, by default there must be 192 top 6 Forwards and 288 Top 9 Forwards.

xGF% - Sanford ranks 194th (50.87), Hoffman ranks 404th (45.73)
xGF/60 - Sanford ranks 300th (2.14), Hoffman ranks 368th (2.03)
xGA/60 - Sanford ranks 89th (2.07), Hoffman ranks 365th (2.41)
CF% - Sanford ranks 249th (49.62), Hoffman ranks 292nd (48.77)
GF% - Sanford ranks 133rd (53.75), Hoffman ranks 340th (45.67)
Goals/60 - Sanford ranks 124th (0.82), Hoffman ranks 137th (0.8)
Points/60 - Sanford ranks 205th (1.64), Hoffman ranks 233rd (1.57)

Off. Zone Starts% - Sanford ranks 296th (52.23), Hoffman ranks 61st (64.60)

While people rip on Sanford a lot and it's not unjustified, it is also completely fair to conclude that a player who's underlying numbers across the board are better than another, despite seeing significantly less offensive zone starts, deserves to play more.

This also makes sense when you recognize that Berube deploy's O'Reilly a lot for defensive situations and Hoffman is not the guy for those scenarios. I don't necessarily think Sanford is either but he's also undeniably a better option than the likes of Blais, Barbashev, Clifford, none of whom are really any good at all. Sanford ideally is on the third line. Don't hate Sanford for playing too much, blame Berube for overusing him or Armstrong for not building a deep enough forward core and spending 4M on a player everyone could've reasonably predicted would not work here.

Using EV 5on5 forward line combos feature, Hoffman completely sank every line he was on. It's not really surprising that Florida got rid of him and replaced him with Carter Verhaeghe and suddenly is immensely better for it.

I agree the Blues need to inject more raw talent and speed, but a 31 year old Hoffman who is not even a top 9 forward statistically is not the answer to that. A lot of that speed, skill and ability to move the puck needs to come from the backend. People have grown to love Faulk, but he's definitely not that amazing in any way and considering he's probably our best defender right now, the Blues are in a hole. Look at the Avs with Makar, Girard, Toews, Timmins. These guys are skaters and can move the puck. Blues have one defensemen that fits the mold, and given since Berube is remaining the coach, odds are they might move on from Dunn (which would be a terrible idea). Ideally, you don't play hard ball with your best defender and you have someone to build around but I'd probably expose Krug and either hope Seattle takes him or find a way to move on from him. Our only real hope for getting that anchor defensemen to build around is signing Dougie Hamilton.

In terms of the forwards, I'm not sure what you do with Schenn. Ideally, you find a way out of that contract and go from there. Tarasenko? I guess you bet on him at least being a 25-25-50 player. Might not be worth 7.5M but at this point the contract probably has negative value and mortgaging futures for a team to take that salary while your team is in decline probably isn't very wise. I think Vladdy needs to lose some weight and add more speed, explosiveness to his game. I know he had a groin injury but man he looks sluggish out there. Thomas and Kyrou should play more.

Also, get a backup goalie that is at least somewhat dependable.

Practically all of Sanford's good underlying numbers come from playing with ROR. Sanford's CF% with ROR is 52.36 and plummets to 43.81 when he isn't with ROR. His xGF% was 52.93 with ROR and 42.19 without ROR. This trend was true (although not as pronounced) in the timeframe you are referring to. My eye test and his numbers without ROR suggest that his decent metrics are vastly inflated by the fact that he is able to be a competent passenger with ROR and Perron.

Sanford had a couple very good seasons being the passenger on the ROR line, but he was absolutely brutal this season. He finished -13, an expected +/- of -6.2 and all of his underlying numbers were between 46-48%. His actual GF% was 40.91. Historically, it made sense for Berube to put Sanford on ROR's wing, but based on his play this season he did not deserve to get consistent top 6 time.

I think one thing worth pointing out is how much Hoffman has consistently outpaces his possession/underlying metrics through his entire career. His actual GF% has exceed his xGF% by 3% or more in 5 of his 7 full seasons and his actual on ice GF has exceeded his xGF by at least 5 in all of those seasons. He is an elite shooter and his shot absolutely makes his actual performance better than his expected metrics predict. He is one of the few players in the league who consistently outpaces his underlying metrics.

At the end of the day, I don't have a massive issue with his 5 on 5 usage. I'd have liked to at least try him with ROR for an extended period and I despised playing him with Schenn. But he's not a guy I want playing 20 minutes a night. I'd have him as a sheltered middle 6 guy or a top line passenger when fully healthy (with top unit PP time). I think he should have been a top 6 forward when we were going through injury issues and stylistically ROR is a significantly better center for him than Schenn. Sanford not being good enough and the overwhleming injuries created a perfect scenario to try him out with ROR and see if he could be a good passenger on the ROR (but with a better finish than Sanford). But my overall issue is with PP time and my overall point is that when you are talking about a player's desire to re-sign, that limited 5 on 5 usage is relevant even if it isn't unfair. From his perspective, Sanford was absolutely given favorable treatment this year. Hoffman wasn't given a chance to prove he could excel with ROR. Combined with the stupid PP usage and it would make no sense to come back here.

As to the Florida comparison, Hoffman mostly played with Vatrano and Connolly. Verhaeghe has played almost exclusively with Barkov and Duclair. They aren't playing even remotely similar roles.

 

[Prosaic]

Practically all of Sanford's good underlying numbers come from playing with ROR. Sanford's CF% with ROR is 52.36 and plummets to 43.81 when he isn't with ROR. His xGF% was 52.93 with ROR and 42.19 without ROR. This trend was true (although not as pronounced) in the timeframe you are referring to. My eye test and his numbers without ROR suggest that his decent metrics are vastly inflated by the fact that he is able to be a competent passenger with ROR and Perron.

Sanford had a couple very good seasons being the passenger on the ROR line, but he was absolutely brutal this season. He finished -13, an expected +/- of -6.2 and all of his underlying numbers were between 46-48%. His actual GF% was 40.91. Historically, it made sense for Berube to put Sanford on ROR's wing, but based on his play this season he did not deserve to get consistent top 6 time.

I think one thing worth pointing out is how much Hoffman has consistently outpaces his possession/underlying metrics through his entire career. His actual GF% has exceed his xGF% by 3% or more in 5 of his 7 full seasons and his actual on ice GF has exceeded his xGF by at least 5 in all of those seasons. He is an elite shooter and his shot absolutely makes his actual performance better than his expected metrics predict. He is one of the few players in the league who consistently outpaces his underlying metrics.

At the end of the day, I don't have a massive issue with his 5 on 5 usage. I'd have liked to at least try him with ROR for an extended period and I despised playing him with Schenn. But he's not a guy I want playing 20 minutes a night. I'd have him as a sheltered middle 6 guy or a top line passenger when fully healthy (with top unit PP time). I think he should have been a top 6 forward when we were going through injury issues and stylistically ROR is a significantly better center for him than Schenn. Sanford not being good enough and the overwhleming injuries created a perfect scenario to try him out with ROR and see if he could be a good passenger on the ROR (but with a better finish than Sanford). But my overall issue is with PP time and my overall point is that when you are talking about a player's desire to re-sign, that limited 5 on 5 usage is relevant even if it isn't unfair. From his perspective, Sanford was absolutely given favorable treatment this year. Hoffman wasn't given a chance to prove he could excel with ROR. Combined with the stupid PP usage and it would make no sense to come back here.

As to the Florida comparison, Hoffman mostly played with Vatrano and Connolly. Verhaeghe has played almost exclusively with Barkov and Duclair. They aren't playing even remotely similar roles.

So, according to EV, Hoffmans most common line mates were Trochek and Connolly last season. His next most common line mates were Toninato and Vatrano and then Barkov and Huberdeau. Then Connolly and Boyle. Then Malgin and Vatrano. He never actually played with Connolly and Vatrano and that's probably because none of them are centers. Just to add context, he played 150 minutes with Connolly and Trochek and about 67 minutes with Malgin and Vatrano.

Considering Trochek averages 56 points in an 82 game season, he's a quality #2 center based on point production.

Well, looking at the Relative numbers from this season alone:

CF%Rel: Sanford -1.53, Hoffman -3.46
xGF%Rel: Sanford -0.26, Hoffman -4.94
GF%Rel: Sanford -7.46, 1.98
HDCF%Rel: Sanford 2.48, Hoffman -4.35

I'm not arguing Sanford is good. I agree he's carried by his line mates. But, the Blues 3 worst forward combos from last season all feature Mike Hoffman. I'm assuming he didn't play with O'Reilly and Perron because in the 27 games and 41.2 minutes they saw together, they held an astounding 28.52 xGF%, did not score a single goal and averaged 3.12 GA/60.

Compared to Sanford-O'Reilly-Perron, which saw 32 games and 156 minutes, an xGF% of 50.34. The actual GF% was extremely lacklustre at 40% and I agree it wasn't working, but anyone who thinks Hoffman was the solution is being misled by what he can do on the PP. On the PP, it's significantly easier to maintain the puck, meaning Hoffman doesn't need to be relied on to help, and Hoffman can just stand there and be the trigger man. If Hoffman has to do anything but shoot you're gonna be disappointed. Especially with ROR, who started only 49% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Hoffman (biggest ozone start% of the team) started 65% of his shifts in the ozone.

It's odd you hated Hoffman with Schenn because ironically Perron-Schenn-Hoffman was the best line that featured Mike on it.

In the end, I cannot see Hoffman wanting to play for Berube ever again. Not sure why Armstrong thought he'd be a good addition given that.

Side Note: Krug was also extremely misused. He went from starting 70% of his shifts in the ozone in Boston (and still having mediocre 5on5 offensive production for a pure offensive defensemen) to just 50%.

 

[Louie the Blue]

I would honestly move on from Berube and look for a coach that can implement a system that can actually go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league. It's pretty obvious that Berube still believes in a hard forecheck, wearing down the opposition, and dump and chase tactics. Someone needs to tell Berube that you can have an effective forecheck without having to throw a hit. The Avs made it hell for our D to move the puck out and they did it with minimal physicality. I'm glad we won the Cup two years ago with this playstyle because that was likely the last year a team with this type of playstyle will win the Cup. The Kings are no longer the big bad bullies, they've injected their lineup with a ton of speed and it was on display in the games we played against them. They were fast as hell and will probably start ascending back to the top as they slowly inject their lineup with their youth.

If your team isn't fast, then you have to move the puck fast. The Blues can't do either and unless that changes quick, they're basically securing a one way ticket to the bottom of the league.

I don’t think any coach would’ve been able to realistically lead the team to a different outcome vs the Avs.

There are fundamental roster structure flaws that were greatly exposed due to injuries.

What it seems like is asking for a change in roster personnel. Do you think Berube has his players grind the other team down because of his system or because of talent? I’m going with the latter.

Under Berube, a player finished above PPG for the first time in almost 20 years. I don’t think he stymies offensive development.

 

[BlueMed]

I don’t think any coach would’ve been able to realistically lead the team to a different outcome vs the Avs.

There are fundamental roster structure flaws that were greatly exposed due to injuries.

What it seems like is asking for a change in roster personnel. Do you think Berube has his players grind the other team down because of his system or because of talent? I’m going with the latter.

Under Berube, a player finished above PPG for the first time in almost 20 years. I don’t think he stymies offensive development.

He does though. Any coach who religiously implements a "dump and chase" system will hinder a player's ability to use his speed and skill off the rush. The Blues have more talent than Berube gives credit for, and it's time the Blues get more top 6 talent in the off season (Eichel) and/or get a coach who can utilize talent better.

 

[Oberyn]

I don’t think any coach would’ve been able to realistically lead the team to a different outcome vs the Avs.

There are fundamental roster structure flaws that were greatly exposed due to injuries.

What it seems like is asking for a change in roster personnel. Do you think Berube has his players grind the other team down because of his system or because of talent? I’m going with the latter.

Under Berube, a player finished above PPG for the first time in almost 20 years. I don’t think he stymies offensive development.

Berube made zero adjustments against the Avs. We basically saw four of the same games where the Blues got severely outplayed, outshot, and outchanced. The Avs had the majority of puck possession and completely stymied the Blues breakouts and transitions. There is definitely a disparity in talent and we were missing our best scorer, but it should not have been that lopsided.

The Blues don't lack skill. They certainly lack footspeed but the team is not devoid of talent. ROR, Perron, Schenn, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Hoffman, Thomas, and Kyrou are all skilled players. The latter half of these players do not thrive at dump and chase hockey. I understand why Berube utilized his grinding playstyle and even credit that playstyle to our Cup victory, but it is not a playstyle that will be effective moving forward. Even this season, Berube should have recognized where the league was trending towards. We add Mike Hoffman, and rely on Kyrou/Thomas to take a big step, but choose to try to wear opponents down rather than outskate and outplay them.

I don't think Berube knows any other system than just grinding the opponents down and getting pucks deep. He doesn't trust players like Kyrou/Hoffman due to the higher risk in their plays, and instead relies on players that will just dump the puck and make the safe play. Schenn/Schwartz were 2nd/3rd in TOI among forwards but basically invisible. Tyler f***ing Bozak was 5th in TOI over Hoffman/Kyrou/Thomas. I realize Thomas did not have a good season but I felt he played pretty well in game four and would honestly bank on him pulling something out of his hat rather than watching Bozak chip and chase for the 43rd time in a row. Like why is Bozak on the 1st PP? Perron is out and so you need to obviously fill his spot, so why does Berube choose an offensively challenged player like Bozak instead of someone who can actually be a threat like Kyrou? The same Kyrou that was arguably our most dangerous forward throughout the series. It's mind-boggling.

There are issues with the Blues current roster personnel, I completely agree, but Berube is not utilizing a system that gets the most out of his offense. We iced arguably one of our best top nines in recent years and yet we floundered for the majority of the season. Why is this team so piss poor at D zone breakouts? Why is this team constantly just chipping pucks off the glass or rimming it along the boards? When I watched the Avs, I marveled at their ability to move the puck up the ice. It seemed that someone was always open to get the puck, and Avs players actually took a split second to think before making a crisp pass to their teammate. When a Blues player gets the puck, the first thought that hits their mind is to dump or chip it because that's what has been ingrained in their head. We do need some upgrades in our roster but I fear that Berube will not make use of them properly even if we were to get them.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Mikkola and Walman both need to be playing above Scandella...it's simply time. Other than that, I'm hoping against all hope that Krug is headed to Seattle, and at the very least, we upgrade the #1LW, #1LD and #3RD spots.

We have plenty of depth and just need guys to come back healthy (Parayko, Faulk, Bort) or bounce back (Schenn, Tarasenko and...yes, Schwartz).

Why is it time? Neither is close to as effective as Scandella.

 

[mk80]

Very interesting interview from Perron. Seemingly confirms he was vaccinated (along with Walker) and got covid. Also some other really interesting statements, obviously frustrated he couldn't play

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Perron, RoR, Parayko, Kyrou, Binnington, and Faulk are the only players who should be 100% safe this offseason from moving.

Tarasenko, Schenn, Kostin, and Thomas are in the group of we should keep Unless a good deal comes along.

Everyone else should be available for upgrades if possible.

 

[BlueMed]

Berube made zero adjustments against the Avs. We basically saw four of the same games where the Blues got severely outplayed, outshot, and outchanced. The Avs had the majority of puck possession and completely stymied the Blues breakouts and transitions. There is definitely a disparity in talent and we were missing our best scorer, but it should not have been that lopsided.

The Blues don't lack skill. They certainly lack footspeed but the team is not devoid of talent. ROR, Perron, Schenn, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Hoffman, Thomas, and Kyrou are all skilled players. The latter half of these players do not thrive at dump and chase hockey. I understand why Berube utilized his grinding playstyle and even credit that playstyle to our Cup victory, but it is not a playstyle that will be effective moving forward. Even this season, Berube should have recognized where the league was trending towards. We add Mike Hoffman, and rely on Kyrou/Thomas to take a big step, but choose to try to wear opponents down rather than outskate and outplay them.

I don't think Berube knows any other system than just grinding the opponents down and getting pucks deep. He doesn't trust players like Kyrou/Hoffman due to the higher risk in their plays, and instead relies on players that will just dump the puck and make the safe play. Schenn/Schwartz were 2nd/3rd in TOI among forwards but basically invisible. Tyler f***ing Bozak was 5th in TOI over Hoffman/Kyrou/Thomas. I realize Thomas did not have a good season but I felt he played pretty well in game four and would honestly bank on him pulling something out of his hat rather than watching Bozak chip and chase for the 43rd time in a row. Like why is Bozak on the 1st PP? Perron is out and so you need to obviously fill his spot, so why does Berube choose an offensively challenged player like Bozak instead of someone who can actually be a threat like Kyrou? The same Kyrou that was arguably our most dangerous forward throughout the series. It's mind-boggling.

There are issues with the Blues current roster personnel, I completely agree, but Berube is not utilizing a system that gets the most out of his offense. We iced arguably one of our best top nines in recent years and yet we floundered for the majority of the season. Why is this team so piss poor at D zone breakouts? Why is this team constantly just chipping pucks off the glass or rimming it along the boards? When I watched the Avs, I marveled at their ability to move the puck up the ice. It seemed that someone was always open to get the puck, and Avs players actually took a split second to think before making a crisp pass to their teammate. When a Blues player gets the puck, the first thought that hits their mind is to dump or chip it because that's what has been ingrained in their head. We do need some upgrades in our roster but I fear that Berube will not make use of them properly even if we were to get them.

Yes. This 100%.

I think Berube is a great motivator but we need a coach who can get more of the talent on this roster. If the Blues get bounced in the first round or second round next year, he will be on the hot seat.

 

[execwrite1]

Perron, RoR, Parayko, Kyrou, Binnington, and Faulk are the only players who should be 100% safe this offseason from moving.

Tarasenko, Schenn, Kostin, and Thomas are in the group of we should keep Unless a good deal comes along.

Everyone else should be available for upgrades if possible.

Agree 100%. That's the right core to prioritize for now.

But ... this team isn't winning anything for the next five years. I fear the Blues are sliding back into the trap of making the playoffs as a lower seed team and losing out early on.

Thus producing mid-range draft picks each season and creating a cycle of mediocrity. Tanking would be the better way to go but that's most unpleasant.

As the list above shows, there are only two core d-men. This has to be the priority going forward thru the draft and free agency and trades.

There isn't really much to trade so it's going to have to be freeing up cap space to find some free agent d-men.

D-Man FA List

19. ADAM LARSSON, D, 28
2020-21 cap hit: $4,166,666
Gradually, Larsson has realized his promise as a defensive defenseman, and he’s having the best season of his career, playing an ornery game, sacrificing his body. The Oilers might be best off keeping him. He’s become an important player for them.
20. DAVID SAVARD, D, 30
2020-21 cap hit: $4,250,000
He’s big, rugged, shoots right-handed and is generally underrated as a shutdown defenseman, having spent his career in a relatively small market before Columbus dealt him to Tampa Bay at the deadline. Pretty much every team needs a guy like Savard.
21. ALEC MARTINEZ, D, 34
2020-21 cap hit: $4,000,000
Wow. What a year. Martinez, who has profiled as more of a two-way defenseman for most of his career, is producing by far the best offensive numbers of his career just in time for a new contract. A personal-best season at 34 makes him a risky signing if any suitor is banking on repeat numbers.
22. ALEX GOLIGOSKI, D, 35
2020-21 cap hit: $5,475,000
He’s durable, he plays 22 minutes a night, he moves the puck pretty well…he’s just a safe veteran pickup at this stage of his career, even if it’s on a short-term deal.
23. MIKE REILLY, D, 28
2020-21 cap hit: $1,500,000
Reilly was a bright spot on a rebuilding Ottawa Senators team this season, forming a net-positive pair with rookie Artem Zub, and Reilly has already proven extremely useful moving the puck on Boston’s left side. He felt more like a fringe NHLer a few years ago but has established himself as a legitimate UFA target.
27. JAMIE OLEKSIAK, D, 28
2020-21 cap hit: $2,137,500
Sometimes big defensemen take longer to find themselves in the NHL, and Oleksiak, who carries first-round draft pedigree, fits the bill. He’s much improved in his second stint with Dallas, using his strength effectively while also showcasing good mobility for a man his size.
28. BRANDON MONTOUR, D, 27
2020-21 cap hit: $3,850,000
The Buffalo factor hurt his numbers in recent seasons, but he was hyped as a good puck-moving prospect in his Anaheim days, and his season-ending stint in Florida gives him a chance to boost his value before going to market. Plenty of teams could use a slick puck-mover on the right side, and he’ll come far cheaper than someone like Barrie.
29. RYAN MURRAY, D, 27
2020-21 cap hit: $4,700,000
Tough year for all Devils players, but Murray is still relatively young for a UFA, has a recent history as a respectable defensive defenseman and can skate. On a better team, he could be a handy middle-pair option.

DO NOT trade away draft picks Doug.

 

[The Note]

I think the best hope the Blues have is a talented player shakes loose from some under-performing team (Calgary, Vancouver, Buffalo, Edmonton, etc.) ala when we traded Oshie to Washington. I know some on here might hate it, but someone like Gaudreau would be someone I would 100% take a flier on out of Calgary. But I think (someone like Gaudreau, if not him specifically) being available in an effort to change the culture of another team presents the best opportunity for the Blues to: land a talented player and "win" the trade.

 

[Prosaic]

One UFA the Blues should be all in on, is Mike Reilly. He's criminally underrated, and he is exactly what the blue line needs.


Via NST, at 5on5 since 2018-19 he's 34th in xGF% among all defensemen (53.52). He's really good at making crisp, clean passes up the ice in transition and would help the Blues cleanly exit the zone and create offense. He's also a fantastic play driver from the Blue line. He has great instincts and is really smart with the puck. Another plus is his skating and mobility, something the Blues need if they wanna compete. Not the flashiest guy, not the hardest shot, but when he is on the ice, his team is always outperforming the other. These are the things the Blues lost big time in Pietrangelo and while Mike Reilly isn't Alex Pietrangelo he certainly makes up for that loss more than any other UFA defensemen.

The best part is his contract projection according to EV (they're historically really accurate too) is 3 years x 3.8M. For a 28 year old defensemen with outstanding underlying numbers playing mostly on Montreal and Ottawa the past couple seasons, I think it's an excellent under the radar move for the Blues to make.

I only really say this because DA says he still thinks the window is open to win (which then makes me wonder why you wouldn't do what's necessary to keep your best player, but whatever logic is for idiots I guess).

 

[Blueline2757]

Does this mean no more Panger for Blues broadcasts?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Does this mean no more Panger for Blues broadcasts?

He's deserving of a national gig. This is interesting news. Its possible its just a smaller role that won't prevent him from being the Blues color commentary, but if he's moving on I wonder who will replace him.

 

[JoshFromMO]

The Hoffman saga continues

 

[Brian39]

Does this mean no more Panger for Blues broadcasts?

Panger has worked for NBC, Sportsnet and the NHL Network throughout his time as a color guy with us. A lot of color guys also have contracts with national providers, so this doesn't mean he is done with Blues broadcasts. Keith Jones has continued doing Flyers broadcasts during his time with NBCSN.

I don't know how often hockey is going to be on TNT or what role Pang was signed to do for them. It might be the end of his time with us if they have him doing 4+ broadcasts per week, but it is more likely that he will just be on the air once or twice a week with them and continues working for us.

 

[Brian39]

So, according to EV, Hoffmans most common line mates were Trochek and Connolly last season. His next most common line mates were Toninato and Vatrano and then Barkov and Huberdeau. Then Connolly and Boyle. Then Malgin and Vatrano. He never actually played with Connolly and Vatrano and that's probably because none of them are centers. Just to add context, he played 150 minutes with Connolly and Trochek and about 67 minutes with Malgin and Vatrano.

Considering Trochek averages 56 points in an 82 game season, he's a quality #2 center based on point production.

Well, looking at the Relative numbers from this season alone:

CF%Rel: Sanford -1.53, Hoffman -3.46
xGF%Rel: Sanford -0.26, Hoffman -4.94
GF%Rel: Sanford -7.46, 1.98
HDCF%Rel: Sanford 2.48, Hoffman -4.35

I'm not arguing Sanford is good. I agree he's carried by his line mates. But, the Blues 3 worst forward combos from last season all feature Mike Hoffman. I'm assuming he didn't play with O'Reilly and Perron because in the 27 games and 41.2 minutes they saw together, they held an astounding 28.52 xGF%, did not score a single goal and averaged 3.12 GA/60.

Compared to Sanford-O'Reilly-Perron, which saw 32 games and 156 minutes, an xGF% of 50.34. The actual GF% was extremely lacklustre at 40% and I agree it wasn't working, but anyone who thinks Hoffman was the solution is being misled by what he can do on the PP. On the PP, it's significantly easier to maintain the puck, meaning Hoffman doesn't need to be relied on to help, and Hoffman can just stand there and be the trigger man. If Hoffman has to do anything but shoot you're gonna be disappointed. Especially with ROR, who started only 49% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Hoffman (biggest ozone start% of the team) started 65% of his shifts in the ozone.

It's odd you hated Hoffman with Schenn because ironically Perron-Schenn-Hoffman was the best line that featured Mike on it.

In the end, I cannot see Hoffman wanting to play for Berube ever again. Not sure why Armstrong thought he'd be a good addition given that.

Side Note: Krug was also extremely misused. He went from starting 70% of his shifts in the ozone in Boston (and still having mediocre 5on5 offensive production for a pure offensive defensemen) to just 50%.

I was using Natural Stat Trick to find overall time per player. I have found EV's line tool wildly inaccurate in the past so I stopped using it a while ago. I absolutely can't speak to the quality of it lately. Sorry, I should have been more clear.

Hoffman played 299 minutes with Vatrano, 244 with Connolly, and then 220 with Trocheck. Hoffman played more minutes centered by Trochek, Boyle and Toninanto than he did with Barkov. My only point there was that his role couldn't have been much further from the role Verhague is playing this year and it isn't at all true to say they just swapped out Hoffman for Verhague and turned things around.

NST had the 68/90/57 line with an xGF% of 39 (not 28%). Corsi and Fenwick were both 53% and total expected goals were a total of 1.4 against to .9 for. They "averaged" 2.9 GA per 60 getting sub-.890 SV%, so their performance isn't nearly as bad as you are suggesting. That line started off together exactly 1 time this season and the majority of their time together was overlapping shifts and situational deployment for 1 or 2 shifts a night. No NHL coach should be making a determination that guys can't play together based on a -2 goal differential accrued over less than 50 minutes spread across 56 games. The trio wasn't great together in very limited usage, but they were absolutely not given an actual look together as a line.

Hoffman and Schenn were together for 181 total minutes and were below 40% in every underlying and expected metric. Adding Perron brought their numbers towards respectability (still below average) but it doesn't change my opinion that Hoff and Schenn fit poorly together. The 47 minutes Perron/Hoffman played together without Schenn saw the pair put up remarkably good numbers across the board. Hoff/Perron were a well above average duo together without Schenn and a below average line with Schenn. It seems like Hoff/Perron had good chemistry that offset the brutal chemistry between Schenn and Hoffman. The Blais-Thomas-Hoffman line was absolutely better than the Hoffman-Schenn-Perron line as well.

I've gotten pretty deep into the weeds and I think we largely agree that Hoffman is not a great 5 on 5 player.

 

[simon IC]

Blues 2021 Off-Season thread is up. 2021 Offseason Discussion