2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Generic Thread Titles Be Damned (Part III)

[joe galiba]

I wasn't trying to say that a 1-0 shutout is the only way a goalie can steal a game. My point is that there is so much randomness in hockey and plays where a goalie had absolutely no chance that you can't say with any confidence that a goalie played any better in a game where he got a shutout than one where he allowed one. Absent watching all of a goalies shutouts and 1 goal games to analyze it, I don't know how you can quantify/judge when a goalie stole a game.

Most our shutouts last year were games that we scored 3+ goals and absolutely would have won if our goalie had allowed 1 or 2 goals. The single 1-0 game was a night where we absolutely throttled the other team but couldn't solve Kuemper. I remember that game and it is absolutely not one where I would say that the goalie stole it.

My point wasn't that you have to look for 1-0 games to find steals, but that relying on the shutout stat to define steals isn't useful.

It is this and more
one goalie could face 15 high danger chances and give up no goals, but each and every shot could have hit him in the gut
another goalie could give up 4 goals from less dangerous spots on the ice, but it could be perfect shots in a 4" area of the corner that he had no chance on
the second goalie could have played a far superior game to the first goalie and this can only be truly judged by watching

 

[WeWentBlues]

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Sounds like Dunn might be out a while.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Sounds like Dunn might be out a while.

And/or Parayko.

Only other defenseman in the organization that has a professional contract that is healthy is Tyler Tucker. So many injuries this year.

 

[WeWentBlues]

And/or Parayko.

Only other defenseman in the organization that has a professional contract that is healthy is Tyler Tucker. So many injuries this year.

EDIT. Maybe just Dunn

 

[Xerloris]

I wasn't trying to say that a 1-0 shutout is the only way a goalie can steal a game. My point is that there is so much randomness in hockey and plays where a goalie had absolutely no chance that you can't say with any confidence that a goalie played any better in a game where he got a shutout than one where he allowed one. Absent watching all of a goalies shutouts and 1 goal games to analyze it, I don't know how you can quantify/judge when a goalie stole a game.

Most our shutouts last year were games that we scored 3+ goals and absolutely would have won if our goalie had allowed 1 or 2 goals. The single 1-0 game was a night where we absolutely throttled the other team but couldn't solve Kuemper. I remember that game and it is absolutely not one where I would say that the goalie stole it.

My point wasn't that you have to look for 1-0 games to find steals, but that relying on the shutout stat to define steals isn't useful.

I always like to root for a shutout because it helps the stat sheet but truth the truth is a win is a win. I do believe that Binnington stole the Vegas game and the Avs game on Saturday. They weren't pretty wins but he made some really huge saves that without them the games would have been lopsided blowouts for the bad guys.

 

[Renard]

I hope we get to see Reinke in a game or two.

He looked like a real find, but then had a bad training camp followed by an undistinguished season in the minors last year.

 

[MissouriMook]

I hope we get to see Reinke in a game or two.

He looked like a real find, but then had a bad training camp followed by an undistinguished season in the minors last year.

His offensive numbers look much improved this season and he is putting up points pretty consistently. His plus/minus is awful, though, but it appears he is likely being used as their #1 D-man, which would be a stretch for him in just about any league. If he is able to take anyone's job next season it will be Bortuzzo's.

 

[simon IC]

His offensive numbers look much improved this season and he is putting up points pretty consistently. His plus/minus is awful, though, but it appears he is likely being used as their #1 D-man, which would be a stretch for him in just about any league. If he is able to take anyone's job next season it will be Bortuzzo's.

Don't we have enough small defensemen that need to be sheltered? I am fully aware of Bortuzzo's limitations, but I do think he brings an element we lack. He is also pretty good on the PK, which is another area that needs help. I am not confident in Reinke's ability to contribute there. All in all, I'm not really enthusiastic about the idea of Reinke replacing Bortuzzo.

 

[MissouriMook]

Don't we have enough small defensemen that need to be sheltered? I am fully aware of Bortuzzo's limitations, but I do think he brings an element we lack. He is also pretty good on the PK, which is another area that needs help. I am not confident in Reinke's ability to contribute there. All in all, I'm not really enthusiastic about the idea of Reinke replacing Bortuzzo.

I'm not saying I want him to replace Bortuzzo, just the fact that it appears to be his only path to the NHL on this club. He's not stealing a job from Faulk or Parayko.

 

[BlueDream]

Reinke is 25, if the Blues had any confidence in him they would have already found a way to get him in more than 1 game in the NHL.

If he suits up for us, that isn’t a good thing. He can’t defend - at least not at the NHL level.

 

[Renard]

Don't we have enough small defensemen that need to be sheltered? I am fully aware of Bortuzzo's limitations, but I do think he brings an element we lack. He is also pretty good on the PK, which is another area that needs help. I am not confident in Reinke's ability to contribute there. All in all, I'm not really enthusiastic about the idea of Reinke replacing Bortuzzo.

Can't we wait to see him in action before we dismiss him?

 

[Renard]

On Minnesota' s second goal last night, Binnington made a nice save at the post, but the rebound squirted thru the crease and went right to a Minnesota player, who had a mostly open net to shoot the puck in.

Standing in the crease, taking it all in, with his stick off the ice, was Scandella. The rebound went right past him.

This reminded me of what Barclay Plager used to tell Blues goalies - you make the first save and we will clear the rebound.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Man now I'm mad after watching the game last night. How many points did we fritter away earlier in the year b/c Hoffman wasn't GLUED to that faceoff dot on the PP1.....simply inexcusable coaching. It's like in baseball - I don't care how shitty an outfielder or 1st baseman is, if they can hit over .300 with power, you put em in the lineup every night and let the chips fall where they may. Hoffman should have as many PP minutes as Perron/ROR/Krug FFS.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Man now I'm mad after watching the game last night. How many points did we fritter away earlier in the year b/c Hoffman wasn't GLUED to that faceoff dot on the PP1.....simply inexcusable coaching. It's like in baseball - I don't care how shitty an outfielder or 1st baseman is, if they can hit over .300 with power, you put em in the lineup every night and let the chips fall where they may. Hoffman should have as many PP minutes as Perron/ROR/Krug FFS.

Don't look now, we're 10th in the league on the PP.

 

[Brian39]

Don't look now, we're 10th in the league on the PP.

Almost exclusively because we have gone a whopping 43.5% in the last 3 weeks. We were 24th prior to the PP catching fire in the past 3 weeks. Know how we caught fire? 10 PP goals scored by the following players:

Hoffman has 5. Tarasenko, Schwartz, Dunn, Bozak and Barby each have 1. That's all the goals.

Exactly 1 of those players is top 5 on our team in PP TOI per game (Tarasenko). Our 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th most used PP guys (by a per game basis) have 0 goals in this 8 game stretch that has dragged our PP from 24th to 10th. The recent improvement of the PP is a scathing indictment of whatever the hell we were trying to do for the first 3 months of the season. The improvement of the PP has come almost exclusively from guys deemed not appropriate for the top unit.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Almost exclusively because we have gone a whopping 43.5% in the last 3 weeks. We were 24th prior to the PP catching fire in the past 3 weeks. Know how we caught fire? 10 PP goals scored by the following players:

Hoffman has 5. Tarasenko, Schwartz, Dunn, Bozak and Barby each have 1. That's all the goals.

Exactly 1 of those players is top 5 on our team in PP TOI per game (Tarasenko). Our 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th most used PP guys (by a per game basis) have 0 goals in this 8 game stretch that has dragged our PP from 24th to 10th. The recent improvement of the PP is a scathing indictment of whatever the hell we were trying to do for the first 3 months of the season. The improvement of the PP has come almost exclusively from guys deemed not appropriate for the top unit.

Oh, trust me, I know, it was more of a joke statement.

 

[Xerloris]

Man now I'm mad after watching the game last night. How many points did we fritter away earlier in the year b/c Hoffman wasn't GLUED to that faceoff dot on the PP1.....simply inexcusable coaching. It's like in baseball - I don't care how shitty an outfielder or 1st baseman is, if they can hit over .300 with power, you put em in the lineup every night and let the chips fall where they may. Hoffman should have as many PP minutes as Perron/ROR/Krug FFS.

I would say at least 10 points and that's just a guesstimate based on how many times I was pissed off about using Hoffman wrong.

 

[Prosaic]

Notable Statistics as the Blues look poised to claim the final spot with a mere 8 games remaining:

All via NST:

Team-Based Stats (5 on 5)
46.75 xGF%, 24th in NHL, 6th in West
1.95 xGF/60, 29th in NHL, 8th in West
2.22 xGA/60, 17th in NHL, 3rd in West
8.3 HDCF/60, 30th in NHL, 8th in West
10.46 HDCA/60, 21st in NHL, 4th in West
44.25 HDCF%, 29th in NHL, 8th in West

Player-Based Stats (5 on 5) - I'm only including players who've suited up for at least 10 games.
Only 3 players have an xGF% above 50%, those being
Mackenzie MacEachern 51.49
Jaden Schwartz 50.72
Robert Bortuzzo 50.18

Rounding out the top 5
Jordan Kyrou 49.95
Robert Thomas 49.72

The 5 worst
Dakota Joshua 35.02
Carl Gunnarsson 39.20
Mike Hoffman 42.22
Vladimir Tarasenko 42.91
Niko Mikkola 44.15

Top 5 Points/60
Jordan Kyrou 2.41
Robert Thomas 2.3
Sammy Blais 2.16
Ryan O'Reilly 1.99
David Perron 1.9

Goaltending (Minimum 500 Minutes Played)
Jordan Binnington ranks 26th in GSAA/60 (0.09) and Ville Husso ranks 58th (-0.73) (63 Goalies Total)
Binningtons 5on5 SV% ranks 21st (.921), Husso's ranks 58th (.892)

 

[Renard]

Kyrou has made some brillant passes recently.

I knew he was fast and could score goals, but I didn't expect playmaking.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Kyrou has made some brillant passes recently.

I knew he was fast and could score goals, but I didn't expect playmaking.

You rarely see it bc he would rather skate in circles looking for his shot than feed teammates.

 

[MissouriMook]

What if Berube and Army are playing 4D chess with Ron Francis hoping he sees Sanford’s utilization but doesn’t really watch the tape very closely? That’s the only explanation I can come up with as to why he’s getting these late game, high leverage minutes.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Hey boys how has schenn looked this season?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Kyrou has made some brillant passes recently.

I knew he was fast and could score goals, but I didn't expect playmaking.

That's actually what he's best at, other than his skating. He's really hasn't been much of a goalscorer until recently.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Hey boys how has schenn looked this season?

Excellent. If we hadn't subsequently made that steal of an O'Reilly trade, it's clear that the trade for Schenn was our best trade in a while.