Prospect Info: 2020 1st Rd Selection - #15 OA - LW Rodion Amirov (RUS) - 6'0", 177lbs Part II

[TheBigFour]

He's gonna make schneider and guhle look silly at the world juniors.

 

[pylon17]

Username aside, he's right. We picked the player that we felt was the best at that spot. What he's done post draft, is increase his stock. So far, it's been the right pick. Always, always draft for BPA.

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

Why a defenseman only?

 

[supermann_98]

He's gonna make schneider and guhle look silly at the world juniors.

 

[supermann_98]

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

Maybe, maybe not ... who's to say that one Dman that ends up better than Amirov isn't Niemela or Villeneuve or Rindell? Who's to say Amirov doesn't end up being the best player in the draft? Or comparatively a complete bust? Nothing Dubas and his staff have done in terms of drafting makes me think someone else could do a better job.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

There may even be forwards selected after Amirov that become better than him. He might even be better than some of the players chosen before him.

Crazy, right?

 

[kb]

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

Why only a defenceman? Ridiculous.

 

[pylon17]

Why a defenseman only?

Because a number one defenseman is the one thing that we lack? And they are incredibly difficult to find?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Because a number one defenseman is the one thing that we lack? And they are incredibly difficult to find?

then why do you expect Dubas to find one with the #15 pick and won't accept anything else?

 

[Zybalto]

You ALWAYS draft the best player available in the 1st round. If Amirov was Canadian, he would be playing in the CHL next year and likely the AHL after that. I see no issue with him signing a 2 year extension in the KHL. If anything, he'll be playing against better competition for the next two years.

He's not a top 3 pick. He was picked 15th. 15th overall typically don't just jump straight into the NHL.

Yea, as long as he's developing against men in the KHL/AHL, I'm not sure what the downside is.

I do know a certain 18 year old 53rd overall pick jumped right into the NHL playoffs last season though.

 

[Fogelhund]

Because a number one defenseman is the one thing that we lack? And they are incredibly difficult to find?

Somehow you think a surefire #1 D is left at the 15th overall pick? While #1D do get picked at that spot, and later, they are quite unpredictable, and you NEVER make picks for needs. NEVER. You pick the best player available, and that's it. If the best player at #15, was viewed to be a D man, that is whom they would have picked, it wasn't.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Ohhhh he’s elusive quick. Lots of skill in that little clip actually. Doesn’t matter where he is he will play. The pauses,the fakes,the edges,the stick handling, quickness. Just everything in there

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I'm not opposed to skill or Euros in fact radulov is one of my favorite players as is barkov I thought rodion was more ready for the NHL so it's kind of disappointing that he's going to sign an extension in the KHL. I just find it hard to believe that there won't be a single defenseman drafted after rodion that will not eventually be the better player and that is dubas' job to find that player

This draft was considered very weak for dmen and only 2 were considered potential top pairing guys and that was Sanderson and Drysdale. So why take a chance on a guy at #15 who is a long shot to be a top pairing guy if there is a forward that you think has a high ceiling and is more likely to reach it?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Imagine watching this as the coach and thinking "yeah we need to keep this guy on the fourth line".

No I can’t at all but he can build confidence there i guess.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Plus I don't know if having guys like Robertson go down for their D+2 is even good for the league. I can't imagine anyone enjoys watching a guy who's good enough for the NHL playoffs to sleepwalk to 1.5 goals/game against their team. Maybe it's interesting for a few games just to be able to settle the bar bet of how much an NHLer would score in the CHL. Imagine if Marner had to stay down for D+2 because of a lockout, is that a good situation for the CHL? He'd be PPG+ in the AHL as is, now put him in a league where his opponents are still his size.

Haha pee-wee

 

[KyleDubasBoyGeniua]

Because a number one defenseman is the one thing that we lack? And they are incredibly difficult to find?

And what #1 D was available at #15?

 

[ToneDog]

Not easy but it is possible to draft a #1dman 15OA and later. Leafs just have not been able to do it since the draft began.

Erik Karlsson

Defense -- shoots R
Born May 31 1990 -- Landsbro, Sweden
[30 yrs. ago]
Height 6.00 -- Weight 190 [183 cm/86 kg]
Drafted by Ottawa Senators
- round 1 #15 overall 2008 NHL Entry Draft

Shea Weber

Defense -- shoots R
Born Aug 14 1985 -- Sicamous, BC
[35 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 230 [193 cm/104 kg]
Drafted by Nashville Predators
- round 2 #49 overall 2003 NHL Entry Draft

 

[supermann_98]

Watching this again for the 2nd time as impressive as the shot was take a look at his edge work ... receiving the puck almost skating backwards, seamlessly turning around 180 into full stride without missing even a half-step, right into leaning into the beauty dagger top cheese

 

[IPS]

Not easy but it is possible to draft a #1dman 15OA and later. Leafs just have not been able to do it since the draft began.

Erik Karlsson

Defense -- shoots R
Born May 31 1990 -- Landsbro, Sweden
[30 yrs. ago]
Height 6.00 -- Weight 190 [183 cm/86 kg]
Drafted by Ottawa Senators
- round 1 #15 overall 2008 NHL Entry Draft

Shea Weber

Defense -- shoots R
Born Aug 14 1985 -- Sicamous, BC
[35 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 230 [193 cm/104 kg]
Drafted by Nashville Predators
- round 2 #49 overall 2003 NHL Entry Draft

Those are great examples but honestly I'd even take a Charlie McAvoy at this point...

 

[Menzinger]

Somehow you think a surefire #1 D is left at the 15th overall pick? While #1D do get picked at that spot, and later, they are quite unpredictable, and you NEVER make picks for needs. NEVER. You pick the best player available, and that's it. If the best player at #15, was viewed to be a D man, that is whom they would have picked, it wasn't.

Not to mention, its not out of the realm of possibility that Sandin ends up the better D man than any of the 2020 guys taken in the latter half of the 1st round

 

[JSn0w93]

Not to mention, its not out of the realm of possibility that Sandin ends up the better D man than any of the 2020 guys taken in the latter half of the 1st round

I wouldn't say that is a longshot at all. Very possible that is the case.

 

[hobarth]

We've had several picks in the last half of the first round or in the second round that were our first pick that year that would go higher in re-draft, not just the early picks.

Who are they?
Every team has prospects that they're excited about.
TO hasn't picked a fulltime NHLer since Matthews in 2016, Dermot is TO's only non 1st rounder since 2015 that actually made the show and he's on essentially a minimum salary. Sandin, Lily and Robertson are far from slam dunks at this point and presuming that TO's picks are more valuable than other team's prospects is far from any factually based conclusion.

 

[Morgs]

Who are they?
Every team has prospects that they're excited about.
TO hasn't picked a fulltime NHLer since Matthews in 2016, Dermot is TO's only non 1st rounder since 2015 that actually made the show and he's on essentially a minimum salary. Sandin, Lily and Robertson are far from slam dunks at this point and presuming that TO's picks are more valuable than other team's prospects is far from any factually based conclusion.

Firstly, it's far too early to judge these drafts as there's only been 13 guys to play over 10 games in 2018, and 3 guys in 2019. What we can do is look at these drafts and look at prospects who are not only trending well, but guys who have improved their stock.

The difference between us and other teams is that Dubas has been taking guys with legit chances to hit the 100GP mark since he became GM. Our prospects don't look like a special group (as they're later picks/not sexy names), but the sheer depth of guys that look like they have a potential NHL future is what makes our group very special. Especially when considering the fact that kind of floor means some of these guys have the ability to become stars. Getting those types of players with the earliest pick being 15 in the last three drafts? One draft not even having a 1st?

Guys that look like they can be NHL'ers in some capacity (* if they're over a 75% chance of hitting that 100GP mark):

2018 draft:
1st - Rasmus Sandin*
3rd - SDA
4th - Mac Hollowell
5th - Filip Kral
6th - Pontus Holmberg

(Stotts & Bouthillier look like busts, Kizimov is a long shot)
----
2019 draft:
2nd - Nick Robertson*
3rd - Mikko Kokkonen*
4th - Nick Abruzzese
4th - Mikhail Abramov
5th - Michael Koster
7th - Kalle Loponen

Every player from this draft looks like they have a chance at making the NHL based on their D0, D+1 and their current D+2.
The top 4 picks are all high probability guys who look like potential steals.
----
2020 draft:
1st - Rodion Amirov*
2nd - Roni Hirvonen
3rd - Topi Niemela

Others drafted (Ahktyamov, Villeneuve, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, Rindell, Miller, and Schingoethe) look like great picks but it's too early to tell.
Fusco & Tverberg need to step it up to be relevant imo.
----
This doesn't include guys like Liljegren, Korshkov, and Brooks who will all be NHL'ers in some capacity.

 

[hobarth]

Firstly, it's far too early to judge these drafts as there's only been 13 guys to play over 10 games in 2018, and 3 guys in 2019. What we can do is look at these drafts and look at prospects who are not only trending well, but guys who have improved their stock.

The difference between us and other teams is that Dubas has been taking guys with legit chances to hit the 100GP mark since he became GM. Our prospects don't look like a special group (as they're later picks/not sexy names), but the sheer depth of guys that look like they have a potential NHL future is what makes our group very special. Especially when considering the fact that kind of floor means some of these guys have the ability to become stars. Getting those types of players with the earliest pick being 15 in the last three drafts? One draft not even having a 1st?

Guys that look like they can be NHL'ers in some capacity (* if they're over a 75% chance of hitting that 100GP mark):

2018 draft:
1st - Rasmus Sandin*
3rd - SDA
4th - Mac Hollowell
5th - Filip Kral
6th - Pontus Holmberg

(Stotts & Bouthillier look like busts, Kizimov is a long shot)
----
2019 draft:
2nd - Nick Robertson*
3rd - Mikko Kokkonen*
4th - Nick Abruzzese
4th - Mikhail Abramov
5th - Michael Koster
7th - Kalle Loponen

Every player from this draft looks like they have a chance at making the NHL based on their D0, D+1 and their current D+2.
The top 4 picks are all high probability guys who look like potential steals.
----
2020 draft:
1st - Rodion Amirov*
2nd - Roni Hirvonen
3rd - Topi Niemela

Others drafted (Ahktyamov, Villeneuve, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, Rindell, Miller, and Schingoethe) look like great picks but it's too early to tell.
Fusco & Tverberg need to step it up to be relevant imo.
----
This doesn't include guys like Liljegren, Korshkov, and Brooks who will all be NHL'ers in some capacity.

Like I say, all fans are as excited as Leaf fans about their team's last 2 drafts, all teams are drafting BPAs, to say that TO has some sort of advantage is just purely magical thinking.

I can remember the 2015 draft, the general consensus was that TO did exceptionally well and all those choices would be on the Leafs in no time, so thought Leaf fans. All draft choices are prospects and just names until they actually make the NHL. In 2015 TO drafted 9 players, Marner and Dermott, who have actually made the NHL and Timashov who looks like he will bounce between the NHL and AHL or man the 4th line. The rest will probably never set foot in the NHL and some of those players were thought to be, by Leaf fans, destined to become Leafs or NHL players.

3 out of 9 players making the NHL out of any draft is exceptional, they all look good when first drafted, if they didn't you'd expect they wouldn't be drafted.

One of TO's greatest problems is that most of the choices are small, tiny both in height and weight so eventually they have to be top 2 line quality or they're not suited to any other forward position. The choices TO made this year look good but so did they all thru every draft since 2015.

 

[stickty111]

Who are they?
Every team has prospects that they're excited about.
TO hasn't picked a fulltime NHLer since Matthews in 2016, Dermot is TO's only non 1st rounder since 2015 that actually made the show and he's on essentially a minimum salary. Sandin, Lily and Robertson are far from slam dunks at this point and presuming that TO's picks are more valuable than other team's prospects is far from any factually based conclusion.

Morgs already listed the guys that would go higher in a redraft.
Nobody said the bolded so don't make up things. What is correct is a lot of Dubas picks are progressing really well. There is a difference between excitement and actual progress, and what we are excited about is many prospects are progressing.