Prospect Info: 2020 1st Rd Selection - #15 OA - LW Rodion Amirov (RUS) - 6'0", 177lbs Part II

[stickty111]

Because a number one defenseman is the one thing that we lack? And they are incredibly difficult to find?

Were there any no 1 d man we missed out on after 15?

 

[stickty111]

?

We hit on Sandin, and Robertson for sure, and there look to be more coming.

 

[stickty111]

Like I say, all fans are as excited as Leaf fans about their team's last 2 drafts, all teams are drafting BPAs, to say that TO has some sort of advantage is just purely magical thinking.

I can remember the 2015 draft, the general consensus was that TO did exceptionally well and all those choices would be on the Leafs in no time, so thought Leaf fans. All draft choices are prospects and just names until they actually make the NHL. In 2015 TO drafted 9 players, Marner and Dermott, who have actually made the NHL and Timashov who looks like he will bounce between the NHL and AHL or man the 4th line. The rest will probably never set foot in the NHL and some of those players were thought to be, by Leaf fans, destined to become Leafs or NHL players.

3 out of 9 players making the NHL out of any draft is exceptional, they all look good when first drafted, if they didn't you'd expect they wouldn't be drafted.

One of TO's greatest problems is that most of the choices are small, tiny both in height and weight so eventually they have to be top 2 line quality or they're not suited to any other forward position. The choices TO made this year look good but so did they all thru every draft since 2015.

1st paragraph is again you making things up. Nobody said Leafs have an advantage but your just misconstructing points. What isn't magical thinking is that the Leafs prospects are progressing well.

2nd paragraph is pure hyperbole from you but I guess I know the intentions now. Leafs critics thought Marner is an awful pick and won't amount to anything, so though Leafs critics. Funny thing is those Leafs fans were right based on what happened in D+1. Marner was going to be a star and we were right. Dermott will likely be an NHL player and we were right. We are getting an NHL player with at least 1-2 with those picks after and we were right.
Lots of teams fans think their prospects will be good, so stop labeling Leafs fans as the only ones.
Size is not a problem. How many of Hunter's size picks look anywhere close to NHL players? Maybe Korshkov but he is still a long shot. Also the 2016 and 2017 drafts were not good and Leafs fans already felt it wasn't going to get us much success.
So again, the reason Leafs fans are excited because the last three drafts look to be getting the team NHL players. It's not some made up excitement level.

 

[Morgs]

Like I say, all fans are as excited as Leaf fans about their team's last 2 drafts, all teams are drafting BPAs, to say that TO has some sort of advantage is just purely magical thinking.

I can remember the 2015 draft, the general consensus was that TO did exceptionally well and all those choices would be on the Leafs in no time, so thought Leaf fans. All draft choices are prospects and just names until they actually make the NHL. In 2015 TO drafted 9 players, Marner and Dermott, who have actually made the NHL and Timashov who looks like he will bounce between the NHL and AHL or man the 4th line. The rest will probably never set foot in the NHL and some of those players were thought to be, by Leaf fans, destined to become Leafs or NHL players.

3 out of 9 players making the NHL out of any draft is exceptional, they all look good when first drafted, if they didn't you'd expect they wouldn't be drafted.

One of TO's greatest problems is that most of the choices are small, tiny both in height and weight so eventually they have to be top 2 line quality or they're not suited to any other forward position. The choices TO made this year look good but so did they all thru every draft since 2015.

The reason we were so excited for the 2015 draft was because for the first time in basically ever the team took players that looked like they could be NHL players outside the 1st round.

What we didn't know was that looking back most of those guys had very little chance of ever being NHL players. You can see the same thing happen with virtually every other non-1st or 2nd round pick in 2016 and 2017 too.

It wasn't until Dubas took over in 2018 where he started taking guys with profiles that ACTUALLY turn into NHL players at high rates. It's why a guy like Bader's model is so high on the Leafs. It's not because we're brimming with stars (Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson/Amirov are all looking like potential top-line/top-pairing guys) but it's because we have about ~15 other guys that have legit NHL potential.

 

[hobarth]

The reason we were so excited for the 2015 draft was because for the first time in basically ever the team took players that looked like they could be NHL players outside the 1st round.

What we didn't know was that looking back most of those guys had very little chance of ever being NHL players. You can see the same thing happen with virtually every other non-1st or 2nd round pick in 2016 and 2017 too.

It wasn't until Dubas took over in 2018 where he started taking guys with profiles that ACTUALLY turn into NHL players at high rates. It's why a guy like Bader's model is so high on the Leafs. It's not because we're brimming with stars (Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson/Amirov are all looking like potential top-line/top-pairing guys) but it's because we have about ~15 other guys that have legit NHL potential.

Exactly, but why did they not end up being NHLers? Because then, in 2015, as lately, 2019 & 2020, pretty well all of the players are small so if they don't become top 6 forwards they don't make the NHL.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Exactly, but why did they not end up being NHLers? Because then, in 2015, as lately, 2019 & 2020, pretty well all of the players are small so if they don't become top 6 forwards they don't make the NHL.

Marner and Dermott became full-time NHLers. Timashov has played NHL games in the bottom-six, and he's tiny.

We also took:

Korostelev - 6 foot 1, 209 pounds
Desrocher - 6 foot 4, 206 pounds
Neilsen - 6 foot 4, 230 pounds

that year, and they've done nothing.

 

[Fogelhund]

From 2015, Bracco and Lindgren may yet see NHL games.

In 2016 they drafted big with many of the later picks... those guys won't ever see the NHL. But the first four picks just might... the first three already have.

2017 Big picks were all flops. Liljegren, Scott, McGregor are the only guys left on the radar.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Perhaps predictable, that young players with size advantages over their peers appear to be better hockey players than they really are at the time of the draft.

 

[TDotMassive]

Not easy but it is possible to draft a #1dman 15OA and later. Leafs just have not been able to do it since the draft began.

Erik Karlsson

Defense -- shoots R
Born May 31 1990 -- Landsbro, Sweden
[30 yrs. ago]
Height 6.00 -- Weight 190 [183 cm/86 kg]
Drafted by Ottawa Senators
- round 1 #15 overall 2008 NHL Entry Draft

Shea Weber

Defense -- shoots R
Born Aug 14 1985 -- Sicamous, BC
[35 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 230 [193 cm/104 kg]
Drafted by Nashville Predators
- round 2 #49 overall 2003 NHL Entry Draft

You can find an exception to anything... even exceptions.

 

[TDotMassive]

Who are they?
Every team has prospects that they're excited about.
TO hasn't picked a fulltime NHLer since Matthews in 2016, Dermot is TO's only non 1st rounder since 2015 that actually made the show and he's on essentially a minimum salary. Sandin, Lily and Robertson are far from slam dunks at this point and presuming that TO's picks are more valuable than other team's prospects is far from any factually based conclusion.

Sorry bro... Sandin and Robertson are already proven slam dunks, there is ZERO doubt they will be full time NHLers. Lily I agree is still up in the air... but those two are gold.

 

[X66]

Sorry bro... Sandin and Robertson are already proven slam dunks, there is ZERO doubt they will be full time NHLers. Lily I agree is still up in the air... but those two are gold.

And both Sandin and Robertson would be considered tier 1 trade assets, also something that none of Hunter's non lottery picks were...

 

[Morgs]

Exactly, but why did they not end up being NHLers? Because then, in 2015, as lately, 2019 & 2020, pretty well all of the players are small so if they don't become top 6 forwards they don't make the NHL.

What an awful, awful, take.

Enjoy living in the 1960's with when this was the thought process.

 

[supermann_98]

One of TO's greatest problems is that most of the choices are small, tiny both in height and weight so eventually they have to be top 2 line quality or they're not suited to any other forward position. The choices TO made this year look good but so did they all thru every draft since 2015.

The idea behind taking the smaller skilled player is that if one strikes gold (say Robertson for example) you can easily trade him for a 6'5 forth line plug, or you can move him into the top 6 and trade one of the top 6 incumbents for defensive help, or more 6'5 forth line plugs that you seem to want them to draft. Either way I'm on board the philosophy of taking skill/skating over size/truculence or positional need.

 

[hobarth]

Marner and Dermott became full-time NHLers. Timashov has played NHL games in the bottom-six, and he's tiny.

We also took:

Korostelev - 6 foot 1, 209 pounds
Desrocher - 6 foot 4, 206 pounds
Neilsen - 6 foot 4, 230 pounds

that year, and they've done nothing.

For me this whole discussion is about TO inability to draft well. 2015 was the year that Leaf fans were stoked about Hunter taking over the the drafting and the general consensus was that he did a great job like even tho Dubie traded out of the 1st round twice and somehow TO still ended up with who they wanted, Dermott. Dermott was who they wanted, 5 years later he's a marginal 3rd pairing d-man, awesome. In that same draft players like Hintz, Aho, Carlo, Cernak and Andersson were available which other teams missed as well but so did TO as has been happening consistently and that's the point.

Those 3 were bad choices, no doubts there, but TO is continuing along with questionable choices. Here a glimpse at Hirvonen TO's 2nd rounder from this year" Hirvonen isn’t particularly a fast straight-line skater and takes a bit longer to reach his top speed." This I got from Roni Hirvonen is the Leafs 12th ranked prospect. Pile this observation on top of his size at 5"9" 170 lbs and you almost have the same player as Bracco but without Bracco's offensive upside. Again TO traded down in the draft, making it even harder to do well.

Essentially the people who are doing the drafting, the scouts, are not doing a good job especially when in '15 a superior draft TO ended up with Marner, great choice that TO wanted to trade down from, but also Dermott and Timashov, a 3rd pairing d-man on a league minimum contract with minimal results and Timashov a part time 4th liner on teams that don't have 3rd/4th line depth. The current GM who is so fond of trading down for more choices should wake up and realize that TO's drafting ability isn't so good and maybe should trade up in the in the draft to give the scouts a better chance of succeeding. In '15 there was a good chance that TO would've picked Konecny who lead Philly in scoring this year but no TO traded out of that spot, stupid.

Those 3 choices that you mentioned were bad and no sane person should've drafted them because all 3 didn't have NHL speed to begin with.

 

[hobarth]

The idea behind taking the smaller skilled player is that if one strikes gold (say Robertson for example) you can easily trade him for a 6'5 forth line plug, or you can move him into the top 6 and trade one of the top 6 incumbents for defensive help, or more 6'5 forth line plugs that you seem to want them to draft. Either way I'm on board the philosophy of taking skill/skating over size/truculence or positional need.

Yes, that's the idea but it ain't working. TO drafted a guy in the '90s who scored 50 goals and he didn't even make the AHL, Robertson isn't a slam dunk.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

For me this whole discussion is about TO inability to draft well. 2015 was the year that Leaf fans were stoked about Hunter taking over the the drafting and the general consensus was that he did a great job like even tho Dubie traded out of the 1st round twice and somehow TO still ended up with who they wanted, Dermott. Dermott was who they wanted, 5 years later he's a marginal 3rd pairing d-man, awesome. In that same draft players like Hintz, Aho, Carlo, Cernak and Andersson were available which other teams missed as well but so did TO as has been happening consistently and that's the point.

Those 3 were bad choices, no doubts there, but TO is continuing along with questionable choices. Here a glimpse at Hirvonen TO's 2nd rounder from this year" Hirvonen isn’t particularly a fast straight-line skater and takes a bit longer to reach his top speed." This I got from Roni Hirvonen is the Leafs 12th ranked prospect. Pile this observation on top of his size at 5"9" 170 lbs and you almost have the same player as Bracco but without Bracco's offensive upside. Again TO traded down in the draft, making it even harder to do well.

Essentially the people who are doing the drafting, the scouts, are not doing a good job especially when in '15 a superior draft TO ended up with Marner, great choice that TO wanted to trade down from, but also Dermott and Timashov, a 3rd pairing d-man on a league minimum contract with minimal results and Timashov a part time 4th liner on teams that don't have 3rd/4th line depth. The current GM who is so fond of trading down for more choices should wake up and realize that TO's drafting ability isn't so good and maybe should trade up in the in the draft to give the scouts a better chance of succeeding. In '15 there was a good chance that TO would've picked Konecny who lead Philly in scoring this year but no TO traded out of that spot, stupid.

Those 3 choices that you mentioned were bad and no sane person should've drafted them because all 3 didn't have NHL speed to begin with.

No, they are not. Did you even read the article about Hirvonen?

"Hirvonen is certainly on the smaller end but doesn’t really share a similar toolbox to the stereotypical “undersized skilled forward”. Those players are very fast, strong offensively, weak defensively, and tend to shy away from high traffic areas. Hirvonen is the opposite of that."

"When his team is out of possession, Hirvonen is a relentless puck hunter. He anticipates the play extremely well, which leads to him generating takeaways. There really isn’t enough that can be said about his activeness, as he never seems to stop moving. In addition, Hirvonen isn’t shy to throw his body around to make a play and never backs down from a battle."

If your takeaway from the article is that he's just like Bracco, it's because you either didn't read it or you're being deliberately dishonest

 

[Morgs]

For me this whole discussion is about TO inability to draft well. 2015 was the year that Leaf fans were stoked about Hunter taking over the the drafting and the general consensus was that he did a great job like even tho Dubie traded out of the 1st round twice and somehow TO still ended up with who they wanted, Dermott. Dermott was who they wanted, 5 years later he's a marginal 3rd pairing d-man, awesome. In that same draft players like Hintz, Aho, Carlo, Cernak and Andersson were available which other teams missed as well but so did TO as has been happening consistently and that's the point.

Those 3 were bad choices, no doubts there, but TO is continuing along with questionable choices. Here a glimpse at Hirvonen TO's 2nd rounder from this year" Hirvonen isn’t particularly a fast straight-line skater and takes a bit longer to reach his top speed." This I got from Roni Hirvonen is the Leafs 12th ranked prospect. Pile this observation on top of his size at 5"9" 170 lbs and you almost have the same player as Bracco but without Bracco's offensive upside. Again TO traded down in the draft, making it even harder to do well.

Essentially the people who are doing the drafting, the scouts, are not doing a good job especially when in '15 a superior draft TO ended up with Marner, great choice that TO wanted to trade down from, but also Dermott and Timashov, a 3rd pairing d-man on a league minimum contract with minimal results and Timashov a part time 4th liner on teams that don't have 3rd/4th line depth. The current GM who is so fond of trading down for more choices should wake up and realize that TO's drafting ability isn't so good and maybe should trade up in the in the draft to give the scouts a better chance of succeeding. In '15 there was a good chance that TO would've picked Konecny who lead Philly in scoring this year but no TO traded out of that spot, stupid.

Those 3 choices that you mentioned were bad and no sane person should've drafted them because all 3 didn't have NHL speed to begin with.

A) Dermott is not a "marginal 3rd pairing defenseman". He's the best 3rd pairing defenseman in hockey, and clearly has more to offer.

B) I've read multiple times Dubas' choice was Aho, but Hunter wanted Dermott and we got Dermott because he was the final deciding factor. Andersson would have been a marginally better choice, but I'd take Dermott easily over any of Carlo, Cernak, and Hintz.

C) Hirvonen was a fine 2nd round choice, and just because you took one quote from a website where you're ignoring most and describing him (incorrectly) doesn't mean you have a case that he was a bad choice. It's too early to tell. Stop worrying about NHL players size, it's not 1960.

D) Stop bringing up the 2015 draft, it was a fine draft as we managed to hit on our high % picks (1st/2nd), but the excitement was solely due to a regime change where we stopped taking exclusively low-skill, decent-floor guys. Go back and look at the difference between 2008-2014 (Burke/Nonis) and 2015 outside the top-10. It was like a weight was lifted off most Leaf fans backs as some of these guys drafted outside the top-10 actually looked like they COULD be something. We were wrong, especially about Hunter (and lots of us could see it after 2016) but we took a step in the right direction. Since 2018 by virtually every model/prospect expert we've become easily a top-5 organization at drafting- but that's all speculation until about 3-5 years after a draft when you can actually see what these players will become. For now, you need to look at these players as assets, and see that almost every pick in the Dubas era has either kept their stock or improved it.

 

[stickty111]

For me this whole discussion is about TO inability to draft well. 2015 was the year that Leaf fans were stoked about Hunter taking over the the drafting and the general consensus was that he did a great job like even tho Dubie traded out of the 1st round twice and somehow TO still ended up with who they wanted, Dermott. Dermott was who they wanted, 5 years later he's a marginal 3rd pairing d-man, awesome. In that same draft players like Hintz, Aho, Carlo, Cernak and Andersson were available which other teams missed as well but so did TO as has been happening consistently and that's the point.

Those 3 were bad choices, no doubts there, but TO is continuing along with questionable choices. Here a glimpse at Hirvonen TO's 2nd rounder from this year" Hirvonen isn’t particularly a fast straight-line skater and takes a bit longer to reach his top speed." This I got from Roni Hirvonen is the Leafs 12th ranked prospect. Pile this observation on top of his size at 5"9" 170 lbs and you almost have the same player as Bracco but without Bracco's offensive upside. Again TO traded down in the draft, making it even harder to do well.

Essentially the people who are doing the drafting, the scouts, are not doing a good job especially when in '15 a superior draft TO ended up with Marner, great choice that TO wanted to trade down from, but also Dermott and Timashov, a 3rd pairing d-man on a league minimum contract with minimal results and Timashov a part time 4th liner on teams that don't have 3rd/4th line depth. The current GM who is so fond of trading down for more choices should wake up and realize that TO's drafting ability isn't so good and maybe should trade up in the in the draft to give the scouts a better chance of succeeding. In '15 there was a good chance that TO would've picked Konecny who lead Philly in scoring this year but no TO traded out of that spot, stupid.

Those 3 choices that you mentioned were bad and no sane person should've drafted them because all 3 didn't have NHL speed to begin with.

Your embarassing yourself. Did you read the article or just assigning every player a certain way to suit your narrative? Something tells me a bit of both.
Hirvonen is no way like Bracco. Stop twitsting facts. He is the complete opposite player. Maybe stop judging by his size
Essentially, Dubas and the scouts have done a tremendous job and he needs to continue his thinking. Robertson is already a homerun.
Anyways thanks for admitting your biases with all the flawed points you made.

 

[stickty111]

Yes, that's the idea but it ain't working. TO drafted a guy in the '90s who scored 50 goals and he didn't even make the AHL, Robertson isn't a slam dunk.

Yeah but it is working. It's not just Leafs fans as you said. The trusted scouting experts say Leafs drafting has been good since Dubas took over.

 

[supermann_98]

Yes, that's the idea but it ain't working. TO drafted a guy in the '90s who scored 50 goals and he didn't even make the AHL, Robertson isn't a slam dunk.

Yeah let's blame Dubas for "some guy drafted in the 90's" who was a bust ... sound logic

 

[stickty111]

Yeah let's blame Dubas for "some guy drafted in the 90's" who was a bust ... sound logic

What I don't get is how he says Hirvonen is Bracco when their profile is not close to being the same. It looks like someone looking for any point to suit his opinion even when it's wrong.
Our prospects are progressing. Oh no thats bad.

 

[Fogelhund]

What I don't get is how he says Hirvonen is Bracco when their profile is not close to being the same. It looks like someone looking for any point to suit his opinion even when it's wrong.
Our prospects are progressing. Oh no thats bad.

We have quite a few members, who want to crap on everything, no matter what the evidence, or counterpoint says. Just going to endlessly argue how bad things are, all the time. I don't even understand, how these people call themselves fans.

 

[Gabriel426]

We have quite a few members, who want to crap on everything, no matter what the evidence, or counterpoint says. Just going to endlessly argue how bad things are, all the time. I don't even understand, how these people call themselves fans.

They are passionate fans, that’s all.

 

[IPS]

We have quite a few members, who want to crap on everything, no matter what the evidence, or counterpoint says. Just going to endlessly argue how bad things are, all the time. I don't even understand, how these people call themselves fans.

Maybe they're not?

 

[LeafChief]

People complaining about the Hirvonen pick couldn't name 2 players within his draft range yet have such strong opinions on a player they've never watched play.