Speculation: 2019 offseason thread IV

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The point is we have no ammo (other than cap space) to improve for the LONG term when opportunities like this arise bc we blew our wad on short term fixes.

With our lack of skill up front this is a low cost opportunity missed. You may want to dismiss it outright but I’m not gonna. It pisses me off to see division teams getting better while we get worse. And we have gotten worse.

I'm not dismissing anything. I'm just pointing out that it's not a simple line to draw to make a connection between the two situations.

 

[Jackets16]

I see this board hasn't changed any.

 

[NotWendell]

They've literally had multiple rounds of generational talent to help make the organization what it is today.

What ViD said is not wrong. Mario's role as an owner has been as important to that franchise as his playing days. If it weren't for him and Jagr, that club wouldn't have lived long enough to see a Crosby.

 

[Xoggz22]

Did we have anyone in the system playing in the KHL or other leagues in Russia last year? Any chance we actually watched Gusev play to get a gauge on him? I don't know, maybe a 2nd and a 3rd was a high price for an unknown. I mean he's never played a minute of NHL hockey and some are acting like he's the second coming of Panarin. We can gripe all we want about what picks we don't have and what we did last year. There would be just as many gripes saying we shouldn't have folded the tents and gone for it. I mean if you think you have a chance, you think you have a good core, how do you not take the chance. We can wait and wait and wait but the next thing you know you're doing nothing but living in mediocrity.The chance was there, we took it. Beat the #1 seed and took Boston to 6 games. We return a solid team with the biggest question mark in goal.

I'm going to wait to see what happens. I still think this team has a lot of talent. And yes, they have holes too.

 

[Toe Pick]

A source said they believe the other team to make a bid for Gusev outside of New Jersey was the Columbus Blue Jackets, but that offer fell short of the two-pick package the Devils offered.

Why trading Nikita Gusev to New Jersey was Vegas' best...

Good to know the Jackets were in on this but you can’t trade what you don’t have, unfortunately.

Also mentions Vegas exploring Reeves and Holden market but no GMs willing to help Vegas out of their cap crunch.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

More and more convinced a D for F trade is now coming. Jarmo knows this forward corps isn’t presently good enough.

 

[Kellen]

More and more convinced a D for F trade is now coming. Jarmo knows this forward corps isn’t presently good enough.

I hope so but I’m not sure it’s going to happen.

Remember when Vegas took a bunch of Defensemen in the expansion draft and the strategy was to trade some of it for forwards? And they couldn’t give them away. Maybe that’s whats going on here.

 

[Kellen]

I hope so but I’m not sure it’s going to happen.

Remember when Vegas took a bunch of Defensemen in the expansion draft and the strategy was to trade some of it for forwards? And they couldn’t give them away. Maybe that’s whats going on here.

The reason I say this is because guys like Kukan and Carlsson are a dime and dozen. I don’t think Jarmo is dangling Savard or Nutivaara.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Panarin effect plain and simple. Jarmo's not going to build around a player who's going to be UFA in 2 years. He's been down that street before.

He won't trade for a guy who won't agree to a 614 tattoo is the rumor...

 

[JacketsDavid]

The only difference between Pittsburgh and Columbus is that Pittsburgh has been lucky to get generational players and won with them. I'll even confidently say that Columbus is a better city than Pittsburgh. People want to be in Pittsburgh because they've been winners. It's fine and dandy that these players want to be here but they need to be able to win games too.

Big difference is ownership and leadership.

Mario took Crosby under his wing - literally lived in his house for a season or two. Taught him how to be a pro.

Zherdev was out partying every night and the CBUS solution was to bring his mom over to live with him.
Mason got Mono and it was his real estate agent bringing him soup until his parents arrived.
Svitov's kid had a medical emergency and his wife had no resource to call and it was a neighbor who was a nurse that helped. His wife didn't know to call 911.

Granted prior management, but simply showed for many years this team was a hot mess. Patching holes, plugging in players hoping something worked.

 

[KJ Dangler]

This is kind of getting weird, the whole rally around Columbus thing.

Or perhaps he actually lived how toxic the past year was , with Pouty Bob , and Panarin . And he’s maybe first hand seen the talent level of Texier, Bemstrom . I seem to remember Duchene raving about how good Korpi was after being traded here , and practicing with him

 

[NotWendell]

Well, you're essentially giving up those 2 picks for another short term rental (2 years) of unknown impact.

 

[Old Guy]

Hey...maybe I missed this, but why does it benefit the TML to re-acquire the Clarkson contract? Is is because it was front-loaded with bonus (which Vegas paid in cash on July 1) and now TML takes on the cap hit, which they can easily stash on long-term injured reserve. But don't they (for a moment) have to have him on the active roster? If so, does that mean that Marner will not sign until after the opening roster is submitted and Clarkson is moved to LTIR? The benefit of doing the deal was to pick up some assets that VGK was willing to unload for the cap relief??

If this has already been discussed, I apologize. I'm in Old Guy Summer Mode.

 

[EspenK]

Well, you're essentially giving up those 2 picks for another short term rental (2 years) of unknown impact.

Unless you sign him for more. Although I read somewhere that Jarmo was only interested in a 4 year deal and Gusev wasn't. Still two years lets Tex, Bemstrom, Foudy, TFW, maybe Marcenko(?) mature and be stronger adds to the roster. Guess we'll never know.

 

[EspenK]

Hey...maybe I missed this, but why does it benefit the TML to re-acquire the Clarkson contract? Is is because it was front-loaded with bonus (which Vegas paid in cash on July 1) and now TML takes on the cap hit, which they can easily stash on long-term injured reserve. But don't they (for a moment) have to have him on the active roster? If so, does that mean that Marner will not sign until after the opening roster is submitted and Clarkson is moved to LTIR? The benefit of doing the deal was to pick up some assets that VGK was willing to unload for the cap relief??

If this has already been discussed, I apologize. I'm in Old Guy Summer Mode.

The essence of the deal is it was for the LITR. But you are right there are some complications in how they can use it. Bottom line is they have to be cap compliant when the season starts (and Clarkson would be on the roster) but then they immediately place Clarkson & Horton on LITR.

If you are a masochist or at least have tendencies you can read this and try to understand.

Maple Leafs, LTIR, David Clarkson and everything you need to understand this trade

 

[majormajor]

Good to know the Jackets were in on this but you can’t trade what you don’t have, unfortunately.

I'd have guessed we had more spare assets than New Jersey did. A 2nd + 3rd isn't worth that much, certainly less than the value of a second pair D-man (which we have quite a lot of). It stands to reason that Jarmo didn't think Gusev was worth the equivalent of a 2nd + 3rd, though it's too bad New Jersey did because we were close.

So that’s what you’re calling this now? Get real.

And I’m not sure why it so hard to admit you were wrong on Gusev. I’m wrong all the time.

Thought Tampa would sweep us — WRONG!

Thought for sure Panarin would get dealt by the deadline — WRONG!

See. It’s not so hard.

You are wrong all the time, got that part right. I'm open to being wrong all the time, a little bit different. (joking).

In the post you're replying to I'm discussing why I changed my mind about Gusev, so I would think it's implicit that I was wrong. But if it's at all unclear, I was wrong about Gusev. Or at least about his perceived value. We don't know how good he is so it's a little early to say who's wrong about that.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

What’s the value of Sparks? He’s put up good AHL numbers but has been bad in the NHL. Doubt he has much value at all? We didn’t have a second, but we could’ve taken on Clarkson. That would’ve “saved” Vegas a 4th. We then could have done a 3rd and a 4th.

Scenario 1:
Sparks
2nd
3rd

Scenario 2:
3rd
4th (kept by Vegas, not traded to TOR)
4th

How does two 4ths compare to a 2nd and Sparks? How much more would we have needed to add?

 

[Jovavic]

The reason I say this is because guys like Kukan and Carlsson are a dime and dozen. I don’t think Jarmo is dangling Savard or Nutivaara.

A few years ago people would've said Nuti was a dime a dozen defenseman and look at what a few seasons did. Kukan is starting to tap his potential, let's hold off on pegging him as bottom pair or worse forever.

 

[majormajor]

The essence of the deal is it was for the LITR. But you are right there are some complications in how they can use it. Bottom line is they have to be cap compliant when the season starts (and Clarkson would be on the roster) but then they immediately place Clarkson & Horton on LITR.

If you are a masochist or at least have tendencies you can read this and try to understand.

Maple Leafs, LTIR, David Clarkson and everything you need to understand this trade

I haven't double checked this. If you want to waste more time, tell me if this makes sense:

The LTIR benefit comes in in full only if you are hard up against the cap on day one. With Marner unsigned they wouldn't be at the cap, and wouldn't get the full LTIR benefit when they needed to sign him. They needed another LTIR to get to the cap.

Without the Clarkson trade here's the situation (numbers are illustrative, not 100% right):

Cap hit on day one with Marner unsigned - $78.5m.
With Horton put on LTIR, they'd only get $2m in LTIR benefit, not the full $5m LTIR benefit for Horton (benefit is player salary minus day one cap space).
That gives them about $76.5m in cap hit, not enough space left for Marner.

Now with Clarkson:

Cap hit on day one - $81.5m -- Clarkson adds ~$5m and they can subtract a couple million by shuttling ELCs to the AHL for a day.
The next day, get the full LTIR benefit for Clarkson and Horton, and add those couple ELC's back in, and you have a cap hit of $73.5m, a good bit more room to sign Marner.

Apologies if I'm wrong and you just wasted brain cells on this.

 

[EspenK]

I think that is essentially correct. Need to do a bit of shuffling day 1 to get full LITR relief. Problem that still exists is that they can't sign Marner until the LITR's are in effect which means he missed camp (he has said he isn't going without a signed deal).

 

[majormajor]

I hope so but I’m not sure it’s going to happen.

Remember when Vegas took a bunch of Defensemen in the expansion draft and the strategy was to trade some of it for forwards? And they couldn’t give them away. Maybe that’s whats going on here.

Vegas stockpiled on bottom pair guys like Sbisa and Merrill, which I think is a little bit different. Maybe the market for D isn't good, though I look at a team like Winnipeg and think they aren't done shopping. It seems likely that a lot is waiting on the RFA contracts. Columbus and Winnipeg might have already touched base about a D for F deal but can't move until the big RFAs sign.

The reason I say this is because guys like Kukan and Carlsson are a dime and dozen. I don’t think Jarmo is dangling Savard or Nutivaara.

We've got a logjam in our top 6 D-men, which doesn't even count Kukan. If Murray doesn't get injured guys are going to be pretty unhappy with their ice time. Kukan and Carlsson is not a thing by the way. Carlsson is a prospect. Kukan is like Michal Kempny, a cheap complementary D that can slide up to #4D no problem - I'm sure that teams value that.

 

[majormajor]

I think that is essentially correct. Need to do a bit of shuffling day 1 to get full LITR relief. Problem that still exists is that they can't sign Marner until the LITR's are in effect which means he missed camp (he has said he isn't going without a signed deal).

Right. It looks like the Leafs made this deal to help retain leverage with Marner. They won't have any less cap space after day one, so he can't rush them.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Just adding... there’s a discussion about the team’s depth at d and what value guys might have and how deep does it go and whatnot.

That is forgetting Harrington. And, to a lesser degree Clendening.

Maybe the discussion is those specific players but I didn’t think so, so this just is more fodder for the depth discussion.

 

[majormajor]

Just adding... there’s a discussion about the team’s depth at d and what value guys might have and how deep does it go and whatnot.

That is forgetting Harrington. And, to a lesser degree Clendening.

Maybe the discussion is those specific players but I didn’t think so, so this just is more fodder for the depth discussion.

Yeah I completely forgot about them. They didn't look bad at all to me last season. It sure looks like the D is Jarmo's stockpile for a trade.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

More and more convinced a D for F trade is now coming. Jarmo knows this forward corps isn’t presently good enough.

I'm not convinced he knows the forward corps isn't good enough but this will be what happens simply because we have too much D depth to get everyone playing time that deserves it.