majormajor
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2018
- 26,774
- 32,925
I assume these WRA stats are based primarily on last year's performances? If so I doubt an adjustment has been made for Bread's absence. Therefore I think these are too high. To assume otherwise is foolish. I'm still thinking he's going to cost at least 10 points in the standings.
This is the problem with using synthetic stats like WAR where we don't even know the formulas. There's several different competing WAR formulas out there and a lot of these aren't public information. It makes it impossible to tell whether a player's number is high because of a linemate effect or because of some underlying skill. Or a sample size effect vs some other effect.
But to sort of answer your question, when I've looked at WAR numbers in the past (I can't see Sean Tierney's), it was common for Cam to have a WAR value anywhere between 1/10 and 1/3 of Panarin. That seems reasonable to me. It's not hard to figure out from primary assists and zone exits and entries that Panarin was carrying his line. So that source data would get incorporated into the stat. And Panarin got a much bigger WAR value than Cam did, and Panarin's is no longer part of our projected team WAR. That is theoretically how the WAR stats should work - if they can't figure out that Panarin was carrying his line then it's good for nothing.
I can see from the pairing/lines WAR that Werenski and Jones had disappointing WAR last year. That's not too surprising, they were bad until late March (especially Werenski) when they got really good. I expect them to be much better this coming season, again especially Werenski.
Edit: According to Tierney's WAR, Cam is our third best RW. It's a pretty good hint that they know he was partly reliant on Panarin.
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