Speculation: 2019 offseason thread IV

[majormajor]

I assume these WRA stats are based primarily on last year's performances? If so I doubt an adjustment has been made for Bread's absence. Therefore I think these are too high. To assume otherwise is foolish. I'm still thinking he's going to cost at least 10 points in the standings.

This is the problem with using synthetic stats like WAR where we don't even know the formulas. There's several different competing WAR formulas out there and a lot of these aren't public information. It makes it impossible to tell whether a player's number is high because of a linemate effect or because of some underlying skill. Or a sample size effect vs some other effect.

But to sort of answer your question, when I've looked at WAR numbers in the past (I can't see Sean Tierney's), it was common for Cam to have a WAR value anywhere between 1/10 and 1/3 of Panarin. That seems reasonable to me. It's not hard to figure out from primary assists and zone exits and entries that Panarin was carrying his line. So that source data would get incorporated into the stat. And Panarin got a much bigger WAR value than Cam did, and Panarin's is no longer part of our projected team WAR. That is theoretically how the WAR stats should work - if they can't figure out that Panarin was carrying his line then it's good for nothing.

I can see from the pairing/lines WAR that Werenski and Jones had disappointing WAR last year. That's not too surprising, they were bad until late March (especially Werenski) when they got really good. I expect them to be much better this coming season, again especially Werenski.

Edit: According to Tierney's WAR, Cam is our third best RW. It's a pretty good hint that they know he was partly reliant on Panarin.

 

[majormajor]

I'm not fully familiar with how this particular model is assembled, but I get the impression that there's at least some degree of accounting for the last several years. The thing I noted that has me questioning is that it seems to really like Texier, which screams to me "assuming too much on small sample size".

Wow you are right, I switched Texier in for Jenner and it added 9 points to our total, ridiculously high. I don't think that's possible based on his sample from last year, mostly because he wasn't that productive in any dimension. There must be some special rating for prospects where Texier is rated very high (way higher than he's rated on HFboards).

I did this lineup and came up with 103 pts, but you can go ahead and subtract 9 pts for Texier if you want.

Gustav Nyquist	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Josh Anderson
Nick Foligno	Alex Texier	Oliver Bjorkstrand
Sonny Milano	Boone Jenner	Cam Atkinson
Riley Nash	Alex Wennberg	Emil Bemstrom

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan Murray	Seth Jones
Zach Werenski	David Savard
Dean Kukan	Markus Nutivaara

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Replacement G

Replacement G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

"Replacement G" is basically .900 goaltending, should be doable.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Wow you are right, I switched Texier in for Jenner and it added 9 points to our total, ridiculously high. I don't think that's possible based on his sample from last year, mostly because he wasn't that productive in any dimension. There must be some special rating for prospects where Texier is rated very high (way higher than he's rated on HFboards).

I did this lineup and came up with 103 pts, but you can go ahead and subtract 9 pts for Texier if you want.

Gustav Nyquist	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Josh Anderson
Nick Foligno	Alex Texier	Oliver Bjorkstrand
Sonny Milano	Boone Jenner	Cam Atkinson
Riley Nash	Alex Wennberg	Emil Bemstrom

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan Murray	Seth Jones
Zach Werenski	David Savard
Dean Kukan	Markus Nutivaara

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Replacement G

Replacement G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

"Replacement G" is basically .900 goaltending, should be doable.

I'll bet the house on the under 103 please.

It's got to be a formula based on last year for Tex. Have to be assuming he would score at same clip he did last year (10 games, 4 points) with limited minutes. Very small sample size but has to be based on that.

 

[EspenK]

Wow you are right, I switched Texier in for Jenner and it added 9 points to our total, ridiculously high. I don't think that's possible based on his sample from last year, mostly because he wasn't that productive in any dimension. There must be some special rating for prospects where Texier is rated very high (way higher than he's rated on HFboards).

I did this lineup and came up with 103 pts, but you can go ahead and subtract 9 pts for Texier if you want.

Gustav Nyquist	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Josh Anderson
Nick Foligno	Alex Texier	Oliver Bjorkstrand
Sonny Milano	Boone Jenner	Cam Atkinson
Riley Nash	Alex Wennberg	Emil Bemstrom

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan Murray	Seth Jones
Zach Werenski	David Savard
Dean Kukan	Markus Nutivaara

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Replacement G

Replacement G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

"Replacement G" is basically .900 goaltending, should be doable.

Does where you place guys (ie which line combos) change the WAR? I'll play around with it later but if anyone has a quick answer I'd appreciate.

 

[GoJackets1]

I had a dream about Milano and Bemstrom combining for 2 sweet goals in a game. Now I expect Milano to do well. Don't let me down.

 

[blahblah]

The last time we checked, the coach's preference for Wennberg was 4th line / press box.

That was a "luxury" when Duchene was on the roster. I'm OK with Jenner on that 2nd line center rule, but we're probably "stuck" with Wennberg playing a lot of minutes. Our depth a both LW and Center is pretty tenuous and injuries could blow this team up fairly quickly.

I don't know how Wennberg is going to do, but I'm hoping Nyquist can help the man along.

At this point we've got a bit of a house of cards and we're not quite sure how good the foundation will be yet.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Wow you are right, I switched Texier in for Jenner and it added 9 points to our total, ridiculously high. I don't think that's possible based on his sample from last year, mostly because he wasn't that productive in any dimension. There must be some special rating for prospects where Texier is rated very high (way higher than he's rated on HFboards).

I did this lineup and came up with 103 pts, but you can go ahead and subtract 9 pts for Texier if you want.

Gustav Nyquist	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Josh Anderson
Nick Foligno	Alex Texier	Oliver Bjorkstrand
Sonny Milano	Boone Jenner	Cam Atkinson
Riley Nash	Alex Wennberg	Emil Bemstrom

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ryan Murray	Seth Jones
Zach Werenski	David Savard
Dean Kukan	Markus Nutivaara

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Replacement G

Replacement G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

"Replacement G" is basically .900 goaltending, should be doable.

Like this, but I support any lineup that excludes Dubi.

 

[Viqsi]

Does where you place guys (ie which line combos) change the WAR? I'll play around with it later but if anyone has a quick answer I'd appreciate.

It changes the final outcome because how many wins a player can get us (or cost us) is dependent on how much ice time they spend out there, so they're weighted differently.

 

[EDM]

Cam Atkinson is not going to be on the third line.

 

[CharlotteJacket]

87.5 is a great radio station....

Honestly this season could go in any direction. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 100 point season nor a 75 point season.

I would be shocked to see a 100 point season.

 

[majormajor]

Cam Atkinson is not going to be on the third line.

The 2nd vs 3rd line distinction is kind of arbitrary - there wasn't any consistent usage difference last year. WAR puts Cam as our third best RW, and I happen to think that makes some sense. Cam had a lower scoring rate away from Panarin than Anderson and Bjorkstrand did, and they had better defensive results. And I don't think Torts is wedded to the idea of using Cam as a pure finisher. Cam wasn't a top liner until a year and a half ago, he was a middle-six checking winger who potted 20-30 goals per year. I think he was providing a ton of value in that role - and pairing him with his old linemate Jenner makes some intuitive sense to me. Get Cam back to playing a more energetic game. Call it second line or third line or whatever you want. I would not put Cam with Dubois or Nyquist - Nyquist is known to rely on heavy linemates to create space for him, and Dubois + Cam without Panarin was not good last year. Dubois actually had some great results with Anderson and with Bjorkstrand.

 

[majormajor]

Does where you place guys (ie which line combos) change the WAR? I'll play around with it later but if anyone has a quick answer I'd appreciate.

It's just minutes. Every player has a per minute value, and that gets translated into WAR depending on how many minutes you give them.

 

[majormajor]

I'll bet the house on the under 103 please.

It's got to be a formula based on last year for Tex. Have to be assuming he would score at same clip he did last year (10 games, 4 points) with limited minutes. Very small sample size but has to be based on that.

I would recommend subtracting the 9 points in the standings attributed to Texier - that was obviously wrong. I would agree with the 94 pt projection if we get .900 goaltending. Which means we should be pretty good if the goaltending is a positive surprise!

The Texier rating isn't even possible based on last year's NHL scoring. He didn't score a point per game or anything like that, or even a particularly high per minute rate. It's got to be some weird underlying stat in the formula, that or maybe his rating comes from the AHL / Liiga play - Tierney has separate formulas for prospects. Either way it makes no sense, it's like an NHL MVP WAR.

 

[majormajor]

There's good middle six wings out there like Michael Frolik that could be had for next to nothing. Frolik is a .5ppg strong two way player that can play either wing and is on an expiring contract. I personally would feel more assured about our lineup if we added him. There's 8 players that we all agree are solid top 9, I have to think the reason Jarmo hasn't added a ninth is because either 1) he wants to leave space for a young player like Bemstrom or Milano to fight their way into the top 9, and for Wennberg or Nash to fight their way back into the top 9, and/or 2) he's holding out to see if he can make a big D for F trade, which probably has to wait until the league's top RFAs re-sign.

 

[blahblah]

I would be shocked to see a 100 point season.

I was shocked at our 108 point season (I think that was the total). I was surprised when we starting putting together 10+ game winning streaks every season. Nothing this team does shocks me much anymore. This team has the players to get 100 points.

 

[majormajor]

If this team gets .915 goaltending, we should expect 100 points.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[EspenK]

Really hope this guy turns out to be a dud so that we don't have to endure years of arguing about Jarmo's hesitation to pull the trigger.

 

[Toe Pick]

Really hope this guy turns out to be a dud so that we don't have to endure years of arguing about Jarmo's hesitation to pull the trigger.

Would have rather chanced this than two second rounders on Dzingle.

Perfect example of the pain we are feeling and will continue to feel for the foreseeable future from going “all in.”

Credit to New Jersey. They have added a ton of skill this offseason. Interesting to see how it translates in the win column.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Would have rather chanced this than two second rounders on Dzingle.

Perfect example of the pain we are feeling and will continue to feel for the foreseeable future from going “all in.”

Ok but there was no way to know the Gusev situation would reach this point, at least, no way to be sure. Plus, a trade this summer wouldn’t have helped at the end of last season.

 

[DJA]

Really happy to see all of the other Metro teams continue to get better this offseason.

 

[majormajor]

Really hope this guy turns out to be a dud so that we don't have to endure years of arguing about Jarmo's hesitation to pull the trigger.

We can assume that most GMs have concluded that he would be a dud, or close to it.

When I watch the extended highlights I don't see a player that could dominate at the NHL level. He's not strong for his size like Panarin or Kucherov, he can't fight through checks. He plays with a long stick and can't stickhandle in a phonebooth or shoot from his skates. He has a slow-release wide sweeping shot, which is pretty difficult to get off in NHL space. Everything about him screams open ice player. His vision/passing and transition play are all great, which might make him a Marcus Johansson type of player. I don't think he'll be much better than that. Maybe he'd be a great complement to great players, but not much use to a workmen lineup like the Jackets have.



There was a rumor that Jarmo wanted Gusev if he'd sign a 4 year deal, but that makes little sense to me. If he's good enough for a 4 year deal, he's good enough for 2. The trade price isn't high.

 

[majormajor]

Ok but there was no way to know the Gusev situation would reach this point, at least, no way to be sure. Plus, a trade this summer wouldn’t have helped at the end of last season.

I agree, the KHL transition is difficult, but really the time travel aspect has so far proven to be a more insurmountable barrier.

 

[Toe Pick]

Ok but there was no way to know the Gusev situation would reach this point, at least, no way to be sure. Plus, a trade this summer wouldn’t have helped at the end of last season.

The point is we have no ammo (other than cap space) to improve for the LONG term when opportunities like this arise bc we blew our wad on short term fixes.

With our lack of skill up front this is a low cost opportunity missed. You may want to dismiss it outright but I’m not gonna. It pisses me off to see division teams getting better while we get worse. And we have gotten worse.

 

[majormajor]

The point is we have no ammo (other than cap space) to improve for the LONG term when opportunities like this arise bc we blew our wad on short term fixes.

With our lack of skill up front this is a low cost opportunity missed. You may want to dismiss it outright but I’m not gonna. It pisses me off to see division teams getting better while we get worse. And we have gotten worse.

You're assuming that Gusev would be an upgrade for the Jackets and that they won't acquire him because of a shortage of draft picks. Those aren't safe assumptions.

I do think the Jackets have ammo. I think the five to seven top 4 quality D-men qualifies as significant ammo. And they almost certainly have more future NHL forwards in the prospect pool than they have top 9 players expecting to retire soon.