Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

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It’s happened twice in the last two years with Vilardi in 2017 and Dobson in 2018. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen but I wouldn’t be either if it does.


In both cases the player you mention was not ranked top5 in both the early and midterm rankings. Vilardi was ranked 6th in TSN’s early mock and Dobson was not ranked top5 in the early or midterm rankings. By contrast, Podkolzin ranks in the top5 both early and midterm.

It’s not indicative of much, but this is what’ I generally see. To me, it would be surprising if Podkozin fell to 10 based on these early impressions from scouts.
 
York is getting underrated IMO. That said, I still don't see a defender I want at 10.

C'mon Benning, either take BPA or trade down for or five spots and fill yer boots. There are five guys from 12 -20 in the rankings. All appear like 2nd pairing quality, solid D.


I think he’s stuck on taking a C or D. All the top Cs will be gone and the rest project to be wingers in the show. That leaves Ds to target...
 
not over pods or krebs, but newhook?
2bh I would go broberg over newhook.
Forward is the way 2 go this year tho

I have Newhook firmly in my top 10, even ahead of Krebs.

I wouldn't take a Dman at 10 unless his name is Byram. The forwards are clearly better than the other dmen in this draft.
 
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I have Newhook firmly in my top 10, even ahead of Krebs.

I wouldn't take a Dman at 10 unless his name is Byram. The forwards are clearly better than the other dmen in this draft.

Just playing devils advocate here

What would you value more a 20+ goal scoring 2nd line winger, or a 30+ point solid 2nd pair dman?

While I agree that there is a gap between the 3-10/12 range of forwards and the group of 4 dmen that follow, I don't think it's that big.
 
Just playing devils advocate here

What would you value more a 20+ goal scoring 2nd line winger, or a 30+ point solid 2nd pair dman?

While I agree that there is a gap between the 3-10/12 range of forwards and the group of 4 dmen that follow, I don't think it's that big.

I don't know that there is a 30+ point solid 2nd pair dman in this draft.

What's funny is people posed this question back in 2016 when talking about Juolevi or Tkachuk and I think it's blatantly obvious that Tkachuk was the right pick and Benning screwed up that pick. Yet here we are again 3 years later and people are talking about willingly making the same mistake. It's embarrassing.
 
Just playing devils advocate here

What would you value more a 20+ goal scoring 2nd line winger, or a 30+ point solid 2nd pair dman?

While I agree that there is a gap between the 3-10/12 range of forwards and the group of 4 dmen that follow, I don't think it's that big.

Would you rather draft another Brock Boeser or a slightly taller Troy Stecher?
 
I don't know that there is a 30+ point solid 2nd pair dman in this draft.

What's funny is people posed this question back in 2016 when talking about Juolevi or Tkachuk and I think it's blatantly obvious that Tkachuk was the right pick and Benning screwed up that pick. Yet here we are again 3 years later and people are talking about willingly making the same mistake. It's embarrassing.

Well that's your problem. You're criminally underrating the Dmen. I'd be very surprised if we don't see at least 2 of these dmen become 30 point 2nd pair dmen at the very least.
 
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@biturbo19 just wanted to say that I really enjoy reading your analysis (even though I might not agree with it 100%).

One of the better posters around here:thumbu:

I know you are high on Lavoie... my question is how much of his success do you think is attributed to his size dominating at the junior levels? Will this translate to the NHL where he won't be the biggest guy out there on the ice?

He would be a fine pick in the later half of the 1st round... just wouldn't take him at 10 where other guys like Krebs, Newhook or Caufield might be there.

I wouldn't attribute that much of Lavoie's success to simply dominating with size at the junior level. He's obviously got that size and it's a real asset, but it's not like he's some bully power forward out there just constantly bowling over children and planting himself immovably in scoring areas like "man child" Gadjovich. I see his game as more like Jeff Carter, who is also big, but doesn't regularly use it to bully and dominate physically. Lavoie will lean on guys at times, but most of his success is more about skating in and out of scoring areas with his wicked release, and using the frame and reach to protect the puck. Where even in the NHL, like Carter, Lavoie is still going to be one of the bigger players with a reach advantage and frame to hold guys off the puck.

Lavoie I would be pumped with getting in the 2nd round.

I'd be pumped with Lavoie in the 2nd too. :laugh: I don't think it's at all realistic though. I'd be absolutely floored if a 6'3" sniper who can skate, coming off a near goal-per-game deep playoff drive, fell out of the first round. Heck, i'd be surprised if he's not gone somewhere in the Top-20.

The league has become massively more accepting of smaller players, drafting them higher without hesitation. But that doesn't mean big guys who can skate and score like Lavoie aren't still highly coveted. Especially considering the "copycat" nature of the league, with everyone coming off of watching some bigger, heavier players finding success later into these NHL Playoffs. And the recency bias of Lavoie showing what he's really capable in his own playoffs.
 
Well that's your problem. You're criminally underrating the Dmen. I'd be very surprised if we don't see at least 2 of these dmen become 30 point 2nd pair dmen at the very least.

I have Bowen Byram ranked 3rd on my list, so I wouldn't say I'm criminally underrating defensemen. There's just a massive drop off from Byram and the next defenseman on the list, meanwhile there are a ton of quality forwards who rank higher than the defensemen. It's not my problem. It's a problem we all have to deal with since Benning seems focused on a defenseman like he did in 2016.
 
Rumor canucks have zoned in on 2-3 players and will be brought back for extended interviews. So Dhaliwal saying one of them could be newhook. Others speculating a dman(broberg) and another fwd.
 
I wouldn't attribute that much of Lavoie's success to simply dominating with size at the junior level. He's obviously got that size and it's a real asset, but it's not like he's some bully power forward out there just constantly bowling over children and planting himself immovably in scoring areas like "man child" Gadjovich. I see his game as more like Jeff Carter, who is also big, but doesn't regularly use it to bully and dominate physically. Lavoie will lean on guys at times, but most of his success is more about skating in and out of scoring areas with his wicked release, and using the frame and reach to protect the puck. Where even in the NHL, like Carter, Lavoie is still going to be one of the bigger players with a reach advantage and frame to hold guys off the puck.



I'd be pumped with Lavoie in the 2nd too. :laugh: I don't think it's at all realistic though. I'd be absolutely floored if a 6'3" sniper who can skate, coming off a near goal-per-game deep playoff drive, fell out of the first round. Heck, i'd be surprised if he's not gone somewhere in the Top-20.

The league has become massively more accepting of smaller players, drafting them higher without hesitation. But that doesn't mean big guys who can skate and score like Lavoie aren't still highly coveted. Especially considering the "copycat" nature of the league, with everyone coming off of watching some bigger, heavier players finding success later into these NHL Playoffs. And the recency bias of Lavoie showing what he's really capable in his own playoffs.
For some reason I knew we were talking about Lavoie but then was typing that out as if it were Legare. Lavoie for sure will be a 1st round pick.
 
I have Bowen Byram ranked 3rd on my list, so I wouldn't say I'm criminally underrating defensemen. There's just a massive drop off from Byram and the next defenseman on the list, meanwhile there are a ton of quality forwards who rank higher than the defensemen. It's not my problem. It's a problem we all have to deal with since Benning seems focused on a defenseman like he did in 2016.

Byram is in a level on his own. He's got 50+ point top pair potential.

You are criminally underrating the 3/4 I had mentioned.

Soderstrom I think has the lowest ceiling of the 4 I was talking about, and I don't want him at 10. Even then I think he could easily be a 30 point 2nd pair dman.

Broberg has all physical tools you want, if he learn to play smarter he could be a good #2 Dman.

Seider is a right shot dman with good size and has shown big development this season after he got used to the men's league in Germany.

Harley is one the youngest eligible players for the draft. A lot of his issues are likely solved with more maturity and time.

I think Harley and Seider are legit 2nd pair potential dmen and have upsides that could surpass that with good development
 


Looks like Canucks are zeroing in on Newhook


Guessing bennings list at #10:
Broberg
Newhook
Boldy/krebs

Unless fallers drop that the management rank above these guys, one of them will be a canuck come draft day.

I guess newhook will be a canuck
 


Looks like Canucks are zeroing in on Newhook


But I thought they were going to draft a Dman!?!

Like I said before, I think the Canucks may have one of the 2nd tier dmen higher up on their list than the public lists do. But I do think they like a few of the speedier forwards a lot as well.
 
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We also thought Canucks were going to draft Cody Glass and Michael Rasmussen. I bet no one really knows who the Canucks are going to draft except for the scouting team.
 
Not much indication we've even thought about Podkolzin. I guess management doesn't have the luxury of waiting two years for the guy to leave Russia anyway. They need a win over the near term to keep their jobs.
 
But I thought they were going to draft a Dman!?!

Like I said before, I think the Canucks may have one of the 2nd tier dmen higher up on their list than the public lists do. But I do think they like a few of the speedier forwards a lot as well.
Lol. Y2K left speechless after learning the Canucks are really high on His favourite player
 
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Not much indication we've even thought about Podkolzin. I guess management doesn't have the luxury of waiting two years for the guy to leave Russia anyway. They need a win over the near term to keep their jobs.
I don't think the waiting 2 years is an issue, just the ceiling on Podz plus the Russian factor. None of the guys we are going to draft will be stepping in to the NHL next year anyways to save JB and co.'s jobs so to me that's a moot point.
 
I don't think the waiting 2 years is an issue, just the ceiling on Podz plus the Russian factor. None of the guys we are going to draft will be stepping in to the NHL next year anyways to save JB and co.'s jobs so to me that's a moot point.

Perhaps. Though it will certainly help if the player they draft is visible and present in camp, and plays in the USNTDP program (or WHL, etc), which makes it a heck of a lot easier for the fan base to follow their progress.
 
Boeser is more than just a 20+ goal 2nd liner. Don't undersell him.

True but I don’t think any of the possible USNTDP guys available at 10 - Zegras, Boldy, Caufield - are “just” 20+ goal guys either. All are in the talent realm of a Boeser, whereas the most widely reported D target - Soderstrom - sounds a lot like a 6’ Stecher. That’s more likely the talent trade off that we are looking at here, not the one that you’ve posited.
 
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True but I don’t think any of the possible USNTDP guys available at 10 - Zegras, Boldy, Caufield - are “just” 20+ goal guys either. All are in the talent realm of a Boeser, whereas the most widely reported D target - Soderstrom - sounds a lot like a 6’ Stecher. That’s more likely the talent trade off that we are looking at here, not the one that you’ve posited.

I don't want Soderstrom. I feel Seider and Harley have higher upsides than just a 30 point 2nd pair dmen.

Those 3 USNDT players do have higher ceilings than the 20 goal 2nd line players, but that's a fair guess on what they could be without hitting their ceiling. I'm not even sure those 3 will be available at 10 either.
 
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