Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[BeardyCanuck03]

But like you say, speed is more than just skating and Caufield can score in the blink of an eye. His skating doesn’t have to be Gaudreau good because he doesn’t play like Gaudreau. He plays a lot more like Brett Hull or Stamkos and rarely has the puck on his stick for more than a touch or two. He plays plenty fast.

I agree to a point. The knock on Caufield is that his skating isn't at the level you need it to be for a player his size. I don't know enough about technique and if he can improve it enough to make the NHL leap or not

 

[biturbo19]

Tracey played with two 20 year old who put up 100+ points, I'd be a bit leery about picking him in the early 2nd round, maybe later in the draft if he's still there.

That concern got lessened when he was a big play driver at the U18 tournament.

Yeah. I think much of the concern about Tracey being sort of "carried" by older players in the WHL was eased by how he looked at the U18s. Plugged right in with peer-age linemates to form a great line with chemistry and showed off his smarts i thought. Have to keep in mind with Tracey, he's also really "raw" at that level, and he's got a ton of physical development headroom as he catches up, as a late bloomer.

I'd be plenty happy with him in the 2nd for us. Not sure he'll even be there. But then...this draft seems like a bit of a crapshoot from 3 on through the rest of a rough "tier". Then somewhere around 20 on to maybe even 50 feels like there are a lot of moving parts that could be all over the place. So hard to get a bead on where a lot of these guys might end up going this year.

 

[CanaFan]

I agree to a point. The knock on Caufield is that his skating isn't at the level you need it to be for a player his size. I don't know enough about technique and if he can improve it enough to make the NHL leap or not

It’s a criticism I don’t really understand. He’s a better skater than a guy like Boeser IMO - much quicker bursts in short spaces and only really lacks top end speed - and plays a type of game that is not overly reliant on speed or with-puck-elusiveness. It’s like people have this rule that says all small players must skate as well as Gaudreau to be effective, even when they play nothing like the guy.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I think there is a very strong chance that Canucks will land Podkolzin. I would be ecstatic if that happens, he is a high a value pick from 10.

Do you think they as an organization would actually pick him though...

Fanspeak has a tool who is simulating the NHL Draft. You can try it here: Fanspeak's On the Clock NHL Mock Draft Simulator

My results were too good to be true (AI sucks, I guess):
10: RW VASILI PODKOLZIN
40: G SPENCER KNIGHT
71: D JORDAN SPENCE
102: C REECE NEWKIRK
133: D RONALD ATTARD
156: C ANTTI SAARELA
164: LW MICHAEL GILDON
180: C BLAKE MURRAY
195: D KIM NOUSIAINEN

Yes pls

Heres what I got

10: C ALEX TURCOTTE
40: C RAPHAEL LAVOIE
71: D TOBIAS BJORNFOT
102: D JACOB LEGUERRIER
133: LW SAMUEL FAGEMO
156: RW DANIIL TESANOV
164: LW NANDO EGGENBERGER
180: LW BEN MCCARTNEY
195: G RODDY ROSS

Jesus Christ hell yes

 

[Plot Monkey]

I'm not a prospect/draft expert at all. Most of what I know about prospects, I learn from these threads.

Matthew Boldy is the guy I'm kind of hoping we get. Seems like he'd be a very good fit, and has a realistic chance at being there at #10.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

IMO - Caufield is the guy the scouts were talking about in the Canucks Draft Strategy video in terms of a guy who hasn’t paid the price in the middle yet but he can learn to.

 

[BROCK HUGHES]

I'm not sure who I'd pick at 10 ,I'm kinda stuck on some guys.If they go defence,think I'd take Broberg over Soderstrom.If they go forward,its who is left of the pile really.Caufield ,Newhook,Krebs,ect,,I want the one who is more ready to step in sooner then later,,

 

[biturbo19]

Feels like our management team wants Newhook, Krebs, or Cozens.

Those are good prospects to want, if that's the case. I'd be really happy with any of them, though i'd prefer Krebs or Cozens to Newhook.

I think we'll be looking at Caufield and Kaliyev, in that case. The Canucks need goalscorers. Those two are the best shooters in the draft class.
Zegras and Krebs are both playmakers. Of those two, I think Krebs reads plays better.
I would not look at Suzuki or Pelletier with the 10th pick.

I don't really agree that we strictly need "goal-scorers" over everything else. Predominantly, we just need more good, skilled prospective Top-6 scoring forwards. I think there's room in the Top-6 for at least another more "playmaker" type. A good passer on Bo's wing wouldn't hurt, and even Petey should probably be able to find chemistry with a winger who thinks the game at a high level, even if they are more of a passer.

I kinda like the distinction between Zegras and Krebs though. I'd happily take either, but i think the biggest difference beyond the energy level, engagement, intagibles...is Krebs maybe "reads the play" a bit better, where Zegras with the puck on his stick can "control the play" a bit better.

If the draft goes:
Leaving the Canucks to choose from Zegras, Krebs, Newhook, Suzuki or Pelletier. A lot of skill still left on the table.

Pelletier is a kind of peculiar name on that list of forward considerations in the Top-10. Really haven't seen him getting any of that kind of steam in his draft stock, and from what i've seen, i wouldn't got near that high with him. I'd be looking at him more as potentially falling to our 2nd rounder. Personally, i'd probably throw Lavoie in there instead, which others might find peculiar and a bit of a reach i guess. But with his size, shot, skating, there's huge upside there if he can develop a level of consistency to his game and play at that playoff level all the time. What puts Pelletier in that conversation at 10 for you?

 

[lawrence]

IMO - Caufield is the guy the scouts were talking about in the Canucks Draft Strategy video in terms of a guy who hasn’t paid the price in the middle yet but he can learn to.

What makes you think it’s not zegras ?

 

[biturbo19]

Why? Broberg would be perfect, Guy is so damn good every-time I have watched him play.
People thought Sergachev had rocks for brains also.
I would be completely fine with broberg, excited actually.

Broberg to me, is almost like the bizarro Sergachyov. There's similarity there in a pair of big guys who can skate, but with some "hockey IQ" questions. It was always clear with Sergy that he knew his way around the offensive zone though. His sort of "floor" always felt like "big PP Specialist". It was the defensive aspect where he showed some real lapses as a prospect, and frankly...still does as a Pro thus far.

Broberg seems the other way around. He has some hiccups defensively that are mildly concerning, and sometimes even seem to get his skating a bit crossed up. But it's more a question of how he sees the ice and anticipates the play offensively for me. Unlike Sergachyov, he doesn't seem to entirely know what to do with the puck once he gets it to offensive zone. It's a bit like Keith Ballard back in the day, with the tools to wheel the puck up ice impressively...only to arrive at the opposing blueline, befuddled by the new environment. Like Broberg hits the opposing blueline, or inherits a puck there, and there's an indecision or bit of processing lag that comes across as just not processing the game quickly enough offensively.

I actually like Broberg. He's such a strong skater and so raw. Looks like a goose out there stumbling around at times. Give him two years in the SHL and I think he could end up the best D in the draft. Clearly has high bust potential but if he pans out he's gonna be a beast. I know a lot of you don't like him and I'm wondering why. Genuinely curious, not looking for an argument.
I'd really like us to draft a D. Seider would be another good option IMO. Not interested in Soderstrom or York though.

The above is where i don't necessarily think Broberg has big "total bust" potential. It's just where i don't know if his upside is actually that high, if he doesn't process the offensive side of the game well enough. That's my reservations with him. He reminds me a fair bit of Connor Murphy. I can see the appeal, and Broberg might well end up better than Murphy has in the long-run, but it's a lot of the same sort of "projection" going on.

Whereas Cam York to me, doesn't have that issue at all. He's an absolutely natural puck-mover, both with his feet and with his passes. Sees the ice extremely well, pushes the play up ice aggressively, and he looks completely at home when it gets there. He's a big component in why those NTDP forwards are able to play so "fast" and always attacking moving foward. I understand the hesitance after having just taken a tiny defenceman in Hughes as the "keystone" to our D Corps for the future. We're still going to need "matchup" players back there...that's why i wasn't thrilled to pass on a guy like Dobson for Hughes in the first place. Other than that, and the inherent physical limitations as a matchup defender that come with York's smaller size though...what's not to like there?

I do like Seider quite a bit too. Tough to get a real handle on what exactly his upside is, but his game is already a lot more refined and focused than Broberg for me, with similar "size" + "skating" sort of upside, plus bonus physicality. Looks more comfortable jumping in offensively too. It's a bit of a roll of the dice and would surely be panned as a "reach" at the time, but i'd take him over York or Broberg.

I'm also very high on Broberg, I think he could be like a physically dominant version of Miro Heiskanen, well-rounded skating defenseman who wants to make a difference. He can also play the right side, and having him and Quinn would be fun to watch for our transition game.

I just really can't think of anything other than "tallness" that Broberg has over Heiskanen as a prospect. There may be an upside to that size that Heiskanen can never match, but the smarts and instincts, quickness in movement and puck movement, natural offensive anticipation just aren't the same as Heiskanen as a prospect at all.

 

[Canucks LB]

Well I will be hammering ryan biech and cam robinson tomorrow about Broberg, so look forward to it

 

[biturbo19]

I can kinda see where the idea of Boldy as a Center comes from. He has some elements of that to his game, but seems about as tenuous as the pre-draft scuttlebutt that some people thought Puljujarvi or even Tkachuk might be able to play C. I don't really see it actually working out like Dubois though.

I think your underrating Newhook's talent. His ceiling is higher, offensively talented, transition play is better, he's not shabby defensively either. Boldy will definitely win you more puck battles and his passing is good too. I think Boldy more of higher floor and lower ceiling type of player.

I don't think Boldy's "ceiling" is really that low either though. I feel like he and Newhook are both going to be guys at the Pro level, who are more complementary Wingers than pure line-drivers. Part of their production is probably always going to depend on the caliber of linemates you can supply them...but they both have the skillsets to help good players be even more productive around them too.

Boldy looks to me like he's going to control the play below the hash marks in the NHL, along the boards, and anywhere else top speed doesn't matter. I would be ecstatic to get him, and think he should be almost as easy a choice as Quinn Hughes if he's on the board.

This to me, reads like a copy/paste of Matthew Tkachuk's scouting report. There are some similarities there, but i haven't actually seen that copy/paste player in Boldy. I'd say Boldy is actually a more creative "space" player than he's given credit for. He does a lot of really creative things and shows off plenty of vision and skill well above the hashmarks. Maybe more than Tkachuk even. But he's also not the same sort of down low and around the crease beast Tkachuk was as a prospect. Doesn't have that same edge to his game either.

I do think he'd be a nice complement to either of Bo or Petey though. He's got that balanced skillset where he's not just a "shoot always" guy, or a "grind down low" guy...he can work all sorts of different approaches and read off linemates. Just don't know that he's going to really be a driver himself, which is probably fine picking 10th in a draft like this, if he lives up to what he can be as a complementary player.

 

[DFAC]

@biturbo19 just wanted to say that I really enjoy reading your analysis (even though I might not agree with it 100%).

One of the better posters around here

I know you are high on Lavoie... my question is how much of his success do you think is attributed to his size dominating at the junior levels? Will this translate to the NHL where he won't be the biggest guy out there on the ice?

He would be a fine pick in the later half of the 1st round... just wouldn't take him at 10 where other guys like Krebs, Newhook or Caufield might be there.

One guy I would avoid is Soderstrom.... the last thing the Canucks need is a small-ish defensive dman. Hard pass. If the Canucks do decide to go and pick a dman, they should look at York/Heinola/Seider. Heinola is my favorite of the 3, followed closely by Seider and then York. I think Heinola and Seider both have top pairing potential and at pick 10, that's not a bad outcome at all. I've heard Harley's name thrown around too but I haven't seen or read too much of him to form much of an opinion

 

[Bleach Clean]

Definitely an interesting order, and I'd be surprised if Zegras is available at 10 OA (there are a few teams in the top 5 that are apparently giving him consideration). Haven't heard much around Podkolzin out of the combine except for the fact he only had around 18 teams interview him (and he's a beast at 6'1 ~200lbs). I would again be pretty surprised if the Oilers take Broberg, though there was some buzz they were going to take Sergachev as high as 4 OA back in 2016. I'd think the Oilers take Cozens in that scenario.

Nothing to complain about, however, if we're picking between Zegras and Krebs. I'd take Zegras gleefully at 10.

I still think the most likely scenario is that we're picking between Podkolzin, Caufield, Newhook, and Broberg.

Generally, I haven't seen a player that is hyped throughout the year as a top5 pick get dropped out of the top10 by draft time. It's just a rare occurrence. Podkolzin still should get picked high. I don't expect him to be there at pick #10.

Zegras is unlikely to be picked within the top5. Turcotte and Byram go before him and Dach/Cozens offer more tools. Could you see Mike Futa going with Zegras over the big centre options in Dach or Cozens? I'd say it's unlikely considering LA's draft tendencies.

After that, we have Steve Yzerman, who in Tampa picked mainly CHLers with his 1st rounders. He also picked a disproportionate amount of Russians in the depth rounds (relative to the league). With 3 prominent CHLers on the board and with Podkolzin still there, I think he holds true to his previous form: Cozens or Podkolzin here. My guess is Podkolzin.

To contrast, BUF goes with the US again. Boldy here.

EDM chooses Broberg. They swing for the fences with this one. The best alternative may be Cozens, but I think they shoot for the moon with this one.

ANA runs to the podium to take Cozens.

VAN has their choice of Caufield, Krebs and Zegras.

If Caufield supplants Boldy, then there's a good chance that Boldy is there for selection in his place.

Starting at 3, Chicago has to decide between a C or D. Can go either way. Likely down to Turcotte or Byram.
Colorado takes whomever Chicago passes on.
LA, I think they take Dach, who fits their penchant for size and fills the C need with Vilardi's back issues.
Detroit - wildcard. Logically, I see them going with Zegras. Makes the most sense for them. But, if Yzerman really likes Podkolzin, I can see him going that route. I think what is hurting Podkolzin from fans POV is that he was rated so high at the beginning of the year and didn't produce up to his lofty ranking. Is he really much different from Boldy? Both wingers and neither is likely to drive offense unlike a P. Kane, Kucherov, Rantanen, Marner.
Buffalo - They are deep at C, so I can see them taking Boldy. Can go with a C here, but if you're shifting that C to wing, is that guy going to be better than Boldy at that position? Probably no.
Edmonton - can take anything they want. I have them going with Cozens here simply because they have some D and with RNH needing a contract soon, as he is 5 years into his current deal, with 2 years left. If they end up moving him, Cozens can start off as a Winger, then shift to 2C.
Anaheim - I see them with Broberg. If Edmonton does take Broberg, then Anaheim takes Cozens.
Vancouver - That leaves them with Krebs, Newhook, Harley, Caulfield, Podkolzin, Soderstrom here.
Hoping there is a surprise between 6-9 that helps the Canucks. See how it goes.

LA is the fit for Dach, agreed.

I think DET goes with Podkolzin because there isn't that Kane/Kucherov/Marner option available. Zegras isn't on that level. Podkolzin, while lacking the numbers, has near everything else. By earlier mocks, he should not have been available at pick6. I don't think Yzerman overthinks this one.

Agreed on BUF taking Boldy.

There's nothing coming on defense for EDM. Broberg makes more sense than Cozens for them.

Yes, ANA takes Cozens.

DET and EDM are the swing picks. DET decides how far Podkolzin falls and EDM can upend the order by taking Broberg. Throw in a wildcard like Caufield, and it stands to reason that at least 1 of the top8 will fall to the Canucks. 2 if Caufield gets taken by BUF, DET or ANA.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I want Caufield at 10. He's the scorer that I want to see with Horvat on the second line. Horvat and X (Virtanen if he figures it out, Pearson?) can retrieve pucks and take a little pressure off the smaller guy, who can shoot better than alot nhlers already..

 

[Star Ocean]

Not sure why broberg is hyped over söderström. Söderström was the one who played top4 D in SHL for 40 games while broberg played tier 2 in 40 games. It is the classic short international tournament weighs more than regular season.

At 2018 hlinka gretzky, Söderström got injured in groupplay (broke his finger) and couldnt do himself justice.

At 2019 u18 wjc soderstrom got concussed in the second game. Couldnt do himself justice here either. However in the two games he played, he was voted best player in one of them.

From my swedish opinion though, victor will be the better player. He is better at the blueline and a better passer.

He is also at 6 inch now so he is not short.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Fanspeak has a tool who is simulating the NHL Draft. You can try it here: Fanspeak's On the Clock NHL Mock Draft Simulator

My results were too good to be true (AI sucks, I guess):
10: RW VASILI PODKOLZIN
40: G SPENCER KNIGHT
71: D JORDAN SPENCE
102: C REECE NEWKIRK
133: D RONALD ATTARD
156: C ANTTI SAARELA
164: LW MICHAEL GILDON
180: C BLAKE MURRAY
195: D KIM NOUSIAINEN

This thing isbroken! I got:

Bowen Byram
Vile heinola
Tobias Bjornfoot
Ryder Donovan
Ronald attard
Blake Murray
Anti saarela
Dustin wolf
Mason primeau

 

[Hansen]

Generally, I haven't seen a player that is hyped throughout the year as a top5 pick get dropped out of the top10 by draft time. It's just a rare occurrence. Podkolzin still should get picked high. I don't expect him to be there at pick #10.

Zegras is unlikely to be picked within the top5. Turcotte and Byram go before him and Dach/Cozens offer more tools. Could you see Mike Futa going with Zegras over the big centre options in Dach or Cozens? I'd say it's unlikely considering LA's draft tendencies.

After that, we have Steve Yzerman, who in Tampa picked mainly CHLers with his 1st rounders. He also picked a disproportionate amount of Russians in the depth rounds (relative to the league). With 3 prominent CHLers on the board and with Podkolzin still there, I think he holds true to his previous form: Cozens or Podkolzin here. My guess is Podkolzin.

To contrast, BUF goes with the US again. Boldy here.

EDM chooses Broberg. They swing for the fences with this one. The best alternative may be Cozens, but I think they shoot for the moon with this one.

ANA runs to the podium to take Cozens.

VAN has their choice of Caufield, Krebs and Zegras.

If Caufield supplants Boldy, then there's a good chance that Boldy is there for selection in his place.





LA is the fit for Dach, agreed.

I think DET goes with Podkolzin because there isn't that Kane/Kucherov/Marner option available. Zegras isn't on that level. Podkolzin, while lacking the numbers, has near everything else. By earlier mocks, he should not have been available at pick6. I don't think Yzerman overthinks this one.

Agreed on BUF taking Boldy.

There's nothing coming on defense for EDM. Broberg makes more sense than Cozens for them.

Yes, ANA takes Cozens.

DET and EDM are the swing picks. DET decides how far Podkolzin falls and EDM can upend the order by taking Broberg. Throw in a wildcard like Caufield, and it stands to reason that at least 1 of the top8 will fall to the Canucks. 2 if Caufield gets taken by BUF, DET or ANA.

It’s happened twice in the last two years with Vilardi in 2017 and Dobson in 2018. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen but I wouldn’t be either if it does.

 

[y2kcanucks]

It’s being reported by Dhaliwal that the Canucks are leaning towards a defenseman at 10. So, in other words, these idiots haven’t learned a thing and are going to make another mistake just like their big blunder in 2016.

 

[lawrence]

It’s being reported by Dhaliwal that the Canucks are leaning towards a defenseman at 10. So, in other words, these idiots haven’t learned a thing and are going to make another mistake just like their big blunder in 2016.

When did he report this?

 

[y2kcanucks]

When did he report this?

This morning.

 

[Hansen]

For the first time ever, Benning has actually put up a decent smoke screen on what he plans to do with the pick. So many reports about wanting a dman, wanting one of the top C’s, wanting a scoring winger for Petey, wanting to trade the pick.

But we all know it’s really just that he doesn’t have a f***ing clue either

 

[Love]

It’s being reported by Dhaliwal that the Canucks are leaning towards a defenseman at 10. So, in other words, these idiots haven’t learned a thing and are going to make another mistake just like their big blunder in 2016.

Wow not good if true.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

It’s a criticism I don’t really understand. He’s a better skater than a guy like Boeser IMO - much quicker bursts in short spaces and only really lacks top end speed - and plays a type of game that is not overly reliant on speed or with-puck-elusiveness. It’s like people have this rule that says all small players must skate as well as Gaudreau to be effective, even when they play nothing like the guy.

The thought process is that the bigger the player the more they can rely on strength to help create room for themselves.

I think Caufield's skating is getting overly criticised by some, and I'd be fine with that pick at 10. I do think that looking into if Caufield can improve his skating easily. That's what Debrincat did and why he is so successful now.

 

[ginner classic]

IMO - Caufield is the guy the scouts were talking about in the Canucks Draft Strategy video in terms of a guy who hasn’t paid the price in the middle yet but he can learn to.

You don't think that was Zegras?