2019 Draft Discussion

[kingsboy11]

Well there's our answer. Much earlier than previous years and now I feel more stressed out knowing its much sooner.

 

[Brodeur]

Woot, I was just about to post Elliotte's tweet. I'll happily pay out that donut from my previous post. I wonder if some NHL folks complained about the timing of the previous lotteries as well. Didn't make a ton of sense to shake up the order after the last big U18 tournament of the year.

 

[KINGS17]

Here are the odds for the bottom 5 teams in the standings to acquire a top 3 pick, or the #1 overall.

PICK	TEAM	GP	RECORD	PTS	PPG	ROW	STREAK	L10	TOP 3	#1 OVR
1	Ottawa COL	70	23-41-6	52	0.743	23	Lost 4	1-8-1	49.4%	18.5%
2	Detroit	70	24-36-10	58	0.829	21	Lost 3	1-7-2	38.8%	13.5%
3	Los Angeles	69	25-36-8	58	0.841	23	Won 1	2-6-2	33.9%	11.5%
4	New Jersey	70	25-36-9	59	0.843	24	Lost 7	2-7-1	28.8%	9.5%
5	Anaheim	71	28-34-9	65	0.916	25	Won 1	4-6-0	26.1%	8.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm actually really glad the lottery's sooner. No sense in needlessly waiting until the end of April to find out exactly where the Kings are picking and which prospect(s) to focus on.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Hopefully Xmas comes in April for Kings fans.

 

[King'sPawn]

Here are the odds for the bottom 5 teams in the standings to acquire a top 3 pick, or the #1 overall.

PICK	TEAM	GP	RECORD	PTS	PPG	ROW	STREAK	L10	TOP 3	#1 OVR
1	Ottawa COL	70	23-41-6	52	0.743	23	Lost 4	1-8-1	49.4%	18.5%
2	Detroit	70	24-36-10	58	0.829	21	Lost 3	1-7-2	38.8%	13.5%
3	Los Angeles	69	25-36-8	58	0.841	23	Won 1	2-6-2	33.9%	11.5%
4	New Jersey	70	25-36-9	59	0.843	24	Lost 7	2-7-1	28.8%	9.5%
5	Anaheim	71	28-34-9	65	0.916	25	Won 1	4-6-0	26.1%	8.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Just to add, this link shows the exact odds of each pick:
2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

At #3, the Kings have a 33.9% chance of picking top 3. 13.2% chance of falling one spot (picking 4th). 37.7% chance of falling two spots (picking 5th). And 15.2% chance of falling 3 spots (picking 6th). At this point they cannot fall further than 6th overall.

 

[BallPointHammer]

From Tankathon today 3-13-2019
Kings odds top 1, top 2 ..... top 6
top 1 = 11.5%
top 2 = 22.8%
top 3 = 33.9%
top 4 = 47.1%
top 5 = 84.8%
top 6 = 100%

Seeing all the possibilities things aren't completely horrid. From the chart showing 20 or so top 31 prospect rankings (its shown in Kings posts somewhere).

Edit: from post by kovacro last Friday
mynhldraft:com

Consensus so far .....
Podkolzin - 3rd 8 votes, 4th 4 votes
Cozens - 3rd 6 votes, 4th 4 votes
Dach - 3rd 3 votes, 4th 4 votes
Of course Hughes and Kakko are 1-2

Kings would still get a very good player. We have almost a 50% chance of drafting at "worst" the 4th best prospect.

 

[AzKing]

Wherever the Kings draft in the top 5-6, they will get a player who has top 3 talent. It then will be up to them to develop it and also get the player who has the right attitude.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

So....I get a 30% chance to see Hughes or Kakko - OR maybe BOTH, since I live 7 miles from Pepsi Ctr in Denver...1 of them live and one of them on Center Ice with the Kings. Would prefer the Kings get one of them and the Lanche end up with Cozens! Haha. I am not an Avs fan, nor anti-Avs. After being here since 2006, just watch several of their games on TV and go to about 5 to 6. The 2 times the Kings are here, of course. I wanted to see the Reign, but the AHL stadium is almost to Ft Collins, one hour drive and was a blizzard yesterday. I had no power from 10 AM to 10 PM.

Avs will be adding Cale Makar soon on D, if he signs and now have a chance to get Kakko or Hughes? Damn.

 

[Reaper45]

So....I get a 30% chance to see Hughes or Kakko - OR maybe BOTH, since I live 7 miles from Pepsi Ctr in Denver...1 of them live and one of them on Center Ice with the Kings. Would prefer the Kings get one of them and the Lanche end up with Cozens! Haha. I am not an Avs fan, nor anti-Avs. After being here since 2006, just watch several of their games on TV and go to about 5 to 6. The 2 times the Kings are here, of course. I wanted to see the Reign, but the AHL stadium is almost to Ft Collins, one hour drive and was a blizzard yesterday. I had no power from 10 AM to 10 PM.

Avs will be adding Cale Makar soon on D, if he signs and now have a chance to get Kakko or Hughes? Damn.

Ft. Collins is nice. Went there a few years back. Wife wants to move to Colorado since most of her friends did. I dont know if a California boy could ever adjust.

 

[johnjm22]

With the Kings' current position (3rd from last in the NHL), I ran 10 draft simulations:

LOTTERY	RESULT
Sim 1	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 2	Kings Get 3rd Overall Pick
Sim 3	Kings Get 4th Overall Pick
Sim 4	Kings Get 4th Overall Pick
Sim 5	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 6	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 7	Kings Get 6th Overall Pick
Sim 8	Kings Get 2nd Overall Pick
Sim 9	Kings Get 6th Overall Pick
Sim 10	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Average draft position 4.5 overall. Only landed in the top 2 once.

That's kind of sobering and puts into perspective how low our chances really are of getting Hughes/Kakko.

 

[YP44]

come on detroit get your shit together.

 

[YP44]

Imagine if Colorado win the lottery with their own first and then gets another top 3 with Ottawa's!!

Kinda want to see it happen.

 

[King'sPawn]

With the Kings' current position (3rd from last in the NHL), I ran 10 draft simulations:

LOTTERY	RESULT
Sim 1	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 2	Kings Get 3rd Overall Pick
Sim 3	Kings Get 4th Overall Pick
Sim 4	Kings Get 4th Overall Pick
Sim 5	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 6	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick
Sim 7	Kings Get 6th Overall Pick
Sim 8	Kings Get 2nd Overall Pick
Sim 9	Kings Get 6th Overall Pick
Sim 10	Kings Get 5th Overall Pick

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Average draft position 4.5 overall. Only landed in the top 2 once.

That's kind of sobering and puts into perspective how low our chances really are of getting Hughes/Kakko.

They have the greatest singular chance of dropping two spots.

Heck, even the worst team (Senators/Avalanche) have a 50% chance of picking 4th overall.

They actually have a better chance of dropping go 4th than we do dropping to 5th.

The beauty of the lottery is that, while it's weighted, it's not guaranteed.

Pittsburgh was guaranteed at worst 2nd overall in 2004. Meaning they would get Ovechkin or Malkin.

Buffalo tanked hard in 2015 for Connor McDavid. They lost the lottery, but they were guaranteed 2nd overall (Eichel).

It wasn't until 2016 that they had lottery for the first three picks.

It sucks at the possibility of falling to 6th after such a lousy season, but I would take this system over what we had before, no contest.

 

[AnThGrt]

Honestly after the top 2 also I do have a preference in Turcotte/Byram personally yet really one can make an argument for any of Turcotte, Dach, Cozens, Byram, Zegras, Boldy, Podkolzin, or Krebs going 3rd. We will end up with a top player and possibly the best player from the draft. Obviously Kakko/Hughes would be sick, but a great draft to be in the 3-10 range.

 

[jfont]

Here are the odds for the bottom 5 teams in the standings to acquire a top 3 pick, or the #1 overall.

PICK	TEAM	GP	RECORD	PTS	PPG	ROW	STREAK	L10	TOP 3	#1 OVR
1	Ottawa COL	70	23-41-6	52	0.743	23	Lost 4	1-8-1	49.4%	18.5%
2	Detroit	70	24-36-10	58	0.829	21	Lost 3	1-7-2	38.8%	13.5%
3	Los Angeles	69	25-36-8	58	0.841	23	Won 1	2-6-2	33.9%	11.5%
4	New Jersey	70	25-36-9	59	0.843	24	Lost 7	2-7-1	28.8%	9.5%
5	Anaheim	71	28-34-9	65	0.916	25	Won 1	4-6-0	26.1%	8.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

time to sacrifice 1000 bulls

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Ft. Collins is nice. Went there a few years back. Wife wants to move to Colorado since most of her friends did. I dont know if a California boy could ever adjust.

It was an adjustment. I go back to Cali 4x a year and see family. I love it here - in 2-3 hours, I can drive to: Estes Park, Rocky Mt National Park, Vail, Breckenridge, Steamboat Springs, Ft Collins and so many amazing places. I'm in Denver and wanting to move up by Ft Collins this year. From here, have driven to Jackson Hole in 7 hours..can go south to Santa Fe in 5 hours. Have not been there yet. Durango in 7 hours. I have a whitewater raft and kayak and raft the Colorado near Kremmling - 2.5 hour drive. And by Fruita, near Moab, get there in 5 hours. Gone up to Mt Rushmore in 6+ hours.
Miss the California weather and beach, etc...but Winters are not too harsh - yesterdays blizzard was an 8 hour ordeal and sun out today. Weekend will be 48 degrees. Still wear shorts 8 months a year.

Keeping thread on topic - not surprised someone has rated Kakko over Hughes. Still believe Hughes goes #1. Kings will get an elite prospect...and #27ish and 34ish will be excellent prospects as well.
Look at last 4 drafts - King second rounders: 2015 Cernak, 2016 - Clague 2017 - JAD 2018 - Thomas...who just scored his 100th point! Oh, and Grundstrom (2016) and Durzi (2018) were Tor 2nd rounders.

 

[AzKing]

Honestly after the top 2 also I do have a preference in Turcotte/Byram personally yet really one can make an argument for any of Turcotte, Dach, Cozens, Byram, Zegras, Boldy, Podkolzin, or Krebs going 3rd. We will end up with a top player and possibly the best player from the draft. Obviously Kakko/Hughes would be sick, but a great draft to be in the 3-10 range.

This is the best way to maintain sanity and realize that any player we get out of the Top 10 prospects is going to be ultra talented.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

They have the greatest singular chance of dropping two spots.

Heck, even the worst team (Senators/Avalanche) have a 50% chance of picking 4th overall.

They actually have a better chance of dropping go 4th than we do dropping to 5th.

The beauty of the lottery is that, while it's weighted, it's not guaranteed.

Pittsburgh was guaranteed at worst 2nd overall in 2004. Meaning they would get Ovechkin or Malkin.

Buffalo tanked hard in 2015 for Connor McDavid. They lost the lottery, but they were guaranteed 2nd overall (Eichel).

It wasn't until 2016 that they had lottery for the first three picks.

It sucks at the possibility of falling to 6th after such a lousy season, but I would take this system over what we had before, no contest.

I totally agree. I like and appreciate the system. I just hate our situation within it

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Kakko is getting his tires pumped quite a bit right now.

I'm starting to think that the best pick in the draft is #2. You take whomever is left between Hughes/Kakko and call it a day. Doesn't require much thought.

In true LA Kings fashion, we will pick Podzolkin at #3, and he will never come to NA.

 

[AzKing]

Kakko is getting his tires pumped quite a bit right now.

I'm starting to think that the best pick in the draft is #2. You take whomever is left between Hughes/Kakko and call it a day. Doesn't require much thought.

In true LA Kings fashion, we will pick Podzolkin at #3, and he will never come to NA.

I think the current situation with Prokhorkin will be enough of a deterrent to keep Blake from drafting Podkolzin. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop out of the Top 10.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

I totally see Prok falling hard . It's been a draft theme. If we see that then we'll get as well not even cross our fingers that he falls to our second first round pick. Just cross him off our hopes list because word is out

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Who was the last highly touted Russian prospect to not come over to play in the NHL? And I’m not talking about a mid-late round pick, but a 1st or 2nd round quality guy.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I think the current situation with Prokhorkin will be enough of a deterrent to keep Blake from drafting Podkolzin. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop out of the Top 10.

Yep, I said as much a couple pages back.

However, if he does fall out of the top 10, and he does come to NA, he will be a Kopitar-tier steal of the draft.

 

[King'sPawn]

Who was the last highly touted Russian prospect to not come over to play in the NHL? And I’m not talking about a mid-late round pick, but a 1st or 2nd round quality guy.

Not to come over or not to pan out? Because the first one who came to mind was Nikolai Zherdev at 4th overall.

Edit: Actually, I was thinking of Nikita Filatov. Upon doing more research, one of the tragic stories was Alexei Cherepanov from 2007. He passed away not too long after being drafted.