Prospect Info: 2019 Draft Discussion: LA Kings pick 5th, 22nd overall

[member 88115]

He needs a center who can get him the puck...and he needs to realize that his career is on the line. Without those two things I don't see a big bounce back but I can't imagine he'll be worse than last year.

Toffoli did have 24 goals without Carter in 0217-18. Last year he did a terrible job at getting open for good scoring opportunities. But i also agree he would play much better with a healthy Carter. Toffoli needs a center with speed, and unfortunately Kopi is not that guy, hence they don't play together.

 

[kilowatt]

Can someone post the top 10 picks of The Athletic mock draft?

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Turcotte
4. Cozens
5. Byram
6. Zegras
7. Caufield
8. Dach
9. Krebs
10. Boldy

22. Brink

 

[Sleeping Dog]

View attachment 235841
LOL, if only they get so lucky.

I’m surprised they didn’t have Kakko at #5 to the Kings! I don’t think Byram falls to 22.

 

[BigKing]

How much do you expect Toffoli to bounce back, and what value does Toffoli have if he doesn't bounce back?

So he's horrible last year, right? 5% shooting percentage which is the lowest in his career. If he is at his 9% from the two years prior, he is at 20 goals.

He's in a contract year. Money is on the line. If he wants to earn another contract here and good money in general, he is going to need to produce.

I'd much rather roll the dice on him going hard in his contract year and trade him with more value as opposed to just tossing him away at his lowest value. He is not a long term problem that needs to be dealt with right now.

If he is back to being a 20 goal guy, he'll be a hot commodity as an expiring contract to a contender.

As for the talk of needing Carter...didn't he have his best year playing with Kopitar and Lucic?

 

[johnjm22]

Again, small sample size. There haven't been many first round goalies, so obviously there won't be many first round starting goalies. Out of the top scorers, how many of them were drafted in the top 5? Nobody is saying draft a goalie in the top 5. This is what irks me, the term "first rounder" has the connotation of a top 5 pick even if the pick is in the 20s.

Yes, and that's especially true nowadays because over time teams have been less and less willing to use 1st round picks on them.

NUMBER OF GOALIES TAKEN IN THE 1ST ROUND:
2018: 0
2017: 1 (26th)
2016: 0
2015: 1 (22nd)
2014: 0
2013: 0
2012: 2 (19th, 24th)
2011: 0
2010: 2 (11th, 27th)
2009: 0
2008: 2 (18th, 30th)
2007: 0
2006: 4 ( 11th, 15th, 23rd, 26th)
2005: 2 (5th, 21st)
2004: 4 (6th, 14th, 17th, 26th)
2003: 1 (1st)
2002: 3 (2nd, 25th, 29th)
2001: 4 (8th, 10th, 26th, 29th)
2000: 2 (1st, 9th)

Since not many goalies get taken in the 1st round any more, then some of the highest rated goalies of the draft are usually still available after the 1st round and often after the 2nd round too.

I think goaltending success is highly linked to development and a team defense, whereas the success of skaters is more on the individual (but not completely obviously). From this perspective I don't think it makes as much sense to use your high pick on a netminder.

 

[BigKing]

Yes, and that's especially true nowadays because over time teams have been less and less willing to use 1st round picks on them.

NUMBER OF GOALIES TAKEN IN THE 1ST ROUND:
2018: 0
2017: 1 (26th)
2016: 0
2015: 1 (22nd)
2014: 0
2013: 0
2012: 2 (19th, 24th)
2011: 0
2010: 2 (11th, 27th)
2009: 0
2008: 2 (18th, 30th)
2007: 0
2006: 4 ( 11th, 15th, 23rd, 26th)
2005: 2 (5th, 21st)
2004: 4 (6th, 14th, 17th, 26th)
2003: 1 (1st)
2002: 3 (2nd, 25th, 29th)
2001: 4 (8th, 10th, 26th, 29th)
2000: 2 (1st, 9th)

Since not many goalies get taken in the 1st round any more, then some of the highest rated goalies of the draft are usually still available after the 1st round and often after the 2nd round too.

I think goaltending success is highly linked to development and a team defense, whereas the success of skaters is more on the individual (but not completely obviously). From this perspective I don't think it makes as much sense to use your high pick on a netminder.

Nailed it. The reason why there aren't as many 1st round goalies taken is that you don't need to take them in the 1st round.

They are QBs in fantasy football. You still might miss on the RB/WR you take in the first few rounds but I'd rather have more kicks at that bucket in the higher end than pass on a 1st round RB/WR for a QB when I know that nobody else is going to be drafting QBs until later on.

 

[LAKings88]

I’m surprised they didn’t have Kakko at #5 to the Kings! I don’t think Byram falls to 22.

It’s a random generator. You select the picks.

 

[Brodeur]

Well, with fantasy football you know you're getting an NFL QB. I don't think it's the best comparison with drafting 18 year old goalies. The equivalent argument would be like saying don't draft a QB in the first round in real life, look at Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. It's easy to say don't draft a goalie in the first round and then cherry pick the goalie who pans out of the 15 later round picks and say "I told you so."

Again, I think there's a connotation difference that a lot of folks make.

22nd overall pick is a first round pick.
Patrick Kane, Alex Barkov, Mitch Marner were first round picks.
Therefore 22nd overall pick is akin to Kane, Barkov, Marner.

Obviously that logic is off. Nobody is saying take Knight over Zegras, Turcotte, Dach, Cozens. It's a different conversation if we're talking about taking Knight over Tomasino, Suzuki, McMichael, Afanasyev, etc.

 

[BigKing]

Well, with fantasy football you know you're getting an NFL QB. I don't think it's the best comparison with drafting 18 year old goalies. The equivalent argument would be like saying don't draft a QB in the first round in real life, look at Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. It's easy to say don't draft a goalie in the first round and then cherry pick the goalie who pans out of the 15 later round picks and say "I told you so."

Again, I think there's a connotation difference that a lot of folks make.

22nd overall pick is a first round pick.
Patrick Kane, Alex Barkov, Mitch Marner were first round picks.
Therefore 22nd overall pick is akin to Kane, Barkov, Marner.

Obviously that logic is off. Nobody is saying take Knight over Zegras, Turcotte, Dach, Cozens. It's a different conversation if we're talking about taking Knight over Tomasino, Suzuki, McMichael, Afanasyev, etc.

I'd much rather take my chances with a Suzuki v. a 4th round forward over Knight v. a 4th round goalie.

Even from 20-30, it appears to make more sense to take a skater since most every other team isn't taking a goalie anyways.

 

[Brodeur]

I'd much rather take my chances with a Suzuki v. a 4th round forward over Knight v. a 4th round goalie.

Even from 20-30, it appears to make more sense to take a skater since most every other team isn't taking a goalie anyways.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it'd be a more compelling argument if you put in a name of a late round goalie. Raccoon Jesus mentioned he'd take Dustin Wolf with a later pick. It's an exercise in hindsight to say years later that you would have taken so and so in the 4th round. It's a more practical albeit harder exercise to come up with names in the moment.

 

[LAKings88]

https://thehockeywriters.com/simon-holmstrom-2019-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Hoping LA nabs him.

 

[Brodeur]

I've seen a few of the Swedish posters go to bat for Holmstrom. Was supposed to be a top prospect going into the season but various injuries wrecked his season. Even when he was healthy, they said he looked to be off because of the hip surgery. Feels like a decent gamble at pick 33.

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it'd be a more compelling argument if you put in a name of a late round goalie. Raccoon Jesus mentioned he'd take Dustin Wolf with a later pick. It's an exercise in hindsight to say years later that you would have taken so and so in the 4th round. It's a more practical albeit harder exercise to come up with names in the moment.

I would take Dustin Wolf and Trent Miner with 3rd-5th round picks over Spencer Knight in the 1st and early 2nd.

So he's horrible last year, right? 5% shooting percentage which is the lowest in his career. If he is at his 9% from the two years prior, he is at 20 goals.

He's in a contract year. Money is on the line. If he wants to earn another contract here and good money in general, he is going to need to produce.

I'd much rather roll the dice on him going hard in his contract year and trade him with more value as opposed to just tossing him away at his lowest value. He is not a long term problem that needs to be dealt with right now.

If he is back to being a 20 goal guy, he'll be a hot commodity as an expiring contract to a contender.

As for the talk of needing Carter...didn't he have his best year playing with Kopitar and Lucic?

I guess I just don't see a huge rebound year. He scored 34 points this year, and he averages aroung 50 points when he plays a full season.

Kopitar scores 60 this season when he averages 72, and he's the heartless, gutless captain who embodies entitlement and a terrible culture (according to some, not you specifically).

Frankly I wanted Toffoli traded last offseason, as I thought he was a bigger issue than Pearson, despite scoring more. I would be completely fine with packaging Toffoli with the 22nd (or 33rd) pick to move up in the draft, because I think the upside of rolling the dice with him is outweighed by the risk of treading water with him.

 

[tomd]

I would take Dustin Wolf and Trent Miner with 3rd-5th round picks over Spencer Knight in the 1st and early 2nd.



I guess I just don't see a huge rebound year. He scored 34 points this year, and he averages aroung 50 points when he plays a full season.

Kopitar scores 60 this season when he averages 72, and he's the heartless, gutless captain who embodies entitlement and a terrible culture (according to some, not you specifically).

Frankly I wanted Toffoli traded last offseason, as I thought he was a bigger issue than Pearson, despite scoring more. I would be completely fine with packaging Toffoli with the 22nd (or 33rd) pick to move up in the draft, because I think the upside of rolling the dice with him is outweighed by the risk of treading water with him.

I just don't see how one year of Toffoli is anywhere near enough of an incentive to entice a team to move down in the draft.

 

[BigKing]

I would take Dustin Wolf and Trent Miner with 3rd-5th round picks over Spencer Knight in the 1st and early 2nd.



I guess I just don't see a huge rebound year. He scored 34 points this year, and he averages aroung 50 points when he plays a full season.

Kopitar scores 60 this season when he averages 72, and he's the heartless, gutless captain who embodies entitlement and a terrible culture (according to some, not you specifically).

Frankly I wanted Toffoli traded last offseason, as I thought he was a bigger issue than Pearson, despite scoring more. I would be completely fine with packaging Toffoli with the 22nd (or 33rd) pick to move up in the draft, because I think the upside of rolling the dice with him is outweighed by the risk of treading water with him.

Totally fair if you feel he won't rebound and kudos to you for wanting to trade him last off-season.

I just don't think there is a real risk of "treading water" with him unless you are worried about Blake handing him a long-term extension after the season.

 

[King'sPawn]

Totally fair if you feel he won't rebound and kudos to you for wanting to trade him last off-season.

I just don't think there is a real risk of "treading water" with him unless you are worried about Blake handing him a long-term extension after the season.

Maybe I should be, but I'm not.

I'm just over thinking "this could be the year he breaks out" and find myself underwhelmed.

So, all things considered, you're probably right it's better to hang on to him. I mean, I really hope he can't do much worse.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Interesting tidbit from Pierre LeBrun’s article on theathletic.com.

Vancouver owns the 10th overall pick and the Canucks are a team to keep an eye on. I think they would both move up or move down depending on offers.

But the real action might be in the second half of the draft’s first round.

“I think more so than in several years, I’ve heard more chatter about picks moving from 15 down,’’ said one NHL team executive this week.

 

[Brodeur]

Makes sense since there's some teams with some draft pick capital to move up.

OTT: 19, 33, 44
NYR: 20, 49, 58
LAK: 22, 33, 64
CAR: 28, 36, 37, 59
NJD: 34, 55, 61, 70

In particular, I could see Carolina parlaying some of those picks for immediate help.

 

[BigKing]

Makes sense since there's some teams with some draft pick capital to move up.

OTT: 19, 33, 44
NYR: 20, 49, 58
LAK: 22, 33, 64
CAR: 28, 36, 37, 59
NJD: 34, 55, 61, 70

In particular, I could see Carolina parlaying some of those picks for immediate help.

Would you move 22 for 28 and 36?

Say they really, really like Knight. Still get your guy but also get the 36th or 37th pick?

 

[King'sPawn]

Would you move 22 for 28 and 36?

Say they really, really like Knight. Still get your guy but also get the 36th or 37th pick?

I'd do that in a heartbeat. An extra second to move down 6 spots in the first? Done.

 

[Brodeur]

Would you move 22 for 28 and 36?

Say they really, really like Knight. Still get your guy but also get the 36th or 37th pick?

I suppose it depends on who's there at 22 and/or if you're absolutely confident that the guy you're drafting at 22 would still be there at 28. I think sometimes we let the NFL Draft strategy creep in when it doesn't exactly transfer over to hockey as well. I remember Dean Lombardi saying something along the the lines of "there's no worse feeling than trading down then missing out on your guy."

One end of the horror story in trading down was Anaheim in 2008. They moved 12 for 17 and 28, then 28 for 35 and 39. On paper 12 for 17+35+39 seems pretty good. Allegedly they were targeting Erik Karlsson who they thought they could still get at 17, but Ottawa moved up for him. They'd end up with Jake Gardiner instead. So the opportunity cost between Karlsson and Gardiner was picks 35 and 39 which were used on Nic Deschamps and Eric O'Dell.

22 for 28 and 36 might be a little expensive for the team trading up. Comparable trades in recent memory:

2010: 22+113 for 27+57
2011: 21 for 30+39, 24 for 35+48
2014: 20+179 for 27+62
2015: (couple trades) 24 for 34+61+68
2018: 22 for 26+48

It's a cop out answer, but it depends on who's there and who the table values.

I'd do that in a heartbeat. An extra second to move down 6 spots in the first? Done.

It's fun to pile on the Leafs for trading 30 and 39 for 22 in 2011, only to draft Tyler Biggs and see Anaheim use their picks on Rickard Rakell and John Gibson. But that deal is kind of the worst/best case scenario depending on how you look at it. Hitting on the extra pick has historically been tougher than we like to imagine.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Turcotte
4. Cozens
5. Byram
6. Zegras
7. Caufield
8. Dach
9. Krebs
10. Boldy

22. Brink

Thank you so much

 

[BigKing]

Interesting Dillman article with Yanneti in The Athletic. Give him five names to talk about:

Byram/Caufield/Dach/Cozens/Turcotte

Says good things about all of them but kept the discussion short on Byram and Turcotte. Really praised Caufield and kind of had similar praise for Dach/Cozens but seemed to like Dach more.

Hard to glean anything because he isn't going to tip his hand, but Yanneti really likes Caufield. Doesn't mean he is the pick, but he seems to really dig him. At the same time, Dillman provided the names and used Caufields since she wrote a piece on him.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

How much do you expect Toffoli to bounce back, and what value does Toffoli have if he doesn't bounce back?

Around 27 goals total, KP.

 

[regulate]

I've seen a few of the Swedish posters go to bat for Holmstrom. Was supposed to be a top prospect going into the season but various injuries wrecked his season. Even when he was healthy, they said he looked to be off because of the hip surgery. Feels like a decent gamble at pick 33.

He'd be a great pick up at 33. I sense someone will take a chance on him prior due to his higher ceiling than most players in that range, despite the injuries.