Prospect Info: 2019 Draft Discussion: LA Kings pick 5th, 22nd overall

[johnjm22]

Byram at 5 and then we trade 22/33 up for Newhook?

I think we have a better chance of getting a good player with two picks as oppossed to one. Even if that one pick is higher.

 

[BigKing]

Maybe Bernier didn't live up to expectations, but this is the thing that grinds my gears. Did you look at the other players drafted in the same area? The tendency to look down the draft list and pick out Claude Giroux's name but that's unfair cherry picking. Compare Bernier against guys like Peter Mueller, James Sheppard, Michael Frolik, Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, or Chris Stewart. Bernier doesn't look so bad compared with those names.

I wanted Little that year. Pretty decent career and still more valuable than Bernier at this point. Bernier only played 62 games in a Kings uniform while Little has played for Atlanta/WPG his entire career. Felt Little was BPA at that point but DL needed to build from the net out.

That said, they could have taken any number of stiffs since that 1st round is pretty ugly. Lewis actually pushes for Top 10 if you redraft and only use the guys that were taken in the 1st round!

It just underscores that it is a crapshoot so an element of luck is needed. It does seem that this luck has not been on the side of 1st round goalies for quite awhile now: including all three from this 2006 draft. Yikes Helenius and Irving.

 

[Brodeur]

It just underscores that it is a crapshoot so an element of luck is needed. It does seem that this luck has not been on the side of 1st round goalies for quite awhile now: including all three from this 2006 draft. Yikes Helenius and Irving.

Like I said earlier, there have been 12 first round goalies (plus Samsonov who was an AHL rookie this year). Varlamov was taken in the 2006 1st round too and he's had a respectable career. Their hit rate seems about the same as compared to other skaters.

05: Price|Rask
06: Bernier|Helenius|Varlamov|Irving
07: none
08: Pickard|McCollum
09: none
10: Campbell|Visentin
11: none
12: Vasilevskiy|Subban
13: none
14: none

Even with Helenius and Irving, compare it with the players they were drafted around. Lots of yikes for the other picks too.

- Helenius|Wishart|Lewis|Stewart|Mitera|Fischer
- Irving|Vishnevskiy|Foligno|Summers|Corrente

That's kind of my point, people who rag on first round goalies always seem to imply that there's a treasure trove of forwards/defensemen that got bypassed when that's typically not the case.

 

[BigKing]

Like I said earlier, there have been 12 first round goalies (plus Samsonov who was an AHL rookie this year). Varlamov was taken in the 2006 1st round too and he's had a respectable career. Their hit rate seems about the same as compared to other skaters.

05: Price|Rask
06: Bernier|Helenius|Varlamov|Irving
07: none
08: Pickard|McCollum
09: none
10: Campbell|Visentin
11: none
12: Vasilevskiy|Subban
13: none
14: none

Even with Helenius and Irving, compare it with the players they were drafted around. Lots of yikes for the other picks too.

- Helenius|Wishart|Lewis|Stewart|Mitera|Fischer
- Irving|Vishnevskiy|Foligno|Summers|Corrente

That's kind of my point, people who rag on first round goalies always seem to imply that there's a treasure trove of forwards/defensemen that got bypassed when that's typically not the case.

That draft is a horror show of a 1st round, for the most part.

As for the bolded, I think it is more like my Fantasy QB analogy. It isn't necessarily that there is a treasure trove of forwards/defenseman taken right around those spots, it's simply that the 1st round goalies are generally not worth more than the ones taken later whereas most of your #1/2 Cs and #1/2 defenseman are probably higher draft picks. It seems like it is smarter to take your shot on a skater in the 1st because there seems to be more value in drafting a goalie later or even just signing one as an UDFA.

I look to you as the draft expert on here so you probably have stats to refute this but this is how I feel with no stats to support my claim.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Can someone post the top 10 picks of The Athletic mock draft?

 

[King'sPawn]

Watched my first highlight video on Dach. Real nice one-on-one moves against the goalie but kind of slow looking and sleepy.

Then you watch Byram and it is effing crazy how many of the plays he actually looks like a forward joining the rush. Looks like a better goal scorer then Dach. Seems really dynamic. The video I watched didn't show any defensive highlights though but, ****, put him at wing if he can't play defense. Joking, but barely.

My opinion, but from a style of play point of view, Dach looks a lot like Kopitar when you don't look at highlight reels.

Byram looks a lot like Morgan Rielly.

If you want to watch players in game action, I advise going to prospectshifts.com. They make isolated videos of several prospects throughout the season. So, you're likely to watch about 10-25 minute videos.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I think we have a better chance of getting a good player with two picks as oppossed to one. Even if that one pick is higher.

This. I think Newhook may well end up being better than : Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Boldy, Caufield, Zegras. I hope they trad up the 22 + to get him, or even trade back to get him...but prefer they can draft Byram and move up to get one of: Newhook, Kaliyev, Boldy, if they fall some. All of these 3 will be gone by 15 or so.

Speaking of Boldy...seriously, how and why are: Dach, Zegras, Cozens better than him?
I am impressed by his footage I've seen and is a 2 way, complete player and is 6'2" 190...think
he led (or close to leading) US team in PP and SH goals. I also read that he could have had more points, but was the most defensively responsible player on his line and worked hard both ways.
Are those other 3 really better?
Is it just because he's a LW? WHo cares? Yes, #1 center is preferred. But what if Boldy
is the BPA? Take him. You can't force the other 3 to become #1 centers if they are more
like #2 centers.

Boldy can also play center and has some. He's more of a power forward than those 3, with
possible exception of Dach. But if Boldy is the better player, you can trade back a few slots and take him and get another asset. One that can be used to trade up with the #22 to get Kaliyev or Newhook.
Sure, the Kings can get a good player at 22....but probably not as good as Newhook.

 

[BigKing]

My opinion, but from a style of play point of view, Dach looks a lot like Kopitar when you don't look at highlight reels.

Byram looks a lot like Morgan Rielly.

If you want to watch players in game action, I advise going to prospectshifts.com. They make isolated videos of several prospects throughout the season. So, you're likely to watch about 10-25 minute videos.

Yeah...it was late last night so I knew I was just seeing goals/assists and it really wasn't a true scouting session (if my viewing would ever be called that) but Byram just jumped off the screen.

Dach's dekes were extremely effortless and devastating, however. I just wanted to see more speed jumping off the screen at me but guys his size generally don't look like burners out there.

 

[BigKing]

This.

Pretty sure he means not trading up by adding another pick to 22. He'd rather stay at 22 and 33 then move up 6-7 spots and lose 33 to do it.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

With two selections in both the third and fourth rounds, I'd look at taking the best goalie available with one of those picks.

 

[tomd]

This. I think Newhook may well end up being better than : Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Boldy, Caufield, Zegras. I hope they trad up the 22 + to get him, or even trade back to get him...but prefer they can draft Byram and move up to get one of: Newhook, Kaliyev, Boldy, if they fall some. All of these 3 will be gone by 15 or so.

Speaking of Boldy...seriously, how and why are: Dach, Zegras, Cozens better than him?
I am impressed by his footage I've seen and is a 2 way, complete player and is 6'2" 190...think
he led (or close to leading) US team in PP and SH goals. I also read that he could have had more points, but was the most defensively responsible player on his line and worked hard both ways.
Are those other 3 really better?
Is it just because he's a LW? WHo cares? Yes, #1 center is preferred. But what if Boldy
is the BPA? Take him. You can't force the other 3 to become #1 centers if they are more
like #2 centers.

Boldy can also play center and has some. He's more of a power forward than those 3, with
possible exception of Dach. But if Boldy is the better player, you can trade back a few slots and take him and get another asset. One that can be used to trade up with the #22 to get Kaliyev or Newhook.
Sure, the Kings can get a good player at 22....but probably not as good as Newhook.

My guess is that Boldy is taken at #7 or #8 and that Newhook won't get past #12 (and could go #9 or #10).

 

[regulate]

With two selections in both the third and fourth rounds, I'd look at taking the best goalie available with one of those picks.

Rosen hinted they like Knight and Wolf. I suspect if Knight is there at 33 they may take him. If Knight is taken elsewhere they might grab Wolf with one of the 3rd round picks if he is still in play.

 

[King'sPawn]

Rosen hinted they like Knight and Wolf. I suspect if Knight is there at 33 they may take him. If Knight is taken elsewhere they might grab Wolf with one of the 3rd round picks if he is still in play.

I'm still thinking all this does is suggest the Kings are planning to pick a goalie, but they don't want to tip their hand too much as to who.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Maybe Bernier didn't live up to expectations, but this is the thing that grinds my gears. Did you look at the other players drafted in the same area? The tendency to look down the draft list and pick out Claude Giroux's name but that's unfair cherry picking. Compare Bernier against guys like Peter Mueller, James Sheppard, Michael Frolik, Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, or Chris Stewart. Bernier doesn't look so bad compared with those names.

That's very true, but I'm not convinced it's about that. Bernier's draft was actually strange in that there were four first round Gs (Bernier, Helenius, Varlamov, Irving), but in general, goalies in the 2nd and 3rd round are offering mostly similar or better ability at much better value. i.e. is getting Spencer Knight at 22 really that much better than getting, say, Dustin Wolf in the 4th?

Just looking historically, pick a draft and look at the goalies in the 1st round vs. elsewhere: Goalie Draft Picks (2013-2009) - NHL - DraftSite.com

Even in the Vasilevsky draft, he was picked at 19. Subban at 24. But I'd be hard-pressed to pick Vas over Murray at 83, Andersen at 87, Hellebuyck at 130. Chet Pickard at 18 and Thomas McCollum at 30 vs. Markstrom and Allen in the 2nd and Holtby at 93. And so on.

Just like any other position absolutely there are exceptions, it's just a very unique position where, unlike forwards and dmen in general, top-level talent is readily available in nearly every draft and nearly every round due to limited pro slots at the position. Arguably the best longevity goalie of the generation is Lundqvist and he was a last round pick.

Circling back to the boldfaced, I agree that it comes back to take your guy regardless of slot. I just think it's a LOT easier to find goaltending value in the middle rounds, hence the opportunity cost of taking one in the 1st. Goalies are voodoo, and while 1st round pick guys seem to offer more certainty of an NHL career, they don't seem to offer much more certainty of a really really good one.

 

[Brodeur]

That's very true, but I'm not convinced it's about that. Bernier's draft was actually strange in that there were four first round Gs (Bernier, Helenius, Varlamov, Irving), but in general, goalies in the 2nd and 3rd round are offering mostly similar or better ability at much better value. i.e. is getting Spencer Knight at 22 really that much better than getting, say, Dustin Wolf in the 4th?

Just looking historically, pick a draft and look at the goalies in the 1st round vs. elsewhere: Goalie Draft Picks (2013-2009) - NHL - DraftSite.com

Even in the Vasilevsky draft, he was picked at 19. Subban at 24. But I'd be hard-pressed to pick Vas over Murray at 83, Andersen at 87, Hellebuyck at 130. Chet Pickard at 18 and Thomas McCollum at 30 vs. Markstrom and Allen in the 2nd and Holtby at 93. And so on.

Just like any other position absolutely there are exceptions, it's just a very unique position where, unlike forwards and dmen in general, top-level talent is readily available in nearly every draft and nearly every round due to limited pro slots at the position. Arguably the best longevity goalie of the generation is Lundqvist and he was a last round pick.

Circling back to the boldfaced, I agree that it comes back to take your guy regardless of slot. I just think it's a LOT easier to find goaltending value in the middle rounds, hence the opportunity cost of taking one in the 1st. Goalies are voodoo, and while 1st round pick guys seem to offer more certainty of an NHL career, they don't seem to offer much more certainty of a really really good one.

The opportunity cost is overlooked at times, as if you're guaranteed to be passing on a surefire top 6 forward or top 4 D. The back half of the first round historically certainly has those sort of players but at a rate that most of us armchair GMs would overestimate.

2012 goalies: Vasilevskiy, Subban, Stolarz, Korpisalo, Altshuller, Gillies, Driedger, Paterson, Murray, Andersen, Maguire, Hellebuyck, Tremblay, Olson, Ullmark, Brassard, Mazanec, Langhammer, Phillips, Whitney, Tomkins

By just listing Murray, Andersen, and Hellebuyck it seems to imply that hitting on a later round goalie seems more likely if you ignore the guys who didn't hit in between. And Mark Yannetti was asked once during an interview if there was ever a guy that the Kings were targeting but got sniped, and he mentioned that the Kings were aiming to take Hellebuyck at 151 but Winnipeg selected him at 130.

And what was Tampa's opportunity cost in Vasilevskiy ? Brady Skjei and Mike Matheson are solid D, but I don't know that I'd take them even with the benefit of hindsight. Plus this is again an exercise in cherry picking names.

Again, I just don't like a blanket statement of "Don't do this." And regarding longevity goalie of the generation, you could probably make a pretty good argument for Roberto Luongo who went 4th overall in 1997.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The opportunity cost is overlooked at times, as if you're guaranteed to be passing on a surefire top 6 forward or top 4 D. The back half of the first round historically certainly has those sort of players but at a rate that most of us armchair GMs would overestimate.

2012 goalies: Vasilevskiy, Subban, Stolarz, Korpisalo, Altshuller, Gillies, Driedger, Paterson, Murray, Andersen, Maguire, Hellebuyck, Tremblay, Olson, Ullmark, Brassard, Mazanec, Langhammer, Phillips, Whitney, Tomkins

By just listing Murray, Andersen, and Hellebuyck it seems to imply that hitting on a later round goalie seems more likely if you ignore the guys who didn't hit in between. And Mark Yannetti was asked once during an interview if there was ever a guy that the Kings were targeting but got sniped, and he mentioned that the Kings were aiming to take Hellebuyck at 151 but Winnipeg selected him at 130.

And what was Tampa's opportunity cost in Vasilevskiy ? Brady Skjei and Mike Matheson are solid D, but I don't know that I'd take them even with the benefit of hindsight. Plus this is again an exercise in cherry picking names.

Again, I just don't like a blanket statement of "Don't do this." And regarding longevity goalie of the generation, you could probably make a pretty good argument for Roberto Luongo who went 4th overall in 1997.

Didn't mean to imply that at all. It's not more likely, there are certainly more misses later on too. Thought I covered that with the first part of "1st round pick guys seem to offer more certainty of an NHL career, they don't seem to offer much more certainty of a really really good one."

I'm also not referencing the opportunity cost of players around them per se, more that you can get similar value later. Is TB really that much worse off with, say, Frederik Andersen and Skjei than they are with Vas and Tanner Richard? I know that's very presumptive that TB skips the other 3rd round goalies, I'm just making an illustration. The dropoff from Skjei/Matheson to Richard, Troy Burke, Justin Kei is greater. Then again, Lindell was the next pick, so shrug. Anyway, 24 of 28 position players from that first round have played 100 NHL games, 1 of 2 goalies has.
2nd round, 10/28 players 0/2 goalies
3rd round, 10/23 players, 3/7 goalies (giving Korpisalo credit for 90)
4th round, 6/29 players, 0/1 goalies
5th round, 5/27 players, 1/3 goalies
6th round, 4/26 players 0/4 goalies (Mazanec and Ullmark have some games at least)
7th round, 2/25 players 0/5 goalies

It simply looks to me like the odds of landing a position player are so much better in the first round while the odds of landing a goalie in the 2-5th are roughly the same. This is obviously only one draft and I don't know how applicable it is to others so I'm not going to pretend it's science, only sample, but 85% of those first rounder skaters have played a meaningful number of games, and that numer drops off hard after. It seems less to do with goalies and more to do with skaters (and GM need to have something to show for a first round pick maybe?). There are plenty of exceptions and I don't think there's a firm rule, but for me, this is why I don't like Knight as much in the first as i would Wolf in the 3rd for example. But it also depends on who is available. And like you say, at some point you have to make exceptions for guys who look like total ballers like Luongo and Price did. But it is kind of odd that it seemed easier to project goalies like that high before.

Edit: I mean if anything in a roundabout way I'm really agreeing with you that a blanket statement isn't the way to go, just trying to help explain why there's a very real resistance to early goalie picks that makes sense.

 

[Brodeur]

it is not because st. louis is the one team like that. If 15/16 had centers they did not develop or traded for then it would be the same as me pointing out Tampa as the only playoff team to draft and start their own first round pick goalie.

Let me do a list for the 2018 playoffs:

Tampa Bay

So two straight years only one team (the same team) has drafted a goalie in round and still had that goalie as their starter in the playoffs. Pretty risky drafting a goalie in round 1 no matter who it is.

I thought of another exercise: Carey Price is the only goalie to go in the top 10 since the lockout. So let's count how many defensemen who were drafted in the back half (11-30) of the first round are in the starting six for the club which drafted them (and didn't re-sign years later a la Hamhuis). Bolded the names who fit the description.

Tampa Bay: Hedman|Stralman|McDonagh|Sergachev|Coburn|Girardi
Boston: Chara|McAvoy|Krug|Carlo|Grzelcyk|Miller
Toronto: Rielly|Zaitsev|Muzzin|Gardiner|Dermott|Hainsey
Washington: Carlson|Kempny|Orlov|Niskanen|Siegenthaler|Jensen
NY Islanders: Toews|Mayfield|Leddy|Pelech|Pulock|Boychuk
Pittsburgh: Dumoulin|Letang|Pettersson|Schultz|Johnson|Gudbranson
Carolina: Slavin|Hamilton|de Haan|Faulk|Pesce|van Riemsdyk
Columbus: Werenski|Jones|Nutivaara|Savard|Kukan|Harrington
Nashville: Josi|Ellis|Ekholm|Subban|Hamhuis|Fabbro
Winnipeg: Byfuglien|Morrissey|Trouba|Myers|Chiarot|Kulikov
St. Louis: Pietrangelo|Parayko|Dunn|Bouwmeester|Gunnarsson|Edmundson
Dallas: Lindell|Klingberg|Heiskanen|Polak|Lovejoy|Fedun
Colorado: Barrie|Makar|Johnson|Cole|Girard|Zadorov
Calgary: Giordano|Brodie|Hanifin|Hamonic|Fantenberg|Andersson
San Jose: Burns|Karlsson|Vlasic|Braun|Dillon|Ryan
Vegas: Theodore|McNabb|Engelland|Schmidt|Merrill|Miller

6 guys out of 96, that's on par with 1 out of 16 goalies. Is this somehow proof that you shouldn't draft a defenseman between 11-30 (and if were to further filter it by guys taken in the back half 16-30th like most of the other first round goalies, then only Carlson/Fabbro remain)? Obviously not. But by some dubious reasoning, I could say that you can draft a better one later, or trade for one, or sign them as a free agent.

Again, I think there's a connotation difference between "first rounder" and "22nd overall pick".

 

[Brodeur]

Edit: I mean if anything in a roundabout way I'm really agreeing with you that a blanket statement isn't the way to go, just trying to help explain why there's a very real resistance to early goalie picks that makes sense.

I think the hard thing is that there isn't necessarily a first round goalie every year. Goalies are harder to project since a lot of them simply aren't starting at age 18 so it can be tough to scout/project them. Steve Mason played sparingly in his draft year. Scott Wedgewood got drafted in the third round mostly based off of four OHL playoff games.

Like you said, it comes down to who's available. I think most people expected Jack Campbell to go in the top 15 in 2010. I wasn't shocked that Dallas took him #11, but I was shocked that Dallas took him when Cam Fowler was still available. But on the same token, if they had taken Brandon Gormley I don't think anybody would have objected in the moment.

We'll see if somebody starts slipping. I like that second grouping of D [Soderstrom|York|Harley|Seider] but all four could be gone by #22. I've liked what I've seen from Lavoie, I've read good things about Tomasino, I'm a little tepid based on what I've read on Kaliyev.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I wouldn't do that Tofolli deal. Still get a good prospect at #22. I'd rather roll the dice on a Tofolli bounce back season and move him during the season/TDL.

I want more picks: not fewer picks but #16 over #22.

Agreed

People talk about Toffoli as some kind of throw in.

With a bounce back season you get two second rounders for him at the TDL.

 

[King'sPawn]

Agreed

People talk about Toffoli as some kind of throw in.

With a bounce back season you get two second rounders for him at the TDL.

How much do you expect Toffoli to bounce back, and what value does Toffoli have if he doesn't bounce back?

 

[tomd]

How much do you expect Toffoli to bounce back, and what value does Toffoli have if he doesn't bounce back?

He needs a center who can get him the puck...and he needs to realize that his career is on the line. Without those two things I don't see a big bounce back but I can't imagine he'll be worse than last year.

 

[johnjm22]

TOP 20 SCORERS IN THE NHL LAST YEAR:
1. Kucherov (2nd Rnd Pick)
2. McDavid (1st Rnd Pick)
3. P. Kane (1st Rnd Pick)
4.Draisaitl (1st Rnd Pick)
5. Marchand (3rd Rnd Pick)
6. Crosby (1st Rnd Pick)
7. Mackinnon (1st Rnd Pick)
8. Gaudreau (4th Rnd Pick)
9. Stamkos (1st Rnd Pick)
10. Barkov (1st Rnd Pick)
11. Marner (1st Rnd Pick)
12. Point (3rd Rnd Pick)
13. Huberdeau (1st Rnd Pick)
14. Wheeler (1st Rnd Pick)
15. Ovechkin (1st Rnd Pick)
16. Tavares (1st Rnd Pick)
17. Rantanen (1st Rnd Pick)
18. Panarin (Undrafted)
19. Giroux (1st Rnd Pick)
20. Scheifele (1st Rnd Pick)

*15 OUT OF THE 20 WERE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND


TOP 20 GOALIES IN NHL LAST YEAR (SV% AT LEAST 30 GAMES PLAYED):
1. Bishop (3rd Rnd Pick)
2. Lehner (2nd Rnd Pick)
3. Campbell (1st Rnd Pick)
4. Binnington (3rd Rnd Pick)
5. Greiss (3rd Rnd Pick)
6. Vasilevskiy (1st Rnd Pick)
7. Kuemper (6th Rnd Pick)
8. Khudobin (7th Rnd Pick)
9. Halak (9th Rnd Pick)
10. Murray (3rd Rnd Pick)
11. Rinne (8th Rnd Pick)
12. Price (1st Rnd Pick)
13. Andersen (3rd Rnd Pick)
14. Hart (2nd Rnd Pick)
15. Grubauer (4th Rnd Pick)
16. Gibson (2nd Rnd Pick)
17. Desmith (Undrafted)
18. Saros (4th Rnd Pick)
19. Georgiev (Undrafted)
20. Mrazek (5th Rnd Pick)

*3 OF THE TOP 20 GOALIES WERE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Toffoli needs to grow a set of balls and shoot from the middle of the ice. If you look at his shooting pattern the past few seasons, you'll notice that his favorite shot to take is high along the top right attacking zone circle, pretty much as soon as he crosses the blueline.

 

[Brodeur]

TOP 20 SCORERS IN THE NHL LAST YEAR:

1. Kucherov (2nd Rnd Pick)
2. McDavid (1st Rnd Pick)
3. P. Kane (1st Rnd Pick)
4.Draisaitl (1st Rnd Pick)
5. Marchand (3rd Rnd Pick)
6. Crosby (1st Rnd Pick)
7. Mackinnon (1st Rnd Pick)
8. Gaudreau (4th Rnd Pick)
9. Stamkos (1st Rnd Pick)
10. Barkov (1st Rnd Pick)
11. Marner (1st Rnd Pick)
12. Point (3rd Rnd Pick)
13. Huberdeau (1st Rnd Pick)
14. Wheeler (1st Rnd Pick)
15. Ovechkin (1st Rnd Pick)
16. Tavares (1st Rnd Pick)
17. Rantanen (1st Rnd Pick)
18. Panarin (Undrafted)
19. Giroux (1st Rnd Pick)
20. Scheifele (1st Rnd Pick)

*15 OUT OF THE 20 WERE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND

*3 OF THE TOP 20 GOALIES WERE DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND.

Again, small sample size. There haven't been many first round goalies, so obviously there won't be many first round starting goalies. Out of the top scorers, how many of them were drafted in the top 5? Nobody is saying draft a goalie in the top 5. This is what irks me, the term "first rounder" has the connotation of a top 5 pick even if the pick is in the 20s.

 

[LAKings88]

https://www.tsn.ca/draft-eligible-goalies-know-the-road-to-the-nhl-is-often-a-long-one-1.1321831