Prospect Info: 2019 Draft Discussion: LA Kings pick 5th, 22nd overall

[johnjm22]

To be honest, I wouldn't bet on any of those. Brown is still going to be used in the top 6 and he is healthy and has had a couple of strong years now. He will have the chance.

I was saying that to mock what people were saying about Brown a few years ago, and to demonstrate that players have down years and come back. I wasn't making a prediction about this coming year, but I do think he'll score 20+ again. He's in great shape, never gets injured, and will be given prime ice time I assume.

Toffoli should do better, but he hasn't shown much improvement over the years and requires a lot of outside factors to help his game.

His shooting percentage indicates last year was an aberration. He looked terrible yes, but he's only 27 and in a contract year. When people say things like "he needs someone to dish him the puck" etc. I don't buy that. Goal scorers find ways to score and Toffoli has been a scorer at every level.

Carter played 6 games less, and as bad as he was, he still matched Toffoli and scored 13 and edged out Kempe. Given our young depth, if paired well and recovered from his ailments, he could still be able to put the puck in the net.

I don't think Carter will bounce back, but I don't think it's impossible. I'd like to think at this point in his career he could be a good bottom line center.

This is Carter's actual salary for the next 3 years:
19/20 3M (34 Y.O.)
20/21 2M (35 Y.O.)
21/22 2M (36 Y.O.)

Carter has earned over 60M+ in his career thus far. He's suffered a significant injury recently. Can we really expect him to go out and put his body on line every night for 2M or 3M?

So while my heart says "Yeah Carter will turn it around!". My analytical brain says "No, he's probably done."

 

[regulate]

This is Carter's actual salary for the next 3 years:
19/20 3M (33 Y.O.)
20/21 2M (34 Y.O.)
21/22 2M (35 Y.O.)

He turns 35 mid season. The ages should be 35, 36 and 37 for the last 3 years.

 

[AzKing]

Fine, I have seen all the rankings...but how are the 3-4 forwards ahead of Boldy, better? it seems to me he's on par with all of them pretty much. He and Turcotte may be the 2 best 200 foot players in the draft, for that matter. I'm just wondering because he's LW, he gets bumped below Dach, Cozens and Zegras. I know the Kings will get a very good player at 5, I am just hoping they can somehow move up from 22 and get one of: Boldy, Kaliyev, Newhook.

You hit the nail on the head. He is a LW and that hurts his value in comparison to 3 Centers. It's always been that way unless the guy who only plays wing is a generational talent. Centers command a higher ranking historically. Doesn't necessarily make it right but that's the way they slot usually.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I was saying that to mock what people were saying about Brown a few years ago, and to demonstrate that players have down years and come back. I wasn't making a prediction about this coming year, but I do think he'll score 20+ again. He's in great shape, never gets injured, and will be given prime ice time I assume.


His shooting percentage indicates last year was an aberration. He looked terrible yes, but he's only 27 and in a contract year. When people say things like "he needs someone to dish him the puck" etc. I don't buy that. Goal scorers find ways to score and Toffoli has been a scorer at every level.


I don't think Carter will bounce back, but I don't think it's impossible. I'd like to think at this point in his career he could be a good bottom line center.

This is Carter's actual salary for the next 3 years:
19/20 3M (33 Y.O.)
20/21 2M (34 Y.O.)
21/22 2M (35 Y.O.)

Carter has earned over 60M+ in his career thus far. He's suffered a significant injury recently. Can we really expect him to go out and put his body on line every night for 2M or 3M?

So while my heart says "Yeah Carter will turn it around!". My analytical brain says "No, he's probably done."

Toffoli and Carter got BUKU PP minutes...and played line 2. Kempe did not get PP time (until the last 15 games of the year and not much) and played line 3.
You cannot compare his numbers to 73 and 77.

Getting TT the puck? He had the puck every night on the PP and scored 3 PP goals all year. There are no excuses for him. Carter can't play C or RW on any line.
If he's not scoring, he's worthless. He has zero physical game and has zero intensity. ZERO and ZERO and no longer can out skate an opponent or score, is ZERO
and that's 3 ZEROES on ANY LINE at RW or C. There's no debate. The PRO's - scouts, Ast GMs and GMs watched him all year up until the trade deadline
and there was ZERO interest. That's 4 ZEROES. If he cannot be traded, he should be waived. Lines 3 and 4 need players that WORK their azzes off and
are effective in several areas. 77 is not one of those.

 

[Reaper45]

Both players appeared in 35 games total, combined, with the Kings. Yeesh.

What a time to be alive. Man those Kings scouting departments back then SUCKED.

 

[kovacro]

What a time to be alive. Man those Kings scouting departments back then SUCKED.

Jeebus, tell me about it. What a cringeworthy flashback.

Actually wasn’t a bad trade to get a 1st for Simmer at the time. It went against their practice of trading 1st’s like candy but, the pick was a dogs breakfast.

“go ahead Los Angleeez.”

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Jeebus, tell me about it. What a cringeworthy flashback.

Actually wasn’t a bad trade to get a 1st for Simmer at the time. It went against their practice of trading 1st’s like candy but, the pick was a dogs breakfast.

“go ahead Los Angleeez.”

And of course the name called right after those two selections goes on to appear in over 1,000 NHL games.

 

[johnjm22]

Toffoli and Carter got BUKU PP minutes...and played line 2. Kempe did not get PP time (until the last 15 games of the year and not much) and played line 3.

Maybe you don't understand how to interpret shooting percentage stats?

You cannot compare his numbers to 73 and 77.

Who was comparing them?

Getting TT the puck? He had the puck every night on the PP and scored 3 PP goals all year. There are no excuses for him.

Maybe you misunderstood what I wrote?

If he's not scoring, he's worthless.

Carter? He's been a two way center his entire career with the Kings.

 

[johnjm22]

He turns 35 mid season. The ages should be 35, 36 and 37 for the last 3 years.

The ages I listed are for the start of the year.

 

[regulate]

The ages I listed are for the start of the year.

Ok, well then at the start of the season he is 34, 35 and 36.

 

[Herby]

KP,

Respect your opinion, but as Pronman says, everyone says BPA but it rarely happens. You have to look at what you have on hand both in the system and at the NHL level. That would be 5 centers taken with high picks in the last three years to go along with a center signed at $10m a year for the next 5 seasons (which goes into prime years of this pick). We risk ending up in a Nashville type situation where they just loaded up at one position and were never able to correct and balance the roster and then ended up making a horrific trade trying to do just that. I am cool with taking the Byram if he is there at 5, or trading up to get him at 3 or 4. But if not, and if there not going to take Caufield I think trading back is the best option, this would also give the Kings an asset to use in an attempt to move from 22 into the top 15, which I think they should strongly consider doing, especially if a guy they like falls.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Maybe you don't understand how to interpret shooting percentage stats?

Who was comparing them?

Maybe you misunderstood what I wrote?

Carter? He's been a two way center his entire career with the Kings.

Sorry, was also reading the Telos posts within your post. Goring was a 2-way center his entire career too...he was done in 1985. Carter was done in October-November, 2018.
The entire world knows this, except a small pocket of King fans.

Since you understand more about shooting percentages, explain how Toffoli's 5,8% is misunderstood as having some hidden value that 5.8% is a good.
It's 82nd among NHL defensemen in the NHL and 450th among forwards. Sure, many shots are taken to get the puck to the net and create chances
and your percentage will go down from like 12% to maybe 10% over a season. Any NHL player that is under 8% (no matter any reason except a broken wrist)
is not a top 6 NHL forward.

Encouraged by the team buying out Dion, whom cost the Kings 0 points in the standings...this means they are probably focused on moving 77 and 73, whom between the 2 of them probably
cost the Kings 7-10 points in the standings, for utterly failing line #2, the PP and the PK as well. Lewis is 4th on the list to remove. Off to a good start. Dion was actually the best of the 4 last year,
but needed to go.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Sorry, was also reading the Telos posts within your post. Goring was a 2-way center his entire career too...he was done in 1985. Carter was done in October-November, 2018.
The entire world knows this, except a small pocket of King fans.

Since you understand more about shooting percentages, explain how Toffoli's 5,8% is misunderstood as having some hidden value that 5.8% is a good.
It's 82nd among NHL defensemen in the NHL and 450th among forwards. Sure, many shots are taken to get the puck to the net and create chances
and your percentage will go down from like 12% to maybe 10% over a season. Any NHL player that is under 8% (no matter any reason except a broken wrist)
is not a top 6 NHL forward.

Encouraged by the team buying out Dion, whom cost the Kings 0 points in the standings...this means they are probably focused on moving 77 and 73, whom between the 2 of them probably
cost the Kings 7-10 points in the standings, for utterly failing line #2, the PP and the PK as well. Lewis is 4th on the list to remove. Off to a good start. Dion was actually the best of the 4 last year,
but needed to go.

To the first boldfaced, the point is pretty obviously that last year's shooting % was an aberration for any number of reasons...his career shooting % is nearly twice that. That's why it's smart for the Kings to rely on a bounceback for whatever they do with Toffoli. I remember defending Brown hard in a similar manner and yeah, I'm going to smugly pat myself on the back for that one too. Even if a guy bounces back to half his regular shooting percentage, that's quite a few more goals. Same goes for Jeff Carter to a degree. You don't bank on them having a career year, you just bank on them getting back to even half of normal, statistically speaking.

To the second, the last thing we need around here is made-up stats.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

The Kings need a top center, a #2 D, and several top six wingers. So in that regard, every pick available is our best pick.

 

[johnjm22]

Sorry, was also reading the Telos posts within your post. Goring was a 2-way center his entire career too...he was done in 1985. Carter was done in October-November, 2018.
The entire world knows this, except a small pocket of King fans.

Since you understand more about shooting percentages, explain how Toffoli's 5,8% is misunderstood as having some hidden value that 5.8% is a good.
It's 82nd among NHL defensemen in the NHL and 450th among forwards. Sure, many shots are taken to get the puck to the net and create chances
and your percentage will go down from like 12% to maybe 10% over a season. Any NHL player that is under 8% (no matter any reason except a broken wrist)
is not a top 6 NHL forward.

Encouraged by the team buying out Dion, whom cost the Kings 0 points in the standings...this means they are probably focused on moving 77 and 73, whom between the 2 of them probably
cost the Kings 7-10 points in the standings, for utterly failing line #2, the PP and the PK as well. Lewis is 4th on the list to remove. Off to a good start. Dion was actually the best of the 4 last year,
but needed to go.

I agree on moving both Carter and Toffoli. I said years ago before Carter fell off that the Kings needed to look into moving him, but now since he doesn't have any value we might as well hold onto him and see if he can bounce back. It's unlikely he will, but not impossible.

For Toffoli the most likely probability is that he'll have a bounce back year. You're analyzing shooting % as if it's representative of a player's skill/ability; it's not. At least not in hockey.

Shooting % is probably the signal most accurate indicator of an outlier season. Take William Karlsson's 43 goal season. His shooting percentage was 23.4%. That's not sustainable, it's an outlier. His shooting % will most likely revert to the mean thus his production will drop. That's exactly what happened the following season.

Toffoli's shooting percentage next year will most likely revert to the mean as well. That would be somewhere around 10%.

During the 2012 regular season, when the Kings were on pace to be one of the worst offenses of all time, their team shooting percentage was extremely low. Eventually it reverted to some semblance of normalcy and the Kings found success.

 

[LAKings88]

I just think Byram will be the biggest difference maker to LA available in this draft after falling out of the top two slots.

Hoping he falls to LA.

2020 is a big year for forwards if LA is lottery bound again.

 

[King'sPawn]

KP,

Respect your opinion, but as Pronman says, everyone says BPA but it rarely happens. You have to look at what you have on hand both in the system and at the NHL level. That would be 5 centers taken with high picks in the last three years to go along with a center signed at $10m a year for the next 5 seasons (which goes into prime years of this pick). We risk ending up in a Nashville type situation where they just loaded up at one position and were never able to correct and balance the roster and then ended up making a horrific trade trying to do just that. I am cool with taking the Byram if he is there at 5, or trading up to get him at 3 or 4. But if not, and if there not going to take Caufield I think trading back is the best option, this would also give the Kings an asset to use in an attempt to move from 22 into the top 15, which I think they should strongly consider doing, especially if a guy they like falls.

I understand and respect your stance. I just genuinely don't think taking a center at 5 is indicative of the organization giving up on Vilardi. That's all I was disputing.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Having an overabundance of centers didn't seem to be too bad for the Quebec Nordiques. They drafted the following centers with first round picks: Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Eric Lindros. They eventually turned Lindros and Sundin into pieces that would lead the relocated Avalanche towards a Stanley Cup.

Now, the Kings don't have a Sakic, or Lindros, or Sundin, but at 5th overall, they could potentially land a damn good player who may eventually be the successor to Kopitar. I'm not sure if they have that in Vilardi or Kupari, but one would assume the player they select at 5th overall would have a higher ceiling than those two prospects.

 

[KINGS17]

I think one thing is certain. This is a skill Blake and Robitaille need to practice before the next draft.

 

[Steve Zissou]

I think one thing is certain. This is a skill Blake and Robitaille need to practice before the next draft.

Luc is always happy go lucky; I don’t think I’ve ever seen him as pissed off as he was at the draft. Can you blame him?

 

[King'sPawn]

I think one thing is certain. This is a skill Blake and Robitaille need to practice before the next draft.

I think the bigger issue is sending Luc to the lottery both times because he's "lucky Luc."

Kings have fallen BOTH times they sent him to attend the lottery since the new system.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I think the bigger issue is sending Luc to the lottery both times because he's "lucky Luc."

Kings have fallen BOTH times they sent him to attend the lottery since the new system.

They need to send Aki Berg or Sam McMaster next time.

 

[ibleedkings]

Luc is always happy go lucky; I don’t think I’ve ever seen him as pissed off as he was at the draft. Can you blame him?

Him and Sakic looked dead

 

[KINGS17]

I think the bigger issue is sending Luc to the lottery both times because he's "lucky Luc."

Kings have fallen BOTH times they sent him to attend the lottery since the new system.

Time to vote for Kings legends to attend the lottery. I'm going to say Andy Murray for the next one.

 

[King'sPawn]

Time to vote for Kings legends to attend the lottery. I'm going to say Andy Murray for the next one.

I vote Alec Martinez. He's the one who brought most recent glory to LA.

Plus him having jazz hands on TV in a business suit after getting first overall pick would be pretty awesome.