2019/20 Roster Thread XXX - AKA the Ghost Thread

[Striiker]

Oh look... this looks familiar...

 

[Tripod]

Just a reminder that the PP actually isn't improved this year. It improved when it became more aggressive after Hak was fired.

81.1% right now
82.2% last year post-Hak.

I assume it's just Hayes' flashy PK scoring/puck holding that is sticking out in peoples minds and giving the illusion of improvement.

Regardless, the point is that the PK isn't a problem, so that's nice. It's everywhere else that needs to see changes.

....edit the 1st part to say PK.

 

[Striiker]

....edit the 1st part to say PK.

 

[Chinatown88]

MOAR

That's how I picture you atm.

 

[Starat327]

That's how I picture you atm.

If I hit the lottery I'm starting a red panda sanctuary.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

1. The PP has improved from last season.

19.5% vs. 17.1%

2. Giroux has had a significant drop-off in overall level of play, not just the PP. So it’s more than just where he stands on the PP when it’s set up, & if he were playing at his former level the PP would be better regardless of his positioning.

3. Blaming the PP entirely on coaching is a vast oversimplification. There are many factors at play, particularly player execution. JVR is getting tons of prime chances & not burying them. Players consistently make unforced errors, such as poor passes & muffed pucks. And perhaps more than anything they have a hell of a time with zone entries & getting set up, which is largely a personnel issue (& don’t give me Ghost, because he’s struggled with that since last season, also).

 

[Curufinwe]

Giroux....or Ghost?

New scoring line.

Giroux-Laughton-Ghost

 

[Striiker]

 

[renberg]

Players consistently make unforced errors, such as poor passes & muffed pucks.

This.

 

[Appleyard]

1. The PP has improved from last season.


2. Giroux has had a significant drop-off in overall level of play, not just the PP. So it’s more than just where he stands on the PP when it’s set up, & if he were playing at his former level the PP would be better regardless of his positioning.

At 5v5 he has better underlying stats, both individual and on ice, than last year by some way, and marginally over 2017-18.

It would pretty much be the biggest statistical anomaly of the stats era if he was: getting to better shot locations, helping set up line-mates shot locations better... yet he fell off... pretty much 90% due to assists. When pretty much every player loses their scoring first due to human biology and aging.

 

[Striiker]

Our best playmaker with only 2 primary assists. If people can't realize that this is just bad luck then there's no help for them.

He's obviously creating chances but they're just not getting finished. He has zero control over that.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

At 5v5 he has better underlying stats, both individual and on ice, than last year by some way, and marginally over 2017-18.

It would pretty much be the biggest statistical anomaly of the stats era if he was: getting to better shot locations, helping set up line-mates shot locations better... yet he fell off... pretty much 90% due to assists. When pretty much every player loses their scoring first due to human biology and aging.

Does he look the same to you?

Because he sure doesn’t look the same to me. Particularly the last month or two.

His decline in production meets the eye test.

Fancy stats comprised of inexact, made-up formulas & inefficiently tracked data are not gospel, are not the final word, & don’t tell the whole story.

 

[landsbergfan]

Our best playmaker with only 2 primary assists. If people can't realize that this is just bad luck then there's no help for them.

He's obviously creating chances but they're just not getting finished. He has zero control over that.

real leaders make others around them better

 

[Appleyard]

Does he look the same to you?

Because he sure doesn’t look the same to me. Particularly the last month or two.

His decline in production meets the eye test.

Fancy stats comprised of inexact, made-up formulas & inefficiently tracked data are not gospel, are not the final word, & don’t tell the whole story.

Over a decent sample they tell a lot more of a story than your or my eyes...

And yeh, over the last month (before last ~2-3 games) he looked a bit off to me as well. But until ~Xmas he looked as good as last two years and was not getting points.

Nothing tells the whole story. But I take maths+human biology over pretty much anyones individual eyes.


And now we have 10,000+ games, with thousands of players, and millions of minutes of data.

Id take the chance that from this he has not fallen off vs a chance that the maths+biology weirdly does not apply to Giroux... just this season.

 

[flyersnorth]

Id take the chance that from this he has not fallen off vs a chance that the maths+biology weirdly does not apply to Giroux... just this season.

I would say it's not that he has "fallen off", but just that there's a slow erosion.

Coots is now the one who regularly elevates his teammates and makes highlight reel passes and goals. He's in his prime. That used to be Giroux, and of course, I believe he's still got plenty left in the tank. But I also see that it doesn't happen as often, and there are several games where Giroux is a non-factor. Not bad, not good, just not a factor.

G played his best this year when he was on Frost's wing. Maybe the chemistry / similarity in their games just meshed well. I'd like to see Frost back up to center G.

 

[TB87]

Matz of BSH thinks Ghost will come into the lineup and Myers will sit because he’s playing poorly lately....

 

[bennysflyers16]

Matz of BSH thinks Ghost will come into the lineup and Myers will sit because he’s playing poorly lately....

GTFO,,,,,,,

 

[Starat327]

Over a decent sample they tell a lot more of a story than your or my eyes...

And yeh, over the last month (before last ~2-3 games) he looked a bit off to me as well. But until ~Xmas he looked as good as last two years and was not getting points.

Nothing tells the whole story. But I take maths+human biology over pretty much anyones individual eyes.


And now we have 10,000+ games, with thousands of players, and millions of minutes of data.

Id take the chance that from this he has not fallen off vs a chance that the maths+biology weirdly does not apply to Giroux... just this season.

Wait, is this seriously even a discussion?

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Our best playmaker with only 2 primary assists. If people can't realize that this is just bad luck then there's no help for them.

He's obviously creating chances but they're just not getting finished. He has zero control over that.

Oh... that’s like really shocking.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Over a decent sample they tell a lot more of a story than your or my eyes...

And yeh, over the last month (before last ~2-3 games) he looked a bit off to me as well. But until ~Xmas he looked as good as last two years and was not getting points.

Nothing tells the whole story. But I take maths+human biology over pretty much anyones individual eyes.


And now we have 10,000+ games, with thousands of players, and millions of minutes of data.

Id take the chance that from this he has not fallen off vs a chance that the maths+biology weirdly does not apply to Giroux... just this season.

Brain sprain, but how long has g been press-ganged back to center? I feel like it may be contributory, since he himself said he prefers wing.

 

[flyersnorth]

Brain sprain, but how long has g been press-ganged back to center? I feel like it may be contributory, since he himself said he prefers wing.

Yeah, I think that's a big part of it too. Last year, his worst stretch was when he was back at C, IIRC.

 

[Appleyard]

Oh... that’s like really shocking.

93% of the primary shot assists at 5v5 as last year.

15% of the assists.

Something does not add up... especially when on ice xGF is the same.

Unless he is putting the puck on edge EVERY single time or something (he is not ofc) then basically players are just not shooting well off his passes. Even in good locations.

The estimate would be that Giroux has ~145 primary 5v5 shot assists on the year.

2/145 have gone in. 1.4% shooting off his passes.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Would not at all be surprised to see Myers come out for Ghost. Myers is not playing well. He’s an adventure.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Would not at all be surprised to see Myers come out for Ghost. Myers is not playing well. He’s an adventure.

Did you bang your head ?

 

[wuf]

Can someone wrangle up the advanced stats on our d-men? Braun is only only minus on the team other than Ghost.

No way we sit Myers for Ghost, purely from an eye-test anyways.