2019/20 Roster Thread XXIX

[Striiker]

Couturier was the winner...

But as @CanadianFlyer88 said, until he has the trophy in his hands it doesn't matter.

I know. I'm saying how it's been in the past.

If another player has a big second half of scoring or there's some kind of narrative around the player, like carrying his team to the playoffs in some dramatic fashion, then that person will likely win it, even if Couturier is better defensively.

I'm not going to believe these guys have finally taken their heads out of their asses until he's actually won.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

pic

I wish we had banners to hang...

It took them years to add 10-11 to the Division Champions banner.

@MiamiScreamingEagles and myself tried to do some digging about that a while back because it bothered me for years.

 

[TB87]

The entire ballot was terrible.

Kuemper and Panarin in his MVP vote, Quinn Hughes not in the Calder vote, and the best defensive defenseman vote didn't have Slavin or Hedman in the top 3

Holy shit, I didn’t notice this at first. Alex Edler as the best defensive defenseman? WTF

Josi isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart either so I’m confused by the PHWA’s results there. Jonas Brodin should be there over Josi. He’s been a monster defensively this season.

 

[Rebels57]

The entire ballot was terrible.

Kuemper and Panarin in his MVP vote, Quinn Hughes not in the Calder vote, and the best defensive defenseman vote didn't have Slavin or Hedman in the top 3

Panarin is definitely deserving..but yeah he's still an idiot.

 

[Striiker]

Speaking of Panarin, while looking at Myers, I noticed that of players with 500+ minutes this year Myers is #2 and Panarin is #1 in 5v5 on ice shooting percentage.

 

[flyersfan187]

I see on the trade forum in a thread that got closed that Ghost is about traded to the Leafs. I know it is probably a guy looking for clicks but he also said that Ghost wanted out of Philly at the beginning of the season. I know it 99% isn’t real but if they just got Kapanen for him I’d be upset which would be about what you’d expect between these two teams.

 

[Swic21]

I see on the trade forum in a thread that got closed that Ghost is about traded to the Leafs. I know it is probably a guy looking for clicks but he also said that Ghost wanted out of Philly at the beginning of the season. I know it 99% isn’t real but if they just got Kapanen for him I’d be upset which would be about what you’d expect between these two teams.

Toronto may actually prefer Braun over Ghost. Although with Reilly hurt, they might need some more offence on the back end.

 

[Striiker]

I don't buy a single one of these stupid rumors until it comes from a legit source. This happens every single year and it's always nonsense.

 

[Psuhockey]

Toronto may actually prefer Braun over Ghost. Although with Reilly hurt, they might need some more offence on the back end.

The Flyers aren’t moving a defenseman at the deadline unless they are acquiring another defenseman. They only have 7 NHL guys right now and that’s a very generous description of Hagg.

 

[TB87]

He’s not Haggin’ it up nearly as much as last season but Hagg is still very much a net negative:

 

[FLYguy3911]

MBMcC had a great thread on leaguewide scoring being up a little while back. Shot quality is not up. It's not huge amounts of blowouts where teams don't let up anymore. I'd love to know what it actually is, because it's not Penalties either. It's all 5v5.

It is because of the Red Wings

Actual goals vs. Expected Goals.

Colorado kinda offsets Detroit. In typical Flyers fashion, they are smack dab in the middle with almost no net difference.

 

[deadhead]

This does suggest some teams are going to regress to the mean.

While some of the difference is due to shooters who are above average (or below), because xGF is based on the average shooter from different spots on the ice, it's unlikely that Colorado is full of shooters who can maintain success at such a high rate above the league average.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Actual goals vs. Expected Goals.

Colorado kinda offsets Detroit. In typical Flyers fashion, they are smack dab in the middle with almost no net difference.

View attachment 312173

Lolz at the Kings. 4th highest xGF!

I tried watching a couple of Kings games (outside of the 2 Flyers games) this year and those are hours I would have benefitted doing almost anything else. It is shocking that their xGF is so high.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Lolz at the Kings. 4th highest xGF!

I tried watching a couple of Kings games (outside of the 2 Flyers games) this year and those are hours I would have benefitted doing almost anything else. It is shocking that their xGF is so high.

They are 3rd best by Corsi and 2nd best by Fenwick and Shot Differential. Some of that is score related. But even if you adjust they are 6th best. Playing in the worst division helps too but they are doing something right schematically. They outplayed the Flyers last week 5v5. They just have absolutely no offensive talent and Quick hasn’t been good. They have some talent on the way though.

 

[deadhead]

Reality check, most #6/#7 defensemen are going to have lousy metrics, since one would expect that they perform below average. If they were an average defenseman, then out of the 180-200 who play significant minutes, they'd be around #80-120, and thus an above average #5 on good teams and a top four defenseman (see Streit and AMac on the Islanders) on bad teams.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

They are 3rd best by Corsi and 2nd best by Fenwick and Shot Differential. Some of that is score related. But even if you adjust they are 6th best. Playing in the worst division helps too but they are doing something right schematically. They outplayed the Flyers last week 5v5. They just have absolutely no offensive talent and Quick hasn’t been good. They have some talent on the way though.

I will probably not subject myself to more Kings games this season, but they seem like an outlier where positive advanced metrics don't match the eye test.

Could be talent related, as you note.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Reality check, most #6/#7 defensemen are going to have lousy metrics, since one would expect that they perform below average. If they were an average defenseman, then out of the 180-200 who play significant minutes, they'd be around #80-120, and thus an above average #5 on good teams and a top four defenseman (see Streit and AMac on the Islanders) on bad teams.

Nobody disputes this. We dispute the utility of choosing to keep a dman who tends to be among the worst of them.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

If you go by xGF%, Winnipeg is by far the worst team in the league, & the Kings are top 5 in the league.

Neither is remotely true. Hence the problem with treating stats like xGF% as a definitive authority.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If you go by xGF%, Winnipeg is by far the worst team in the league, & the Kings are top 5 in the league.

Neither is remotely true. Hence the problem with treating stats like xGF% as a definitive authority.

Hence why it is necessary to build context.

Nobody is using it as a definitive authority either. Rather it's been a "hey look at these things." I don't know why you pretend people use stats in ways that they don't.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hence why it is necessary to build context.

Nobody is using it as a definitive authority either. Rather it's been a "hey look at these things." I don't know why you pretend people use stats in ways that they don't.

I think a lot of people teeter too close to treating these stats as definitive authorities.

You see people call them “facts” & implying they are “proof” of something. Well the numbers themselves may be “facts,” but what those numbers mean is a matter of interpretation.

Anyway, I do like pointing out things like Kings a top 5 team in xGF%, Jets far last in the league, Jordan Weal first on the team last year in CF% & xGF%, Dale Weise 2nd in xGF%, as reminders that these stats are very flawed & shouldn’t be treated as reverentially as many do.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think a lot of people teeter too close to treating these stats as definitive authorities.

You see people call them “facts” & implying they are “proof” of something. Well the numbers themselves may be “facts,” but what those numbers mean is a matter of interpretation.

Anyway, I do like pointing out things like Kings a top 5 team in xGF%, Jets far last in the league, Jordan Weal first on the team last year in CF% & xGF%, Dale Weise 2nd in xGF%, as reminders that these stats are very flawed & shouldn’t be treated as reverentially as many do.

So you build context that fills in the logical gaps and it resolves a lot of those issues. That's what we do.

 

[Striiker]

This guy used to post here and hated Couturier. He’s back at it again with more brainless hot takes

 

[BritainStix]

Who was he here?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

was he mr. " zero offensive skill" cooter hater ?

hahaa

 

[Alex91]

I was a big Jason Akeson fan...