I don't disagree with regards to other nations catching up to Canada, but the numbers of players is somewhat misleading as it pertains to the CHL. While some Canadians go the US college route, most stay and play junior. While a lot of US players play NCAA hockey, a lot play Canadian junior.I am of course not talking about "absolutes", there are certainly exceptions and reality isn't black and white, but you make fair points.
BUT, you know, isn't the bolded true to a degree? Canada has roughly 10x the amount of youth hockey players as Sweden have but only 4x the amount of NHLers. These numbers are just googled and there could be better ones available. But the point still stands, and the difference isn't small. Its significantly high.
And certainly, when we in Sweden review the rivals, US hockey is seen as the one to keep track of. Why is that? Its said that the US nat program train extremely hard and focused. And then college often follows afterwards and the college program is held in a high regard and seen as a route that gives players necessary time to develop their game.
Also, in addition, many -- and especially the top -- CHL kids have over the last decade really increased the work load summer time in terms of work on the ice and skill development dramatically to not fall behind too much. Because the CHL has certainly fallen behind over the last years. The US program and Swe/Fin programs have certainly gained ground. If any expert here in Sweden are asked about the reason for this, I can guarantee that the answer is "we train more and better". Swedish hockey is an organization that is easier to run, its easier to in detail get junior team coaches in Sweden to adopt practices than its to do the same in Canada and the coach of the CHL teams. And in Sweden the practice time has been dramatically increased, like I said up towards 20 hours per week for developing players. That is an insane amount. I wouldn't say that its an average, maybe the average is 14 hours per week for developing players, but its still extremely much.
Lastly:
*You are right, I am talking about 17-21 y/o's in general, not 22-23 y/o. There are of course no set rules here either, one 16 y/o can be like another 20 y/o in his development, or vice versa. But in general.
*My knowledge of these things are based on following the AHL and the SHL closely over the last three decades. I have no direct intel on how many hours Hartford practice per week under Knoblauch.
But like Hartford has like 8 weeks with 2 games, 12 weeks with 3 games and 4 weeks with 4 games. The SHL has 17 weeks with 2 games and 5 with 3 games. And several weeks with no games. How could they train even remotely the same amount? Three games in a week of which you travel to 1.5 on average, its not like you are going to be able to put in a lot of hard practices.
Its a guess, in referenec to the paragraph above. 7 weeks a day. 3 games in a week. One day is rest/travel/just shake off the legs. 3 days left. Two hours focused on skill development -- and not systems, PP/PK, physical skating etc -- is not a low number. I think its quite high (but its a guess).
But also, a lot of European players spend at least a season in North America playing junior. Like just from 2018, you had Svechnikov, Zadina, Boqvist, Sandin, and Alexeyev as foreign-born players drafted out of the CHL. That's just the first round. Hischier, Valimaki, Jokiharju the year before. A decent amount of high-level European prospects come to play at least one season in the CHL (or the USHL), so clearly they see something appealing in how the CHL trains and develops players, right?
So my point there is that it's more than just the raw number of players by nationality. I would bet the proportion of players training pre-draft in the CHL is higher than the proportion of Canadian players; the CHL draws players from everywhere.
(Of course, and to your point, an increasing amount of European/Russian players are choosing to do the USHL-NCAA route, which is eroding the advantage the CHL has held for so long.)