NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[Burrowsaurus]

30G 30A player with grit would be welcomed by me as a 4th OA pick all day every day.

30G is a tough nut to crack in the NHL though. Brady Tkachuk was great in the WJC, but didn't show as much scoring prowess in his NCAA games (going just by stats. I never saw any of this NCAA games). I'm not sold that he's a 30G player.

i wonder how former NCAA stars that have become prominent NHLers did in their rookie NCAA seasons.. would interesting to see if guys with seasons like Tkatchuk's turn out well

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

@FolignoQuantumLeap

I've sort of asked this question before, but as the unofficial leader of the "Don't draft Tkachuk at 4 " I do have a question. Regardless of how other guys turn out Zadina, Dobson , Hughes etc. If we were to drsft Tkachuk and he turns out to be a clone of his brother , i.e 30 goal 30 assist 100pim guy with all the other stuff he does, would you consider it a successful pick and worthy of a top 4 choice?

Thanks

He'd be a good pick as a 30-30 guy but he'll never be that and there will be legit #1 D men taken behind him at 4 so it won't be the best player available. That's the problem with taking Tkachuk at 4, you can pretty much 100% guarantee he won't be your best option. But he has a famous father, so he's got that going for him.

 

[Micklebot]

i wonder how former NCAA stars that have become prominent NHLers did in their rookie NCAA seasons.. would interesting to see if guys with seasons like Tkatchuk's turn out well

Just a handfull of guys I was able to find quickly.

Wheeler: 39 gp 9G 14A 23 pts
Kessel: 39gp 18G 33A 51 pts
Toews(17 yrs old):42 gp 22G 17A 39 pts
Okposo: 40gp 19G 21A 40pts
Pacioretty: 37 gp 15G 24A 39 pts
JVR: 31GP 11G 23 A 34pts
Tuch: 37 gp 14G 14 A 28 pts
Eichel: 40 gp 26 45A 71 pts

Brady Tkachuk: 40 GP 8G 23 A 31 pts


Edit: Worth pointing out, I did nothing to highlight any context to the numbers; not all NCAA leagues are the same, and different players had differing quality of linemates. Brady's top teammate for example had 35 pts while Pacioretty's had 63, and JVR's 46, Tuch led his team at 28 pts.

 

[Neiler]

Just a handfull of guys I was able to find quickly.

Wheeler: 39 gp 9G 14A 23 pts
Kessel: 39gp 18G 33A 51 pts
Toews(17 yrs old):42 gp 22G 17A 39 pts
Okposo: 40gp 19G 21A 40pts
Pacioretty: 37 gp 15G 24A 39 pts
JVR: 31GP 11G 23 A 34pts
Tuch: 37 gp 14G 14 A 28 pts
Eichel: 40 gp 26 45A 71 pts

Brady Tkachuk: 40 GP 8G 23 A 31 pts

Nice company to be in.

 

[Micklebot]

Nice company to be in.

He's not really in the company of Eichel, Toews, or Kessel. Even Okposo and JVR looked more impressive in their rookie years going purely by the numbers with little analysis beyond that. Wheeler, Tuch, maybe Pacioretty given the quality of linemates might be comparable if you do the deep dive.

 

[burf]

i wonder how former NCAA stars that have become prominent NHLers did in their rookie NCAA seasons.. would interesting to see if guys with seasons like Tkatchuk's turn out well

From my post about 5 pages back:

Canucks Army does some really good draft write-ups every year, where they compare players to historical cohorts based on production, style of play, and league, together with their own scouting reports. For what it's worth, here's links to the guys the Sens might think about picking at 4 (not counting Dahlin/Svechnikov at 1/2)

#9 - CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT RANKINGS: #9 Brady Tkachuk

Here's the comparables chart from that article:

Jonathan Willis at the Athletic just put up an article today using a similar approach - comparing the current draft class to every previous draft class, using their pre-draft production to find comparables, and ranking the players based on their likelihood to both make it to the NHL and produce in the NHL by age 25. Instead of relying on his own scouting observations, where his statistical model resulted in close rankings, he relied on Pronman and Wheeler's draft lists to fine-tune the order. The article is here, and I would suggest reading it:

Ranking 2018 NHL draft prospects based on their statistical...

It's behind a paywall (though if you make a free account you get 5 free articles per month). For forwards, his model has Svech at 2, Zadina at 7, Wahlstrom at 8, Kotka at 9, Tkachuk at 10, and Kravstsov at 12. He's got Colin Wilson as the closest match for Tkachuk.

What's more interesting is the defence ranking. Just like CanucksArmy (which relied on both a statistical analysis and traditional scouting), his model puts Hughes at 3, Bouchard at 5, and Ty Smith at 6. Unlike CA, he's got Merkley at 4, but his write-up clarifies that it's solely as a result of his model's analysis of Merkley's production, which might make it worth it for a team to grab him with a late-1st flyer instead of hoping he falls to the second round.

 

[DJB]

Not sure I understand your point.

If none of the other top 10 players existed, he'd be worthy of the #1 selection.

Each year is different. There are no absolute value levels.

You are definately missing the point.

 

[DJB]

30G 30A player with grit would be welcomed by me as a 4th OA pick all day every day.

30G is a tough nut to crack in the NHL though. Brady Tkachuk was great in the WJC, but didn't show as much scoring prowess in his NCAA games (going just by stats. I never saw any of this NCAA games). I'm not sold that he's a 30G player.

Personally I think hes going to be 20- 25 goal and 30-40 assist guy. Hes not as good of a goal scorer as his brother but I think hes a much better playmaker. Will he have a 30 goal season? I think its possible but I think hes consistantly more of a 20-25 guy.

 

[Zorf]

Bobby Mack's list

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Tkachuk
4. Zadina
5. Kotkaniemi
6. Dobson
7. Bouchard
8. Hughes
9. Wahlstrom
10. Boqvist
https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

 

[JungleBeat]

He's not really in the company of Eichel, Toews, or Kessel. Even Okposo and JVR looked more impressive in their rookie years going purely by the numbers with little analysis beyond that. Wheeler, Tuch, maybe Pacioretty given the quality of linemates might be comparable if you do the deep dive.

Similar numbers to recent draft picks like Tage Thompson and Luke Lunin, both played in the NCAA during their draft years. I believe Tkachuk will have a similar impact as them.

 

[bdp]

Tkachuk #3 on Bob final list. Every one of his scouts has him in their top 5.

 

[DJB]

He'd be a good pick as a 30-30 guy but he'll never be that and there will be legit #1 D men taken behind him at 4 so it won't be the best player available. That's the problem with taking Tkachuk at 4, you can pretty much 100% guarantee he won't be your best option. But he has a famous father, so he's got that going for him.

You don't know that for certain.

Would you be happy with a 25 - 30 goal 30-40 assist guy with 100pims drafted at 4th overall? Is that a good pick? That's my question. I don't care about anyone else. Ya some might become #1 D but some might bust.

If you could guarantee the above would you pull the trigger and be happy with that pick?

 

[Micklebot]

Bobby Mack's list

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Tkachuk
4. Zadina
5. Kotkaniemi
6. Dobson
7. Bouchard
8. Hughes
9. Wahlstrom
10. Boqvist
https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

Thought this interesting: "But Tkachuk appears to have that certain something and only one of our 10 scouts surveyed had him outside the top five."

 

[bdp]

Thought this interesting: "But Tkachuk appears to have that certain something and only one of our 10 scouts surveyed had him outside the top five."

He sure does have that ability to fool NHL chief scouts. Don't scouts have access to hockeydb?

 

[DJB]

I just knew Dellandrea and Foudy were going to rise to potential 20-30 picks. Bobs list agrees. Both are right in the sweet spot at 22 for us!

 

[DJB]

I like Bokk slightly ahead of Kaut but sadly looks like both might be gone before 22.

 

[Micklebot]

Similar numbers to recent draft picks like Tage Thompson and Luke Lunin, both played in the NCAA during their draft years. I believe Tkachuk will have a similar impact as them.

That's great and all, but it's yet to be determined what kind of impact either of those guys will have so not sure how useful that is in this exercise.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Thought this interesting: "But Tkachuk appears to have that certain something and only one of our 10 scouts surveyed had him outside the top five."

Wonder how much of that "certain something" has to do with his name.

Have to wonder if he'd be the consensus top 4 pick if his name was Brady Smith.

 

[Micklebot]

Comment on Miller, one of the guys I really like:

"U.S. U-18 teammate K’Andre Miller, ranked one spot higher than Wilde at No. 24, is also all over the map in terms of projections, as high as 10 on one list and as low as 39 on another"

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Tkachuk #3 on Bob final list. Every one of his scouts has him in their top 5.

nah only an acceptable pick at 10

 

[JungleBeat]

That's great and all, but it's yet to be determined what kind of impact either of those guys will have so not sure how useful that is in this exercise.

Certainly not 30-30.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Wonder how much of that "certain something" has to do with his name.

Have to wonder if he'd be the consensus top 4 pick if his name was Brady Smith.

probably not that much man.

 

[Ouroboros]

Get comfy with the idea of the Sens taking Tkachuk and McIsaac with their firsts.

 

[Uchiha]

It’ll be interesting to come back to this thread once Tkachuk scores 20 points in his rookie season with us. Lawson Crouse 2.0

 

[bdp]

nah only an acceptable pick at 10

Someone better tell NHL chief scouts that he only scored 8 goals this year. I think they might have been looking at Matt Tkachuk's stats on eliteprospects, that's why he's so high on the lists. Easy mistake.