NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[Daffy]

Dorion needs to be sending signals out that we could really use a C. Montreal wants Kotkaniemi and they need to think Ottawa could take him at 4 so they don't trade back. Then we get Zadina

 

[DJB]

Get comfortable with one of Zadina, Brady, Dobson, as a Sen!

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Montreal trading down would be bad for us because whoever trades with them for #3 will probably take Zadina.

 

[bdp]

Dorion needs to be sending signals out that we could really use a C. Montreal wants Kotkaniemi and they need to think Ottawa could take him at 4 so they don't trade back. Then we get Zadina

Dorion isn't that shrewd. The only he's likely to leak is a little bit of saliva when someone suggests a Brouwer for Batherson trade.

 

[bdp]

Get comfortable with one of Zadina, Brady, Dobson, as a Sen!

or Bouchard.

 

[Sens in Process]

Montreal trading down would be bad for us because whoever trades with them for #3 will probably take Zadina.

I am not so sure of that anymore.

For example, while Zadina is still very much a consensus top-five pick, relative to the other prospects, five of 10 scouts surveyed by TSN ranked him outside their top five. Five scouts had him in the top five, including three of them at No. 3, but he had three 6’s, a 7 and a 9 as well. That’s a far cry from the mid-season polling, when all of Zadina’s marks came in between 2 and 4.

 

[Micklebot]

It’ll be interesting to come back to this thread once Tkachuk scores 20 points in his rookie season with us. Lawson Crouse 2.0

Or when we pass on him and he goes on to be the best pick outside of the top 2... No matter what happens, the common thread will be the Sens making the wrong decision...

 

[Cat Herder]

Kevin Allen (USA TODAY) Mock Draft

NHL mock draft 2.0: How the first round could shake out

Has us picking Hughes at 4 and Akil Thomas at 22

 

[burf]

Kevin Allen (USA TODAY) Mock Draft

NHL mock draft 2.0: How the first round could shake out

Has us picking Hughes at 4 and Akil Thomas at 22

That would be a great draft. I'd be happy with either Zadina or Hughes at 4. I'm guessing Thomas will be gone by 22, but I'd be happily surprised if he's still there.

 

[bdp]

Thomas would be a disappointing pick at #22. Trade down if you want to pick him.

 

[branch]

I think if Zadina is there you take him, if he's gone you take Kotkaniemi. Tkachuk will go to the desert.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

So 9/10 scouts polled by Mackenzie have Tkachuk in the top 5; only 5 have Zadina in the top 5, with the others placing him 6 (x3), 7, and 9.

By Bobs list, at this point, there is a 2nd tier of Tkachuk, Zadina, Kotkaniemi and Dobson with Tkachuk receiving by far the most top 5 consensus.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Don Brennan's (hey I know) idea was kind of intriguing. Full blow-it-up mode: EK to CAR for 2OA+, Duchene to MTL for 3OA, we give COL our 4th.

We get Svech AND Dobson or Zadina, draft in the bottom 5 next year, profit.

 

[DJB]

or Bouchard.

Or Kotkianemi lol. Or Hughes. Draft is wide open.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Don Brennan's (hey I know) idea was kind of intriguing. Full blow-it-up mode: EK to CAR for 2OA+, Duchene to MTL for 3OA, we give COL our 4th.

We get Svech AND Dobson or Zadina, draft in the bottom 5 next year, profit.

Montreal won't give us 3OA for Duchene. And Carolina might not do that trade either, since Karlsson can't sign an extension at the draft.

 

[Hale The Villain]

probably not that much man.

I doubt Jordan Staal would have went 2nd OVR over Toews/Backstrom/Kessel if he wasn't a Staal

Nor do I think Brandon Sutter would have went 11th OVR over McDonagh/Eller/Shattenkirk if he wasn't a Sutter

Scouts put value on coming from a hockey family. They say such a player has "good bloodlines" and think it makes them a safer bet to play in the NHL. I think that's stupid and should be largely considered an afterthought in the same vein as other intangibles.

No doubt in my mind Tkachuk's name contributes to his high ranking. Just a matter of what degree.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

i wonder how former NCAA stars that have become prominent NHLers did in their rookie NCAA seasons.. would interesting to see if guys with seasons like Tkatchuk's turn out well

I'm just copy pasting my post from April 28th here:

18 year old seasons for recent 1st round picks in NCAA
Ryan Poehling 25th 2017: 35gp, 7 goals, 13 points
Shane Bowers 28th overall 2017: 40GP 17 goals, 32 points
Josh Norris 19th overall 2017: 37GP 8 goals, 23 points
Clayton Keller 2016 7th overall: 31GP, 21 goals, 45 points
Charlie McEvoy (D) 2016 14th overall: 37GP, 3 goals, 25 points
Dante Fabbro (D) 2016 17th overall: 36GP: 7 goals, 18 points
Trent Frederic 2016 29th overall: 30GP: 15 goals, 33 points
Tage Thompson 26th overall: 36GP, 14 goals, 32 points
Tyson Jost 10th overall 2016: 33GP, 16 goals, 35 points
Luke Kunin 15th overall 2016: 34GP, 19 goals, 32 points
Riley Tufte 25th overall 2016 37GP: 9 goals, 16 points
Jack Eichel 2nd overall 2015 40GP: 26 goals, 71 points
Noah Hanafin 5th overall 2015 37GP, 5 goals, 23 point (17 year old season)
Colin White 21st overall 2015 37GP, 19 goals, 43 points
Brock Boeser 23rd overall 2015 42GP 27 goals, 60 points
Jack Roselvic 25th overall 2015 36GP, 10 goals, 26 points
Dylan Larkin 2014 15th overall 35GP, 15 goals, 47 points

*Kyle Connor 17th overall 2015 38gp 35 goals, 71 points (draft +1 in first NCAA season)

Just a comparison to the season Tkachuk had statistically with his 8 goals and 31 points in 40 games. I know stats aren't everything but when you looks at his goal scoring stats vs his peers, its really really scary. Absolutely bottom tier in that regard but would be taken higher than almost all of them.

 

[BigRig4]

Is Tkachuk comparable to Tage Thompson? Super physical and like ~0.8p/pg in his draft year in the NCAA. Still not sure why Tkachuk is being touted as a top 5. Even Bowers had more points in his draft year, and half this board crapped on that pick at 28th.

 

[stempniaksen]

Is Tkachuk comparable to Tage Thompson? Super physical and like ~0.8p/pg in his draft year in the NCAA. Still not sure why Tkachuk is being touted as a top 5. Even Bowers had more points in his draft year, and half this board crapped on that pick at 28th.

Bowers wasn't in the NCAA in his draft year.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Bowers wasn't in the NCAA in his draft year.

He's the same age as Tkachuk though. They started in the NCAA at the same time as 18 year olds on the same team. They're only separated by 2 months.

 

[DJB]

or Bouchard.

Do you think we take Bouchard over Zadina or anyone else at 3?

 

[stempniaksen]

He's the same age as Tkachuk though. They started in the NCAA at the same time as 18 year olds on the same team. They're only separated by 2 months.

I get that, but you can't compare USHL numbers to NCAA numbers, regardless of age.

 

[BigRig4]

Bowers wasn't in the NCAA in his draft year.

Should've double checked the post's info haha. My bad!

 

[Micklebot]

I doubt Jordan Staal would have went 2nd OVR over Toews/Backstrom/Kessel if he wasn't a Staal

Nor do I think Brandon Sutter would have went 11th OVR over McDonagh/Eller/Shattenkirk if he wasn't a Sutter

Scouts put value on coming from a hockey family. They say such a player has "good bloodlines" and think it makes them a safer bet to play in the NHL. I think that's stupid and should be largely considered an afterthought in the same vein as other intangibles.

No doubt in my mind Tkachuk's name contributes to his high ranking. Just a matter of what degree.

So why did Ellerby or Alzner go ahead of McDonagh and Shattenkirk? I mean, if Sutter was only drafted by name, Ellerby and Alzner don't really have that, nor do they have the numbers to clearly rank him ahead do they? I think maybe scouts value different things than you, and with drafting not being an exact science, there will always be examples of players with your preferred qualities turning out better and vice versa.

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely that scouts are having players with bloodlines jump numerous spots in their rankings. It's more likely to me they just value things like defensive game, size, truculence, safe floor, ect more than you.

 

[BondraTime]

So why did Ellerby or Alzner go ahead of McDonagh and Shattenkirk? I mean, if Sutter was only drafted by name, Ellerby and Alzner don't really have that, nor do they have the numbers to clearly rank him ahead do they? I think maybe scouts value different things than you, and with drafting not being an exact science, there will always be examples of players with your preferred qualities turning out better and vice versa.

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely that scouts are having players with bloodlines jump numerous spots in their rankings. It's more likely to me they just value things like defensive game, size, truculence, safe floor, ect more than you.

Scouts definitely look at bloodlines.

I mean I heard that for BO Groulx this year because of his dad, who isn't in the same realm of those famlies.

I don't really know/agree with Sutter, but Staal most definitely was looked at as #2 because of his size and name, and 3 HHOF calibre players were passed due to it.

Tkachuk, while I'm definitely not a proponent of taking him #4 and would rather 4ish guys at that spot, plays a pro game that the Sens lack. We need guys like him so taking him makes sense.

It's a shame we may have to use our highest pick in 2 decades to get a guy to play the role of Simmonds/Wilson/Prime Burrows/etc. Top picsk generally are not for his ilk.

Sens scouts know what they're doing, no use of complaining before the choice is made or the picks game is viewed.