NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[Que]

Don Brennan's (hey I know) idea was kind of intriguing. Full blow-it-up mode: EK to CAR for 2OA+, Duchene to MTL for 3OA, we give COL our 4th.

We get Svech AND Dobson or Zadina, draft in the bottom 5 next year, profit.

If we're going that far let's go full tank and trade Stone for our pick back, trade Ceci for 10th and Hoffman for St. Louis' pick.

Plus drafting 2, 3, 4 would be neat.

 

[Micklebot]

Is Tkachuk comparable to Tage Thompson? Super physical and like ~0.8p/pg in his draft year in the NCAA. Still not sure why Tkachuk is being touted as a top 5. Even Bowers had more points in his draft year, and half this board crapped on that pick at 28th.

They only crapped on him because Tolvanen and Kostin were still on the board.

Also, Ignoring that you compared USHL to College, USHL numbers are not great for comparisons. Bowers was taken from a league team while Tkachuk when there played on the developmental team, the skill level of the teams typically isn't close and they way coaches run the dev team is less focused on winning and more focused on long development.

 

[BigRig4]

They only crapped on him because Tolvanen and Kostin were still on the board.

Also, Ignoring that you compared USHL to College, USHL numbers are not great for comparisons. Bowers was taken from a league team while Tkachuk when there played on the developmental team, the skill level of the teams typically isn't close and they way coaches run the dev team is less focused on winning and more focused on long development.

Yeah my bad on the Bowers thing, I didn't think to double check the info on the post I was quoting which was wrong. I'm just super scared about taking Tkachuk so high, especially since it means we forfeit our pick next year.

 

[branch]

Scouts definitely look at bloodlines.

I mean I heard that for BO Groulx this year because of his dad, who isn't in the same realm of those famlies.

I don't really know/agree with Sutter, but Staal most definitely was looked at as #2 because of his size and name, and 3 HHOF calibre players were passed due to it.

Tkachuk, while I'm definitely not a proponent of taking him #4 and would rather 4ish guys at that spot, plays a pro game that the Sens lack. We need guys like him so taking him makes sense.

It's a shame we have to use our highest pick in 2 decades to get a guy to play the role of Simmonds/Wilson/Prime Burrows/etc. Top picsk generally are not for his ilk.

Sens scouts know what they're doing, no use of complaining before the choice is made or the picks game is viewed.

Or we defer pick to Colorado this year, and most likely pick in this range next year. The "admitting to the fanbase that we're gonna suck" argument is so stupid. It's basically staying together for the kids and we know how that plays out usually.

 

[Micklebot]

Scouts definitely look at bloodlines.

I mean I heard that for BO Groulx this year because of his dad.

I don't really know/agree with Sutter, but Stall most definitely was looked at as #2 because of his size and name and 3 HHOF calibre players were passed due to it.

Size I think is the big thing, and I agree that bloodlines are talked about, I just don't think guys are jumping a ton of spots just because of bloodlines. It's also not like Toews, Backstrom and Kessel were seen as sure fire HOF candidates when drafted. Heck, CS had Brassard ahead of Kessel for example and Mueller right behind him.

I also think GM's probably hadn't yet figured out the new post lockout NHL. Perhaps in the old clutch and grab era Staal turns out relatively better.

 

[Sensinitis]

Anyone see Bob's final rankings?

 

[Hale The Villain]

So why did Ellerby or Alzner go ahead of McDonagh and Shattenkirk? I mean, if Sutter was only drafted by name, Ellerby and Alzner don't really have that, nor do they have the numbers to clearly rank him ahead do they? I think maybe scouts value different things than you, and with drafting not being an exact science, there will always be examples of players with your preferred qualities turning out better and vice versa.

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely that scouts are having players with bloodlines jump numerous spots in their rankings. It's more likely to me they just value things like defensive game, size, truculence, safe floor, ect more than you.

Alzner and Ellerby went so high because of a different league-wide scouting error - drafting limited offensive upside D high. McDonagh was a guy like that too but he was a rare exception of such a player working out.

Also I didn't say that good bloodlines raises a player numerous spots in the rankings, but I think could absolutely push a guy up a couple picks. Impossible to determine how many spots, but you can tell from how much scouts talk about his family that they value him being a Tkachuk, and that value will obviously be taken into consideration come draft day.

 

[BondraTime]

Size I think is the big thing, and I agree that bloodlines are talked about, I just don't think guys are jumping a ton of spots just because of bloodlines. It's also not like Toews, Backstrom and Kessel were seen as sure fire HOF candidates when drafted. Heck, CS had Brassard ahead of Kessel for example and Mueller right behind him.

I also think GM's probably hadn't yet figured out the new post lockout NHL. Perhaps in the old clutch and grab era Staal turns out relatively better.

No, but all 3 guys were viewed as having much higher ceilings. I'd have been disapointed with that pick (Pens can't complain, already had 2 of the best C's on the planet)

From a STATISTICAL ONLY perspective:

Staal had 68 points in 68 games and 16 points in 19 playoff games.
(Barrett Hayton has 60 points in 63 games and 21 points in 24 playoff games, his closest comparison in this draft)

Kessel had 18 goals, 51 points in 39 games in the NCAA (No comparable this year)
Toews had 22 goals and 39 points in 42 games as a grade 12 kid in College. (No comparable this year)
Backstrom had 10 goals and 26 points in the SEL. (No comparable this year)

 

[bdp]

Do you think we take Bouchard over Zadina or anyone else at 3?

I think their list goes something like this:

1. Zadina
2. Bouchard
3. Tkachuk
4. Boqvist

With some degree of interest in Hugues and Dobson after that.

 

[DJB]

I think their list goes something like this:

1. Zadina
2. Bouchard
3. Tkachuk
4. Boqvist

With some degree of interest in Hugues and Dobson after that.

Thanks very much appreciate that info.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

How do you guys feel about Ryan Mccleod at #22. A smooth skating play making center. Bobby Mac's final rankings have him at #22 as well.

 

[Micklebot]

No, but all 3 guys were viewed as having much higher ceilings. I'd have been disapointed with that pick (Pens can't complain, already had 2 of the best C's on the planet)

Staal had 68 points in 68 games and 16 points in 19 playoff games.
(Barrett Hayton has 60 points in 63 games and 21 points in 24 playoff games, his closest comparison in this draft)

Kessel had 18 goals, 51 points in 39 games in the NCAA
Toews had 22 goals and 39 points in 42 games as a grade 12 kid in College.
Backstrom had 10 goals and 26 points in the SEL.

I think the big factor was more size than name. This is the same timeframe that saw the rangers pick Jessiman 12th when Stempniak was the leading scorer of the same team and was drafted in the 5th round. Teams buy into the big power forwards take longer to develop idea, which plays a role in Tkachuk being ranked where he is imo. Right or wrong, size goes a long way in scouts minds, it's why Crouse went so high, but Tkachuk adds a lot of skill while having lots of size too.

Maybe Tkachuk is ranked too high at 4th, but imo it's far more because of his size and play style than it is his name.

 

[BondraTime]

If they Habs swap with Arizona I'd love to be able to grab Kotkaniemi.

A: He'd be a great pick

B: Would make Montreal look even worse

 

[R2010]

I think their list goes something like this:

1. Zadina
2. Bouchard
3. Tkachuk
4. Boqvist

With some degree of interest in Hugues and Dobson after that.

Speaking of this topic. All the top 12 received one vote (at least) in the top 5. Here is the details
Bob McKenzie's list goes:
1. Dahlin (Unanimous)
2. Svechnikov (Unanimous)
3. Tkachuk (9/10 scouts have him top 5)
4. Zadina (5/10 scouts have him top 5)
5. Kotkaniemi
6. Dobson (4/10 scouts have him top 5)
7. Bouchard
8. Hughes (scouts range: 3-11)
9. Wahlstrom
10. Boqvist (scouts range: 5-14)
11. Hayton
12. Kravtsov
13. Smith
14. Veleno
15. Denisenko
16. Kaut
17. Farabee
18. Bokk
19. Noel
20. Kupari
21. Lundestrom
22. McLeod
23. Dellandrea
24. Miller
25. Wilde
26. McIsaac
27. Sandin
28. Thomas
29. Foudy
30. Alexeyev
31. Samuelsson

 

[R2010]

I think their list goes something like this:

1. Zadina
2. Bouchard
3. Tkachuk
4. Boqvist

With some degree of interest in Hugues and Dobson after that.

So if the Sens have Dobson that far down the list, they're one of the few teams that do...

Also Bob's rankings really blow a massive hole in the Zadina is #3 for sure narrative...

 

[Sens in Process]

When you to the listen to the Bobcast, he seems more certain Zadina remains in the top 5 than Tkachuk, which seems to fly in the face of his consensus rankings. He actually says, paraphrasing, "I would lay big money on Zadina being selected in the top 5, and Tkackuk will probably go top 5." The only way he could have any certainty is if he has access to Ottawa and/or Arizona's respective lists. He has much better access to Ottawa, with TSN covering their regular season games, so it wouldn't surprise me if our beloved team provided a list.

I think Ottawa goes Zadina.

 

[Daffy]

How do you guys feel about Ryan Mccleod at #22. A smooth skating play making center. Bobby Mac's final rankings have him at #22 as well.

Please no

 

[DJB]

How do you guys feel about Ryan Mccleod at #22. A smooth skating play making center. Bobby Mac's final rankings have him at #22 as well.

To be honest not a fan. Im not a fan of his brother who was drafted higher and Ryan Ian as good. I think they all lack hockey sense to be honest. Id prefer to go a different route but that's just me.

 

[bdp]

When you to the listen to the Bobcast, he seems more certain Zadina remains in the top 5 than Tkachuk, which seems to fly in the face of his consensus rankings. He actually says, paraphrasing, "I would lay big money on Zadina being selected in the top 5, and Tkackuk will probably go top 5." The only way he could have any certainty is if he has access to Ottawa and/or Arizona's respective lists. He has much better access to Ottawa, with TSN covering their regular season games, so it wouldn't surprise me if our beloved team provided a list.

I think Ottawa goes Zadina.

Makes a lot of sense.

 

[Hale The Villain]

How do you guys feel about Ryan Mccleod at #22. A smooth skating play making center. Bobby Mac's final rankings have him at #22 as well.

Has top 6 quality tools: good size at 6'2, 200lbs, great skating ability, hard shot, good hands.

I question his hockey sense. He's been completely invisible in some of the games I've watched. Doesn't get as nearly as much out of his tools as he should. He's also quite soft and doesn't get involved physically enough for a kid of his size.

I have him outside the 1st round. Should be better options at 22.

 

[Hale The Villain]

So if the Sens have Dobson that far down the list, they're one of the few teams that do...

Which is weird, considering he's exactly the type of player they usually target (fast riser, toolsy, big shot, good hockey IQ, etc...)

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Ahhh okay. Thanks for the responses.

 

[Sens Vader]

5/10 for top 5 on Zadina is surprising in a bad way lol

 

[BondraTime]

5/10 for top 5 on Zadina is surprising in a bad way lol

Not surprising whatsoever

 

[TheBradyBunch]

How do you guys feel about Ryan Mccleod at #22. A smooth skating play making center. Bobby Mac's final rankings have him at #22 as well.

I see him as a good 3rd liner but probably not more. Matt Cullen type player if things go well.

I don't think he'd be a terrible pick but there should be better players on the board at 22.