Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 4.25.19)

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

He doesn’t have higher potential than Chytil either

I would comfortably say that Chytil, Kravstov, and Miller are a clear step above Fox. I think Howden will end up just as valuable if not more so in the long run. Andersson, we’ll see, I don’t know how I feel about him right now. Just gonna let that one play itself out.

Anyway, I wouldn’t come close to offering two 2nds and a b prospect for Fox. I remember Erixon being much more hyped, not to mention the fact that he was playing in a Mens leaugue while Fox is playing at an NCAA program not known for churning out stud NHL players. Sucks that he busted, but he was very highly regarded at the time.

I would be okay with Tampa’s 2nd, or our 3rd if Tampa wins the cup.

 

[JHS]

I don't know if we've had too many boom or bust types though.

I think when we've had guys with first line potential we've been pretty open about it - Zibanejad, Kravtsov, possibly Miller and ADA, Cherepanov, others over the years.

But I don't know if we've ever had too many guys who came in and screamed star. If we're talking home grown, there's Lundqvist...a pretty good gap and maybe...McD?

And then who do we really have after that from a developed standpoint? Maybe Kreider? Maybe Stepan?

Even during our window, our team was basically Lundqvist as the main star, a few guys who were brought in to be stars, and a likeable support cast.

In fact that's one of the main criticisms of the Rangers, that they didn't really take a ton of boom/bust guys.

This is one of my biggest concerns about this rebuild. The Rangers scouting department has essentially remained unchanged for the past 10 plus years. Even during the major run, they seemed unable to find really good talent in the later rounds and even the so called great talent really was not actually all that great. Now these are the same guys making the decisions about the rebuild and I’m seriously doubtful of their abilities.

 

[pblawr]

I would comfortably say that Chytil, Kravstov, and Miller are a clear step above Fox. I think Howden will end up just as valuable if not more so in the long run. Andersson, we’ll see, I don’t know how I feel about him right now. Just gonna let that one play itself out.

Anyway, I wouldn’t come close to offering two 2nds and a b prospect for Fox. I remember Erixon being much more hyped, not to mention the fact that he was playing in a Mens leaugue while Fox is playing at an NCAA program not known for churning out stud NHL players. Sucks that he busted, but he was very highly regarded at the time.

I would be okay with Tampa’s 2nd, or our 3rd if Tampa wins the cup.

The Athletic, ESPN, and TSN all have Fox above Miller. TSN has Fox 12th while Miller isn't even on the list. Obviously, those are just opinions, but at the very least Miller is not a clear step above Fox, and if anything, it's the other way around.

It seems to me like a lot of people are sleeping on how good Fox could be.

He might have the most offensive skill of any defenseman outside the NHL:
- He led all players, including forwards, in the NCAA with 1.5 ppg. That was better than Cale Maker, ESPN's #1 overall prospect, and Quinn Hughes, The Athletic's #1 overall prospect.
- His 1.5 ppg was 50% higher than the next best guy on his team and he contributed on almost 50% of Harvard's goals. As a point of comparison, Quinn Hughes contributed to 30% of Michigan's goals.

People knock his defensive ability because he is undersized and isn't an exceptional skater, but the data on his neutral zone defense indicates he could be very good defensively. His break up percentage was almost 50% and only 25% of the other team's zone entries were successful with him on the ice. Those are elite numbers.

Watch his defensive plays at the end of this video:



Obviously, you don't give up a lot for him unless you are sure he's going to sign, but a player like that is worth way more than 2 2nd's and a B prospect.

 

[bl02]

The Athletic, ESPN, and TSN all have Fox above Miller. TSN has Fox 12th while Miller isn't even on the list. Obviously, those are just opinions, but at the very least Miller is not a clear step above Fox, and if anything, it's the other way around.

It seems to me like a lot of people are sleeping on how good Fox could be.

He might have the most offensive skill of any defenseman outside the NHL:
- He led all players, including forwards, in the NCAA with 1.5 ppg. That was better than Cale Maker, ESPN's #1 overall prospect, and Quinn Hughes, The Athletic's #1 overall prospect.
- His 1.5 ppg was 50% higher than the next best guy on his team and he contributed on almost 50% of Harvard's goals. As a point of comparison, Quinn Hughes contributed to 30% of Michigan's goals.

People knock his defensive ability because he is undersized and isn't an exceptional skater, but the data on his neutral zone defense indicates he could be very good defensively. His break up percentage was almost 50% and only 25% of the other team's zone entries were successful with him on the ice. Those are elite numbers.

Watch his defensive plays at the end of this video:



Obviously, you don't give up a lot for him unless you are sure he's going to sign, but a player like that is worth way more than 2 2nd's and a B prospect.

He’s got two full years on k’André which is huge but agree with your post overall

 

[pblawr]

He’s got two full years on k’André which is huge but agree with your post overall

Yeah, I like K'Andre a lot and was lobbying for him to be the #3 prospect in our latest poll, so my post wasn't intended to be anti-K'Andre by any means. I just think the idea that Fox isn't a very high end prospect who is worth way more than a couple second round picks is misguided.

 

[bl02]

Yeah, I like K'Andre a lot and was lobbying for him to be the #3 prospect in our latest poll, so my post wasn't intended to be anti-K'Andre by any means. I just think the idea that Fox isn't a very high end prospect who is worth way more than a couple second round picks is misguided.

Would they take a 2nd this year and a 4th next year or 2nd and 3rd? Not sure if their is much off our roster they would want that wouldn’t hurt us present and future ?

 

[pblawr]

Would they take a 2nd this year and a 4th next year or 2nd and 3rd? Not sure if their is much off our roster they would want that wouldn’t hurt us present and future ?

I think something based around one of our non-Miller LD prospects could make sense. We don't have room for Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov, and Reunanen as it is and that's before you add Miller or any D we would draft this year into the equation. That would also give Carolina a player who is close to NHL ready and would fit their roster needs better than Fox, even if they wouldn't be quite as good.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think something based around one of our non-Miller LD prospects could make sense. We don't have room for Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov, and Reunanen as it is and that's before you add Miller or any D we would draft this year into the equation. That would also give Carolina a player who is close to NHL ready and would fit their roster needs better than Fox, even if they wouldn't be quite as good.

Is Carolina really interested in a D-prospect though? If I was Carolina, I would ask for a F-prospect considering their depth on the blueline. I saw names like Gettinger and Barron and those are probably the only ones they'd be interested in together with Lettieri. The others we either don't want to part with (Lias, Chytil, Howden) or won't be enticing enough for them (Gropp, Pajuniemi, Ronning)

 

[Matz03]

I think something based around one of our non-Miller LD prospects could make sense. We don't have room for Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov, and Reunanen as it is and that's before you add Miller or any D we would draft this year into the equation. That would also give Carolina a player who is close to NHL ready and would fit their roster needs better than Fox, even if they wouldn't be quite as good.

I don't understand why someone who's decided to go the ufa route would warrant us losing assets for. He is absolutely not worth a 2nd, let alone multiple 2nd's or some of our better lefty D. Not because he isn't an extremely intriguing prospect, but because Carolina has no leverage. There is no market for him either if he's narrowed down his list of teams to a certain NYC team. Kevin Hayes was a really nice pickup, lets get Fox that same way. It's insane to offer a promising D like Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov or Reunanen in this scenario to a team with no leverage and no market for Fox.

 

[Edge]

I’m seeing rankings associated with Fox, but weren't we also just seeing stories with people pegging him more as a second pairing type with some questions as to just how the offensive output will be?

These forum moves so fast, it can be hard to find certain posts. They get buried so fast.

 

[pblawr]

Is Carolina really interested in a D-prospect though? If I was Carolina, I would ask for a F-prospect considering their depth on the blueline. I saw names like Gettinger and Barron and those are probably the only ones they'd be interested in together with Lettieri. The others we either don't want to part with (Lias, Chytil, Howden) or won't be enticing enough for them (Gropp, Pajuniemi, Ronning)

That's total speculation on my part. It would seem very convenient for us, but you're probably right that someone like Barron would make more sense for him.

 

[pblawr]

I don't understand why someone who's decided to go the ufa route would warrant us losing assets for. He is absolutely not worth a 2nd, let alone multiple 2nd's or some of our better lefty D. Not because he isn't an extremely intriguing prospect, but because Carolina has no leverage. There is no market for him either if he's narrowed down his list of teams to a certain NYC team. Kevin Hayes was a really nice pickup, lets get Fox that same way. It's insane to offer a promising D like Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov or Reunanen in this scenario to a team with no leverage and no market for Fox.

Yeah, by all means we should get him for as little as possible. But as long as we're not talking about giving up firsts or A prospects, we should make sure we're going to get him if we can. The idea of giving up 2 2nd's or another D prospect or whatever is if he has multiple teams on his list we have to bid against or if we weren't sure we'd still be able to get him in a year or something like that.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

People knock his defensive ability because he is undersized and isn't an exceptional skater, but the data on his neutral zone defense indicates he could be very good defensively. His break up percentage was almost 50% and only 25% of the other team's zone entries were successful with him on the ice. Those are elite numbers.



Obviously, you don't give up a lot for him unless you are sure he's going to sign, but a player like that is worth way more than 2 2nd's and a B prospect.

Where did you get these numbers?

 

[pblawr]

Where did you get these numbers?

"His consistency as a puck-mover and his stranglehold on the neutral zone deserve more credit than his flash. If we’re keeping score, both deserve more credit than any of the so-called bounces.

Those four-point nights might rope you in, then when you start watching Fox play you’re captivated by so much else.

As mystified as the rest of us, The Athletic’s J.D. Burke tracked four of his games this season. Turns out he was as much of a menace in the neutral zone as he is on the scoresheet.

His defensive numbers from No Man’s Land, at 5-on-5:

Controlled Entries Allowed Percentage: 25 percent
Uncontrolled Entries Allowed Percentage: 28 percent
Break-up Percentage: a whopping 46 percent (!)"

Things to know about Adam Fox: He gets points at a crazy...

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

"His consistency as a puck-mover and his stranglehold on the neutral zone deserve more credit than his flash. If we’re keeping score, both deserve more credit than any of the so-called bounces.

Those four-point nights might rope you in, then when you start watching Fox play you’re captivated by so much else.

As mystified as the rest of us, The Athletic’s J.D. Burke tracked four of his games this season. Turns out he was as much of a menace in the neutral zone as he is on the scoresheet.

His defensive numbers from No Man’s Land, at 5-on-5:

Controlled Entries Allowed Percentage: 25 percent
Uncontrolled Entries Allowed Percentage: 28 percent
Break-up Percentage: a whopping 46 percent (!)"

Things to know about Adam Fox: He gets points at a crazy...

Thanks.

Four games is not a heck of a sample size, but those numbers are very good.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

My favorite part from that article

“I know people think I have some plan to sign with the Rangers because of where I grew up.”

Yeah Adam, I think those people may have been right.

 

[pblawr]

Thanks.

Four games is not a heck of a sample size, but those numbers are very good.

Np. Here are the rest of their #'s:

Controlled Entry Percentage: 42%
Uncontrolled Entry Percentage: 42%
Failed Entry Percentage: 16%

Controlled Exit Percentage: 56%
Uncontrolled Exit Percentage: 16%
Direct Failed Exit Percentage: 10%
Those numbers generated off of 48 D-Zone touches (they don't always lead to exits, hence the numbers not making 100)

PNHLe puts him right in the middle of Cale Makar, Rasmus Sandin, Erik Brannstrom, and Quinn Hughes.

()

Just as a point of reference, Fox's 76 PNHLe compares to 84 for Dahlin and 81 for Heiskanen last year.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Np. Here are the rest of their #'s:

Controlled Entry Percentage: 42%
Uncontrolled Entry Percentage: 42%
Failed Entry Percentage: 16%

Controlled Exit Percentage: 56%
Uncontrolled Exit Percentage: 16%
Direct Failed Exit Percentage: 10%
Those numbers generated off of 48 D-Zone touches (they don't always lead to exits, hence the numbers not making 100)

PNHLe puts him right in the middle of Cale Makar, Rasmus Sandin, Erik Brannstrom, and Quinn Hughes.

()

Just as a point of reference, Fox's 76 PNHLe compares to 84 for Dahlin and 81 for Heiskanen last year.

I hate PNHLe as its rarely accurate but I'm not the least bit concerned about his ability to produce at the NHL level, at least on the PP.

The ECAC is a looonnngggggg shot from the NHL but those numbers are encouraging for sure. If they hold strong as he goes pro, he'd make a wonderful partner for Miller, who is a neutral zone God.

 

[nyr2k2]

Sorry if this was already posted, but from today's 31 Thoughts:

11. Double-checked with the NHL. NCAA Harvard’s Adam Fox cannot sign elsewhere for this season even if traded by Carolina. He can still be traded, however, and the game of poker is about 2019-20. If the Hurricanes do not deal him, Fox can a) join them or b) go back to school, becoming a free agent after next season. A few teams have checked in, saying GM Don Waddell is asking a high price.

The problem is, a lot of them suspect this is about the Rangers, who wouldn’t feel the need to pay big under those circumstances. If Fox is considering anyone else, it’s a small list and probably close to Manhattan.

31 Thoughts: NHL-backed women's league the 'obvious solution' - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Beacon]

If you can add Fox for less than 2 2nd's and a B prospect, you definitely do that, but it seems really foolish to me to risk screwing up the addition of a potentially elite 21 year old player over a pick that has a 25% chance (or less) of turning into any kind of NHL player or a prospect whose upside is playing on the 3rd line. For all the griping about our lack of elite talent, you would think people would be a little more willing to give up depth assets for guy who has a chance to be elite.

Literally came to write this.

A second rounder has a 20% chance or making the NHL, but under 10% to become average or better, rather than a role player with little to no trade value. The odds of 1 of 2 seconds making it as an average player or better are under 20%. The odds of both making it as average players or better are like 1%.

The odds of Fox being a first or second pair D are what? At least 50-50? Probably more.

We always demand more prospects with a high ceiling. If you have to give up 2 non-firsts to get a prospect like that, you do it.

 

[Joey Bones]

Np. Here are the rest of their #'s:

Controlled Entry Percentage: 42%
Uncontrolled Entry Percentage: 42%
Failed Entry Percentage: 16%

Controlled Exit Percentage: 56%
Uncontrolled Exit Percentage: 16%
Direct Failed Exit Percentage: 10%
Those numbers generated off of 48 D-Zone touches (they don't always lead to exits, hence the numbers not making 100)

PNHLe puts him right in the middle of Cale Makar, Rasmus Sandin, Erik Brannstrom, and Quinn Hughes.

()

Just as a point of reference, Fox's 76 PNHLe compares to 84 for Dahlin and 81 for Heiskanen last year.

PNHLe is bullshit.... That same ranking has Miller at No. 33 (a 59 in PNHLe) and Kravtsov at f***ing No. 88 (a 49 in PNHLe). Kravtsov did what he did in arguably the 2nd best league after the NHL. Fox, Miller and even the list's No. 1, Ryan Merkly are in junior leagues. It makes no sense....

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Miller is 18 and arguably better than Fox already on a better program playing against better players.

Oh, and he has the toolbox of a greek god and the brain to go with it. Start hyping him up, boys. He’s gonna be truly special. Fox’s upside isn’t in the same stratosphere. Potentially a very good player, but Miller’s upside is limitless.

 

[nyr2k2]

Literally came to write this.

A second rounder has a 20% chance or making the NHL, but under 10% to become average or better, rather than a role player with little to no trade value. The odds of 1 of 2 seconds making it as an average player or better are under 20%. The odds of both making it as average players or better are like 1%.

The odds of Fox being a first or second pair D are what? At least 50-50? Probably more.

We always demand more prospects with a high ceiling. If you have to give up 2 non-firsts to get a prospect like that, you do it.

While true, this ignores the fact that a pick at the beginning of round two is more valuable and likely to succeed than a pick at the end of round two, or the middle of the round for that matter. Not all picks in the same round are created equally. You use the generic term "non-firsts"; again, that matters as well. The 26th pick in the draft isn't much more valuable in terms of producing above-average players than the 36th pick. So, where do we draw the line on "non-firsts"?

We also have two conditional seconds. They could conceivably (one more plausibly than the other) become firsts. But again, late firsts. Is it okay to move those? Repeating myself, it matters where the picks are. This is reminiscent of the arguments everyone used to get into with you where you boil everything down to a large generalization and don't bother to address the nuance. It's just, 20% this, 10% that, ignoring some pretty important factors.

Also, I don't know where you get that Fox is 50/50 or better. Your other numbers are derived from actual, verifiable, quantitative analysis. Then you throw that in there, which is...your own estimation, I suppose?

Unsurprisingly, I don't even really disagree with your overall point. But while your conclusion is generally anodyne, the way you get there is fraught with some pretty faulty statements and assumptions.

 

[Beacon]

While true, this ignores the fact that a pick at the beginning of round two is more valuable and likely to succeed than a pick at the end of round two, or the middle of the round for that matter. Not all picks in the same round are created equally. You use the generic term "non-firsts"; again, that matters as well. The 26th pick in the draft isn't much more valuable in terms of producing above-average players than the 36th pick. So, where do we draw the line on "non-firsts"?

A couple years ago, TSN counted the odds and late first rounders had a 75-80% chance of being a 4th liner or a minor leaguer. Presumably #36 has worse odds than that. If we give up #36 and #50, what are the odds we would've gotten an above average NHLer?

 

[Levitate]

Sorry if this was already posted, but from today's 31 Thoughts:

11. Double-checked with the NHL. NCAA Harvard’s Adam Fox cannot sign elsewhere for this season even if traded by Carolina. He can still be traded, however, and the game of poker is about 2019-20. If the Hurricanes do not deal him, Fox can a) join them or b) go back to school, becoming a free agent after next season. A few teams have checked in, saying GM Don Waddell is asking a high price.

The problem is, a lot of them suspect this is about the Rangers, who wouldn’t feel the need to pay big under those circumstances. If Fox is considering anyone else, it’s a small list and probably close to Manhattan.

31 Thoughts: NHL-backed women's league the 'obvious solution' - Sportsnet.ca

Why can he not sign elsewhere for this season? Is he basically saying he can't sign and burn a year of contract since the season is almost over? If he wanted to sign and turn pro for next year surely he could do that if he was traded