Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 4.25.19)

[NYR Viper]

I'd be totally fine moving a 2nd rounder for Fox right now. He's better than pretty much anyone at that sot right now.

Also, that SHOULD mean, Gorton could use Pionk and/or Shattenkirk to return some assets in the off-season as Fox isn't coming to NY to play in Hartford for an extended period of time

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

So from what i’ve been told Calle Själin is skating again but is unlikely to play again this season. Annoying ending (and start) to a really good season for him.

 

[Beacon]

By all, means if we can get Fox for a 2 or 3, that's great. But if I come here and see a confirmed trade of Fox for a similar package to Erixon (a pair of seconds and a B prospect), I'm happy. We need high end potential prospects and Fox is it.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Would be a horrific trade given the circumstances

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'd be totally fine moving a 2nd rounder for Fox right now. He's better than pretty much anyone at that sot right now.

Also, that SHOULD mean, Gorton could use Pionk and/or Shattenkirk to return some assets in the off-season as Fox isn't coming to NY to play in Hartford for an extended period of time

I wouldn't.

Our own 2nd for 2019 will be pretty high and the others we have can both turn into 1sts.

There is very little leverage on the part of Carolina as I'm sure our guys are content to wait this out another year and just sign him when he finishes his Senior season.

I'd give them Dallas' 3rd, thats it.

 

[Miamipuck]

I wouldn't.

Our own 2nd for 2019 will be pretty high and the others we have can both turn into 1sts.

There is very little leverage on the part of Carolina as I'm sure our guys are content to wait this out another year and just sign him when he finishes his Senior season.

I'd give them Dallas' 3rd, thats it.

I would not give them a conditional pick that can turn into a first.

 

[nyr2k2]

Seriously, unless it's a situation where the guy literally says, "I want to sign with and play for the Rangers," (like Erixon), you can't give up legitimate value. If you don't know for certain that he wants to sign with you, or if he even wants to sign, it's essentially purchasing a lottery ticket. I'm okay with lottery tickets but not with seconds and other picks that can become first and all that, or with B-prospects. If we're buying a lottery ticket the pick(s) MUST be conditional and I'm not interested in giving up more than a Lettieri-level prospect, who isn't even B-level ast this point.

Unless we know he wants to sign with us. That's it. Because then it's not a lottery ticket, it's trading assets for more of a sure thing. We're rebuilding and still in the phase where we need to acquire as many assets as possible, and not trade away two or three on a guy who might not even sign with us.

 

[Kovalev27]

I’m not giving up our 2nd it’s too high a pick. You’ll have guys that fell out of the first round avail to you.

I’m not giving up conditional 2nds either not knowing what those turn into. The only thing I’m giving up is a third round pick. If you want to add a C prospect to that because you must. Like Crawley I’m ok with that too.

Otherwise. We wait. We are in no rush.

 

[Tawnos]

can’t we place conditions on the conditional picks? For example, if the 2nd becomes a 1st, Carolina gets a 4th this year and a 2nd next?

 

[Harbour Dog]

Seriously, unless it's a situation where the guy literally says, "I want to sign with and play for the Rangers," (like Erixon), you can't give up legitimate value. If you don't know for certain that he wants to sign with you, or if he even wants to sign, it's essentially purchasing a lottery ticket. I'm okay with lottery tickets but not with seconds and other picks that can become first and all that, or with B-prospects. If we're buying a lottery ticket the pick(s) MUST be conditional and I'm not interested in giving up more than a Lettieri-level prospect, who isn't even B-level ast this point.

Unless we know he wants to sign with us. That's it. Because then it's not a lottery ticket, it's trading assets for more of a sure thing. We're rebuilding and still in the phase where we need to acquire as many assets as possible, and not trade away two or three on a guy who might not even sign with us.

And not only this, but if we know that he wants to sign with us anyway, then we can always wait the one extra year instead of paying an Erixon-like price.

The only leverage that Carolina would have in that scenario is with-holding him from us (a re-building team) for a single season.

 

[Beacon]

I’ll just say that I’m not so sure Fox has 1RD upside

I think the one problem with this forum is that nobody wants to go out on the limb and say someone is a bust or a star. All but 1-2 prospects under the age of 23 have a second pair or second/third line potential with a disclaimer that he can always fail.

Mcdonagh had second pair potential with a chance of busting at the time we acquired him. So did Blake Parlett. You really cant tell the difference between blue chippers and crap prospects based on what you read here, except stats provoke excitement.

Fox definitely has 1RD potential. We dont know if he reaches it, but we also dont know if Chytil or Kratsov will, and neither of them has higher potential than Fox. And Fox play a position that is much harder to fill than either Chytil or Kravtsov.

 

[Beacon]

And not only this, but if we know that he wants to sign with us anyway, then we can always wait the one extra year instead of paying an Erixon-like price.

The only leverage that Carolina would have in that scenario is with-holding him from us (a re-building team) for a single season.

Or they can trade him to someone else. Maybe he likes Miami or Toronto or California.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think the one problem with this forum is that nobody wants to go out on the limb and say someone is a bust or a star. All but 1-2 prospects under the age of 23 have a second pair or second/third line potential with a disclaimer that he can always fail.

Mcdonagh had second pair potential with a chance of busting at the time we acquired him. So did Blake Parlett. You really cant tell the difference between blue chippers and crap prospects based on what you read here, except stats provoke excitement.

Fox definitely has 1RD potential. We dont know if he reaches it, but we also dont know if Chytil or Kratsov will, and neither of them has higher potential than Fox. And Fox play a position that is much harder to fill than either Chytil or Kravtsov.

Yes, that’s the problem with this place.

 

[Beacon]

I'd be totally fine moving a 2nd rounder for Fox right now. He's better than pretty much anyone at that sot right now.

Also, that SHOULD mean, Gorton could use Pionk and/or Shattenkirk to return some assets in the off-season as Fox isn't coming to NY to play in Hartford for an extended period of time

Good point. Shatty can probably bring back a package similar to what we give up. If it basically a 3way trade (even if unofficially and at different times) of Shatty for Fox, that's a huge win for the Rangers.

 

[Drew4u]

I think the one problem with this forum is that nobody wants to go out on the limb and say someone is a bust or a star. All but 1-2 prospects under the age of 23 have a second pair or second/third line potential with a disclaimer that he can always fail.

Mcdonagh had second pair potential with a chance of busting at the time we acquired him. So did Blake Parlett. You really cant tell the difference between blue chippers and crap prospects based on what you read here, except stats provoke excitement.

Fox definitely has 1RD potential. We dont know if he reaches it, but we also dont know if Chytil or Kratsov will, and neither of them has higher potential than Fox. And Fox play a position that is much harder to fill than either Chytil or Kravtsov.

Wouldn't say for sure that Fox has higher potential than Kravstov.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Or they can trade him to someone else. Maybe he likes Miami or Toronto or California.

I was responding to the specific scenario where we know that Fox wants to sign here. Which is the only scenario where we should even slightly consider trading two seconds and a B/C prospect for him...

 

[Beacon]

I was responding to the specific scenario where we know that Fox wants to sign here. Which is the only scenario where we should even slightly consider trading two seconds and a B/C prospect for him...

I agree. I'd do it only with prior permission to talk to him and he agrees to sign. Otherwise I'd do a Vesey to BS type trade.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I agree. I'd do it only with prior permission to talk to him and he agrees to sign. Otherwise I'd do a Vesey to BS type trade.

Vesey to the Sabres type is reasonable, especially considering we have a much better chance of signing the prospect than Buffalo did in that scenario.

If we have permission to talk to him and he is showing interest in other teams, then it may become a bidding war, and we could see a hefty price paid. But there has been absolutely no indication from the Fox camp, or from the media that that is the case. "The Rangers" are all that we ever hear when his name is brought up; back as far as his days as a Calgary prospect. So for now, I'm operating under the assumption that we are a very heavy favourite to be the first NHL team he plays for, and until there is some news to the contrary (which I'd be leaking the hell out of if I was Carolina), there is absolutely no reason to spend any exorbitant amount of assets on a guy that we're probably getting for free in a year.

 

[Edge]

I think the one problem with this forum is that nobody wants to go out on the limb and say someone is a bust or a star. All but 1-2 prospects under the age of 23 have a second pair or second/third line potential with a disclaimer that he can always fail.

Mcdonagh had second pair potential with a chance of busting at the time we acquired him. So did Blake Parlett. You really cant tell the difference between blue chippers and crap prospects based on what you read here, except stats provoke excitement.

Fox definitely has 1RD potential. We dont know if he reaches it, but we also dont know if Chytil or Kratsov will, and neither of them has higher potential than Fox. And Fox play a position that is much harder to fill than either Chytil or Kravtsov.

I don't know if we've had too many boom or bust types though.

I think when we've had guys with first line potential we've been pretty open about it - Zibanejad, Kravtsov, possibly Miller and ADA, Cherepanov, others over the years.

But I don't know if we've ever had too many guys who came in and screamed star. If we're talking home grown, there's Lundqvist...a pretty good gap and maybe...McD?

And then who do we really have after that from a developed standpoint? Maybe Kreider? Maybe Stepan?

Even during our window, our team was basically Lundqvist as the main star, a few guys who were brought in to be stars, and a likeable support cast.

In fact that's one of the main criticisms of the Rangers, that they didn't really take a ton of boom/bust guys.

 

[pblawr]

I agree. I'd do it only with prior permission to talk to him and he agrees to sign. Otherwise I'd do a Vesey to BS type trade.

If you can add Fox for less than 2 2nd's and a B prospect, you definitely do that, but it seems really foolish to me to risk screwing up the addition of a potentially elite 21 year old player over a pick that has a 25% chance (or less) of turning into any kind of NHL player or a prospect whose upside is playing on the 3rd line. For all the griping about our lack of elite talent, you would think people would be a little more willing to give up depth assets for guy who has a chance to be elite.

 

[nyr2k2]

If you can add Fox for less than 2 2nd's and a B prospect, you definitely do that, but it seems really foolish to me to risk screwing up the addition of a potentially elite 21 year old player over a pick that has a 25% chance (or less) of turning into any kind of NHL player or a prospect whose upside is playing on the 3rd line. For all the griping about our lack of elite talent, you would think people would be a little more willing to give up depth assets for guy who has a chance to be elite.

I don't think there's that much resistance to it. I just think there's a "pivot" here that causes people to fall on one side or the other--whether or not there'd be any guarantee or strong indication the guy signs here. If he says he'll sign with us? Sure, give up some actual assets. If he commits to nothing an indicates that he may just go back for a final year then become UFA? It would be crazy to give up a real package for him. I don't think anyone has a problem giving up "depth assets" for a guy that we know we can sign and who has excellent potential. The whole thing centers around whether he's signable for us.

 

[Harbour Dog]

If you can add Fox for less than 2 2nd's and a B prospect, you definitely do that, but it seems really foolish to me to risk screwing up the addition of a potentially elite 21 year old player over a pick that has a 25% chance (or less) of turning into any kind of NHL player or a prospect whose upside is playing on the 3rd line. For all the griping about our lack of elite talent, you would think people would be a little more willing to give up depth assets for guy who has a chance to be elite.

I understand where you're coming from and I'm just splitting hairs here, but 2 2nd rounders give us a 7/16th chance of turning out one NHL player and 1/8th chance of two NHL players.

Here are the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
A) Fox wants to be a Ranger.
B) Fox doesn't want to be a 'Cane, and has a list of teams that he would consider.

In (A), we would be trading a host of assets for nothing.

In (B), we'd be getting a slight step on the competition, but odds are if he has us at the top of the list, we'd get him through FA anyway; and if he doesn't have us at the top, he's going to want to check out FA and see what that top team has to offer.

Fox seems fine with another year of NCAA, and if that's the case he has absolutely no reason not to sign for his top pick of the teams that would have him.

 

[pblawr]

I understand where you're coming from and I'm just splitting hairs here, but 2 2nd rounders give us a 7/16th chance of turning out one NHL player and 1/8th chance of two NHL players.

Here are the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
A) Fox wants to be a Ranger.
B) Fox doesn't want to be a 'Cane, and has a list of teams that he would consider.

In (A), we would be trading a host of assets for nothing.

In (B), we'd be getting a slight step on the competition, but odds are if he has us at the top of the list, we'd get him through FA anyway; and if he doesn't have us at the top, he's going to want to check out FA and see what that top team has to offer.

Fox seems fine with another year of NCAA, and if that's the case he has absolutely no reason not to sign for his top pick of the teams that would have him.

Totally agree with (A) & @nyr2k 's comments. You only give up a bigger package for him if 1) you know he's going to sign and 2) you have to. As far as (B) though, if we knew he would sign with us now if we got him, I would be a little less inclined to put off acquiring him to try to save a 2nd round pick or whatever. A lot could change in a year. He could resent us for not acquiring him or his 2nd favorite team could become more attractive or any number of things that would lead him to consider other options. A year ago Carolina's GM was 99% sure they'd be able to sign him. If you know you can get a guy like him who is a potentially elite 21 yo player on an ELC contract for less than he's worth, I wouldn't risk screwing that up to save a 2nd round pick or something like that.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Totally agree with (A) & @nyr2k 's comments. You only give up a bigger package for him if 1) you know he's going to sign and 2) you have to. As far as (B) though, if we knew he would sign with us now if we got him, I would be a little less inclined to put off acquiring him to try to save a 2nd round pick or whatever. A lot could change in a year. He could resent us for not acquiring him or his 2nd favorite team could become more attractive or any number of things that would lead him to consider other options. A year ago Carolina's GM was 99% sure they'd be able to sign him. If you know you can get a guy like him who is a potentially elite 21 yo player on an ELC contract for less than he's worth, I wouldn't risk screwing that up to save a 2nd round pick or something like that.

Using the Buffalo-Vesey trade as a barometer, if we knew that Fox would sign with us immediately, I'd go up to a 2nd rounder or some equivalent for him.

Speculation Alert: As far as Carolina's GM's comments though, I was very doubtful of those at the time. I don't think Fox ever intended to sign with Calgary or in Carolina. He doesn't seem to be very fickle, and seems to be following a set plan. Whether that is to get his degree and re-assess, or to wait until he can pick a team from a list of suitors. I don't buy that he's waited three years and is now going to suddenly jump the gun and sign somewhere impulsively because we never traded a bunch of assets for him.

 

[Lays]

Wouldn't say for sure that Fox has higher potential than Kravstov.

He doesn’t have higher potential than Chytil either