I don't know, what's a late first rounder? How do they classify a fourth liner? What is the difference in odds between a late first rounder and #36? What is an above-average NHL player? I don't know any of this so I can't answer your question.A couple years ago, TSN counted the odds and late first rounders had a 75-80% chance of being a 4th liner or a minor leaguer. Presumably #36 has worse odds than that. If we give up #36 and #50, what are the odds we would've gotten an above average NHLer?
Regardless, your post didn't really address my point. It actually kind of reinforced it. Incomplete information, assumptions, etc. But, whatever, I don't really care to belabor the earlier points.